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Laworkerbee
07-20-2005, 11:14 PM
China's stealth war on the U.S.
Maj. Gen. Zhu Chenghu of the Chinese People's Liberation Army caused quite a stir last week when he threatened to nuke "hundreds" of American cities if the U.S. dared to interfere with a Chinese attempt to conquer Taiwan.

This saber-rattling comes while China is building a lot of sabers. Although its defense budget, estimated to be as much as $90 billion, remains a fraction of the United States', it is enough to make China the world's third-biggest weapons buyer (behind Russia) and the biggest in Asia. Moreover, China's spending has been increasing rapidly, and it is investing in the kind of systems — especially missiles and submarines — needed to challenge U.S. naval power in the Pacific.

In 1998, an official People's Liberation Army publishing house brought out a treatise called "Unrestricted Warfare," written by two senior army colonels, Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui. This book, which is available in English translation, is well known to the U.S. national security establishment but remains practically unheard of among the general public.

"Unrestricted Warfare" recognizes that it is practically impossible to challenge the U.S. on its own terms. No one else can afford to build mega-expensive weapons systems like the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, which will cost more than $200 billion to develop. "The way to extricate oneself from this predicament," the authors write, "is to develop a different approach."

Their different approaches include financial warfare (subverting banking systems and stock markets), drug warfare (attacking the fabric of society by flooding it with illicit drugs), psychological and media warfare (manipulating perceptions to break down enemy will), international law warfare (blocking enemy actions using multinational organizations), resource warfare (seizing control of vital natural resources), even ecological warfare (creating man-made earthquakes or other natural disasters).

Cols. Qiao and Wang write approvingly of Al Qaeda, Colombian drug lords and computer hackers who operate outside the "bandwidths understood by the American military." They envision a scenario in which a "network attack against the enemy" — clearly a red, white and blue enemy — would be carried out "so that the civilian electricity network, traffic dispatching network, financial transaction network, telephone communications network and mass media network are completely paralyzed," leading to "social panic, street riots and a political crisis." Only then would conventional military force be deployed "until the enemy is forced to sign a dishonorable peace treaty."


This isn't just loose talk. There are signs of this strategy being implemented. The anti-Japanese riots that swept China in April? That would be psychological warfare against a major Asian rival. The stage-managed protests in 1999, after the U.S. accidentally bombed the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade, fall into the same category.

The bid by the state-owned China National Offshore Oil Co., to acquire Unocal? Resource warfare. Attempts by China's spy apparatus to infiltrate U.S. high-tech firms and defense contractors? Technological warfare. China siding against the U.S. in the U.N. Security Council over the invasion of Iraq? International law warfare. Gen. Zhu's threat to nuke the U.S.? Media warfare.

And so on. Once you know what to look for, the pieces fall into place with disturbing ease. Of course, most of these events have alternative, more benign explanations: Maybe Gen. Zhu is an eccentric old coot who's seen "Dr. Strangelove" a few too many times.

The deliberate ambiguity makes it hard to craft a response to "unrestricted warfare." If Beijing sticks to building nuclear weapons, we know how to deal with that — use the deterrence doctrine that worked against the Soviets. But how do we respond to what may or may not be indirect aggression by a major trading partner? Battling terrorist groups like Al Qaeda seems like a cinch by comparison.

This is not a challenge the Pentagon is set up to address, but it's an urgent issue for the years ahead.

More fear mongering? perhaps.I don't get his saying "China the world's third-biggest weapons buyer (behind Russia)". Since when does Russia buy weapons?

Full read here http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-boot20jul20,0,6226256.column

Flagg
07-20-2005, 11:56 PM
In my opinion, the article makes a valid point...that China can not now, or for the foreseeable future even remotely counter US military capabilities head-on.

China has three distinct advantages over the US.

1.) China's leadership have few, if any, restrictions placed on it when developing domestic and foreign policy, unlike US leadership which must bend to the will of, and answer to, US voting constituants.

2.) Because of #1 China can make uncomfortable short term sacrifices in exchange for long-term gain much easier than the US...as US elected officials are hindered by short election cycles and typically short-term focused constituents.

3.) With the US playing(and most importantly PAYING $$$) the role of global cop, China gets a free ride...while a significant portion of US GDP goes towards global security, China can spend it's unpaid share on whatever it likes......so while the US economy is carrying a heavy pack on it's back, China's economy is relatively unencumbered.

I can definitely see China employing economic and media warfare as central themes to any future conflict to which they engage in.

abncougar
07-21-2005, 12:18 AM
In my opinion, the article makes a valid point...that China can not now, or for the foreseeable future even remotely counter US military capabilities head-on.

China has three distinct advantages over the US.

1.) China's leadership have few, if any, restrictions placed on it when developing domestic and foreign policy, unlike US leadership which must bend to the will of, and answer to, US voting constituants.

2.) Because of #1 China can make uncomfortable short term sacrifices in exchange for long-term gain much easier than the US...as US elected officials are hindered by short election cycles and typically short-term focused constituents.

3.) With the US playing(and most importantly PAYING $$$) the role of global cop, China gets a free ride...while a significant portion of US GDP goes towards global security, China can spend it's unpaid share on whatever it likes......so while the US economy is carrying a heavy pack on it's back, China's economy is relatively unencumbered.

I can definitely see China employing economic and media warfare as central themes to any future conflict to which they engage in.

very good points.

CountZero
07-21-2005, 12:28 AM
good points Flagg although ecological warfare with making manmade earthqaukes seemsa bit farfetched

Violet Fashion by Mindy
07-21-2005, 12:38 AM
Not really.

As seen by the disaster on Boxing Day.

If you can get nature to unleash it's full ferocity at a target you know. Alot of damager can be caused.

Imagine if some group planted a nuke on the Canary Islands where that volcano is? if enough of the thing collapses in the sea then SW England, Eastern US seaboard is whipe out along with the key economic centre of the Western World. (this I admit would be near impossible to pull of unless a country sends a suicide team to do the job)

Or plant a nuke in a underwater fault line to rigger an earthquake. Already the Russians, French and US have made such craft that can explore the vast depths of the oceans. Who's to say they can build one that also carrys a nuke with it?

Flagg
07-21-2005, 02:54 AM
Not really.

As seen by the disaster on Boxing Day.

If you can get nature to unleash it's full ferocity at a target you know. Alot of damager can be caused.

Imagine if some group planted a nuke on the Canary Islands where that volcano is? if enough of the thing collapses in the sea then SW England, Eastern US seaboard is whipe out along with the key economic centre of the Western World. (this I admit would be near impossible to pull of unless a country sends a suicide team to do the job)

Or plant a nuke in a underwater fault line to rigger an earthquake. Already the Russians, French and US have made such craft that can explore the vast depths of the oceans. Who's to say they can build one that also carrys a nuke with it?

I'm no seismologist, but I wonder if what you suggest has a high probability of success?

Imagine a nation like China putting together the capability for such an attempted weapon.

It would have a heck of a logistical tail that could potentially be discovered via foreign intelligence activities rendering it ineffective through countermeasures.

If used, and it fails(if we can't predict seismic events with a decent degree of accuracy, how can we expect to create a reliable weapon out of it?) the nation attempting to use it is surely doomed.

If used, and it actually succeeds(which remains to be proven if it's viable) unintended and massive collateral damage would surely bring the wrath of the entire region/planet down upon the aggressor.

Although I believe thinking outside the square is important in trying to prevent fighting the next war with the last war's weapons, I wonder if harnessing seismic events for war still belongs in the realm of science fiction.

Laworkerbee
07-21-2005, 03:40 AM
I'm going to try and find this book and give it a reading ( if I can find it cheap enough ).

" leading to "social panic, street riots and a political crisis." looks to me like they are underestimating Americans again, see us as weak, a paper tiger,etc. That is a dangerous path.

Perhaps the United States should put off buying all this expensive gear without an enemy to use it on. And wait to see what takes form before investing Billions and Billions in aircraft that could become obsolete in a decade.