Whats going on in Iran?

[StealthMode]

I am having difficulty understanding the current tension going on in Irans voting process coming up.

Predictions that "Conservative hardliners will flex their muscles and take control of the Islamic nation's parliament".

What does this mean for President Mohammed Khatami?

As the west, and primarily the United States, what do "WE" want to see happen here? Do we want Khatami to remain in power, or the hardliners to take over?

Can someone explain to me whats going on and what the western world would favor as the outcome?

[marktigger]

basically the theocrats are trying to cling on to power by banning candidates who are reformers.

[Guttorm]

Hmmm, I thought all they did in Iran was plot evil schemes of world domination *narf*

*humming pinky and the brain theme*

:D

[One?]

Conservatives are trying to ban the reformers from running in the elections.

There is a council that looks over the candidates (approve/disparove). And since the council has a majority of conservatives they decided to ban 500 refomers. The whole mess could be resolved if the Ayatollah said something. But he doesn't want to interfere for some odd reason.

[usa320]

The UN weapons inspectors have also found "P-2" centrifuge parts that are "far superior, more sophisticated than anything" that the Iranians have revealed publicly. P-2 centrifuges can produce much more uranium appropriate for production of nuclear weapons than a P-1, which the nation confirms it has. The equipment was found Doshen-Tappen Airbase.

It is similar to the Equipment turned over by Libya... Which is very similar to the equipment that Pakistani NUclear Scientist A.Q. Khan developed.

I think everytime that pakistani doctor talks, we will learn more and more about the sale and proliferation of Nuclear weapons equipment. So far it looks like this guy sold stuff to Libya, Iran and North Korea...

I think the whole weapons of mass destruction deal stretches far greater than anyone could have originally thought.

[StealthMode]

Nice change of topic, bit you could start that in another thread.

I am aware of the surface issues at stake, and the denial of reformers to participate.

But what I want to know is.... what do "we" want to happen in the western world. Do we want the reformists, and Khatami gone?

What would the U.S goverment like as more favorable to U.S policy.

Please restrain from comments about "favorable" U.S policy in the extreme nature, just with the matter at hand.

[usa320]

I think the favorable US Policy is to support the reformists.

As well as plan overt and covert military operations.

[Pille1234]

I think the favorable US Policy is to support the reformists.
that could be the way to go, but the reformist party didn't change anything in the past. In fact, they are toothless. The important things are still the same as before Chatami(sp?) appeared. The real power in Iran are still the religous hardliners. I don't see why the reformists could change something in the future they weren't able to do in the past. Maybe the modern, mainly youg people will find another way to gain power without a useless reformist party.
I don't really know... I don't have much hope though.


As well as plan overt and covert military operations.
Omg child, stop reading Tom Clancy

[hood]

I was watching a special on this a little while ago and they effectively said that there's little difference between the conservatives and the reformists. It's just a matter of one group having power or another. As was mentioned above, the reformists haven't done any reforming at all, so that name is really a joke. They're at the point where if anyone says anything that might actually change something, the hardliners will go and beat up their family and drag them into the streets. Everyone's so afraid of these zealot militias that no one will take the first step towards real reform. It's kind of like Iraq with Saddam Hussein, but instead of it being a single leader, you have a whole panel of these crazy religious guys who are living 500 years in the past.

[usa320]

Omg child, stop reading Tom Clancy

First off, im not a child.

Second off, i dont read tom clancy.

Anyone who doesnt think that the US has plans to deal with iran in less friendly fashions than they currently are, is just insane.

Chances are the CIA already has operations going on in Iran, specifically in the eastern part of the country that borders Afghanistan and Pakistan, and on the western border with Iraq.

[EvanL]

Omg child, stop reading Tom Clancy

First off, im not a child.

Second off, i dont read tom clancy.

Anyone who doesnt think that the US has plans to deal with iran in less friendly fashions than they currently are, is just insane.

Chances are the CIA already has operations going on in Iran, specifically in the eastern part of the country that borders Afghanistan and Pakistan, and on the western border with Iraq.the fact remains that you always suggest that solution to every problem. its not always possible man, both politically and militarilly.

[hood]

http://www.coxandforkum.com/archives/BallotInitiative-X.gif

The New York Times reports on today's Iranian "elections":


Many city walls that were plastered with election posters in previous elections are almost bare this time. Text messages circulated anonymously on mobile phones are urging people to shun the vote. "The ballot boxes are coffins for freedom," said one message. "Let's not participate in the funeral of freedom on Friday." [Emphasis added]


'Free Iran' News has posted an excellent Michael Ledeen op-ed: Stalinist Mullahs.


The other great lesson is that many Iranians, when pushed to the wall by the tyrants, do indeed have the courage to fight back. In an unprecedented step, more than 100 reformers issued a letter to Supreme Leader Khamenei, in which they used language more traditionally reserved for greater and lesser satans in Washington and Jerusalem. They surely know that punishment will be severe, but they did it anyway. One fine day such shows of courage will inspire the Iranian people to defend them en masse, fill the public spaces of the major cities with demonstrators, and demand an end to the regime. And one fine day such actions will compel the Bush administration to support the Iranian people. And on that day the regime will fall, and with it the keystone to the international terror network with which we are at war.

[martinexsquaddie]

the shah was done for after being slow to deal with a major earthquake.
the religious leaders did'nt do a good job having to take aid from the great satan would'nt have helped bet that was'nt on iranian TV :(
the reformers did'nt have a chance its like animal farm the relgious rulers are now as unpopular as the shah was. blatant vote rigging will just let everybody know there the bad guys
it's probably not going to be pretty when the revolution comes.
I'd guess condos in saudi may be in big demand in the next few years :(

[usa320]

http://www.coxandforkum.com/archives/BallotInitiative-X.gif

HELL YEAH![/quote]

[Nizark]

I am having difficulty understanding the current tension going on in Irans voting process coming up.

Predictions that "Conservative hardliners will flex their muscles and take control of the Islamic nation's parliament".

What does this mean for President Mohammed Khatami?

As the west, and primarily the United States, what do "WE" want to see happen here? Do we want Khatami to remain in power, or the hardliners to take over?

Can someone explain to me whats going on and what the western world would favor as the outcome?

The hardliners are not 'flexing their muscles' its just that with thousands of candidates banned by those hardliners, and those eligable to run, protesting the elections, someone has to run and win, so the hardliners are simply filling the holes created by the reformists, due to their plan obviously not working.

Khatami is a slimeball. Whenever there are these type of crisis' he is always with the people, as he is a reformist himself, and he threatens to resign, but then about a week later he changes his mind and pusses out.

We in the west want a end of the theocratic regime and the start of free direct elections...as we do everywhere else. Khatami has no real power. The power lies in the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamanei and the unelected political body, the Guardian Council. It can be said that Khatami has the power equivelent to a city mayor. NO matter what, the hardliners would still have power, but now it looks like total control...unfortuently, it could make Iran's majlis looks like Saddam's parliment as in the 'yes men' to what ever the leadership says.

The western world is doing what we always do, yell and scream for transparency, give the people a voice, allow dissent, etc. With the election results being around 48%, it was the lowest turn out since the islamic revolution, and since the beginning of the crisis, the hardliners have been saying that the CIA and the US govt are their hands in 'internal iranian affairs.' But to answer your question, the west hasnt been doing much of anything in this case.

The weirdest part of the situation is that it has been so quiet over there. Normally the reformists would be screaming bloody murder, but they are not. No street protests, no riots, nothing. Either they are giving up, or something else is going on behind the scenes that we are not privy to.

[hood]

The last time they screamed, their protesters got hacked to mutilation or death by not so secret militias in the middle of the night. People don't like being dead.