so what's the damages:civil war in Iraq

[remo williams]

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/02/26/weekinreview/26weis.html

interesting article,preceeded by one about al saddr making an"honor pact" with the sunni clerics...hopefully this will calm things down a bit...but in the unfortunate event that civil war does breakout..do any of you think it'll be contained to just Iraq? personally i think it'd definately fracture the middle east in gereral..cause conflict in that area for years to come,give rise to a newer generation of terrorists who blame the US for basically setting the conditions for that conflict,while obl sits back and laughs.hopefuly this pact will carry ALOT of weight and that scenario can be avoided..your thoughts
http://www.yahoo.com/s/239904

[ogukuo72]

The Western media is panicking over this now, and it is hardly surprising. They do tend to panic a lot.

Is the situation serious? Yes it is. But it is also an opportunity. All sects and factions are being brought to the brink to see what lies in the abyss.

How will they act? Will they act responsibly? If they do, and they manage to calm the situation down, this will strengthen Iraqi democracy and nation. That is why the next few weeks is absolutely critical.

Here's my bet: the Sunnis, taking a look into the abyss realise that if Iraq plunges into a civil war, they will be biggest losers. Their only hope of retaining any power or influence is through the democratic process. This is why they will join the Shias and the Kurds to clamp down on al-Qaeda and its attempts to drag Iraq into chaos.

I believe that Al Qaeda had made a serious miscalculation here.

[Clarsachier]

=remo williams

...hopefully this will calm things down a bit...but in the unfortunate event that civil war does breakout..do any of you think it'll be contained to just Iraq? personally i think it'd definately fracture the middle east in gereral..

You'd have to define 'fractured'. It certainly seems fractured now.

What's being played down politically, is the fact that the golden mosque bombing was not a "senseless act of terrorism" as the U.S. administration
is portraying it.

It was an act calculated to achieve exactly the effect it is having, likely
planned way in advance and executed by ' the insurgency' with perfect timing.

It's easy to see the insurgency being able to continue this indefinately. I could easily see the Iraqi's coming to the conclusion that the only solution
is an Iraq partitoned the way it was before 1921. With one main difference ;
Iran's Shia government.

[remo williams]

You'd have to define 'fractured'. It certainly seems fractured now.
actually it's not..so much as it could be.imho,fractured to me would be sunni/shiite sects in countries not involved reacting an millitarizing..."call to arms" etc..eventually taking action by either infiltrating iraq to "fight the good jihad" and or by uprising their gov't in their home countries either bacause their gov't took a neutral stance or backed (at least for them)the wrong opposing side.this could be done (from what i've seen as catalyst effects)as simply as backing the us call for peace,innaction,even a crack down on protests and rally's...it'd provide the fuel for "those" who'd use such to fuel further conflict.while i see that there are those of both sects intelligent enough to see that a sectarian conflict is nothing but bad news..those involved,the uneducated,those who are out of work and are already pissed about that..i feel the calls to peace,the rationality etc will be lost as we've seem by the cont'd violence over the weekend.

[Frogg]

I think this has been one of the worst attacks against democracy in Iraq in years. I think it is the most dangerous time in this battle for Iraq we have ever had. And, I don't know where things will go from here any more than than the next guy. But, sometimes.....out of the ashes.....things can rise even better than before. I would simply say, at this point, that if the Iraqi's can pull through this together....and, get their government formed inspite of this setback......then I doubt anything could stop them from here on out.

We've heard about the tension and violence.

But, there is another side....



Thursday, February 23, 2006

We Are All Misinformed!

You guys always said you don’t get all the news from Iraq. And I always agreed with you!

I was shocked today when I read the news in the foreign newspapers. No one emphasized the marvelous cooperation and solidarity between the Shiites and the Sunnis in Iraq yesterday after the bombing of one of the most respected and visited holy sites in Islam, the Askariyah shrine, which is in Samarra city north of Baghdad.

<snip>

continue reading full blog post at:
http://twentyfourstepstoliberty.blogspot.com/2006/02/we-are-all-misinformed-you-guys-always_23.html





On the mosque bombing

Reader Haider Ajina has forwarded us his translation of a two articles and provided his own commentary on the mosque bombing that John wrote about last night. First Haider provides the translations:

The following is my translation of a headline and news published by the Iraqi Arabic newspaper "Aswataliraq" on February 23.




"Iraqis of Samarah start rebuilding bombed Shrine...,and demonstrate for national unity."

"People of Samarah started local campaign to clean up ruble and start rebuilding the bombed Shrine, while other residence joined a demonstration calling for national unity. The crowd chanted 'Not Sunni Not Shiite...one one national unity.' The governor of Salahudien province announced that the province had received four billion Iraqi Dinars (2,800,000 USD) from the National Government & the Sunni Endowment party to help with rebuilding efforts. Local police reported that thousand of residences have voluntarily gathered at the damaged shrine to clean up debris since sun up.

"Local police further reported that thousands of local residences formed a demonstration, which headed to city hall. Demonstrators were chanting 'Not Sunni Not Shiite...one one national unity.' The demonstration dispersed by noon with out incidents.

"The governor of Salahudien province Hamed Alqaisi announced in a press conference that clean up and repair of the shrine has indeed started this AM. Alqaisi added; 'The shrine will be restored to its former glory if not even better, by loyal Iraqi hands.' As far as catching the culprits the governor said; 'A large coalition of Interior ministry, Salahudien police, the Sunni Endowment party and all who have security or management responsibility of the holy shrine has been formed. This coalition has started its investigation immediately after the heinous attack and will publish its report with in a few days.'"

The following is my translation of a headline and news published by the Kuwaiti Arabic news agency KUNA on February 23.

"Iraqis form local Shiite committees to protect Sunni Mosques in Basra and the south."

"Large (peaceful) demonstrations broke out again today in Basra, protesting the heinous attacks on a Shiite shrine in Samarah. Over 100,000 protesters participated chanting condemnations against the attacks and calling for self-restraint and following religious instructions (from leading religious references) for calm. Sheik Abdul Husein Almuhamdawi (a religious leader in the province) said; 'Local national Shiite committees have been formed to protect local Sunni mosques from over zealous individuals.' A source in the local Basra police leadership mentioned that 'Talha' mosque and two other mosques in southern Basrah were subject to light gunfire but no one was injured."
http://powerlineblog.com/archives/013235.php






The defense minister in a press conference currently on Iraqi TV gave statistics to correct what he described as "exaggerated media reports" about civilian casualties and attacks on mosques since the attack on the Samarra shrine:

Mosques attacked/shot at without damage: 21 not 51
Moderately damaged: 6 not 23
Mosques destroyed totally: 1 not 3
Mosques occupied by militias: 1 not 2 (evacuated later).
Civilians killed: 119 not 183

http://iraqthemodel.blogspot.com/






Iraq Civil War sitrep

http://billroggio.com/archives/2006/02/iraq_civil_war_sitre.php#more

[Clarsachier]

You'd have to define 'fractured'. It certainly seems fractured now.
actually it's not..so much as it could be.imho,fractured to me would be sunni/shiite sects in countries not involved reacting an millitarizing..."call to arms" etc..eventually taking action by either infiltrating iraq to "fight the good jihad" and or by uprising their gov't in their home countries either bacause their gov't took a neutral stance or backed (at least for them)the wrong opposing side.this could be done (from what i've seen as catalyst effects)as simply as backing the us call for peace,innaction,even a crack down on protests and rally's...it'd provide the fuel for "those" who'd use such to fuel further conflict.while i see that there are those of both sects intelligent enough to see that a sectarian conflict is nothing but bad news..those involved,the uneducated,those who are out of work and are already pissed about that..i feel the calls to peace,the rationality etc will be lost as we've seem by the cont'd violence over the weekend.

The fact that the artificial state of Iraq is falling apart now that there's nobody holding the disparagate ethnic groups together by force seems a no-brainer to me.

The U.S. administration's niavely overlooking this cultural factor has enabled Iran to influence the Iraqi Shia that their interests are much more represented by them than the artificial state the U.S. is trying to impose on them all.

Even without this scenario, the Kurd's economic autonomy alone would have been a major hurdle. Civil war between the Shia and Sunni is also in the interests of Kurdish automomy.

At the same time, the U.S.'s aquisition of a 30 year lease on Talill airbase tells the world that we don't intend to leave. And the unacceptability of that
is one thing all these groups have in common.