Will China become a serious threat to the US in the future??

[venture160]

http://www.york.ac.uk/res/dcms/chinese%20flag.jpg
Well it seems as if this comes up alot in the discussion here, I thought a thread about China alone will be a good one. In my opinion it it will not be a serious threat even within the next 75 years.
this is my reasoning from a previous post:

guys, you can rest easy for there won't be any conflict for china for years to come. more than 80% of the country is still poverty ridden, and even at china's growth rate now, it will be until 2070 that they reach our average household income of $33,000. As Josephy Nye says in his book (dean of the kennedy school of havard, the NUMBER ONE school for internationnal relations and politics in the world) "In fact, the rise of china is a misnomer" The asian development bank has determined that China will reach 36% of the US' GDP in about 2025, which equal the size of south korea's economy. RAND corp has predicted that by 2005 China's military will have the equivelant of a western european army had in the early 1980's. Its simple, without a highly developed economy your military isn't going to be going anywhere fast. While China in the next 50-100 years most likely wont be able to challenge the United States on a global level, it may be able to make regional descions without the consent of the USA, such as taking Taiwan back. But that seems unlikely as well, for a military conflict with Tainwan would be devastating to China. Its reputation in Asia would be damaged and as a result economic trade would falter. The only reason why I could see China attacking Taiwan is if it was backed into a corner and forced to attack Taiwan if it declares independance, but that too seems unlikely. But a global coalition, or even a limited one, wouldn't have a whole lot of trouble in ending the conflict. as Joseph Nye says: "

Quote:

How China will behave as its power increases is an open question, but as long as the United States remains present in the region, maintains its relationship with Japan, does not support independence for Taiwan, and exercises its power in a reasonable way, it is unlikely that any country or coalition will successfully challenge its role in the region, much less at the global level. If the United States and China stumble into war or a cold war in East Asia, it will likely be caused bu inept policy related to Taiwan's independence rather than China's success as a global challenger."

I would be interested to know what most of the members here think about this matter, its interesting that according to a recent survey %50 of the general public believes China will be a threat in the next 50 years, while fewer than %20 of scholars do. I guess if enough people believe something is a threat, overtime it will become one, no matter what the real truth is behind the matter. If you want to read up on this matter before you engage in discussion here are some really good books you could look over:
Modernizing China's Military : Progress, Problems, and Prospects
by David Shambaugh
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0520225074/ref=pd_sxp_f/104-4047755-0993538?v=glance&s=books
a good list on amazon of china related security books
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/listmania/list-browse/-/CRWX5SE5VZOP/ref=cm_lm_dp_l_2/104-4047755-0993538

one of the BEST RESOURCES is this page with TONS OF CHINA DOCUMENTS FROM RAND
http://www.rand.org/nsrd/capp/pubs/chinataiwan.html#books

information from the brookings institute :http://www.brook.edu/findresults.htm?Submit=&matches=all&query-type=advanced&fields=any&filter-connector=&filter-type=&filter-text=&simple-date-range=anytime&sections=All&document-types=all&sort-by=date&display-mode=abstract&terms=china

[One?]

Doesn't china depend on the US for its economy?

[RealUltimatePower]

Ya hopefully the US China Bilateral trade agreement will keep the hostilities down. I'm all for fighting wars that are necessary but a nuclear confrontation would most likely result from such a war. And if China is peacefully moving towards a free market economy and better relations internationally I don't see why we'd have to fight em.

[Falco]

Doesn't china depend on the US for its economy?

I was asking myself the same question. I'm pretty sure the US is the major international player in China's economy.

[AFACadet]

I say something big enough is going to happen in the next 20 years that even with all the economic ties, its all going to hit the fan in Asia, and we're going to be in it.


It seems many countries in Asia feel the same way.




They are currently in a very large arms race between eachother.

[2Sheds_Jackson]

It would be against both nations' interests to go to war against each other - the US needs China for cheap finished goods & China needs the exports.

I'm of the opinion that the US & China have a "gentlemens agreement" to conduct an arms race similar to the US/USSR cold war. Nothing but love to the defense industries. Looks like they're also doing a "space race" as well for aerospace.

The defence detpts of both need a bad guy to defend against. Let's all play along & get rich!

[cut]

dean of the kennedy school of havard, the NUMBER ONE school for internationnal relations and politics in the world

bollocks, I study IR and politics and the courses are from all over the place to say that harvard is number one is ignorant.

As for China not becoming a threat to the US for 75 well that is a very hopeful estimate, no-one knows what will happen in the next century, even the best IR scholar can only say what might happen. What this article says is that China won't be able to invade the US for 75 years. Well to be honest most if not all world powers fail because they get bogged down far away from home. Unless the US takes on China in the near future, the US will not be able to take on china in asia. But if the US stays out of asia then china is not a threat, according to the article.

Also the article assumes that the US will hold on to power for the next 75 years, which I think will be hard. The British empire stood for well over 200 years because most of the world was still using spears most of the time as well as being the best bluffers in history. For example if there was trouble in Nigeria all we had to do was send a frigate and that would be enough to scare the whole country into co-operating.

The US can't do that, due to media being available in all countries. (partially thanks to the British Empire and the "white man's burden" which it ultimately fufilled.

[Kitsune]

I, too, think that China has been overestimated somewhat, lately. I do not believe that it can challenge the US globally during the next 50 years.

But on the other side...if China reaches an average household income of 33000$ China will have more money at her disposal than the US...even if America has doubled her own. China will have more 1.5 billion from 2050 onwards! Added to this: The USA are living above their means. Without foreign investments, without having the worlds reserve currency at their disposal the US are not that rich...and this will possibly play a significant role in the near future. (I bet that the US will have a military budget in 2009 that is much smaller than the one of today...but see for yourself.)

But what will bring the US "down" from superpower level is not only economics, but the rise of MORE THAN ONE RIVAL AT THE SAME TIME !
It will not be only China, but also Japan and Russia. But personally I do think that the "greatest threat" to total global US domination will be...the European Union. We do not need to go to 2075 for this...I think even in 2015 we will see it. If I am not totally wrong the USA will have seen serious economic problems by then, a decline of military "hard" power and an overall decline of global imperial power IN RELATION to the rest of the world.

And this will finally result in a mulitpolar world. Not because Chirac wants it :lol: , not because Nye thinks it is a better strategy. Simply because many other nations and region will catch up. I think the USA will then be only economic power Nr.2 behind the EU (considering the present state of the US economy this seems to be likeley for 2015), which is otherwise in many ways weaker (less military capable and always struggling to achieve unity in decisions against unruly Brits, Poles and Spaniards p-) ). But on the military "front" the USA will still be Nr.1. If America still wants to realize the imperial ambitions of the current administration she has to play against many AT THE SAME TIME: in central Asia Russians, Pakistanis and Indians (India will have more inhabitants than China by then) have to be countered, in the Far East the Chinese will make troube, while Japan will probably get more and more self counscious again, in South America there will be possibly an loose, Brazilian-led, coalition of states trying to free themselves of US influence. And all those opponents will very likely align their efforts...and all this while slowly economically catching up to the US year after year. Sooner or later the USA will have to realize that a "dominate the world uniliterally" approach will not work. And the sooner that is the better it will be, especially for the USA itself. I believe that in 2030 no one talks of a monopolar world anymore, although the US will probably in overall power still be Nr.1, but more a "primus inter pares" incapable of dominating the world on their own.

[cut]

And this will finally result in a mulitpolar world. Not because Chirac wants it :lol: , not because Nye thinks it is a better strategy. Simply because many other nations and region will catch up. I think the USA will then be only economic power Nr.2 behind the EU (considering the present state of the US economy this seems to be likeley for 2015), which is otherwise in many ways weaker (less military capable and always struggling to achieve unity in decisions against unruly Brits, Poles and Spaniards p-) ). But on the military "front" the USA will still be Nr.1. If America still wants to realize the imperial ambitions of the current administration she has to play against many AT THE SAME TIME: in central Asia Russians, Pakistanis and Indians (India will have more inhabitants than China by then) have to be countered, in the Far East the Chinese will make troube, while Japan will probably get more and more self counscious again, in South America there will be possibly an loose, Brazilian-led, coalition of states trying to free themselves of US influence. And all those opponents will very likely align their efforts...and all this while slowly economically catching up to the US year after year. Sooner or later the USA will have to realize that a "dominate the world uniliterally" approach will not work. I believe that in 2030 no one talks of a monopolar world anymore, although the US will probably in overall power still be Nr.1, but more a "primus inter pares" incapable of dominating the world on their own.

I hadn't thought of that aspect, you really think other parts of the world are catching up the US economy?

[Skaman]

Economic threat, not military.

[cut]

depends what you mean by threat... if you mean threat to main land US of A then you are probably right, if you mean american assets around the world then I disagree

[venture160]

well nye actually says the the EU in his mind is the most probable global challenger to the united states. Yeah i guess i was being ignornat with my harvard statement you could go on to add, the fletcher school at tufts, woodrow wilson school at UVA, Georgetowns program and johns hopkins, but i would prob end there, the majority of the top positions within the state department etc come right from those schools.

[Kitsune]

For example:

Back during WWII the USA were producing around 45 % of the worlds industrial products. The American industrial production capacity was 4 times as large as the German one, and more than 15 times larger than the Japanese one.

Today the EU has an industrial production capacity which is around 115% of the US, Germanys industry is about 35% of the US one, Japans is about 75 % of the Amrican one (!!!)

If you take the comparative number with regards to S.Korea, China and India you will also see that they have catched up (coming closer to US level while still being far away). Let alone Australia, NZ. The distance to Central and South America has at least not gotten greater. The only exception is Africa (with south Africa very probably an exception to the exception ;) )...this continent was the looser of the 20th century and seems destined face a dark and grim future in the 21st century. :(

[cut]

Sweet, that's made my day, thank you kitsune.

[Operation Ivy]

I dont see China a huge threat to the US, i see China as a threat to India and Japan

[venture160]

I think you can rule out india alone in the world scene by realizing that 2/3rds of its population can't read. While it may become a regional power, it wont go far beyond that.

[cut]

I think you can rule out india alone in the world scene by realizing that 2/3rds of its population can't read. While it may become a regional power, it wont go far beyond that.

it's less than 2/3rds, I taught kids in a poxy village in the middle of nowhere they were all kids of farmers, and their computer skills at the age of 12 were as good as those of a 16 year old in the West, so don't write them off just yet

[Operation Ivy]

I say that cause both countries are growing more powerful and there not really the best of friends :-*$

[Kitsune]

I meant: The EU will probably be a threat to the current (in my opinion rather misguided) American ambitions of superiority and worldwide global dominance. They will very likely be no threat to American security.

[wholagun]

I think as security and competition increase the European states will see that in order to compete they will have to unite or get tossed around. Maybe as soon as 2020. Russia unless it joins the EU will no pose a threat to anyone but will have to watch it back in Asia or lose pressious resource rich land to any one of the Asian Tiger states.

China is right now a sleeping giant - much like US was at the start of WW2 and came out of it the most industrial and richest country on earth. Same thing happened to Russia. They had limmited industrial capability but as the war began and Nazi's began to invade Russias industry got into gear. What Im trying to say is if there is a war and China is involved then watch out cause China could wake up from it somber sleep and catch everyone off guard.

US military spending is huge now - they got the best planes and huge Airforce and Navy - those two aspects are huge in keeping thier power int he world and are a big deterent to any state considering getting out of line. US powerful now - but if the future it will not keep the same economic tight grip as it has now, military yes but also this will diminish as the economic power goes down.

[Ian H]

I think China and India may be the two big powers most likely to come to blows. Both are in the same continent, both have rapidly expanding populations and economies, both have nuclear weapons and no history of confrontation with another superpower to get them into the habit of restraint, and China has sold arms to Pakistan, so it is to a certain extent allied with India's enemy. A three way nuclear war is of course the ultimate nightmare, but since the Himalayas prevent a large scale ground war between the two, maybe the only option should war become inevitable. In theory, any Indo-Pakistani flashpoint could get the Chinese involved if they percieve India to be getting too powerful.

This is of course complete conjecture, but worthy of consideration I think.

Incidentaly, in your discussion of the best IR schools,you all missed out the Interpol Department at Aberystwyth. Its the oldest in the world, and certainly one of the best.

[venture160]

it's less than 2/3rds, I taught kids in a poxy village in the middle of nowhere they were all kids of farmers, and their computer skills at the age of 12 were as good as those of a 16 year old in the West, so don't write them off just yet

according to the UN the literacy rates for Inida are 30% illiteracy among men and 57% among females. thats still a very serious problem.

http://unstats.un.org/unsd/demographic/social/illiteracy.htm

[Flagg]

India:

Although India is likely to continue expanding it's economy at an above-average rate(and absorbing many high-paying white collar jobs at the expense of the US over the next 10-20 years to include positions like lawyers & CPAs, not just software programmers), India is not likely to pose a threat to any nation other than Pakistan.

India is NOT an homogenous country. Internal conflict amongst various enthnic or cultural segments of the population is very high.

China's nuclear buddy Pakistan is a perennial thorn in India's side......wasting resources and effort that could be better spent on economic development.

Also, India's infrastructure is poor at best.

Russia:

Way F'd up now.....will take decades to really gain traction...hopefully Putin can kick Mafia ass and promote foreign investment.

Hopefully progressive ideas like flat taxation will spark growth and allow the Russian people to finally catch the break they deserve.

Keep an eye out for how natural resource development occurs in Siberia....hopefully Russia(land),China(people),Japan(capital) can team up to exploit the opportunities there...little known fact....Siberia was inhabited by enthnic Chinese for a LONG time back in the day.......sovereignty over the huge natural resource deposits could be a problem if China wishes to flex it's muscle.

China:

As I mentioned in a previous post....China has the following advantages:

*Extremely high savings rate(average 30+% compared to US -1%) to fund internal and external investment

*Extremely high infrastructure construction and investment tempo...investing in infrastructure is a proven good investment

*Homogenous population....low likelihood of internal civil conflict holding back growth

*US/China trade imbalance shows in favour of China by $120 Billion according to US govt. figures for 2003 alone.

*China/HK possess over $350 BILLION in currency reserves(bank account)....almost 5 times the amount the US currently has

*China debt $170 Billion, US $7 Trillion

*China has the fastest growing large economy in the world.

*China's leaders aren't hampered with having to make short-term choices to win re-election votes instead of making longer-term choices that could potentially be more beneficial.

MEANWHILE...the US foots the bill for being the global cop while China benefits the most(world's manufacturing centre).....and China has the ability to tie down/misdirect/embarrass the US & neighboring India by it's ability to influence events in North Korea and Pakistan....at little to no real cost....and focus on it's economic growth.

If current trends continue, China will have reached parity with the US in terms of GDP.....this is the best determining factor as to a country's ability to support a sustainable military, but it would apear the Chinese would be happy with owning the world and allowing the US to protect it at US expense.....

I doubt China would even attempt at engaging the US in conflict directly for one major reason.....China's One Child policy has resulted in a "little emperor" syndrome......a parent of an only child will be strongly opposed to initiating a conflict at the cost of their onyl child. An old Chinese saying goes along the lines of "Do not use your best iron for making nails."

With the exception of integrating Taiwan and the Spratley Islands..I don't see China taking the chance at starting a conflict.

Talk about a sweet deal....China's sitting pretty....hopefully they move towards democracy sooner rather than later.

I wonder if Bush is onto a good thing with his Man to Mars project......maybe the next time a US astronaut lands on the Moon and then to Mars his/her first words will be "This is ours!" That would be hysterical.

[AFACadet]

An old Chinese saying goes along the lines of "Do not use your best iron for making nails."

On a semi-related topic:

That was from the Song Dynasty. They had the most advanced military equipment in the world, but they believed that saying, so they got their butts handed to them almost every time they fought.

You can't have an effective military without some of the best in the country in all levels of the military.

[Red]

I beleive that china will become a threat to the US sooner rather than later.

[US_Frogman]

The US and China just have to much bad blood between them. We're not allies today, and I dont see us being allies any time in the near future. The only thing that connects us in any way is our economies.

In many ways, the Cold War never ended between the US and China. It's no secret that we are still having an Intelligence war with China. (Did we ever get our C-130 back???)

I see a very promising future for US/Russian relations. The way it's going, Russia is going to rebuild itself much sooner then many people think. And if they can elect another Putin, I see the US and the Russian Federation becoming very close.

In 15 years, I expect to see a very strong threeway alliance between the US, EU, and Russian Federation.

[[AFSOC]]

China is no longer a threat to us....

China in the coming years will be an allie. China's ideologies are moving to capitalist and away from communism.

We shouldnt worry bout China at all....they make good food too soo big up to them!:)

[StubbyChubs]

From what I've been readng of the EU lately, I don't see it becoming the next super power. Although the EU enjoys 23% (the US 25%) of the world's economic output, in 50 years it's predicted that this will shrink to some 12% while the US will still maintain its 25% economic output it enjoys now (the main reason for this they cite is Europe's dwindling and aging population - compare this to North America's population which is projected to increase from some 300 million to 450-500 million by 2050). Right now the EU is enjoying 0 economic growth (I can't remember a time when the EU enjoyed at least half of US GDP growth), less than half of US productivity, low investment and high unemployment. The prospects of EU overtaking the US economically are not that great. Much of this has already been outlined by the European Commission (http://www.bizreport.com/article.php?art_id=5978).

Until there is far greater unity between the EU countries (even this is questionable http://denbeste.nu/cd_log_entries/2004/01/Europeandisunity.shtml edit:link fixed), I doubt we will be seeing an EU superpower anytime soon. It's China and perhaps India that have the best chances at becoming the next superpower.

[budanski]

As I get older, I feel more and more often like I'm living "Groundhog Day". I have been reading articles and analyses for what seems like an eternity about how the "Common Market", or the "European Economic Community", or the "European Union",or whatever the flavor-of-the-month description of the Europeans happens to be, will ultimately overtake the United States in financial, industrial, and military significance and become the predominant world power. It has never happened, and it will never happen, as long as the Europeans continue to be transfixed by warmed-over Marxism and welfare statism, in any of their configurations. And I see no evidence that they are likely to change in any way for the better in this respect.

And I keep this historical certainty in mind when I hear more and more these days about the rise of the Chinese Dragon, which is more of the same hooey. The Chinese will never overtake the US, either. Not as long as they continue to embrace Marxism in its Red Chinese form, which is very likely. Even the Japanese have reached some sort of economic Peter Principle level of growth, due to their ill-conceived command economy practices. And the Japanese have an economic system more akin to the US model.

If you buy into Kitsune's doom and gloom of the U.S. and emerging greatness of EU, fine. One only has to look up the latest headlines to get a different story. China comes second after the U.S. in purchasing power, beating out even the "mighty" Europeans.

Analysis: Eurosclerosis grips EU economy (http://www.upi.com/view.cfm?StoryID=20040122-010934-4904r)
EU Says Europe Falling Behind on Economy (http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=1203&e=1&u=/ap/20040121/ap_on_bi_ge/eu_economy&sid=95609868)
Europe's economic engine stalls (http://www.euobserver.com/index.phtml?aid=14119)
Brussels to set out why EU is trailing US (http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1073281184586) (for those without a subscription to this article, i'll post it here.)


Brussels to set out why EU is trailing US
George Parker in Brussels

Brussels to set out why EU is trailing US By George Parker in Brussels Published: January 21 2004 4:00 | Last Updated: January 21 2004 4:00

Europe's apparently doomed attempt to overtake the US as the world's leading economy by 2010 will today be laid bare in a strongly worded critique by the European Commission.

The Commission's spring report, the focal point of the March European Union economic summit, sets out in stark terms the reasons for the widening economic gap between Europe and the US.

It cites Europe's low investment, low productivity, weak public finances and low employment rates as among the many reasons for its sluggish performance.

The draft report, to be published by the Commission today, warns that without substantial improvements "the Union cannot catch up on the United States, as our per capita GDP is 72 per cent of our American partner's".

It was four years ago in Lisbon that EU leaders, enthralled by the technology boom, proclaimed their intention to overhaul the US as the world's "most competitive, knowledge-based economy" by 2010.

The Commission's report suggests that such a goal now looks hopelessly ambitious, and will make sobering reading for EU leaders as they prepare for their annual update on progress in meeting the targets set at Lisbon.

In many cases the promises made at Lisbon have not been put into national law by member states, with France, Germany, Belgium and Luxembourg - the biggest enthusiasts for deeper European integration - the worst offenders.

The EU's productivity growth rate has been going down since the mid-1990s and is now fluctuating between 0.5 and 1 per cent, compared with 2 per cent in the US.

The report blames low overall European productivity on a lack of investment and poor use of information technology, and warns that China and India are becoming key competitors.

Europe's low employment rate, especially among workers aged over 55, is described as "worrying indeed", while it is deemed unlikely that the EU will meet its employment rate target of 67 per cent by 2005.

"At the same time, several strategic measures to increase our competitiveness have not got off the ground because of a lack of political will," the report says.

It cites failure to agree basic reforms, such as the introduction of a single community patent or the recognition of professional qualifications across the EU.

Ireland, the holder of the rotating EU presidency, wants to use the spring summit to revive the Lisbon process - an annual ritual which usually fails to deliver the promised results.

The Commission argues that 2004 must see a sharp improvement in EU investment, productivity and competitiveness and reforms to social security systems to bring older people back into the workplace.

"It is not too late, but unless we act decisively now we will not meet our targets," said one official.

The report identifies Austria, Luxembourg, Denmark, the Netherlands, Sweden and the UK as the best overall performers in terms of meeting the Lisbon targets.

France and Germany come in amiddle band, while Greece, Spain, Italy and Portugal are rated as the worst overall performers.

[StubbyChubs]

"Not as long as they continue to embrace Marxism in its Red Chinese form, which is very likely. Even the Japanese have reached some sort of economic Peter Principle level of growth, due to their ill-conceived command economy practices. And the Japanese have an economic system more akin to the US model."

China is no longer communist in all but name. Visit Hong Kong some time and you'll find that the Chinese in some cases are even better capitalists than Americans. The one hope I have for China is that as its population becomes more prosperous, there'll be more calls for democratic reforms. Once true democratic reforms happen in China, there'll be no reason anymore to view China as a threat, at least as a security threat.

[Kitsune]

@Budanski:

LOL.
Over the last decades Europe has consistedly catched up with the US. http://www.economist.com/finance/displayStory.cfm?story_id=1563761
Europe neither has a staggering trade deficit (500 billion and growing) nor a budget deficit that goes up and up (and Bush is talking about an ambitious and expensive space program...ah yes and he wants to lower taxes, too). The USA industry at present could even remotely meet the demand of its own population for industrial products if it had to. And if investments dry up the way like they now you will be in a crisis soon enough. As far as I have read it there is no turning point in sight, the US leadership, both political and economical behave as usual, as if they had infinite ammounts of money at their disposal.
There is absolutely no reason to feel superior or even "safe" (economically) for America. US "growth" rates are not so much higher productivety, they are basically stronger consumption with a good part of "creative" book keeping thrown in. Remember Enron?

But lets just wait and see wether Budanski is still laughing in 2010.

[StubbyChubs]

About American budget deficits: America has been running a deficit of 5% of GDP for 1 year. Europe has been running a deficit of about 4 to 4.5% for almost 4 years. America runs up big deficits during slow-downs, and pays them off during growth spurts. Reagan's deficits were a bigger percentage of GDP than Bush's, and got paid off during the 1990's spurt. America appears to be entering one such spurt now - 8.2% growth! The difference with Europe is that Europe does not have growth spurts, or any growth at all (0-1% for about 4 years now).

Let me just quote what the European commission has to say about Europe's dire long-term prospects:

“Europe is in real economic trouble. Productivity is lower, has been for years, and the gap is widening. Population shrink, shorter hours, early retirement, labour inflexibility, a yawning pensions black hole, the common perception of the ECB as a bail-out fund, and most crucially the failure of European populations to want to face up to any of the problems. All of these mean that Europe is on an accelerating downward path. And it's starting to hit.”

[Kitsune]

@StubbyChubs

The point is not the heigth of the current budget deficit....but that is growing and growing with no change in sight. Bush even wants to enhance spending and reduce taxes!

As for the US paying back debts in a record time...there is a neat trick involved. Since the dollar is the worlds currency, everyone has to pay back his debts in dollars, which places the US in the unique postion of paying in the very currency they control (being a superpower has its advantages). And so you can
1) take on debts
2) make the dollar go down
3) pay back your debts
This is what was done back in Reagans reign. It could be done because the world needs a global currency and there was only the $.

Unfortunately, times have changed. There is now the €. So it will most probably not work again.

Just to set something straight here: I never said that European economy is immaculate. There are a lot of problems, indeed. All I am saying is that the US economy is worse...if there is one economic great power with which something basic is serious wrong it's the US. Its only on the surface that its shiny and nice...but the tendency of the numerous US deficits to rise shows that American economy is not fine at all.

[globe]

China is no longer communist in all but name. Visit Hong Kong some time and you'll find that the Chinese in some cases are even better capitalists than Americans. The one hope I have for China is that as its population becomes more prosperous, there'll be more calls for democratic reforms. Once true democratic reforms happen in China, there'll be no reason anymore to view China as a threat, at least as a security threat.

Hong Kong SAR is an exception, you must agree with me. It's not representative of the rest of PRC since it was a British Colony and therefore capitalistic until recently. After the take over the central government left it pretty much as it is.
Other than that, I totally agree with you. Having been to PRC last year I can certaintly feel and see the differences over the past 10 years. Those of the working age are disillusioned with Marxism and communist ideology which they grew up with. They and the younger generation have happily embraced capitalist ideals (cliche, I know) now and are doing what chinese do best, making money. I couldn't recognise the modern Shanghai now. It looks so much like Hong Kong! The many elegant chinese restaurants serving exotic delicacies, the glamourous hotels and the Italian suits just seem at odd with a communist country. You will be surprised at the number of teutonic imports on the roads too. The only thing that reminds me of the fact that it is still a communist country is the police uniform and it's dinky hat.
Military threat, unlikely. War is not conducive to making money. Economic threat, likely. By threat, I mean, posing a challenge to the US or being in competition with but not necessarily exceeding or being superior to.

[Will.Spencer]

A much better document on this topic than some recommended here is _People's Liberation Army and China in Transition_ by the folks at the National Defense University.

http://www.ndu.edu/inss/books/Books_2003/China/PLA_and_China_Transition.pdf

[cut]

If you buy into Kitsune's doom and gloom of the U.S. and emerging greatness of EU, fine. One only has to look up the latest headlines to get a different story. China comes second after the U.S. in purchasing power, beating out even the "mighty" Europeans.



It's funny how you are determined only to see one side. You will only accept that the US will control the world until the end of time. Well, that's not how it happens every "global" power falls from the top eventually, we're just guessing at which one is the most likely.

The left brings balance to politics, it brings democracy you can't have democracy when an entire form of it is banned.

[budanski]

It's funny how you are determined only to see one side. You will only accept that the US will control the world until the end of time. Well, that's not how it happens every "global" power falls from the top eventually, we're just guessing at which one is the most likely.

The left brings balance to politics, it brings democracy you can't have democracy when an entire form of it is banned.

You preach your garbage around here too.

Folks like Cut and Kitsune arent the first in predicting the U.S's "Fall of Rome" scenario.

Its amazing how only they can see the downfall while economists here, being in the best position with the world's largest economy, have been blind to see and take precautionary steps to slow down our decline. I'm glad theres a few europeans looking out for us. [/sarcasm]

Enron? how about Parmalat?

Sorry for the sloppy ass response, i'll respond more when I get back.
Happy (belated) Chinese New Years Everyone!!!

[Miles Teg]

Yeah! Parmalat affair beat the Enron one! :P

http://www.lepoint.fr/static/afp/francais/journal/une/SGE.DVA28.240104142728.photo00.default-245x169.jpg

happy new year!

[wholagun]

To all the Americans that think that EU is a hasbin and will not be a supper power - well did you guys ever stop and think about how money is spent in the EU

1) EU is funding project all accross poorer EU states - Poland is set to get 8 billon or so in the next 4-5 years if not more (can't rember the exact figure) and thats in Euros. The EU puts money into poorer regions to help them catch up to the richer states.

2) Right now the EU spends a **** load on CAP (common agricultural policy) this takes up 50% of EU budget and is useless. I hope that reform will come in the 2007-2012 EU budget. If we Europeans manage to reform this costly drain on our funds then we will have alot more money to go around.

The EU is good in the sense that it spreads the wealth around so that all feel benifit and all are industrailized not only certain regions this can be transfromed into a powerful war machine int he future.

Right now we can't afford to spend too much money on military and defense because the EU is helping out poorer regions and taking on 10 new poor former soviet states which will cost a **** load. But this will be payed back in dividends once those economies are up to date industial capacity will increase.

[army cadet_ngcsu]

I agree with what others have said in regard to the EU, they will not give up their Marxist welfare systems to produce a military that could even come close to rival that of ours. I am sure that a common EU defence policy is decades away. There are many different countries in EU who view the US differently and would still like to remain allies.

[wholagun]

I agree with what others have said in regard to the EU, they will not give up their Marxist welfare systems to produce a military that could even come close to rival that of ours. I am sure that a common EU defence policy is decades away. There are many different countries in EU who view the US differently and would still like to remain allies.

Decades - Im not sure it will take that long. The idea is already in moation to a limmited extent. The Eastern European love affair with US will be shorlived - sorry but its not you guys that are funding our highways and infastructure. Younger generation is more pro Europe then US - so im not sure how long eastern european countries will really be all that close the US.

[budanski]

Sorry to say, wholagun... The scenario of the EU as an economic powerhouse won't happen for reasons that are fundamental. The EU is not a Union but a Federation pretending to be a union. The States of the EU are still fairly sovereign and with their own agenda, such as France and Germany.

A Union, like the US, means we share not just a common currency, but common values, social views, language and government system - and that is just a start. Not so in the EU. In the US, you can have States with different economies and no big deal. Business moves from State to State and States compete for business. Not so in the EU.

A good example here (http://www.iht.com/articles/124974.html), where France and Germany are ultimately exempt do whats best for them, all else "do what I say and not what I do."

The European economy has long been dependant on making sales to the US consumer.

The notion of a Euro that is the worlds reserve currency (displacing the dollar) is turning out to be a bad dream for those in Europe who wanted to see that outcome.

Until Europe becomes the worlds focal point for the sale of goods (thereby demonstrating a global demand for the Euro) the supremacy of the Euro is not sustainable. Until Europeans decide to go to work and earn lots of money delivering a good or a service in order to be in a position to purchase the worlds goods the situation will not change. When the exchange rates suck like they do, the Euro is simply not as desireable as the EU would like to think it is. The EU have let their valuation (of the Euro) get ahead of their real market value. The current state of the Euro is simply an effort to export European inflation (10% unemployment and socialism everywhere) to markets (the US) that are unwilling to accept the inflation.

At the exact time during which the US has an economy struggling to get back on its feet, competing with other global markets for the very lifeblood of the country (and seeking only bargains) the EU is telling us via its currency that a Volkswagen is for some reason worth nearly one and a half times what it was just three years ago! We are not struggling with inflation here in the US.
Dassault says too-strong euro could force delocalistion (http://www.eubusiness.com/afp/040119130427.90tiayu6)
Germans may import own cars from U.S. as euro rises
(http://www.forbes.com/home_europe/newswire/2004/01/08/rtr1202849.html)
European goods are being progressively priced out of the market by this exchange imbalance. It is Asia, particularly Japan and China (both of whom have pegged their currency to the Dollar) that are the winners here.

I have found it amusing for the past few months to watch the Europeans scold the US for its current account deficit all the while dropping the dollars into their coffers. Now that the current account deficit is being slowed in the EU's direction they are complaining about their Euro's apparent value to the dollar!

Eventually the European Bank will be forced to devalue its currency so that they can again suck at the teat of the US market. Until then Americans will shift their dollar buying power increasingly to Asian goods. When it becomes apparent that the Euro will ultimately compete against the Yuan the Euro will again assume its proper position in the world market as a reflection of the unemployment and socialism that is Europe.

Fact: Germany had 0 Ipo's last year. This is a clear indicator of the lack of confidence for Investment in "Old Europe". Their Social system is bankrupt due to a receding population. 30 Years from now Germans will be faced with a population having 65% over the age of 65. Who will pay for the social safety net, with people living longer than ever before?

Oh well, socialism works, I guess?

Old and in the way (http://www.findarticles.com/cf_dls/m2185/8_13/94335015/p1/article.jhtml)
American Enterprise 12/02
A great read for our european friends. (Mirrored site. I got the original article via a paid subscription channel.)

[budanski]

Back to the question at hand... "Will China become a serious threat to the US in the future??"

EU mulls lifting China arms ban despite US concerns (http://www.eubusiness.com/afp/040125024533.k6cxzu7e)
Eiffel Tower illuminated in red to honor China (http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2004-01/25/content_1288014_1.htm)

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2004-01/25/xinsrc_2701012411382343134118.bmp

more images (http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2004-01/25/content_1288014.htm)

[venture160]

Lets hope the US can put some diplomatic pressure on the EU to keep this embargo in place. With direct access to western arms technology, their modernization pace could increase, especially in C4 technology.

[ColMustard]

It is irresponsible to assume that the forecasts made by Joseph Nye are highly credible on the basis of his vocation as the Dean of the Kennedy School of Government. Assuming such represents a remarkable lack of intellectual rigor. The fact that the median Chinese per-capita income will not equal that of today's American for decades is a non sequitur. What a vacuous point to make. China's capacity for strategic and military defense spending will continue to be constrained by the GDP of its economy as well as the structure thereof.

Addressing strategic issues is only worthwhile if people are going to do so with a minimal level of intellectual robustness.

[venture160]

colmustard, seing as most of here arn't china policy experts, this is a mere exploratory discussion. None of us have read dozens of books about chinese security. If I had to guess most people are basing their arguments on news articles, and some policy briefs. But whats wrong with that, can't we have an amateur discussion? I was hoping that by having such a discussion everyone here might learn something new about the issue. While yes I did bring up Nye in a few of my points I only did so when the claims were backed by hard facts. Although I may sound like i have " a lack of intellectual rigor" I do think its safe to assume that if someone has managed to climb there way to an esteemed position be it at ANY place of higher education, they generally know what they are talking about. Now what you chose to absorb into your own personal beliefs is up to you. Second, don't you think personal income is a vital statistic of a nation's economy? "China's capacity for strategic and military defense spending will continue to be constrained by the GDP of its economy as well as the structure thereof." As for the current situation I dont think anyone doubts you on that claim, but china's GDP grew by 9.8% this year, I find that to be a large increase. BUT to gain a better picture of China's economic situation you need to look at how the average individual of the country fares, which is why I brought up the personal income statistic. I believe that china's GDP is growing but internal economic disparity is growing as well and as you said its current governmental structure isn't going to allow widespread change (the pla would benfit highly if it was seperated from the CCP, according to David Shambaugh, thats one of the forces that is holding the PLA from becoming a more "professional military" rather than party based) but I agree that it isn't goin to change anytime soon.

[Nizark]

hell if we didnt have so much economically tied up in China, the whole spyplane on Hainan island insident may have turned out very differently.

[budanski]

Lets hope the US can put some diplomatic pressure on the EU to keep this embargo in place. With direct access to western arms technology, their modernization pace could increase, especially in C4 technology.


EU snubs Paris over arms for China
telegraph.co.uk (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2004/01/27/warms27.xml&sSheet=/news/2004/01/27/ixworld.html)

A French attempt to lift the European Union arms embargo against China was rejected by ministers yesterday amid concern over Beijing's human rights record and belligerent attitude to Taiwan.

President Jacques Chirac has led the drive to ease sanctions imposed after the Tiananmen Square massacre of students in 1989, hoping to benefit from China's economic growth and draw Asia's rising power into strategic "multipolar" alliance with the EU to counter American hegemony.

But EU foreign ministers meeting in Brussels agreed by 14 to 1 that China's deployment of up to 650 missiles in a war of nerves against Taiwan made it a hazardous moment to lift the arms boycott.

The decision is a blow to Beijing, which has been seeking a strategic partnership with the EU to obtain high-technology weaponry.

The hard line from Brussels came as M Chirac welcomed President Hu Jintao of China for a four-day state visit, shutting out complaints from human rights groups in preparing one of the most lavish receptions France has ever offered a foreign leader.

In Paris, where the Eiffel Tower glowed Communist red last night, 2004 has been designated the Year of China. Museums, theatres and schools are hosting Chinese performers and exhibitions.

Seeing how the French had "special" relations with the Soviets while the U.S. was fighting the Cold War, its not surprising to see France now trying to bring China in on the Galileo GPS project and the ITER fusion projects, both the US and the Chinese are crucial to the success of either project.

Free country vs totalitarian dictatorship... Its an easy choice for the French... Chirac backs China on Taiwan. (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/3432313.stm) Big surprise.

[Mr Gently Benevolent]

I agree with what others have said in regard to the EU, they will not give up their Marxist welfare systems to produce a military that could even come close to rival that of ours. I am sure that a common EU defence policy is decades away. There are many different countries in EU who view the US differently and would still like to remain allies.

Marxist welfare systems, are you in the John Birch society, I would rather lose our Nuke submarine capacity than the National Health Service even if it is less than perfect in many peoples eyes its never failed me or any of my family. I think Americans who bitch about Marxist Europe should get their ass over here and spend some time touring, its not that bad a place. I would never bitch about the American way of life you seem pretty happy with it so why should I have a problem with it.

[Damn]

Here's the scoop on China (by 2002/2003 estimates)

http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/ch.html

Some interesting tidbits from that site on China:

*Net GDP (not per capita) = 5.989 trillion dollars (U.S.) by 2002 estimates
*GDP real growth rate = 8%
*Population living below poverty line = 10% (2001 est.)
*Industrial production growth rate = 12.6% (2002 est.)
*External Debt = 149.4 billion dollars (2002 est.)

*Military manpower fit for military service: 206 million (males counted only)

*Military expenditures = 4.3% of GDP

[oldsoak]

Will China be a threat - depends what you mean by threat. Will they be powerful enconomically ? - yes, will they be powerful militarily - yes. Their economic strength can only be sustained by trading with rich partners so they are not likely to precipitate any action which will upset the economies they have lucrative trade deals with. Militarily they have no requirement for sustained power projection beyond their immediate region. They have no defence treaties with far away states or bases that they could operate out of at the level the US has, so we are unlikely to see the Chinese equivalent of a CAG operating in the South China sea. IMHO they want a stable, wealthy US/EU they can make money with. Being a major trading partner brings a power all of its own.
rgds

[Mr Gently Benevolent]

In China a military expenditure of 4.3% GDP can go a long way. :) http://www.danzigercartoons.com/img/2001/dancart943.jpg

[budanski]

I think Americans who bitch about Marxist Europe should get their ass over here and spend some time touring, its not that bad a place. I would never bitch about the American way of life you seem pretty happy with it so why should I have a problem with it.


Last year was my fourth time in Europe. Italy was great, and I really enjoyed Venice.

In Brussels a popular postcard for the tourists lists all the stereotypes for "The Perfect European." As in "The Perfect European: cooks like a Briton, drives like an Italian, is as efficient as a Frenchman, is punctual as a Belgian, drinks like an Irishman, makes love like a Greek, etc."

Reminds me of the definition of Hell: a place where the cooks are British, the policemen are German, and the civil servents are French...

Besides Europe, I've also been to most of Asia including mainland China and Vietnam. Both has given me a socialist flare which reminds me how lucky I am to be a U.S. citizen. Like Europe, I overlook the political atmosphere and experience what once was.

[iam980]

Yes, this is present tense! They are on the move to check your UAV where Air, land and underwater!

[hulaku]

Yes, this is present tense! They are on the move to check your UAV where Air, land and underwater!

Great necro post. You rock.

[Robert.V]

WTF ...i think some one mixed up he's stereotypes. Brits are lousy cooks and know diddly **** about food. The British cousin and chefs have long been the butt of jokes by rest of ****ing Europe. The French and the Italians are renowned/stereotyped to be the great cooks in Europe.

And if their is one Nation that excels producing good drivers and is know for it ..that be Finland. We even have a saying: If You Want To Win, Employ A Finn.



I never heard that stereotype about Greeks either. I heard that one about the Italians and Germans supposed to be known and are stereotyped as the efficient ones. And Swiss as the punctual ones.

[CG51]

WTF ...i think some one mixed up he's stereotypes. Brits are lousy cooks and know diddly **** about food. The British cousin and chefs have long been the butt of jokes by rest of ****ing Europe. The French and the Italians are renowned/stereotyped to be the great cooks in Europe.

And if their is one Nation that excels producing good drivers and is know for it ..that be Finland. We even have a saying: If You Want To Win, Employ A Finn.



I never heard that stereotype about Greeks either. I heard that one about the Italians and Germans supposed to be known and are stereotyped as the efficient ones. And Swiss as the punctual ones.

http://i29.tinypic.com/fc8ner.gif

..........

[Snapdad]

Only if they stop lending us money.

[The Investigator]

This thread was started 4 years ago lol.

Anyways if you look at it know China is the second largest economy in the world. It has cash reserves of 2.4 trillion dollars. Not to mention how much the U.S. owes china in debt.

A lot changed in those six years.

[IconOfEvi]

Six years ago...

But sadly, you do not win the record my friend. That goes to our Canadian university military analyst, who revived a 2003 thread. ;)

[DaveDash]

Amusing reading these old comments. Europe's economy is larger than the US's now.

[acosta]

they only co-exist, there's no choice. we have word as G2.

[luke gu]

Lol，one “鞭尸贴”？
It's really interesting to read it.

[gustav]

@Budanski:

LOL.
Over the last decades Europe has consistedly catched up with the US. http://www.economist.com/finance/displayStory.cfm?story_id=1563761
Europe neither has a staggering trade deficit (500 billion and growing) nor a budget deficit that goes up and up (and Bush is talking about an ambitious and expensive space program...ah yes and he wants to lower taxes, too). The USA industry at present could even remotely meet the demand of its own population for industrial products if it had to. And if investments dry up the way like they now you will be in a crisis soon enough. As far as I have read it there is no turning point in sight, the US leadership, both political and economical behave as usual, as if they had infinite ammounts of money at their disposal.
There is absolutely no reason to feel superior or even "safe" (economically) for America. US "growth" rates are not so much higher productivety, they are basically stronger consumption with a good part of "creative" book keeping thrown in. Remember Enron?

But lets just wait and see wether Budanski is still laughing in 2010.

Kudos for the forecast Kitsune. :)

[iam980]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c89CxXu-pq0&feature=player_embedded#!

[IconOfEvi]

You know it'd help if we knew what they were saying...

Imean I can guess of course, but no context. And what does that have to do with this?