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BlackRain
01-10-2006, 09:03 AM
Study questions bird-flu paranoia

By Joyce Howard Price
January 10, 2006


A study suggests that most people exposed to avian flu do not become seriously ill and recover in a few days, even as a surge in suspected human bird-flu cases is raising alarm in Turkey.

The Swedish study, published yesterday in Archives of Internal Medicine, said a survey of Vietnamese showed that most people who handled dead or sick poultry reported mild flulike symptoms but did not have the severe reaction health officials said could sweep the globe.

Dr. Anna Thorson of the Karolinska Institutet in Stockholm, who led the study, said that although survey subjects were not tested for the H5N1 avian-flu virus, researchers think the participants had it. Researchers also said concern about a pandemic has been fueled by the fact that only the worst human cases have been reported to health officials since the 2003 outbreak in Asia.

"The verified human cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza in Vietnam may represent only a selection of the most severely ill patients," the study says.

But Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said yesterday that he has reservations about the study. He said that without blood tests it is impossible to know whether the people had influenza, much less avian influenza.

"There isn't enough sufficient specific data to draw any conclusions as to the prevalence of bird flu in that community," Dr. Fauci said.

Dr. William Schaffner, chairman of the Department of Preventive Medicine at Vanderbilt University Medical Center, called the study "terribly imprecise."; "There need to be more studies like this, but with laboratory confirmation," the Nashville specialist said.

H5N1, which primarily affects birds, has epidemiologists concerned because about 50 percent of humans who develop avian flu as a result die, according to World Health Organization (WHO) data. By comparison, about 0.5 percent of the U.S. population that gets flu dies in an average season. Specialists fear the H5N1 virus will mutate and become easily contagious between humans.

If the Swedish findings prove to be correct, Dr. Schaffner said, mortality from bird flu would be "more consistent" with that of other infectious diseases. "But at this point, there is no way to tell," he added.

The dispute over the study comes as the number of suspected and confirmed bird-flu cases in Turkey continues to grow. Wire reports yesterday indicated five new cases of positive tests for H5N1, bringing the number of suspected human cases in that country to 14.

More here: http://washingtontimes.com/national/20060110-122729-6822r.htm

2Sheds_Jackson
01-10-2006, 10:01 AM
Dr. Anna Thorson of the Karolinska Institutet in Stockholm, who led the study, said that although survey subjects were not tested for the H5N1 avian-flu virus, researchers think the participants had it.

Er, what good is a "study" based on criteria like this? Would anybody pay attention to an AIDS study based upon patients that they "think" had AIDS?

stateofequilibrium
01-10-2006, 10:19 AM
I guess it's somewhat similar to polio. Like well over 90% of people who get Polio may have maybe some gastric problems for a little while but get over it or maybe at worst some impairment. The pictures of the wards full of iron lungs was based off of the extremely small percentages from an epidemic.

Or even more recent and still ongoing, the West Nile Virus. For most people, they'll simple shrug it off or be treated with a short hospital stay. But the weak, elderly, or young are especially ****e and that's where we see the deaths.

BlackRain
01-10-2006, 10:54 AM
Here is the study. IMHO Bird-flu is a media generated 'sky is falling' scenario just like the 'pandemic' of SARS was a few years ago.

Is Exposure to Sick or Dead Poultry Associated With Flulike Illness?


A Population-Based Study From a Rural Area in Vietnam With Outbreaks of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza


Anna Thorson, MD, PhD; Max Petzold, PhD; Nguyen Thi Kim Chuc, PhD; Karl Ekdahl, MD, PhD

Arch Intern Med. 2006;166:119-123.


Background The verified human cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza in Vietnam may represent only a selection of the most severely ill patients. The study objective was to analyze the association between flulike illness, defined as cough and fever, and exposure to sick or dead poultry.


Methods A population-based study was performed from April 1 to June 30, 2004, in FilaBavi, a rural Vietnamese demographic surveillance site with confirmed outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza among poultry.

We included 45 478 randomly selected (cluster sampling) inhabitants. Household representatives were asked screening questions about exposure to poultry and flulike illness during the preceding months; individuals with a history of disease and/or exposure were interviewed in person.


Results A total of 8149 individuals (17.9%) reported flulike illness, 38 373 persons (84.4%) lived in households keeping poultry, and 11 755 (25.9%) resided in households reporting sick or dead poultry.

A dose-response relationship between poultry exposure and flulike illness was noted: poultry in the household (odds ratio, 1.04; 95% confidence interval, 0.96-1.12), sick or dead poultry in the household but with no direct contact (odds ratio, 1.14; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-1.23), and direct contact with sick poultry (odds ratio, 1.73; 95% confidence interval, 1.58-1.89).

The flulike illness attributed to direct contact with sick or dead poultry was estimated to be 650 to 750 cases.


Conclusions Our epidemiological data are consistent with transmission of mild, highly pathogenic avian influenza to humans and suggest that transmission could be more common than anticipated, though close contact seems required. Further microbiological studies are needed to validate these findings.

2Sheds_Jackson
01-10-2006, 11:51 AM
Here is the study. IMHO Bird-flu is a media generated 'sky is falling' scenario just like the 'pandemic' of SARS was a few years ago.


I gots to disagree with this. There is after all, the 1917 flu pandemic that we can use as a basis for comparison. I grew up on stories about it (my family had a lot of doctors in it). It's bound to happen again - there's really no avoiding it. The best we can do is to contain it while it mutates into a less harmful form. Even if the current strain mutates itself into being inconsequential, there's always the next contender. We can only be lucky so many times, IMHO. I can tell you that within 15 minutes of hearing of the first human-to-human transmission, my *ass will be headed to the store to stock up on 3 weeks worth of water and canned goods p-)

Violet Fashion by Mindy
01-10-2006, 11:57 AM
I'm really starting to worry about the work I've been doing this week.

Working in Quarentine. No protective clothing, no special showers after work.

Lazy Lob
01-10-2006, 12:04 PM
............ I can tell you that within 15 minutes of hearing of the first human-to-human transmission, my *ass will be headed to the store to stock up on 3 weeks worth of water and canned goods p-)

Don't forget to remove the ceremonial bejeweled buttplug. rofl rofl rofl

Pissed my self for a whole hour with that one.

mi35d
01-10-2006, 12:11 PM
South Park...

Stan: "Dad! What's the matter?!?

Randy: "<cough! Cough!> Stannnn...I have the SARS! <cough!> I'm done for! It's only 98% survivable with our kind of people..."

----

Then again - Ebola outbreaks scare the crap out of me. You don't shrug that crap off.

2Sheds_Jackson
01-10-2006, 01:21 PM
Don't forget to remove the ceremonial bejeweled buttplug. rofl rofl rofl

Pissed my self for a whole hour with that one.

Oh yeah, well never underestimate the power of the CBB. I'm hoping that it will give me immunity to the flu, but I can't be sure.



South Park...

Stan: "Dad! What's the matter?!?

Randy: "<cough! Cough!> Stannnn...I have the SARS! <cough!> I'm done for! It's only 98% survivable with our kind of people..."

----

Then again - Ebola outbreaks scare the crap out of me. You don't shrug that crap off.

It's a funny thing. We make a big deal about AIDS - but the Spanish Flu killed more people in just a few weeks than AIDS has ever -and still it only killed between 2.5 & 5 % of the people it infected. I guess the key is that unlike AIDS (which is pretty hard to get) - about 20% of humanity got the flu. There were some areas where the flu was far more lethal - for whatever reason there were a few areas where the flu killed everybody in an entire town. We still don't know exactly why. Hell, the flu killed more soldiers on both sides of WWI than were killed by the enemy.

I heard a report on NPR yesterday about Seattle's plans for a H5N1 flu outbreak - it's pretty much a mirror of what was done in 1918 - close all restaurants, bars, schools - anywhere people gather face-to-face in great numbers. And they will actually post people at the airport to watch for people deplaning international flights, to see if they are presenting symptoms - if they are, they go into quarantine (which will suck but is necessary).

From Wikipedia-


The strain was unusual in commonly killing many young and healthy victims, as opposed to more common influenzas which caused the bulk of their mortality among newborns and the old and infirm. People without symptoms could be struck suddenly and be rendered too feeble to walk within hours; many would die the next day. Symptoms included a blue tint to the face and coughing up blood caused by severe obstruction of the lungs. In further stages, the virus caused an uncontrollable haemorrhaging that filled the lungs, and patients would drown in their own body fluids.

Mortality in the fast-progressing cases was primarily from pneumonia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pneumonia), by virus-induced consolidation. Slower progressing cases featured secondary bacterial pneumonias while some suspect neural involvement led to psychiatric disorders in a minority of cases. Some deaths resulted from malnourishment and even animal attacks in overwhelmed communities.


Nice. You have to love it when roving packs of starving dogs are killing humans off. I just think with such a model to reference - that something similar in the future (and who knows if it will be this particular H5N1 strain) is bound to happen.