BoyElroy
01-25-2006, 05:35 PM
January 25, 2006 Wednesday 2:04 AM GMT
To NATO or not to NATO: Neutral Finland searches its soul
Gael Branchereau
DATELINE: HELSINKI, Jan 25 2006
To join NATO or not to join: the tricky question Finns have dodged for 15 years has erupted in the Nordic country's presidential election campaign which goes into its decisive second round on Sunday.
To the embarrassment of incumbent Tarja Halonen, who has seen her lead against Sauli Niinistoe dwindle, the challenger has demanded a referendum on NATO membership, arguing that it was a question of Finland's future in the world.
Although claiming that he had "no intention of pushing Finland into NATO", he still said a decision, one way or another, was inevitable soon.
"During the next presidential period it is very obvious that we have to take a decision on NATO membership and I am positive on that," he said.
Halonen meanwhile said there was no need for a NATO debate "over the next six years and even beyond that".
For many Finns, who remember being sandwiched between West and East during the Cold War, the mere thought of giving up their military non-alignment status is anathema.
But others argue that the need to placate the mighty Russian neighbour by shunning the North Atlantic Treaty Organization expired with the Soviet Union in 1991.
"You need to look at the past to understand the NATO debate," said Hanna Ojanen, head of research at the Finnish institute of international affairs.
Since the early 19th century, Finland's fate was tied to tsarist Russia and later, the Soviet Union. Having gained its independence after being an autonomous Russian grand duchy from 1809 to 1917, Finland lost two wars against the Red Army, first in 1940 and then in 1944 and, until 1991, lived in constant fear of Russian invasion.
And even 15 years after the dissolution of the Soviet empire, "contradictory messages" from the mighty neighbour continue to worry many Finns, Ojanen said.
"The Russians have been very quick to build up their army again, and nobody knows who will be president after Vladimir Putin in May 2008," said Markku Salomaa, associate professor at the Joensuu university and specialist in European military history.
"We are seeing a negative political evolution in Russian, towards more authoritarianism, including towards other former Soviet republics, as we recently saw in the case of Ukraine," one source close to the Finnish military told AFP.
"At the same time, I don't see Russia becoming more aggressive towards countries who do not belong to the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS)," which groups the ex-Soviet satellites with the exception of the Baltic states.
Although the future of Finland's non-aligned status has been on the table since the end of the Cold War, a majority of Finns are in no hurry to find an answer.
Many even believe that the question will be overtaken by a defence established by the European Union, which Finland joined in 1995.
But others at least want a public debate on what joining would entail.
"The generation of the Cold War has an image and identity problem, a need of normality," Ojanen said.
The pro-NATO camp claims that Finland's armed forces are "NATO-compatible", noting that Finland has participated in NATO manoeuvres since 1994 in the "partnership for peace" framework, and adding that the Nordic country would be invited to join a rapid intervention force.
"Some would have us believe that membership would solve all our problems, but the problems continue. Joining would not influence European defence, or the way Russia is evolving. For some politicians this is simply a way to show that they are not afraid of Russia," Ojanen said.
Economics are a strong factor in favour of NATO membership, given that Finnish military spending has been going down.
After the end of the Soviet Union, followed by Finland's economic crisis and EU membership, Finland cut its defence budget from 1.7 percent of GDP in 2001 to 1.3 percent in 2005. Annual defence spending represents five percent of the overall government budget.
"Listening to generals -- and they know -- one realizes that we are having problems," Niinistoe said last month.
Salomaa agreed that there was a "defence deficit", illustrated by a reservist number which has dwindled to 350,000 from 500,000.
"It's like for Greece and Turkey, except those two countries went into NATO," he said.
gab/jh/nl/bm
To NATO or not to NATO: Neutral Finland searches its soul
Gael Branchereau
DATELINE: HELSINKI, Jan 25 2006
To join NATO or not to join: the tricky question Finns have dodged for 15 years has erupted in the Nordic country's presidential election campaign which goes into its decisive second round on Sunday.
To the embarrassment of incumbent Tarja Halonen, who has seen her lead against Sauli Niinistoe dwindle, the challenger has demanded a referendum on NATO membership, arguing that it was a question of Finland's future in the world.
Although claiming that he had "no intention of pushing Finland into NATO", he still said a decision, one way or another, was inevitable soon.
"During the next presidential period it is very obvious that we have to take a decision on NATO membership and I am positive on that," he said.
Halonen meanwhile said there was no need for a NATO debate "over the next six years and even beyond that".
For many Finns, who remember being sandwiched between West and East during the Cold War, the mere thought of giving up their military non-alignment status is anathema.
But others argue that the need to placate the mighty Russian neighbour by shunning the North Atlantic Treaty Organization expired with the Soviet Union in 1991.
"You need to look at the past to understand the NATO debate," said Hanna Ojanen, head of research at the Finnish institute of international affairs.
Since the early 19th century, Finland's fate was tied to tsarist Russia and later, the Soviet Union. Having gained its independence after being an autonomous Russian grand duchy from 1809 to 1917, Finland lost two wars against the Red Army, first in 1940 and then in 1944 and, until 1991, lived in constant fear of Russian invasion.
And even 15 years after the dissolution of the Soviet empire, "contradictory messages" from the mighty neighbour continue to worry many Finns, Ojanen said.
"The Russians have been very quick to build up their army again, and nobody knows who will be president after Vladimir Putin in May 2008," said Markku Salomaa, associate professor at the Joensuu university and specialist in European military history.
"We are seeing a negative political evolution in Russian, towards more authoritarianism, including towards other former Soviet republics, as we recently saw in the case of Ukraine," one source close to the Finnish military told AFP.
"At the same time, I don't see Russia becoming more aggressive towards countries who do not belong to the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS)," which groups the ex-Soviet satellites with the exception of the Baltic states.
Although the future of Finland's non-aligned status has been on the table since the end of the Cold War, a majority of Finns are in no hurry to find an answer.
Many even believe that the question will be overtaken by a defence established by the European Union, which Finland joined in 1995.
But others at least want a public debate on what joining would entail.
"The generation of the Cold War has an image and identity problem, a need of normality," Ojanen said.
The pro-NATO camp claims that Finland's armed forces are "NATO-compatible", noting that Finland has participated in NATO manoeuvres since 1994 in the "partnership for peace" framework, and adding that the Nordic country would be invited to join a rapid intervention force.
"Some would have us believe that membership would solve all our problems, but the problems continue. Joining would not influence European defence, or the way Russia is evolving. For some politicians this is simply a way to show that they are not afraid of Russia," Ojanen said.
Economics are a strong factor in favour of NATO membership, given that Finnish military spending has been going down.
After the end of the Soviet Union, followed by Finland's economic crisis and EU membership, Finland cut its defence budget from 1.7 percent of GDP in 2001 to 1.3 percent in 2005. Annual defence spending represents five percent of the overall government budget.
"Listening to generals -- and they know -- one realizes that we are having problems," Niinistoe said last month.
Salomaa agreed that there was a "defence deficit", illustrated by a reservist number which has dwindled to 350,000 from 500,000.
"It's like for Greece and Turkey, except those two countries went into NATO," he said.
gab/jh/nl/bm