ariweiner
03-17-2004, 10:55 PM
US's foes set to pounce
By Syed Saleem Shahzad
KARACHI - While the United States-led coalition makes its latest attempt to round up Taliban and al-Qaeda fighters on the Pakistan-Afghan border, new evidence is reinforcing the certainty that the Afghan resistance isn't just sitting around waiting to get caught, and nor is the International Islamic Front going to relent in its determination to wreak havoc on the US and its allies elsewhere.
High-level sources tell Asia Times Online the Afghan resistance movement and the International Islamic Front - a loose umbrella for a network of cells dedicated to jihad against America - have finalized plans to enter a decisive phase of their offensive, aimed at forcing the US-led coalition out of Afghanistan by inflicting injuries on the interests of the US and its allies both on and off the battlefield.
On the Afghan-Pakistan front
Pakistan was informed quite some time ago that US forces will be launching operations that will result in a major clashes with Afghan guerrillas, who are expected to try to melt into the Pakistani mountains. However, this is not the complete story. According to sources, different groups of trained jihadis left Karachi for Pakistan's tribal areas of South and North Waziristan about two weeks ago, where they have now taken up position for their own attacks on the US-led forces. These jihadis are said to have been trained for suicide attacks in Kashmir against Indian troops. Now their targets will be both Pakistani and US troops. Pakistan has already mobilized 70,000 troops in those same tribal areas - especially in South Waziristan, Bajur Agency and Mohmand Agency.
The Afghan resistance has adopted a strange modus operandi. Though the resistance is clearly does not follow an organized pattern yet, orders are trickling down from Taliban leader Mullah Omar, not by any modern means but through Mullah Obaidullah and Mullah Bruther. These two Taliban officials hold meetings with different commanders once every six months, when the commanders are informed of the plan of action and targets. Even their warfare strategies are quite basic; however the Afghan resistance is sure to make an impact on the US as soon as the snow melts from Afghan terrain.
Pakistani authorities, meanwhile, have set up another operation in Wana to compliment the US's recently launched operation Mountain Storm. But in a dramatic development, Pakistani tribals have refused to comply with federal government orders and have jointly demanded the withdrawal of Pakistani forces. Tribal groups are even said to have threatened Pakistan that if tries to launch another operation there, war will be inevitable. As a result, the operation has come to a halt while Pakistan seeks ways of taking face-saving steps in front of US authorities.
Since the US-led "war on terror" began over two years ago, it has brought little other than despair to Afghanistan. Though the US disposed of the Taliban regime after two months of intense bombardment, it has failed to fill the political vacuum. Anarchy and instability remain the order of the day. Because of this, the "war on terror" has been taking on an unseen enemy with no known hide outs. It emerges from somewhere, attacks, and disappears to somewhere else. This game of hide-and-seek is able to continue through the Taliban's proven ability to regroup after carrying out small attacks and suicide missions. The Taliban is now aiming to retake major Afghan cities in the near future.
But this is not the lone aspect of the US dilemma in Afghanistan. The areas which are out of Taliban trouble - Kabul, Pansher, Mazar-i-Sharif, etc - are controlled by warlords. At present, there are at least 30 powerful warlords who do not listen neither to Afghan interim President Hamid Karzai nor the US. There is now strong cognizance on the US's part that with the passage of time, several factors are compounding to US woes in Afghanistan.
Therefore, the aim of the US is to catch Osama bin Laden dead or alive and leave Afghanistan, saving face by handing over the reins of power to "moderate Taliban".
This week's visit of US Secretary of State Colin Powell to Pakistan and Afghanistan is expected to involve the finalizing of agendas in the US's ongoing offensive. Powell's ultimate mission is to arrive at strategies that will free the US from the Afghan quicksand into which the Bush administration is sinking ever deeper.
Meanwhile, well placed sources maintain that in a review meeting between Pakistan and US intelligence officials recently, the failures of previous operations in Pakistani tribal areas were discussed. The blame was leveled at several Pakistani officials connected with the planning of the operations, who are said to have been part of an organized system of leakages.
Pressure is mounting on Pakistan to help the US complete its agenda in Afghanistan, or face the possibility of sanctions over the country's nuclear proliferation through the ties of Pakistani scientists to Libya, North Korea and Iran.
The global plan of attack
The International Islamic Front's global operations are likely to kick off when the Afghan resistance clashes with US coalition forces in major Afghan cities in the coming weeks. It is then that the network is expected to exert pressure on the US and its allies through more terror attacks, a new game that is likely to begin in Pakistan.
The present war - the US versus the International Islamic Front - is a situation unprecedented in history, involving a superpower and an opponent with no state, no organized force, only a few known people, and a live-wire ideology that is creating an expanding network of cells inspired by al-Qaeda. In many radical Muslim organizations, breakaway factions are being established which support and follow bin Laden's program - whether they are in touch with him or not. This is the situation in Iraq, where even the Baath Party split and gave birth to jihadi factions. This is happening within Pakistani jihadi outfits as well, with members breaking away and becoming bin Laden followers.
Amid these developments, bin Laden is unlikely to surface. Sources say the International Islamic Front will carry out operations on the directives of just a few individuals who visit their contacts only occasionally in various regions. There is, once again, a likelihood that the coming months will see a major attack: a plane hitting a skyscraper in the US or a "dirty bomb" being detonated in a strategic place in the United Kingdom.
By Syed Saleem Shahzad
KARACHI - While the United States-led coalition makes its latest attempt to round up Taliban and al-Qaeda fighters on the Pakistan-Afghan border, new evidence is reinforcing the certainty that the Afghan resistance isn't just sitting around waiting to get caught, and nor is the International Islamic Front going to relent in its determination to wreak havoc on the US and its allies elsewhere.
High-level sources tell Asia Times Online the Afghan resistance movement and the International Islamic Front - a loose umbrella for a network of cells dedicated to jihad against America - have finalized plans to enter a decisive phase of their offensive, aimed at forcing the US-led coalition out of Afghanistan by inflicting injuries on the interests of the US and its allies both on and off the battlefield.
On the Afghan-Pakistan front
Pakistan was informed quite some time ago that US forces will be launching operations that will result in a major clashes with Afghan guerrillas, who are expected to try to melt into the Pakistani mountains. However, this is not the complete story. According to sources, different groups of trained jihadis left Karachi for Pakistan's tribal areas of South and North Waziristan about two weeks ago, where they have now taken up position for their own attacks on the US-led forces. These jihadis are said to have been trained for suicide attacks in Kashmir against Indian troops. Now their targets will be both Pakistani and US troops. Pakistan has already mobilized 70,000 troops in those same tribal areas - especially in South Waziristan, Bajur Agency and Mohmand Agency.
The Afghan resistance has adopted a strange modus operandi. Though the resistance is clearly does not follow an organized pattern yet, orders are trickling down from Taliban leader Mullah Omar, not by any modern means but through Mullah Obaidullah and Mullah Bruther. These two Taliban officials hold meetings with different commanders once every six months, when the commanders are informed of the plan of action and targets. Even their warfare strategies are quite basic; however the Afghan resistance is sure to make an impact on the US as soon as the snow melts from Afghan terrain.
Pakistani authorities, meanwhile, have set up another operation in Wana to compliment the US's recently launched operation Mountain Storm. But in a dramatic development, Pakistani tribals have refused to comply with federal government orders and have jointly demanded the withdrawal of Pakistani forces. Tribal groups are even said to have threatened Pakistan that if tries to launch another operation there, war will be inevitable. As a result, the operation has come to a halt while Pakistan seeks ways of taking face-saving steps in front of US authorities.
Since the US-led "war on terror" began over two years ago, it has brought little other than despair to Afghanistan. Though the US disposed of the Taliban regime after two months of intense bombardment, it has failed to fill the political vacuum. Anarchy and instability remain the order of the day. Because of this, the "war on terror" has been taking on an unseen enemy with no known hide outs. It emerges from somewhere, attacks, and disappears to somewhere else. This game of hide-and-seek is able to continue through the Taliban's proven ability to regroup after carrying out small attacks and suicide missions. The Taliban is now aiming to retake major Afghan cities in the near future.
But this is not the lone aspect of the US dilemma in Afghanistan. The areas which are out of Taliban trouble - Kabul, Pansher, Mazar-i-Sharif, etc - are controlled by warlords. At present, there are at least 30 powerful warlords who do not listen neither to Afghan interim President Hamid Karzai nor the US. There is now strong cognizance on the US's part that with the passage of time, several factors are compounding to US woes in Afghanistan.
Therefore, the aim of the US is to catch Osama bin Laden dead or alive and leave Afghanistan, saving face by handing over the reins of power to "moderate Taliban".
This week's visit of US Secretary of State Colin Powell to Pakistan and Afghanistan is expected to involve the finalizing of agendas in the US's ongoing offensive. Powell's ultimate mission is to arrive at strategies that will free the US from the Afghan quicksand into which the Bush administration is sinking ever deeper.
Meanwhile, well placed sources maintain that in a review meeting between Pakistan and US intelligence officials recently, the failures of previous operations in Pakistani tribal areas were discussed. The blame was leveled at several Pakistani officials connected with the planning of the operations, who are said to have been part of an organized system of leakages.
Pressure is mounting on Pakistan to help the US complete its agenda in Afghanistan, or face the possibility of sanctions over the country's nuclear proliferation through the ties of Pakistani scientists to Libya, North Korea and Iran.
The global plan of attack
The International Islamic Front's global operations are likely to kick off when the Afghan resistance clashes with US coalition forces in major Afghan cities in the coming weeks. It is then that the network is expected to exert pressure on the US and its allies through more terror attacks, a new game that is likely to begin in Pakistan.
The present war - the US versus the International Islamic Front - is a situation unprecedented in history, involving a superpower and an opponent with no state, no organized force, only a few known people, and a live-wire ideology that is creating an expanding network of cells inspired by al-Qaeda. In many radical Muslim organizations, breakaway factions are being established which support and follow bin Laden's program - whether they are in touch with him or not. This is the situation in Iraq, where even the Baath Party split and gave birth to jihadi factions. This is happening within Pakistani jihadi outfits as well, with members breaking away and becoming bin Laden followers.
Amid these developments, bin Laden is unlikely to surface. Sources say the International Islamic Front will carry out operations on the directives of just a few individuals who visit their contacts only occasionally in various regions. There is, once again, a likelihood that the coming months will see a major attack: a plane hitting a skyscraper in the US or a "dirty bomb" being detonated in a strategic place in the United Kingdom.