More Fallout and Analysis Over the Spanish Vote

[BlackRain]

Spanish vote casts shadow across allies

Spanish Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar's electoral defeat in the wake of terrorist attacks in Madrid has raised concerns among U.S. and foreign officials about whether terrorists can drive other American allies from office.

"This was a big defeat for us," a Pentagon official said. "Al Qaeda caused a regime change better than we did in Baghdad. No cost."

Also, a White House official said any attack against a nation that has battled terrorism as tenaciously as Spain "sends a terrible message" to other countries engaged in the global war against terrorism.

The concerns came as Spain's incoming prime minister yesterday repeated his campaign vow to pull his nation's 1,300 troops out of Iraq by June 30, unless "the United Nations take control and the occupiers give up political control."

Socialist Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero also criticized President Bush for deposing Saddam Hussein, telling a Spanish radio network that "the war in Iraq was a disaster."

However, other members of the anti-Saddam coalition, including Australia, Britain and Poland, held firm yesterday.

Australian Prime Minister John Howard, who is up for re-election later this year, downplayed the possibility of terrorists driving him from office with a similar attack.

"I think it's drawing a pretty long bow to start comparing what happened in Spain to what might happen at the end of this year," said Mr. Howard, who supported Operation Iraqi Freedom. "I think people ought to take a bit of a cold shower on that and not get too excited."

But Doug Bandow, a senior fellow at the Cato Institute, said al Qaeda might conclude from Sunday's election results in Spain that they have the power to punish leaders who supported Mr. Bush's liberation of Iraq.

Particularly vulnerable are leaders who backed the United States in the face of intense domestic opposition.

"Governments that acted without the strong support of their own peoples are very vulnerable," he said. "I mean, up to 80 percent of Spaniards opposed the war."

Meanwhile, other U.S. allies in Operation Iraqi Freedom vowed to continue supporting the United States, despite the Madrid bombings and pressure from opposition lawmakers. Polish Prime Minister Leszek Miller said he would not withdraw troops leading a multinational force in southern Iraq.

"It would amount to an admission that the terrorists are right and that they are stronger than the whole civilized world," Mr. Miller said.

Several Latin American nations and Japan also said yesterday they would not reconsider their decisions to send troops to Iraq.

Spain's threat to pull out was roundly condemned yesterday by conservative politicians in Western Europe.

"It's a dangerously naive option," said Italian lawmaker Emma Bonino, a former senior European Union official and a political ally of Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi. "It would be irresponsible for Spain or anyone to leave Iraq and hence bolster a civil war there."

She said it also would encourage terrorists to kill across Europe, hoping for further changes of course.

"Whoever is calling for pulling out troops is just obeying the political agenda of [Osama] bin Laden," added Mrs. Bonino, who said she initially had opposed the launching of the Iraq war.

A senior figure in Britain's Conservative Party, Michael Portillo, lamented that terrorists had managed to topple a democratic government and "will now think they can do the same at future elections all around Europe."

In an interview with the BBC, British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw warned yesterday that all Western countries were under "a threat from Islamic extremism."

"No one should believe that somehow if you say, 'I opposed the military action in Iraq,' that this makes you safer or exempts you as a potential victim," he said.

In October, Poland and Spain were named as targets on a taped message attributed to bin Laden.

"We reserve the right to respond at the appropriate time and place against all the countries participating in this unjust war [in Iraq], particularly Britain, Spain, Australia, Poland, Japan and Italy," said the voice on the tape, broadcast on Al Jazeera.

A posting on Global Islamic Media, a Web site that supports al Qaeda and is monitored by intelligence agencies, said on Dec. 10 that attacks on Spain could help the Socialists domestically and result in Madrid pulling out of Iraq.

The upcoming Spanish general elections "must be exploited in the extreme," the posting noted. "We think the Spanish government will not stand more than two blows or three at the most before it will be forced to withdraw [from Iraq] because of public pressure."

The tract, prepared by the Centre for Services to the Mujahideen, added: "If [Spanish] forces remain after these blows, the victory of the Socialist party will be almost guaranteed, and the withdrawal of Spanish forces will be on its campaign manifesto. Lastly, we assert that the withdrawal of Spanish or Italian forces from Iraq will create tremendous pressure on the British presence which Tony Blair may not be able to bear.

"So the dominos will fall quickly — but the basic problem remains, how to bring down the first one."

Vice President **** Cheney said last week's attacks in Madrid merely proved that the world must continue to aggressively root out terrorism.

"The attack in Spain once again reveals the brutality of our enemy and once again shows that the fight against terrorism is the responsibility of all free nations," Mr. Cheney told Republicans at a Phoenix fund-raiser. "The terrorists are testing the unity and the resolve of the civilized world, and we must rise to that task."

The electoral defeat of Mr. Aznar was a blow to Mr. Bush, who met with him exactly one year ago today in the Azores to map strategy on the eve of war. The Spanish leader and his wife, Ana Botella, who was running for political office, both privately expressed concern to Mr. Bush that their support for war was enormously unpopular.

The president urged them to stand strong and expressed hope that their leadership would be rewarded at the ballot box.

After Mr. Aznar's defeat Sunday, Mr. Bush placed a ceremonial telephone call to his successor to offer congratulations yesterday.

"The two leaders said they both looked forward to working together, particularly on our shared commitment to fighting terrorism," White House spokesman Scott McClellan said.

British Prime Minister Tony Blair, Mr. Bush's closest ally in the Iraq war, made a similar courtesy call to fellow socialist Mr. Zapatero, which Mr. Blair's office described as "warm and friendly."

•Rowan Scarborough in Washington and Paul Martin in Madrid contributed to this report.

Source: http://washtimes.com/national/20040316-121404-1835r.htm

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I have no doubt Blair will get on great with the new spannish PM, despite what this article thinks, people forget he's great friends with Clinton, who has come to speak at his conferences in the past.

[BlackRain]

Spain's Socialist Victory May Hamper U.S.-European Terror Fight

March 16 (Bloomberg) -- Socialist leader Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero's victory in Spain's election may widen the divide between the U.S. and the European Union just when closer cooperation is needed to fight terrorism, said politicians and analysts including Dominique Moisi, adviser to the French Institute for International Relations.

The party of Spanish Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar, 51, was ousted Sunday amid evidence that a group-linked to al-Qaeda carried out the Madrid bombings that killed 200 people last week to punish him for supporting the Iraq war. Zapatero, 43, threatened yesterday to pull Spanish troops out of Iraq and called the war a ``disaster.''

``Clearly there is a new balance of power in Europe, with Spain forming a club of three with France and Germany,'' said Moisi, reached by phone in Warsaw. ``It constitutes a further strain between Europe and the Bush administration.'' The two biggest EU nations opposed the Iraq war.

The Socialist victory in Spain may leave U.K. Prime Minister Tony Blair and Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi more isolated in their cooperation with the U.S. invasion of Iraq. Zapatero pledged to make Spain ``more European than ever,'' saying he will seek to improve relations with France and Germany that were strained by Aznar's tilt toward the U.S.

Proof of an al-Qaeda attack in the heart of Europe will test the future of U.S.-European cooperation in counter-terrorism efforts, said Jim Lindsay, vice president and director of studies at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. Since the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on the U.S., ``it's been tremendous,'' he said.

Bush and Zapatero

U.S. President George W. Bush and Zapatero spoke for 10 minutes yesterday, talking about the war on terrorism without touching on Zapatero's pledge to pull troops out of Iraq, said White House spokesman Scott McClellan.

The threat of a Spanish pullout won't bring about ``any weakening in support of Iraq'' from other countries, State Department Spokesman Adam Ereli said at a briefing in Washington yesterday. Nor does it create concern about ``the future success of what we're all trying to accomplish in Iraq.''

Voters in the U.S. may react to the terrorist attacks in Spain by turning toward Bush, said Stephen Hess, a Brookings Institution scholar in Washington who has written books on campaigns.

``The strong point in all polling for George W. Bush is his position on terrorism,'' Hess said. ``In a strange way, I would read it that any major terrorist event in the world probably subliminally would assist George W. Bush.''

John Kerry, Bush's probable Democratic opponent, would be wise to do nothing more than express his sympathy to the people of Spain, Hess said. ``You'd be best not to turn it into something'' by suggesting Spain shouldn't have supported the U.S., Hess said.

Eastern Europe

``We respect the right of the people of Spain to choose their leaders in the democratic process,'' said David Wade, Kerry's campaign spokesman, in an interview.

The change in Spain may also strain relations between the existing EU countries and incoming members such as Poland and Hungary, which join May 1. France rebuked Poland and other of EU candidate nations for signing on to a letter with Spain and the U.K. in Jan. 2003 backing the U.S. in the runup to the war. Poland has 2,400 troops in southern Iraq and has the Spanish forces under its command. Hungary, Ukraine and Romania were among other Eastern European countries that supported the war and are participating in reconstruction.

The bombing in Spain ``will not lead us to withdraw our Polish troops from Iraq because we are over there to fight international terrorism,'' Polish Prime Minister Leszek Miller said at a press conference to announce a general alert for possible terrorist attacks the day after the Thursday bombings.

``As long as the global war with terrorism lasts, we must be prepared for this danger.''

Arrests

The Spanish vote may influence Ukraine's Iraq presence. Lawmakers may consider tomorrow resolutions drawn up after the Spanish bombing to bring the country's 1,800 peacekeepers home, Ukrainska Pravda on-line newspaper reported.

High on any list of Zapatero's challenges is solving the bombing of commuter trains in Madrid. Aznar's government first blamed the Basque terror group ETA, even as evidence mounted of an al-Qaeda link.

The arrests on the eve of the election of five suspects, included three Moroccans with possible ties to Islamic extremist groups, fueled Zapatero's victory, confounding polls taken before the bombings that indicated Aznar's handpicked successor, Mariano Rajoy, would be elected.

``We must work with the U.S.,'' said Italy's European Affairs Minister, Rocco Buttiglione, at a conference in Milan yesterday. ``A world in which the U.S. and Europe are divided is a world which is no longer secure for democracy.''

Blair, Berlusconi

The greatest political threat to Blair and Berlusconi, who face re-election in the next two years, may come from voters concluding that favoring the U.S. in Iraq increases the risk of terrorist attacks at home, said Peter Kilfoyle, a former defense minister in Blair's government.

``People are very likely to draw the conclusion that because of the war and support for the U.S., they have become an increased target for terrorism,'' Kilfoyle said. ``It's given a fresh impetus to lunatics like Osama bin Laden, and that's something that's going to haunt leaders like Tony Blair.''

Voters may also recall that the Spanish government first tried to shift the blame to the Basque terror group ETA. It persuaded the United Nations Security Council to adopt a resolution condemning ETA in the attack hours after the bombings. Javier Solana, the Spaniard who is the EU's foreign policy chief, also publicly blamed ETA on the day of the attacks.

German Role

The government insistence that ETA was the prime suspect even as evidence of the al-Qaeda link grew led thousands of Spaniards to protest on the eve of Sunday's vote outside PP headquarters across the country. They demanded information before the vote and shouted opposition to the government's support for the war.

``Voters recoil when they perceive that politicians are trying to exploit a tragedy,'' said James Rubin, a former assistant U.S. Secretary of State and now a partner in the public affairs company Brunswick Group Inc. in London. ``There is a risk of a backlash'' against Blair and others, he said.

The Madrid attack may push Germany to become more assertive in confronting the U.S. in the war on terrorism. Germany urged a meeting of European Union interior ministers to discuss security following the Thursday train bombings. And French Foreign Minister Dominique de Villepin called for an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council.

No Connection

European stocks dropped yesterday, led by insurers and carmakers, after a videotape found in Spain on Saturday, purportedly from al-Qaeda, claimed responsibility for the bombings and said more attacks are planned. Spain's IBEX 35 Index led a retreat by 17 Western European benchmarks, falling 4.2 percent, its biggest decline in a day since July 2002. It was up 1.08 percent at 1:30 p.m. Madrid time today.

British officials say there isn't a connection between backing the U.S. and an increased terrorist threat.

``No one should get the idea that somehow if you are a country that was opposed to the military action in Iraq, you are less of a target,'' Foreign Secretary Jack Straw told British Broadcasting Corp. radio.

U.K. intelligence agencies told Blair in February 2003 that a U.S.-led war in Iraq would increase the threat of terrorist attacks on British interests by al-Qaeda, Parliament's all-party Intelligence Committee found in September.

In November, bombs in the British consulate in Istanbul, and an office of HSBC Bank Group Plc in that city, killed 62 people. Other countries that supported the war have been targeted. In Iraq, 26 Italian soldiers were killed in a suicide bomb attack in November, an attack that was linked to al-Qaeda. Ten Spanish officials have also been killed in Iraq.

Source: http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000085&sid=aPldzc5x.rfM&refer=europe

[BlackRain]

Vote reflects Spaniards' anti-U.S. views
Supporting Bush may have doomed Aznar's party

Madrid -- The hand-lettered sign at the sidewalk memorial for the 200 victims of last week's deadly train bombings starkly summed up a sentiment of many who came to pay respects Monday afternoon. It read: "They Died to Support Bush."

Sunday's stunning electoral defeat for the ruling party of Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar, one of President Bush's closest European allies, reflected a late surge of public anger over the government's support for the U.S.-led war in Iraq triggered both by the attacks and by the sense that the government had sought to exploit the bombings for political gain, according to political analysts and voters.

Several added that it also reflected a sense of alarm and despair that seems to cut across the political spectrum over the way the United States is wielding power in the world.

"We love America -- Faulkner, Hemingway, Coca-Cola and Marilyn Monroe - - but we have something against your government," said Luis Gonzales, 56, a high school Spanish literature teacher, as he stopped to view the rows of candles, flowers and makeshift signs at the central Puerta del Sol. "Aznar took us into a war that wasn't our war, but only for the benefit of the extreme right and the American companies."

Some analysts said the vote cast doubts about Spain's commitment to the war on terrorism and warned that the extremists responsible for last week's attacks would view the results as a clear-cut victory. They warned that European leaders, such as Italy's Silvio Berlusconi, who sided with Washington in the Iraq war could face similar electoral upheaval and the threat of a terrorist strike on their own civilian populations.

Virtually all agreed that the result would have impact far beyond Spain's borders. "It's important to see Spain as part of a much wider phenomenon, not only European but global, and what's affected the election there could affect other countries and other elections as well," said Mark Leonard, director of the Foreign Policy Center, a London-based think tank.

While little hard polling data was yet available, analysts pointed to an unexpected level of voter turnout -- which at 77 percent was nine points higher than the 2000 elections -- and the participation of 2 million first- time voters as indicating a last-minute surge against the ruling Popular Party. The winning Socialist Workers' Party and a number of regional anti-government parties also gained support in autonomous provinces.

Usually, analysts expect a dramatic disaster such as last week's synchronized attacks on morning rush-hour commuters to solidify support for governing parties with well-defined law-and-order policies. At first, when officials blamed the Basque separatist movement known as ETA for the bombings, the pattern seemed to be holding, with opinion polls suggesting the ruling party might increase its grip on power. The Aznar government has been widely credited for taking a tough stance against ETA.

But in the ensuing 48 hours, as suspicion shifted toward Islamic extremists connected with the al Qaeda network, the tide seemed to turn. Opposition politicians and journalists alleged that the Aznar government was withholding evidence implicating al Qaeda, triggering unprecedented street demonstrations outside Popular Party headquarters in Madrid and in other major cities on the eve of Sunday's elections.

While ETA is widely seen as an unavoidable domestic enemy that has to be confronted, many voters believed al Qaeda would never have targeted Spain had Aznar not supported Bush in the Iraq war. "Americans need to understand that Bush's attitude is causing more hatred and more terrorism," said Marie Isabel Garcia, 31, a foreign language graduate student who visited the Puerta del Sol memorial.

Others said their votes reflected both a lack of confidence in Spain's intelligence and security services, which failed to detect warning signals that the attack was imminent, and a lack of trust in Aznar, who has been accused of manipulating and selectively using intelligence information for political purposes. Recent disclosures that the American and British governments used faulty intelligence on Iraq's access to weapons of mass destruction to justify the Iraq war compounded the government's credibility problem.

In the end, those issues overshadowed the government's recognized success in managing Spain's economy.

Some of the highly visible anti-American sentiment here is aimed directly at Bush, who is viewed by many as a hard-liner with no empathy for other countries. Several people at the Puerta del Sol singled out Bush's televised expression of sympathy following the train bombings as insensitive.

"He was cold and aloof," complained Elena Nicolas, a civil servant in her late 30s. "He didn't even bother to wear a black tie."

Many here believe Aznar has adopted a servile stance toward the United States. In contrast, Socialist Party leader Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero stressed his independence and willingness to criticize Washington. Many approvingly cited an incident during last October's Columbus Day military parade when Zapatero sat down as the American flagged passed by. "It's not my flag," he reportedly said later.

Zapatero's image as a relative political neophyte was also widely seen as an advantage. He promised voters what he called "full transparency," implying that Aznar and his Cabinet had been less than honest in the aftermath of last week's attacks. Previous episodes, such as claims that Aznar's government had concealed damaging information about a major oil spill off Spain's Atlantic coast two years ago, fed the perception that the outgoing leader and his party were not trustworthy.

"All the negative elements of his political personality were shown at this stage, and the election became a plebiscite against Aznar," said Antonio Lorsa, a University of Madrid political scientist.

But Jose Varela Ortega, vice president of the Ortega y Gasset Foundation, a Madrid think tank, said Spanish voters resented the war on terrorism because of a natural tendency to opt for a policy of ignoring or appeasing violent extremists.

"It is very human to blame the policeman and not the criminal," he said. "You see it in France and Germany and to a large extent in Spain -- that the best thing to do is to let them alone, the Saddam Husseins of this world, and nothing bad will happen. The policeman is the troublemaker, and (the Americans) are the policeman of the world."

Source: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2004/03/16/MNGGM5LMJ31.DTL

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of all the european coutries the one that faced most anti-war sentiment over iraq was spain. Polls in the UK went up to just over 50% at the start of the conflict. Previous terrorist attacks in europe have done nothing to change the vote in other elections so this jumpy fear the US have that their going to loose their allies for the war in Iraq is unwaranted.

[BlackRain]

of all the european coutries the one that faced most anti-war sentiment over iraq was spain. Polls in the UK went up to just over 50% at the start of the conflict. Previous terrorist attacks in europe have done nothing to change the vote in other elections so this jumpy fear the US have that their going to loose their allies for the war in Iraq is unwaranted.

I hope that is the case. However, the Ukraine is now considering withdrawing it's troops from Iraq in light of the Spanish vote.


The Spanish vote may influence Ukraine's Iraq presence. Lawmakers may consider tomorrow resolutions drawn up after the Spanish bombing to bring the country's 1,800 peacekeepers home, Ukrainska Pravda on-line newspaper reported.

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I can't speak for the Ukraine, I havn't been there and I don't know any ukrainians

[rafaelcb]

There has been a lot of silly writing about the consequences of PSOE's victory in Spain. Please remember that this is the same party that used to organize demonstrations against NATO and then joined NATO when they were in the government. (BTW, Mr. Javier Solana, EX-NATO general secretary and now EU's Mr. Pesc is a member of PSOE)
For the moment all that Mr. Zapatero has said is that the troops will return UNLESS there is a UN authority in Irak. The UNLESS is the clue.
There are already some signs that this will be like that. 'El Pais' newspaper (pro-socialist) has a long article defending that the troops should remain, and 'Canal+' (again pro-socialist) right now showed a Zapatero-puppet singing: "My first promise, My first compromise; My first lie, Troops will return from Irak" ;)

Just relax and let's concentrate on finding those bastards :bash: