China Says Won't Sit by if Taiwan Turmoil Worsens

[pinkeye]

China Says Won't Sit by if Taiwan Turmoil Worsens
Fri Mar 26, 8:57 AM ET


By John Ruwitch

BEIJING (*******) - China, in its strongest statement yet on the political crisis convulsing Taiwan since its controversial election, warned on Friday it would not stand idly by if the situation on the island spirals out of control.



"We will not sit by watching should the post-election situation in Taiwan get out of control, leading to social turmoil, endangering the lives and property of our flesh-and-blood brothers and affecting stability across the Taiwan strait," Beijing's policy-making Taiwan Affairs Office said in a statement.


It reiterated that China was paying close attention to events on the island, which has been racked by protests and political paralysis since President Chen Shui-bian, who favors Taiwan independence, won re-election by the thinnest of margins on Saturday. The opposition immediately contested the result and demanded a recount.


The statement gave no further details. Beijing regards Taiwan as a renegade province and has threatened to use military force to bring it back to the fold.


China's response came after angry supporters of defeated Taiwan presidential challenger Lien Chan stormed the Central Election Commission on Friday, but failed to stop it from formally declaring Chen the winner.


The president edged Saturday's poll by just 30,000 votes out of 13 million cast, one day after surviving an apparent assassination attempt.


The protesters at election headquarters in central Taipei threw rocks and eggs and scuffled with helmeted riot police carrying shields before storming into the building where commission members were meeting.


Two burning petrol bombs were found outside the headquarters of the opposition People First Party, said a spokesman for the party, which is allied with Lien's Nationalists. No damage or injuries were reported.


China has not commented directly on the result of the election to avoid playing into Chen's hands, but it has played up the opposition protests in reports carried in domestic media.


Analysts said China, which regards Chen with deep suspicion, clearly would have preferred the more moderate Lien.


Beijing and Taipei have been rivals since their split at the end of a civil war in 1949, but trade, investment and tourism have blossomed since the late 1980s.


Shortly after the vote, Beijing condemned Chen for holding the island's first referendum in tandem with the presidential vote, but said only that it was closely monitoring post-election developments. On Tuesday, the Foreign Ministry stressed that no matter who won, Taiwan belonged to China.

[scm77]

If China were to invade taiwan, the US would HAVE to defend taiwan. They have an agreement to protect taiwan from China and possibly other countries.

[ßå$tĮТHÏ¿ð]

"We will not sit by watching should the post-election situation in Taiwan get out of control, leading to social turmoil, endangering the lives and property of our flesh-and-blood brothers and affecting stability across the Taiwan strait,"

They call the Taiwan people in turmoil because they choose the route of independance? Complete and utter bull**** if you ask me...those Chinese are looking to start **** while everyone else's army is busy in other parts of the world.

[Threelions]

i think the chinese are just puffing out their chests and actually have no hope in hell of launching a successful invasion. It would be the perfect time to do so. The yanky military would be extremely stretched to provide support for taiwan. As taiwan is no longer a member of the Un and not recognized as a legitimate government by most of the world they would be hard pressed to find help from anyone else if the states were unable to defend them. Very interesting.

[SeanAshi]

Another sicky situation, we are obligated to defend Taiwan but can we? I'm sure Japan and South Korea wouldn't lift a finger to help them.

[HELEX]

If they start an Invasion they have to be fast, the chinese Navy is very weak. To weak.....

[M1A2U2]

You all forget that the 1st infantry division is still waiting for action. that is our big hammer

[WolverineBlue]

That'd be the 2nd Infantry Division, and they live in Korea.

[AK-Lover]

Yeah against like what> probably 150-200 000 invading chinese with air and armour support. This situation kinda reminds me of kosovo. Excapt china has nukes, Tu-16,22 intercontinental bombers and a huge army. Taiwan belongs to china since they are purely chinese. Imagine Florida broke away or something and russian and china said they would protect "floridians" against american oppression! rofl

[HELEX]

@AK-Lover

You forgot something, the Chinese cant walk over Water an their Tanks cant drive over it, their whole Navy has no chance against a single US carrier Group. Same thing about their Airforce. Take a look at a Map, Taiwan is an island.... :roll:

USA maybe can not occupie china, but it is able to blow them out of the Sky and sea.

[Operation Ivy]

@AK-Lover

You forgot something, the Chinese cant walk over Water an their Tanks cant drive over it, their whole Navy has no chance against a single US carrier Group. Same thing about their Airforce. Take a look at a Map, Taiwan is an island.... :roll:

USA maybe can not occupie china, but it is able to blow them out of the Sky and sea.

Helex no matter how many facts you point out to AK-Lover he will not listen to anybody but himself :|

[AK-Lover]

good point helex but they do ahve some amphibious capability and also capability to drop paratroopers. And also don't forget China can press a couple buttons to and ther goes New York, LA, Washington, Seattle etc.

[Dalleer]

good point helex but they do ahve some amphibious capability and also capability to drop paratroopers. And also don't forget China can press a couple buttons to and ther goes New York, LA, Washington, Seattle etc.

Hmm, I do believe that the Chinese have the capability to target the cities located in the western coast of the US, not the eastern.

So Los Angeles would surely be one of the targets, at least.

Someone care to comment ?

[GrimmyRX]

It's kinda doubtful that it would disintergrate into Nuclear War over a shythole likt Taiwan, lol.

Lots of Chest beatings, lots of angry words, maybe a mass scuffle or two, but Nuclear War? eh, now adays, China and US would be more like :hug: than like :fork:

[HELEX]

There is no nuclear thing in this thing, they get the Island and win or they dont and loose. After that a cease Fire is signed. Very simple.

About Chinas Amphibius capabilitys:


Compared to the surface combatants, the development of China's amphibious fleet has been slow and insignificant during the past two decades. Recent improvements in the PLA Navy's amphibious capabilities have included several Type 072-II (Yuting class) 4,800-ton tank landing ships (LSTs), which replaced the eight 1940s-era U.S.-made 4,000t L-511 LSTs in service with the PLA Navy since 1949.

Currently the PLA Navy operates around 60 large and medium amphibious ships, including 20 relatively capable Yuting and Yukan class tank landing ships (LSTs) and around 40 medium landing ships (LSMs), most of which were built in the 1960s/70s. In addition, the PLA Navy's amphibious capabilities also include 200-300 conventional utility landing craft (LCUs), around 40 air cushion landing craft (LCACs), and some medium transport helicopters.

Meanwhile the development of the PLA Navy's amphibious forces mainly concentrates on the scenario of a possible amphibious assault on the coasts of Taiwan should it declares independency. Another possible battlefield for the amphibious forces is the islands in the South China Sea, where China and several neighbour countries all claim to have the sovereignty.

The PLA Navy has an insufficient number of large-scale and advanced landing ships and lacks such indispensable ship varieties as amphibious assault ships and dock landing ships. It is estimated that the PLA Navy is capable of lifting a force of 15,000 to 20,000 troops and some equipment in a regional (less than 30 hours of transit) amphibious assault. Once a port is secured, hundreds of merchant ships and thousands of fishing ships could be recruited for a lift of support personnel and heavy equipment. Shortcomings in long-range lift, logistics, and air support, however, hinders China's ability to project amphibious forces.

Amphibious ships are generally regarded as purely offensive forces. Because of its sensitivity, China has been keeping low profile in developing such a capability. Despite her ability to build large modern amphibious warfare ships such as amphibious assault ships (LHAs), China has showed no intension to expend its amphibious fleet significantly.

[SeanAshi]

What if it were like the Korean War, Chinese officers tell several hundred thousand Chinese soldiers to go on a suicide run, gonna need lots and lots of ammo.

[TRACER_BULLET]

Yeah against like what> probably 150-200 000 invading chinese with air and armour support. This situation kinda reminds me of kosovo. Excapt china has nukes, Tu-16,22 intercontinental bombers and a huge army. Taiwan belongs to china since they are purely chinese. Imagine Florida broke away or something and russian and china said they would protect "floridians" against american oppression! rofl



good point helex but they do ahve some amphibious capability and also capability to drop paratroopers. And also don't forget China can press a couple buttons to and ther goes New York, LA, Washington, Seattle etc.

Yet again you further prove your lack of intelligence ... :|
Get a grip & grow up. You need to get over your nuclear war fixation (along with all your raciest tendencies).
While it seems to be what you want ... the majority of the world fears and attempts to keep that from ever happening.

[Spooky]

AK - Lover, you're a moron. Then again, you also have a confederate flag in your avatar...

China would be capable of destroying San Diego, L.A., possibly some cities in Washington State. Unlikely that they'd use nuclear weapons. I'm honestly not familiar with the nuclear response policies of the United States (post coldwar) but I think it would be safe to assume that China would be a smoking hole in the ground afterwards.

The United States does not have the man-power to occupy mainland China and wouldn't do so. Chances are, we would send a relatively small number of troops to the Island itself and bring about our navy and air force on the southern half of the island. This would minimize the amount of air and seapower China could bring against us (not that China has a massive navy and airforce as it is).

In addition, I'm not sure if you're aware of this AK-Lover but Taiwan has a very large city on it. If you think Urban warfare was unfavorable to us in Vietnam, Somalia, Baghdad, etc., imagine what it would be like for an invading Chinese communist army. They'd be facing tiawanese troops, American troops (if we committed to intervention) and a very large population of disgruntled Taiwanese. They'd also face severe U.N. sanctions and the U.S., one of China's largest trading partners, would issue an embargo on all of China's exports. We also have a number of regional allies that have economic ties to Taiwan which would gladly do their part.

[AK-Lover]

jeez, I think you're ability to think was diminshed at this time, I didn't say I like nuclear war! WTF?! i only stated that china also has the ability to cause significant damage to the US mainland. calm down. :D

[AK-Lover]

And spooky that confederate flag is from a movie called 'pretty village, pretty fire" okay you uneducated klingon! :D

[Yard Ape]

jeez, I think you're ability to think was diminshed at this time, I didn't say I like nuclear war! WTF?! i only stated that china also has the ability to cause significant damage to the US mainland. calm down. :DYour wording suggested that you don't see the use of Nukes against the US as being an outlandish course of action for China. Think again.

[Spooky]

Sorry, coming from the North I have a knee-jerk reaction to seeing the confederate flag. I was wrong :oops:

You still don't know what you're talking about though :D

[Yard Ape]

And spooky that confederate flag is from a movie called 'pretty village, pretty fire" okay you uneducated klingon! :D
What is the significance of the movie to you? (why did you chose it as an Avatar)

[SpikeATGM]

If US ever intervene, most likely it will only be in the form of air support and naval support. US is unlikely to commit large number of ground troops.

[Yard Ape]

If US ever intervene, most likely it will only be in the form of air support and naval support. That is all they would have to contribute to deny China the ability to supply/reinforce/sustain a force in Taiwan.

[Mark Sman]

Don't forget the Taiwanese military.

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/taiwan/

Yeah, GS isn't the bestsource, but it'll giive you an idea that Taiwan ain't gonna sit there and take it.

I don't know this for a fact, but I'm going to make a guess. I bet the Taiwanese military doesn't suffer from the same type of budget problems that the Chinese military does. The Taiwanese per troop expenditure is probably much higher. I bet their command gear (commo, EW, ELINT etc.) is much better. Combine that with a rapidly increasing US Navy presence, and it makes a cross straights amphib operation a huge headache.

Not saying they couldn't try it. Just saying the Taiwanese can handle what actually gets past their Navy and our Navy.

This would be a hugely destablising move.

Its and "OH MY F**K" type of move in chess.

[AFACadet]

China is not going to do jack **** now or in the near future.


They are not going to launch their 20 ICBMs to Seattle, SF, LA, or any other major military target because there are well over 2000 pointing back at them.


They are not going to invade because they don't have the Navy to do it with. The most they can do is send some airstrikes and missiles over. It could destroy Taiwan's infrastructure, but not their nation itself.

All it would do is get the world pissed off at China.

[Flagg]

Has anyone bothered to ask themselves what China stands to win/lose by attacking Taiwan?

Here's my opinion:

Attack/win:

China gets control of a battered nation state at an extremely high cost. Tens of thousands of casualties, and trillions of dollars lost as the world would spin into an economic meltdown and China becomes the pariah of the world.

Attack/lose:

China's government collapses due to internal and external pressure to remove responsible parties, after suffering thousands fo casualties and driving the world economy down the toilet.

Sounds like a lose/lose proposition to me.

China's government isn't that stupid.

The world sees Taiwan for what it is....a justified breakaway province of China.....once China makes real democratic reforms(or at least convinces world media) Taiwan has no choice but to merge with China.

China will be patient....why piss the world off by blowing up assets that will eventually(whether it be 5 or 50 years) become part of China?

They'll get it all without firing a shot.

[xjym2002]

Sounds like a lose/lose proposition to me.

China's government isn't that stupid.

The world sees Taiwan for what it is....a justified breakaway province of China.....once China makes real democratic reforms(or at least convinces world media) Taiwan has no choice but to merge with China.

China will be patient....why piss the world off by blowing up assets that will eventually(whether it be 5 or 50 years) become part of China?

They'll get it all without firing a shot.

Definitely a lose/lose. But even lose/lose could still be a choise in a given condition. Hope Taiwan's government isn't that stupid too.

BTW, I'd like to know you guys' opinion. Do you think Taiwan has the right to be independent from China? Or do you think a group of people in a certain territory have the right to be independent from their country?

[German_American]

Didn't they break away from China when it was really communist back in the 50's. In my opion any country has the right to break away from a commie nation.

[AK-Lover]

I didn't say china would attack taiwan, I was thinking in a what if sort of way. And also the movie "pretty village, pretty flame" has alot of significance to me because I was born in Yugoslavia a little before the war started and didn't really realize why my uncle's and friends dads weren't home anymore but I knew there was a war going on and people's stroies didn't really help. My grandpa's "milosevic is the saviuor of yugoslavia" my dad's "this is a stupid conflict and people are dying for no reason" and my mom's "we should just overrun all of croatia and bosnia an build a bigger and more powerful nation" so you can guess I was confused, then when this movie came out and I watched it without parents permission I saw serb soldiers burning villages but also saw muslims executing serbs and was very shocked at the brutal real-life violence that it portrayed as completely crazy and unessecary. I hope that expalins my avatar. :D

[Flagg]

BTW, I'd like to know you guys' opinion. Do you think Taiwan has the right to be independent from China?

Yes....but only until Mainland China has reformed......after that.....it eliminates the primary reason for Taiwan's very existence...which was to set up a Chinese government in exile on Formosa/Taiwan.


Or do you think a group of people in a certain territory have the right to be independent from their country?

That gets harder to answer...but I think in the case of Taiwan......there's no real option other than reunification once China has reformed.

I think Taiwan's existence is considered an embarrassment to the Chinese government...and that it will be a huge prestige coup to reunify, and no major economy will be willing to lose out economically by strongly opposing it after reform.

My guess is reunification in 10-20 years.....time dependant on how quickly democratic reforms are made.

[ogukuo72]

You know, even as near as a year ago, if you had asked me, I would have said that the US should defend Taiwan, but things aren't so straightforward for me anymore. Here's why:

1. In the past year, it is Taiwan - especially Chen Shui Bien - who is responsible for raising cross-straits tension. I feel that most of the statements made by Chen is highly irresponsible and provocative, and clearly aimed at rousing nationalistic sentiments to win the elections. This is highly irresponsible.

2. The new Chinese leadership after Jian Zemin retired, has demonstrated a new commitment to reform China's political system, rooting out corruption, and be more consultative. I was especially impressed by the resolute and pragmatic way they handled the SARS crisis, which was in contrast to the inefficient muddling of the Taiwanese government.

3. Except for the issue of Taiwan, China is much more valuable to the US as a counterpart (not necessarily an ally) than an enemy. With a quarter of the world's population, with rich resources, and an enormous consumer market, the US will benefit more. And so will the rest of the world. Instead of containing China, everybody will benefit more by co-opting China.

4. China has its own problems with muslim extremists. It borders important Central Asian states. As a strategic partner in the war on terror, China is far more useful. If the key strategic issue confronting the world today is terrorism, then China should be co-opted. Fighting a war over Taiwan is not only of no benefit to anybody, but will lead to a lose-lose situation for everybody.

In short, there's so much to lose for the US and for the rest of the world, if there's a war over Taiwan, especially if it is because of the irresponsible antics of a Hokkien boor.

[Mr Gently Benevolent]

Just when you hoped that the political situation in Taiwan would improve.

Taken from www.ft.com

Taiwan's president promises poll recount

By Kathrin Hille in Taipei

Published: March 28 2004 19:19 | Last Updated: March 28 2004 19:19





Taiwan's president Chen Shui-bian at the weekend promised a recount of disputed elections in an attempt to defuse a growing political crisis that is undermining his authority and rocking the financial markets.





Mr Chen also agreed to meet opposition leaders, who have challenged his March 20 election victory, which he won by a tiny margin of 0.2 percentage points.

Mr Chen acted after half a million people thronged the streets of Taipei in Taiwan's largest protest at the weekend, demanding a recount and an inquiry into the assassination attempt on him.

Opposition leaders also claim that he may have staged a shooting one day before the presidential race in which he was lightly injured and which earned him sympathy votes.

Analysts hope Mr Chen's backing for a recount will stop the slide in the markets. Opposition leaders say a recount could begin over the next two days after the president offered to sign a letter of consent to allow it to go ahead.

"Nobody is more eager than me to have a quick, complete recount," the president said. It took police seven hours to break up the rally, which was organised by the opposition Kuomintang (KMT). Protesters called for the overthrowing of "A-bian", referring to the president's nickname, and accused him of employing hardline tactics to destroy the island's democracy.

KMT have also filed a lawsuit demanding the nullification of Mr Chen's election victory.

Mr Chen's intervention to agree a recount is an important concession. The courts were unlikely to order a recount, given there is no evidence of irregularities in the voting stations.

Catching on widespread dissatisfaction with Mr Chen's government, Lien Chan, chairman and presidential candidate of KMT and his running mate James Soong, have tried to style themselves into leaders of a new democracy movement.

Lin Chia-lung, cabinet spokesman, said both sides could send experienced representatives to speed up the recount which could take months if conducted by judges only.

The president said on Saturday that he welcomed any respected experts proposed by the opposition to join the taskforce investigating the shooting incident. Prosecutors published pictures at the weekend of two men leaving the crime scene and said they could be suspects.

While making moves to accommodate voters' demands, Mr Chen also restated his government's authority.

"Even if you do not recognise A-bian as president and do not recognise A-bian's government, I am still the president, and the law of the Republic of China still exists," Mr Chen said.

Hsu Hsin-liang, a former chairman of Mr Chen's Democratic Progressive party (DPP) but now an opponent, declared Mr Lien the next president.

[xjym2002]

I had to say Taiwanese gained my respect with their peaceful protest march. People shows restraint and responsibility, which prove that they are not going to promote anarchy and violence, but to call for law and democracy. It might be because most of the protestors know the cost of violence is high, but I still admire their ability to handle protection.

It strengthen my belief that there will no war between mainland and Taiwan.