Bird flu 'two steps' away from pandemic

[East Scout]

Bird flu 'two steps' away from pandemic

Two mutations and H5N1 virus would be able to spread easily among people

Feb 12, 2006
The Straits Times
http://www.asiaone.com/st/st_20060212_370738.html

LISBON - THE bird flu virus is only two mutations away from a form
that can spread easily among people, sparking a pandemic in which
millions could die, the UN bird flu chief said in an interview
published in Portugal yesterday.

'Only two mutations are needed for it to become easily transmissible
among humans,' Dr David Nabarro, who heads the UN drive to contain the
virus, told weekly newspaper Expresso.

'I wake up every morning thinking that today could be the day that I
will see a report about a strange case of bird flu among humans,' he
added.

In 1918, an influenza pandemic that is believed to have originated in
birds killed more than 40 million people around the world. Subsequent
pandemics in 1957 and 1968 had lower death rates but still caused
widespread disruption.

The current manifestation of the scourge, the H5N1 bird flu virus, has
killed tens of millions of birds since 2003 and there have been at
least 165 confirmed cases of the strain spreading to humans, causing
about 90 deaths, mostly in Asia.

The virus has spread from Asia to eastern Europe and it was confirmed
yesterday to have reached the European Union, having been detected in
members Greece and Italy as well as in Bulgaria

Italian Health Minister Francesco Storace said the strain had been
found in two dead swans on the island of Sicily and was suspected in
at least half a dozen birds elsewhere in the south of the country.

Nigeria this week reported Africa's first known outbreak of the deadly
strain.

The authorities in Nigeria are now investigating whether the strain
has spread to humans after several people were reported ill, Health
Minister Eyitayo Lambo said yesterday.

Thousands of chickens in the northern state of Kaduna were culled
yesterday in a bid to contain the outbreak, but officials warned that
the disease is spreading rapidly and approaching the Niger border.

In Kaduna on Friday, police hunted 180 ostriches with assault rifles,
as the animals marked for destruction raced around one farm. But only
120 birds were killed on Friday, after the police ran out of bullets.

The Nigerian authorities have insisted they are taking the necessary
measures against the disease, but agriculture spokesman Tope Ajakaiye
said there were no plans to order poultry markets to close or to
impose restrictions on the trade or movement of poultry - measures
international organisations say are key to checking the disease's spread.

A WHO official said on Friday that the UN agency would use a weekend
anti-polio campaign in Nigeria to help in the battle against bird flu.

Door-to-door canvassers immunising children against polio could watch
for unexplained deaths from pneumonia, a possible sign that people
have caught bird flu, said Bruce Aylward, coordinator of WHO's global
polio eradication programme.

Elsewhere, China on Friday reported its eighth human death from the
H5N1 strain of bird flu, and Indonesia yesterday reported its
eighteenth death. -- AFP, AP

[RGRBOX]

Yep, we just got the news here in Europe that Italy has gotten a few cases... I'd like to know what bastard came up with this man made potion of crap this time..

[Sgt.Axeman1224]

In Kaduna on Friday, police hunted 180 ostriches with assault rifles,
as the animals marked for destruction raced around one farm. But only
120 birds were killed on Friday, after the police ran out of bullets.

nothing like a little target practice to sharpen those skillz. wonder how much ammo they brought with them.

[Mastermind]

H5N1 is very closely related to the flu of 1918...it differens by only a very small portion. fortunately, it is not a respiratory flu...it is a digestive tract type flu. That is primarily why it has so much trouble passing from birds to human. But, epidemiologists point out it is just a matter of time before it mutates by the relatively few human who do come down with it. Notice there so far, the flu has hit remote rural areas, mostly farmers who have close proximity with domesticated bird droppings. As a rule, Bird flu sickens the birds but has a low mortality rate. In humans, the "Bird" strain has a high mortality rat (30%) but so far has not passed from human to human.

Now, notice the scam that is going on around teh world..the Indonesian gvt declared an epidemic and demanded the WHO immediately give Indonesia a huge sum to help contain the disaster...investigators were not allowed into the "infected zone" and the WHO refused to give the money...Indonesian officials then culled hundreds of thousands of birds and then demanded the UN give restitution to the farmers...come to find out, only a few hundred birds had actually been culled. This same scam was attemted in Belorussia, Turkey and Greece...even Vietnam tried to get in on it with a massive cull and yet only a few unconfirmed cases of actual "Bird" flu have been found.

An Israeli scientist came up with a "universal" vaccine against all flu, using a method that most researchers had considered unlikely to produce results. But, because of her use of certain unconventional approaches, she was successful in attacking the flu virus in a point common to just about all flu and some cold virus. Her research, though reported in scientific journals of limited circulation was largely ignored by the major media...the reason is speculated that if the public was aware there was very promising research toward an innoculation, they would be less cooperative in culling domestic animals which is considered a very useful tool in holding down major outbreaks. They also failed to mention the highly profitable aspects of culling when in most countries, the WHO compensations for mandatory culling often pays many times the local value of live stock that are culled. It is further speculated that some countries exaggerate the dangers in order to qualify for release of emergency funds.

Some scientists studying the "bird" flu have suggested the strains they have been given to verify outbreaks are actually from old stocks of past flu strains, some being genetically similar to strains identified from outbreaks as far back as 1954, thus implicating the collusion of health agencies of the various countries involved.

This is from memory of an article I read in a magazine while wating for my wife at Dr. office...I wish I had taken it so I could refer back to it. But, there it is.

[Omaha]

Every couple of years there arises the "Black death" of plagues. Where the world is only a half a step from the brink of total annihilation.

First it was Polio.

Then it was Small Pox.

Then it was influenza that was resistant to antibiotics.

Then it was SARS.

And now it's the bird flu.



Caution is one thing, fear is quite another. Lets not turn this into what Global Warming has become.

[EvanL]

Every couple of years there arises the "Black death" of plagues. Where the world is only a half a step from the brink of total annihilation.

First it was Polio.

Then it was Small Pox.

Then it was influenza that was resistant to antibiotics.

Then it was SARS.

And now it's the bird flu.



Caution is one thing, fear is quite another. Lets not turn this into what Global Warming has become.
A reality?????

[Omaha]

A reality?????


No, an irrational fear that prevents real problem solving and/or solid evidence to support such a claim if one exists.

[EvanL]

No, an irrational fear that prevents real problem solving and/or solid evidence to support such a claim if one exists.
Well considerign the fact that we havent had a whole week here where the weather has stayed below freezing, and its rained more than snowed so far this winter... I can say its pretty much a fact that the earths temperature is rising.

[Mastermind]

If you believe in "Global Warming" you have simply got to check this out...

http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/sun_output_030320.html

Pretty spooky stuff, eh? Better get out the sun screen and the umbrellas and move a bit further north....Hold on, got to go check my freon level in my SUV's AC.....

[Hiroshima]

You know, the only cases of humans getting bird flu were the poor bastards living, eating, and sleeping in the same buildings as their birds....

[East Scout]

You know, the only cases of humans getting bird flu were the poor bastards living, eating, and sleeping in the same buildings as their birds....

Your point? This thing has already mutated to adapt to infect the human resporatory sytem easier..Thats called a JUMP in progress..The more people in the trashacan countries that are exposed the more chances it has to adapty then PRESTO you have a human form.......

On an evn darker note: The world bank is dumping million into preperations for this breaking out..You better believe they wont dump a cent into anything they havnt researched and researched again to make sure that its a good investment..

[CG51]

I wouldn't make light of something like this....

[Mastermind]

So here is a spooky thought..what if this new flu is something engineered and the west already has an innnoculant? What if the trouble brewing in the "trash can" countries is just perfect for the spread of such a virus spread by living in filth and sleeping right next to pigs and chickens and ducks....What if the west is just waiting for the stuff to get around just to the right degree..then wahm, they activate it...and then let it infect the third worlds filthy billions...say buh-by to Muslims and at just the right moment, they break out the innoculant and ..."OOPS" they have only made enough for their own people..."Sorry, Murdering Mullahs of Islam...I guess Allah was not happy with the way you guys were intrepreting His message." Sure would clean up a lot of mess around the world and just think of all that free oil we would get out of the deal...OH, sure a few hundred million westerners would croak along with the scum...but, what the F..it would solve a whole lot of the "Golabal Warming" problems...not so many Shieks driving around in those Mercs and Hummers...the poor not needing to be fed, all those bean eaters not issuing forth ozone destroying flatulence.


Nefarious as it sounds, I would not put it past some of the nuts running the Universities and colleges and Medical research houses now days.

[East Scout]

So here is a spooky thought..what if this new flu is something engineered and the west already has an innnoculant? What if the trouble brewing in the "trash can" countries is just perfect for the spread of such a virus spread by living in filth and sleeping right next to pigs and chickens and ducks....What if the west is just waiting for the stuff to get around just to the right degree..then wahm, they activate it...and then let it infect the third worlds filthy billions...say buh-by to Muslims and at just the right moment, they break out the innoculant and ..."OOPS" they have only made enough for their own people..."Sorry, Murdering Mullahs of Islam...I guess Allah was not happy with the way you guys were intrepreting His message." Sure would clean up a lot of mess around the world and just think of all that free oil we would get out of the deal...OH, sure a few hundred million westerners would croak along with the scum...but, what the F..it would solve a whole lot of the "Golabal Warming" problems...not so many Shieks driving around in those Mercs and Hummers...the poor not needing to be fed, all those bean eaters not issuing forth ozone destroying flatulence.


Nefarious as it sounds, I would not put it past some of the nuts running the Universities and colleges and Medical research houses now days.

Interesting theory but i think its nature as it has always been sorting things out not Secret Agents Zikfried has sent from Chaos..haha jk brother...If this breaks out count on Rome to come tumbling down world wide...The time of the wine and circus illusion will come to a screaching halt and Goverments will cease to function. Haji in his dress with an AK will be the good old days compare to what man will do to each other to survive and a new dark age will take over......Am i being bit dramatic? I hope thats all it is.......

[MakeWar87]

Your point? This thing has already mutated to adapt to infect the human resporatory sytem easier..Thats called a JUMP in progress..The more people in the trashacan countries that are exposed the more chances it has to adapty then PRESTO you have a human form.......

On an evn darker note: The world bank is dumping million into preperations for this breaking out..You better believe they wont dump a cent into anything they havnt researched and researched again to make sure that its a good investment..

yes a mutation has occurred but it would require another mutation in order for it to have the ability to jump from human to human. You cant call something a pandemic unless it has the ability for widespread human casulites. Its being contained and even if it couldnt the econmy would suffer greatly but we could cut off all bird shipments. Theres a nonexsistent subtype so there is no chance in the near future for a mutation or any ability to be transfered. The bubonic plague started in rodents and was transfered to human by being bit and enetering the blood stream hten being carried from animal to man , this is the only chance for spreading of the disease but if its controled its nonesistent like aids.

[East Scout]

yes a mutation has occurred but it would require another mutation in order for it to have the ability to jump from human to human. You cant call something a pandemic unless it has the ability for widespread human casulites. Its being contained and even if it couldnt the econmy would suffer greatly but we could cut off all bird shipments. Theres a nonexsistent subtype so there is no chance in the near future for a mutation or any ability to be transfered. The bubonic plague started in rodents and was transfered to human by being bit and enetering the blood stream hten being carried from animal to man , this is the only chance for spreading of the disease but if its controled its nonesistent like aids.

join, read and learn brother.......

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/BIRDFLUWATCH

[MakeWar87]

Why would I join a group thats overzealous and waste their time talking about how much the bird flu is gonna fu** us up when if its contained well be fine its called the WHO they ere made for a reason besides theres scientific reasoning behind my post showing why shouldnt be worried thanks though.

[East Scout]

Why would I join a group thats overzealous and waste their time talking about how much the bird flu is gonna fu** us up when if its contained well be fine its called the WHO they ere made for a reason besides theres scientific reasoning behind my post showing why shouldnt be worried thanks though.


You have ESP or just see dead people like that little kid on the Tv? The group looks at all possibilities, situations and scenarios so before you go beating your chest that you're the all knowing and all seeing why do you go in and have a look and stop running your suck so you dont sound like such a dumb ass...Whoops to late...

Why do you need to join? Becuase you dont have a clue at WTF your talking about..I was trying to polite but i see you well above that...

Here is the discription incase (since) you didnt even bother looking:

GATHER, SHARE AND INQUIRE ABOUT THE BIRD FLU. DISCUSS HOW IT WILL CHANGE THE FACE OF CIVILIZATION. NO RUMORS OR CRAZY STORIES ABOUT WHY THIS NEW THREAT IS IN OUR LIVES..NO HO'KIS PO'KIS STORIES ABOUT THE NWO STARTING THIS OR HOW GOD IS PUNISHING ANYONE..I'LL BOOT YOU IF YOU FLING THIS KRAPP AROUND THE GROUP!

Nothing over zealous about that ........

[Hiroshima]

...ooookay...call me when it mutates the second time (since it'll be only 25% lethal)...also, lay off breathing the chicken $hit in bro.

Small note: most cases are from poorer areas where people are living in really really close proximity to their livestock, hardly travel outside thier villiages, and probably do not watch MTV (lucky bastards).

[MakeWar87]

You have ESP or just see dead people like that little kid on the Tv? The group looks at all possibilities, situations and scenarios so before you go beating your chest that you're the all knowing and all seeing why do you go in and have a look and stop running your suck so you dont sound like such a dumb ass...Whoops to late...

Why do you need to join? Becuase you dont have a clue at WTF your talking about..I was trying to polite but i see you well above that...

Here is the discription incase (since) you didnt even bother looking:

GATHER, SHARE AND INQUIRE ABOUT THE BIRD FLU. DISCUSS HOW IT WILL CHANGE THE FACE OF CIVILIZATION. NO RUMORS OR CRAZY STORIES ABOUT WHY THIS NEW THREAT IS IN OUR LIVES..NO HO'KIS PO'KIS STORIES ABOUT THE NWO STARTING THIS OR HOW GOD IS PUNISHING ANYONE..I'LL BOOT YOU IF YOU FLING THIS KRAPP AROUND THE GROUP!

Nothing over zealous about that ........

Well considering my major is bilogy I think I do know what I'm talking about do you even know what mutations are. Do you know how subtypes are created know you got you facts from an article consiedering I study this information I think I would know what the dangers are and how it travels. Yeah the doctors have to say its dangerous cause it is and we have to prepare for it but if its contained in the food and we contain the food we dont have to worry IT CANT BE TRANSFERED FROM HUMAN TO HUMAN theres no pandemic. I dont worry about it because there is nothing I can do about it I could care less for a pandemic group

[East Scout]

Well considering my major is bilogy I think I do know what I'm talking about do you even know what mutations are. Do you know how subtypes are created know you got you facts from an article consiedering I study this information I think I would know what the dangers are and how it travels. Yeah the doctors have to say its dangerous cause it is and we have to prepare for it but if its contained in the food and we contain the food we dont have to worry IT CANT BE TRANSFERED FROM HUMAN TO HUMAN theres no pandemic. I dont worry about it because there is nothing I can do about it I could care less for a pandemic group

Thats great, if you have all the answers maybe you need to start an alternate thread with your vast knowlage and insight on bilogy (what ever that is..or did you mean biology?) to discredit every peice of information out there thats dosnt agree with your o'so educated opionion. But if you had the answers Im sure you would know there has been 2 human to human transfers..Whoops, you did it again! ..

But hay its your major right? You're one of those guys that sits around and thinks up all the answers..What do i know, Im just a wore out old Grunt not a bilogy major......Sorry man i cant spell for **** either ..Jk, dont take it personal;-)..

[East Scout]

...ooookay...call me when it mutates the second time (since it'll be only 25% lethal)...also, lay off breathing the chicken $hit in bro.

Small note: most cases are from poorer areas where people are living in really really close proximity to their livestock, hardly travel outside thier villiages, and probably do not watch MTV (lucky bastards).


trolls like you are a dime a dozen.........

[Hiroshima]

trolls like you are a dime a dozen.........

I'm a troll? Meh, what ever man. Honestly, do you call everyone who disagrees with you a troll? At least I didn't call you and your friends wackos.

[MakeWar87]

Thats great, if you have all the answers maybe you need to start an alternate thread with your vast knowlage and insight on bilogy (what ever that is..or did you mean biology?) to discredit every peice of information out there thats dosnt agree with your o'so educated opionion. But if you had the answers Im sure you would know there has been 2 human to human transfers..Whoops, you did it again! ..

But hay its your major right? You're one of those guys that sits around and thinks up all the answers..What do i know, Im just a wore out old Grunt not a bilogy major......Sorry man i cant spell for **** either ..Jk, dont take it personal;-)..

im not discrediting anybodys information it just you've provided none and I am taking a major in biology if you would like to bring forth scientific evidence that could contribute to this debate instead of doing nothing but call pwople trolls

[Clearday-TRForce]

Eight swans were found dead in Croatia; however, it is still unknown whether they died of bird flu.

Croatian Agriculture Ministry Spokesman Mladen Pavic reported the dead swans were transferred to the Veterinary Institute for testing to determine the cause of death.

The spokesman declared the results will be announced as soon as possible. He also said the country has halted the poultry import from Slovenia, Bulgaria, Italy, and Greece.

Bird flu had appeared in Croatia in October. At that time, dead swans were found to have a high level pathogenic H5N1 virus, resulting in the culling of 25,000 fowls.

[08:02:00]


regards
CDTRF

[Mastermind]

I read a book some years ago that spoke of what it would take for human kind to suffer an apocalyptic disease...like we have seen in movies like S. Kings novel "the Stand" and others. It would take a disease that has several things going for it. First, the disease will have to be invisibly infectious. That is, it would have to have a long incubation period like AIDS. Two weeks seems to be the agreed upon perfect time. You would never know a person was infected for that period of time. This way the disease will be spread widely before efforts can be made to stop it. Second, the disease would have to be infectious several days or even, more perfectly, a week or so before symptoms start really showing (Again, AIDS meets this bill). In this way, the efforts to halt the spread would practically be useless. Third, the disease would need to take some time to kill. This will overwhelm the heath care efforts, killing trained nurses and Dr.s. as they are overwhelmed with patients (Aids fits this bill to a sertain extent). Fourth, the disease needs to be pulmonary and spread via airborne aerosols (droplets)...like coughing and sneezing...one unprotected cough or a small sneeze and an entire gymnasium of people would be infected (AIDs does not fit this part). Fifth, the disease needs to have a mortality rate above sixty percent...ideally above 90 percent. Survivors of most infectious deiseases tend to develop immunity...so at these very high mortality rates, few would be left to assist health care people...not that it would do any good. By slow spread and slow mortality, the disease will not "kill itself" like the Red Plague did. After sweeping through a population, so many die, the population density rapidly decreases and thus reducing chance of infections and thus the disease finally ends (This rule basically excludes AIDS from contention as the "Perfect Disease"). Various candidates for the "Perfect Disease" are Ebola (and various other hemorragics), Flu, West Nile, and Small Pox. What ever it is, it will be most likely a virus. Modern living seems to be perfect for a disease disaster...rapid mass intercontinental transportation and extremely high population densities. Hong Kong, Mexico City, Singapore, New Dheli and various other third world population centers with close proximity ot miraid animal matter and poor health services makes it highly likely that a "Perfect Disease", if it exists, will come from one or more of those places. Right now, Bird Flu is rapidly excluding itself as a likely candidate.

[Violet Fashion by Mindy]

Speaking to a quarintine official a few weeks back when I was doing some temp work on the docks about this.

Australia is safe. Due to our isolation. And the birds that do migrate here from Asia have a reletivly weak immune system that means that any infected bird that usually ends up dead in the ocean before landfall. Even in the event of a bird reaching land fall. The shear isolation up north means that the chance of the bird surviving long enough to infect non migratory birds is extremely.

He said
Australia has more chance of having a small pox epidemic then a bird flu epidemic

So

Sucks to be the rest of the world.

:)

[Mastermind]

So, I would be interested to hear from MakeWar about the perfect disease...you have a background in this and it looks to me like you know what you are talking about...I thinking "Bird Flu" is not it and is more hype than fact by gvts trying to scam money out of fear and the UN...

[East Scout]

I rread a book some years ago that spoke of what it would take for human kind to suffer an apocalyptic disease...like we have seen in movies like S. Kings novel "the Stand" and others. It would take a disease that has several things going for it. First, the disease will have to be invisibly infections. That is, it would have to have a long incubation period like AIDS. Two weeks seems to be the agreed upon perfect time. You would never know a person was infected for that period of time. This way the disease will be spread widely before efforts can be made to stop it. Second, the disease would have to be infectious several days or even, more perfectly, a week or so before symptoms start really showing (Again, AIDS meets this bill). In this way, the efforts to halt the spread would practically be useless. Third, the disease would need to take some time to kill. This will overwhelm the heath care efforts, killing trained nurses and Dr.s. as they are overwhelmed with patients. Fourth, the disease needs to be pulmonary and spread via airborne aerosols (droplets)...like coughing and sneezing...one unprotected cough or a small sneeze and an entire gymnasium of people would be infected. Fifth, the disease needs to have a mortality rate above sixty percent...ideally above 90 percent. Survivors of most infectious deiseases tend to develop immunity...so at these very high mortality rates, few would be left to assist health care people...not that it would do any good. By slow spread and slow mortality, the disease will not "kill itself" like the Red Plague did. After sweeping through a population, so many die, the population density rapidly decreases and thus reducing chance of infections and thus the disease finally ends. Various candidate for the "Perfect Disease" are Ebola (and various other hemorragics), Flu, West Nile, and Small Pox. What ever it is, it will be most likely a virus. Modern living seems to be perfect for a disease disaster...rapid mass intercontinental transportation and extremely high population densities. Hong Kong, Mexico City, Singapore, New Dheli and various other third world population centers with close proximity ot miraid animal matter and poor health services makes it highly likely that a "Perfect Disease", if it exists, will come from one or more of those places. Right now, Bird Flu is rapidly excluding itself as a likely candidate.

THATS A GOOOD POST...Some info i have read is right there with what you discribed with how is spreads right to its incubation periods witch is one reason they are so worried about it taking of globaly..All the but the death rate of the bird flu wont be 90% unless it gets real nasty when it goes full blow mutated..It could go the other way and some research has sujested just that but from what i have read it dosnt look to be doing that...To be fair i dont think "they" really know.. With our fast moving and globe trotting civilization it wouldnt be hard for it to get anywhere in 24-48 hours...

[Hiroshima]

They're guesstimating 50% on the first mutation, then 25% lethality on the second mutation

[RGRBOX]

I know I must sound like a nut, but I believe that AIDs was man made... and I'm not talking about to guy fvcking.. I'm talking about in a lab somewhere...

[Omaha]

Well considerign the fact that we havent had a whole week here where the weather has stayed below freezing, and its rained more than snowed so far this winter... I can say its pretty much a fact that the earths temperature is rising.

Haha, sure. What ever you say. :roll:

[East Scout]

I know I must sound like a nut, but I believe that AIDs was man made... and I'm not talking about to guy fvcking.. I'm talking about in a lab somewhere...

Funny you should mention that..I was just thinking about a PBS program or a documentary i saw back in the early 90s that told of a form of Aids that was transmitted through Airborne infection like coughing and sneezing..It killed in a metter of hours or a day....It killed off an entire population of two villages but they were able to stop it by quarintie because some wester Dr's were in the right place at the right time....Can you imagine some funk like that tear assing through a big city like NYC or Berlin?

[East Scout]

Haha, sure. What ever you say. :roll:

Naw mate you have it wrong..You're sappose to say "If you say so"..;-)

[MakeWar87]

You cant call aids a perfect disease or and epidemic, aids is so widespread not due to its danger because aids is one of the weakest diseases around within seconds of being introduced to oxygen the disease dies. You cant get aids from a guys blood that spilled on on the ground and you make contact. Its more due to bad judgement as oppose to something like a bubonic plague. For you mastermind I hope this is for educational purposed but a disease that could be extremely harmful would be something that is traveled by humans meaning the human body becomes a harbor for the disease it works with the disease not against it. For instant something relased through the air that enters the body and is spread from human to human like a cough or a sneeze. So you relase this in a subway and the people go diffrerent directions it creates a widespread virus instantly. So all those wo were infected pass it on to more people and they go home take it to their children who take it school. So you're creating a huge web that is so widspread it cnat be contained.

[Mastermind]

Think of a disease...that is a "perfect disease" like a forest fire. If the conditions are not just right, it is an undergrowth fire...if the wind is low, if the humidity is up, the fire stays contained...but, if things are just right...long dry spell, hot, arid, windy, trees and brush thick enough and tall enough...wham...you have a conflagration. Same with a disease...enough people infecting each other, high population density, rapid host mobility, long in-body incubation period, easily transmitted by aerosol (breath, coughing, sneezing), not too quick onset of debilitation of the host, infection without obvious symptoms, high (but not too high) a mortality rate...and again, you have "forest fire" of a disease. So far, such a disease does not present itself to the human hosts. The 1918 flu was pretty close to a perfect disease and yet it killed only (estimated) 40 million in three years...and the mobility of the hosts was not nearly as effecient as today. Also, think about the overall mortailty of the given population...there were...guessing ..about 3 billion people on earth then...and the disease only killed ,.13 percent if I did my math right...that's .(POINT) 13 percent...not 13 percent!...imagine a perfect disease today hitting just 25% of the population and with a 70% mortality...1.5 billion infected and 1.05 billion dead. That's got to have an impact of devastating consequence. Also, remember that the more a disease kills the hosts, the quicker it runs its course..the density of the available hosts is reduced and the disease dynamic dramatically changes..this is what ultimately saved Europe from the Red Death plague and also the bubonic plague. It was devastating..but it was also not eradicating. I don't understand the disease that killed the Mississippi valley natives the Spaniards introduced about 1525...that disease killed EVERYONE....and that example is not how diseases work according to the modern models...so there may be some lurking, nefarious disease charachterisitcs no one is aware of.

[MakeWar87]

yeah for sure but remeber the bubonic plague to place way before modern medicine was even introduced and with technology I think the bubonic plague could easlily have been prevented. But too long of an incubation could mean detection so it could be prevented and treated in early stages also if it sits with the body for a long time and the body recognizes it as a foriegn virus bad for the body it will fight it. If this happens the human body will form a resistance eventually and fight to weaken the disease. Its like listorine the mouthwash it only kills 99.9% so that .1% that it doesnt kills proves immune to the mouthwash and as it multiplys it creates a bacteria that the listorine cant kill which eventually leads to listorine being useless. Also rember bacteria are organism and if its entered in the body it will be recognized quickly mean a white blood cell fight and cold symptoms will occur. Now have millions of people randomly getting a cold or the flu will draw quite a bit of attention.

[Violet Fashion by Mindy]

Australia had an outbreak of bubonic plague in 1903 in Sydney.

[RGRBOX]

Ecellant points being brought up here. This post has just become the second best one I've seen in a long while... and funny that Brandenburger posted both...

If I could just ask an off topic question: I know it sounds stupid, but I've forgotten how to post a thread... that is start a thread...

[MakeWar87]

Go to thread tools start thread.

[East Scout]

Ecellant points being brought up here. This post has just become the second best one I've seen in a long while... and funny that Brandenburger posted both...

If I could just ask an off topic question: I know it sounds stupid, but I've forgotten how to post a thread... that is start a thread...

Maybe you're into em becuase it touches on that survival thing..I think they need to mak a Military SERE Bushcraft section here and make YOU the
mod..:-)

To start a thread go to the desired topic and there is a start new thread button at the top left corner..I think its blue..

[Mastermind]

Bubonic plague is indeed a bacteria disease. I came from SE New mexico and there we had three cases in 12 years. Every one was with trappers...yes they still have professional trappers for coyote and bob cat and evne mountain lion. To give you an example of how Bubonic plague works here is the case of one poor guy. He trapped a bob cat and skinned it at the trap site. In the process of skinning the critter, he accidentally nicked his hand...not serious. But, the animal was infected with the bubonic plague already and he had cut a bubo in the skinning process (lymph nodes swell terribly and are just filled with plague bacteria...some of that bacteria entered his nicked hand. the next day he woke at his ranch with swelling under his arms...he drove himself to the hospital that afternoon, about 40 mile drive...that night he was listed as critical and the next day he was dead. The bubonic plague is fast and exudes a very toxic residue. The Dr. said there was no way to save the man after only six hours of infection. Pretty scary. In northern NM, we had the dreaded hanta virus, spread by mouse urine and droppings. This stuff killed about 20 people. The virus infect mice, the mice urinate and the urine dries and gets mixed with dust. When dry, the virus goes dormant and can be dangerous for years. When people come along and sweep their cabin floor, the dust has particles of dried mouse urine with the virus...you inhale it, the moisture in your body revivies the dromant virus and then three or four days later you die. They say the symptoms of hanta are very much like the common cold..but causes you to exude copious amounts of fluid into your lungs...you essentially drown in your own body fluid. Common household bleach water destroys the dormant virus.

Just two diseases caused by different organisims and vectors.

[MakeWar87]

That second one is crazy I know a lot about alltitude problems since I spent quite some time in the rockies and it reminds me of it where your lung sacs pretty much explode due to lack of oxygen and intense breathing and if you dont decrease it will fill you lungs and kill you. One of top killers among climbers. Yeah thats crazy I didnt know it existed in animals wonder how but atleast with modern medicine theres no real likely chance of the black plague in these days like in europe century back. Did you go to college for this stuff.

[Mastermind]

I was a New Mexico vector control officer in one of my many different careers. I just happened to fall into the job and met some of the most remarkable people...I was working with the scientists who solved the Hanta virus mystery (no one knew what was causing people in the four corners area to drop dead). There was a team of vector control PHD's, a man and a woman team, who were put on the case. The woman was almost spooky the way she could track animals...she actually tracked and stalked a single mouse in the desert and caught it! It happend to be the confirmation animal (an infected one) that led to the discovery of the cause of the deaths. I went to several seminars with them and listend to many of their lectures on disease and vector control. I am, by education, a metallurgist. I only worked in that field, however, for five years. But, that is a much longer and boring story.

[MakeWar87]

Yeah most people dont end up workin what they got a career in for long. I hope with a biology major I can spread my knowledge of animals and foriegn diseases. Im a huge advocate for africa so is my brother we belong to several groups that help fund the country

[Mastermind]

Yeah, I figured you were an "Africaphile". I nuts about the American Indians, myself. And, as for working the career you chose...some do and some don't. I became and electrician becasue it paid good...then I became a plumber because I was greedy...and I became a general contractor because I was driven insane by being a plumber and an electrician. I finally found my calling...retirement... and doing what ever the "F" I want...That's the best job of all!

[MakeWar87]

retirements gotta rock, I like all the experiments they are doing with african tribes to date back to the growt of man its really interesting. They took blood of a african tribesmen who had never left his village and found similiar dna in a man whose family had lived in indonesia for lastfew generations and had never heard or been to africa. It kinda opened my eyes to see if its actually possible to track human evolution through people by reversing the process and reversing tracks of the first hominids to migrate away from their home into the unknown. Its kinda an obsession but yeah the recent problems in africa really bother me due to the fact that a lot of deaths could be prevented by things we call consumer products found in our pharmacies.