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05-01-2006, 10:17 AM
Wedge Issue: Minimum Wage
Democrats Try to Split Republicans
With Midterm Ballot Initiatives
By JEANNE CUMMINGS
May 1, 2006; Page A4
WASHINGTON -- As Republicans resist efforts to raise the federal minimum wage, Democrats see the issue boosting party turnout in November's midterm elections -- and their chances of gaining seats in Congress.
Six states are expected to have a minimum-wage increase on their ballots this fall, and efforts are under way in at least three more states to collect enough signatures to place it on those ballots.
Among the six is Arizona where Democratic challenger Jim Pederson plans to use the issue to appeal to independents and moderate Republicans in his quest to unseat Republican Sen. Jon Kyl, who hasn't taken a position on the wage increase. "We think voters understand that $5.15 an hour just isn't enough for folks to get along on," says Kevin Griffis, Mr. Pederson's spokesman.
It's a strategy stolen straight from Republicans, who for more than two decades have used ballot initiatives to create wedge issues and whip up excitement among core voters. Some analysts credit the Republican-driven Ohio ban on gay marriage for giving President Bush a critical lift in the 2004 presidential race. Social conservatives are pressing that initiative again this year in at least six states, while fiscal conservatives are pushing for caps on state taxes and spending on ballots throughout the country.
For Democrats, the trick has been finding issues with the right combination of results: They energize their own base voters, split the Republican base and can't be labeled a government spending program that demands tax increases. Democrats already have tested and rejected ballot initiatives calling for health-care benefits and smaller classroom sizes because they didn't meet the last test.
But Democrats are getting some help from the four-person staff at the Ballot Initiative Strategy Center, a Washington progressive think tank and political-advocacy group funded by labor unions and foundations that has spent the past six years trying to discover the right formula for Democratic candidates.
The project is beginning to show some success. Colorado Democrat Sen. Ken Salazar credits a ballot-initiative promoting renewable energy with appeal to young people and moderate Republicans as aiding his 2004 victory. And Missouri Democrat Claire McCaskill this year is aligning her campaign against Republican Sen. Jim Talent with a popular ballot initiative allowing privately funded embryonic stem-cell research.
The minimum-wage campaign represents an attempt by Democrats at using a ballot initiative to create a national message for the campaign season.
Several academic studies have shown that ballot initiatives can be particularly effective in midterm elections, when they can boost turnout as much as eight percentage points. In presidential campaigns, however, the impact is generally much smaller and sometimes even negligible in some states.
Still, ballot initiatives can create sharp distinctions between candidates, as the gay-marriage issue did between President Bush and Democratic hopeful Sen. John Kerry, whose home-state judges in Massachusetts added fuel to the debate in 2004 by declaring such unions legal.
Voter initiatives also can elevate an issue that normally might not register strongly with voters. A 2004 survey, for instance, found that people surveyed in the 11 states where gay marriage was on the ballot were more likely -- by six percentage points -- to say it was an important issue than those in states without such initiatives. "That's a huge factor," says Daniel Smith, a University of Florida associate professor who has written books on the impact of ballot initiatives and has consulted with the Democrats' ballot strategy center.
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/images/NA-AI679_BALLOT_20060430184008.gif Democrats first tested the minimum-wage issue in Washington state in 1998, a year after Congress raised the rate to $5.15 an hour. The initiative passed easily and raised the state's minimum wage to $6.50 an hour. The initiative was the highest vote-getter of all issues and candidates. Post-election polling suggested it boosted turnout by four percentage points, which helped widen the victory margin of incumbent Democrat Sen. Patty Murray and paved the way for Democrats to pick up eight state House seats and win control of the state Senate.
Democrats rolled out the issue again in 2004 in Florida and Nevada and drew lessons from its mixed success in that presidential year.
In Florida, the ballot measure passed, but there is scant evidence it helped candidates, including Mr. Kerry, who never endorsed it. In contrast, Nevada Democrats running for state office wrapped themselves around the issue, and the state's formidable unions used it to drive turnout. The result: The wage increase passed, Democrats held control of the Nevada Assembly and Mr. Kerry came close to winning the state.
This year, Democrats and organized labor are pressing Congress for an increase to $7.25 by 2008. The Senate rejected the measure last year, yet another Senate vote could come possibly as early as this spring. However, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and other business interests oppose it, dimming chances of passage before November.
A new wrinkle in the Democratic effort this year is an effort to convert the minimum-wage issue into a moral one. That could rebut conservative charges that some Democrats are hostile to people of faith and provide their candidates with a chance to quote Bible passages urging rewards for honest work and supporting working-class families. "This is part of our values agenda," says Kristina Wilfore, the ballot initiative center's executive director.
A Presbyterian minister, the Rev. Trina Zelle is the lead organizer for the Interfaith Worker Justice of Arizona, a group that is helping to generate signatures to put minimum wage on Arizona's ballot. "I could quote scripture to you for hours," she says. "The message is very consistent and very clear, you just don't take advantage of vulnerable people. 'To whom much is given, much is expected.'"
Republicans have taken notice. When Democrats began organizing earlier this year to put the issue on ballots in Michigan and Arkansas, Republicans in the state legislature passed wage increases to keep it off the campaign agenda.
The Arizona Chamber of Commerce opposes the initiative but recognizes its potent populist punch. "We've seen it pass in red states," like Nevada, says Farrell Quinlan, a chamber spokesman. If, as expected, it gets onto the Arizona ballot, the chamber hasn't decided if it will launch a full-scale campaign against it. "We aren't kidding ourselves to think that it would be anything other than an uphill battle," Mr. Quinlan adds.
Write to Jeanne Cummings at jeanne.cummings@wsj.com1
URL for this article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB114644237570740071.html
1234567890-
Democrats Try to Split Republicans
With Midterm Ballot Initiatives
By JEANNE CUMMINGS
May 1, 2006; Page A4
WASHINGTON -- As Republicans resist efforts to raise the federal minimum wage, Democrats see the issue boosting party turnout in November's midterm elections -- and their chances of gaining seats in Congress.
Six states are expected to have a minimum-wage increase on their ballots this fall, and efforts are under way in at least three more states to collect enough signatures to place it on those ballots.
Among the six is Arizona where Democratic challenger Jim Pederson plans to use the issue to appeal to independents and moderate Republicans in his quest to unseat Republican Sen. Jon Kyl, who hasn't taken a position on the wage increase. "We think voters understand that $5.15 an hour just isn't enough for folks to get along on," says Kevin Griffis, Mr. Pederson's spokesman.
It's a strategy stolen straight from Republicans, who for more than two decades have used ballot initiatives to create wedge issues and whip up excitement among core voters. Some analysts credit the Republican-driven Ohio ban on gay marriage for giving President Bush a critical lift in the 2004 presidential race. Social conservatives are pressing that initiative again this year in at least six states, while fiscal conservatives are pushing for caps on state taxes and spending on ballots throughout the country.
For Democrats, the trick has been finding issues with the right combination of results: They energize their own base voters, split the Republican base and can't be labeled a government spending program that demands tax increases. Democrats already have tested and rejected ballot initiatives calling for health-care benefits and smaller classroom sizes because they didn't meet the last test.
But Democrats are getting some help from the four-person staff at the Ballot Initiative Strategy Center, a Washington progressive think tank and political-advocacy group funded by labor unions and foundations that has spent the past six years trying to discover the right formula for Democratic candidates.
The project is beginning to show some success. Colorado Democrat Sen. Ken Salazar credits a ballot-initiative promoting renewable energy with appeal to young people and moderate Republicans as aiding his 2004 victory. And Missouri Democrat Claire McCaskill this year is aligning her campaign against Republican Sen. Jim Talent with a popular ballot initiative allowing privately funded embryonic stem-cell research.
The minimum-wage campaign represents an attempt by Democrats at using a ballot initiative to create a national message for the campaign season.
Several academic studies have shown that ballot initiatives can be particularly effective in midterm elections, when they can boost turnout as much as eight percentage points. In presidential campaigns, however, the impact is generally much smaller and sometimes even negligible in some states.
Still, ballot initiatives can create sharp distinctions between candidates, as the gay-marriage issue did between President Bush and Democratic hopeful Sen. John Kerry, whose home-state judges in Massachusetts added fuel to the debate in 2004 by declaring such unions legal.
Voter initiatives also can elevate an issue that normally might not register strongly with voters. A 2004 survey, for instance, found that people surveyed in the 11 states where gay marriage was on the ballot were more likely -- by six percentage points -- to say it was an important issue than those in states without such initiatives. "That's a huge factor," says Daniel Smith, a University of Florida associate professor who has written books on the impact of ballot initiatives and has consulted with the Democrats' ballot strategy center.
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/images/NA-AI679_BALLOT_20060430184008.gif Democrats first tested the minimum-wage issue in Washington state in 1998, a year after Congress raised the rate to $5.15 an hour. The initiative passed easily and raised the state's minimum wage to $6.50 an hour. The initiative was the highest vote-getter of all issues and candidates. Post-election polling suggested it boosted turnout by four percentage points, which helped widen the victory margin of incumbent Democrat Sen. Patty Murray and paved the way for Democrats to pick up eight state House seats and win control of the state Senate.
Democrats rolled out the issue again in 2004 in Florida and Nevada and drew lessons from its mixed success in that presidential year.
In Florida, the ballot measure passed, but there is scant evidence it helped candidates, including Mr. Kerry, who never endorsed it. In contrast, Nevada Democrats running for state office wrapped themselves around the issue, and the state's formidable unions used it to drive turnout. The result: The wage increase passed, Democrats held control of the Nevada Assembly and Mr. Kerry came close to winning the state.
This year, Democrats and organized labor are pressing Congress for an increase to $7.25 by 2008. The Senate rejected the measure last year, yet another Senate vote could come possibly as early as this spring. However, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and other business interests oppose it, dimming chances of passage before November.
A new wrinkle in the Democratic effort this year is an effort to convert the minimum-wage issue into a moral one. That could rebut conservative charges that some Democrats are hostile to people of faith and provide their candidates with a chance to quote Bible passages urging rewards for honest work and supporting working-class families. "This is part of our values agenda," says Kristina Wilfore, the ballot initiative center's executive director.
A Presbyterian minister, the Rev. Trina Zelle is the lead organizer for the Interfaith Worker Justice of Arizona, a group that is helping to generate signatures to put minimum wage on Arizona's ballot. "I could quote scripture to you for hours," she says. "The message is very consistent and very clear, you just don't take advantage of vulnerable people. 'To whom much is given, much is expected.'"
Republicans have taken notice. When Democrats began organizing earlier this year to put the issue on ballots in Michigan and Arkansas, Republicans in the state legislature passed wage increases to keep it off the campaign agenda.
The Arizona Chamber of Commerce opposes the initiative but recognizes its potent populist punch. "We've seen it pass in red states," like Nevada, says Farrell Quinlan, a chamber spokesman. If, as expected, it gets onto the Arizona ballot, the chamber hasn't decided if it will launch a full-scale campaign against it. "We aren't kidding ourselves to think that it would be anything other than an uphill battle," Mr. Quinlan adds.
Write to Jeanne Cummings at jeanne.cummings@wsj.com1
URL for this article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB114644237570740071.html
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