LATEST NEWS - Israel/Lebanon (Graphic Images)

[ed316]

8 Israeli soldiers killed in close-quarters fighting




Hezbollah has not released casualty figures since the fighting began, after the group captured two Israeli soldiers in a cross-border raid July 12.

http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/meast/07/26/mideast.main/index.html

[ed316]

http://wwwimage.cbsnews.com/htdocs/images/bigbluebox/bb_icon.gifDesperate Escape In Lebanon (http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/)
Only On The Web: A young American woman trapped in Lebanon told how she and her family narrowly escaped Israeli bombings and pleaded for an end to the violence. (http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/)


.......................

[DeltaWhisky58]

Nine killed in Israeli Gaza raid

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/41930000/jpg/_41930610_women203_afp.jpg
Most of those killed were said to be militants

At least nine people have been killed in Israeli air raids in the east of Gaza City, including a three-year old girl, according to medical sources.

Several members of the governing Hamas organisation were also amongst those killed, said a Hamas spokesman.
The raids come amid Israeli efforts to release a soldier captured by Palestinian militants last month.
More than 120 Palestinians and one Israeli soldier have been killed since Israel began rescue efforts.
The attacks on Gaza have been overshadowed by fierce clashes between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Several injured

In one strike, offices used by Hamas in Gaza City were also targeted.
About 30 Israeli tanks moved back into northern Gaza early Wednesday, backed by the air strikes.

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/41933000/gif/_41933692_gaza_jabaliya_203x152.gif

According to the BBC's Lucy Williamson in Gaza, the tanks stopped short of Gaza City and the refugee camp of Jabaliya.
Palestinian witnesses said one person was killed and 10 wounded after a tank shell exploded near a group of people.
Thirty-seven people were hurt in the air raids, including 16 in critical condition, AP news agency quoted Dr Joma Saka, a spokesman for Gaza City's Shifa Hospital, as saying. As well as attempting to free Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, Israeli units operating in Gaza have been trying to stop Palestinian militants from firing rockets into Israel.

BBC News Online (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/5215608.stm)

[DeltaWhisky58]

Day-by-day: Lebanon crisis - week two

A day-by-day look at how the conflict involving Israel and Lebanon is unfolding in its second week.

Day-by-day: Week one (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/5179434.stm)

TUESDAY 25 JULY


Israel's Defence Minister Amir Peretz says Israel will keep control over an area in southern Lebanon until a force of international peacekeepers is deployed.

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/41928000/jpg/_41928544_airstrike_tyreafp203.jpg
Israeli air strikes on Tyre in southern Lebanon continue



The idea of the multinational force will be high on the agenda of an international ministerial meeting on the crisis in Rome on Wednesday.
US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has completed her diplomatic tour of the region, meeting separately with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Israeli PM Ehud Olmert.

Mr Abbas calls for an immediate truce but Mr Olmert says there will be no let-up in army operations.
Ms Rice calls for peace across the region and expresses concern for the suffering of "innocent people".
UN observers say Israel has taken the town of Bint Jbeil, a Hezbollah stronghold in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah guerrillas continue to fire Katyusha rockets.
Israel resumes air raids on Beirut.

New force for peace? (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/5213092.stm)
UN criticises Israel force (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/5213174.stm)
The travails of escaping Lebanon (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/5211856.stm)
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/img/v3/videonews.gifDiplomatic tour of US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/help/3681938.stm)

MONDAY 24 JULY

US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice arrives in the Middle East, making a surprise stop in Beirut for talks with Lebanon's Prime Minister Fouad Siniora.

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/41926000/jpg/_41926180_crash.jpg
An Israeli helicopter crash killed two pilots



Ms Rice reportedly makes the release of the two Israeli soldiers and the withdrawal of Hezbollah forces from the border the pre-conditions for any ceasefire. She later moves on to Israel.

The UN launches an appeal for $150m (£81m) in aid and the US pledges a $30m aid package to begin on Tuesday.

UK PM Tony Blair says the situation in Lebanon is "a catastrophe", while UN Secretary General Kofi Annan says international ministerial talks in Rome on Wednesday must not fail.
Meanwhile, there is fierce fighting in southern Lebanon around Bint Jbeil.
An Israeli helicopter crashes in northern Israel, with two pilots killed. Hezbollah claims it shot the helicopter down; Israel disputes this. Air strikes continue on both sides.

Lebanese open homes for refugees (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/5211244.stm)
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/img/v3/videonews.gifDesperate Lebanese try to leave Tyre (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/help/3681938.stm)


SUNDAY 23 JULY

Israeli strikes hit southern Beirut, the Bekaa valley, Tyre, and - for the first time - Sidon, a southern port city full of refugees from the surrounding countryside. There are no confirmed reports on the number of Lebanese casualties.
A volley of Hezbollah rockets hits the northern Israeli city of Haifa, killing two people and injuring 15.
The UN's emergency relief co-ordinator, Jan Egeland, is shocked by the ruins he finds as he tours southern districts of Beirut. He says the large scale of the destruction, and its indiscriminate nature, renders it a violation of humanitarian law.
Israeli Defence Minister Amir Peretz says Israel would agree to the proposed deployment of a multi-national force in southern Lebanon and suggested it should be led by Nato.
Envoys from France and Britain also hold talks in Israel to look for ways to resolve the crisis. US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is expected in the region.
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/img/v3/videonews.gifThe aftermath of bombing in a Beirut suburb (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/help/3681938.stm)


SATURDAY 22 JULY

The Israeli army continues ground incursions into southern Lebanon. It says it has gained control of the village of Maroun al-Ras after several days of fighting and warns civilians in 14 specific villages to leave.
Troops continue to line up along Israel's northern border, but Israel says it is not planning a full-scale ground invasion.
Humanitarian concerns mount as thousands of Lebanese try to flee southern Lebanon. The UN pushes for secure routes for civilians to escape and much-needed aid to be delivered.
Israel targets Lebanese phone and television masts in air strikes, while Hezbollah fires dozens of rockets into Israel.
The death toll rises to at least 350 Lebanese and 34 Israelis.
Perilous escape for south Lebanese (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/5206446.stm)
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/img/v3/videonews.gifCivilians flee southern Lebanon (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/help/3681938.stm)


FRIDAY 21 JULY

Israel masses soldiers and tanks on the Lebanese border, called up thousands of reserves, drops leaflets on parts of southern Lebanon urging residents to leave.

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/41915000/jpg/_41915052_days.jpg
Israel has warned of a possible ground offensive


It maintains its bombardment of the country, hitting more than 40 targets, mainly in southern Beirut.

Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora says the offensive is now no longer against Hezbollah, but against Lebanon.
The evacuation of foreign nationals continues, with thousands more expected to arrive in Cyprus.

No refuge from bombs (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/5201622.stm)
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/img/v3/videonews.gifBritons evacuated onboard HMS Bulwark (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/help/3681938.stm)

THURSDAY 20 JULY

UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan calls for a ceasefire and stresses the need to let aid into the region.
Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert agrees to allow aid into Lebanon.

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/41915000/jpg/_41915028_wall.jpg
Many Lebanese fear their country is being utterly devastated



Heavy fighting erupts between Israeli troops and Hezbollah militants inside Lebanon's border. Two Israeli soldiers and a number of Hezbollah fighters are killed, according to the Israeli army.
Israel continues its bombing of Lebanon, carrying out 80 air strikes.

Hezbollah's leader Hassan Nasrallah appears on television, saying Israel has not dented its capabilities.
The Israeli army says that Hezbollah has fired 30 rockets into northern Israel during the day, but they do not cause any casualties.
The death toll reaches at least 306 people in Lebanon and 31 in Israel.
Evacuations continue, with many nations sending both military ships and chartered vessels to remove their citizens from danger.
Forty US marines come ashore to help around 1,000 US citizens in Lebanon - the first presence of US troops in the country since Hezbollah militants blew up a marine barracks in Beirut in 1983, killing 241 personnel.
But Cyprus, which is taking many of the evacuees, says it cannot cope with the influx and appeals to the European Commission for additional planes to fly people to their home countries.

Stranded in the war zone (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/5196076.stm)
Divided loyalties of Lebanon (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/5200628.stm)
Q&A: Mid-East war crimes? (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/5198342.stm)
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/img/v3/videonews.gifAnnan calls for ceasefire (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/help/3681938.stm)

WEDNESDAY 19 JULY

As Israeli forces bomb Lebanon for an eighth day, Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora appeals for an immediate end to the Israeli attacks on his country, saying more than 300 people had been killed by the Israeli air raids so far, with 1,000 wounded and 500,000 displaced.
Meanwhile, Israeli strikes hit Hezbollah positions in Beirut, as well as targets in southern and eastern parts of the country.
The military says its aircraft dropped 23 tonnes of explosives in an evening raid on a bunker in south Beirut where senior Hezbollah leaders, possibly including Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, were hiding.
But Hezbollah denies any of its "leaders or personnel" were killed and says the Israeli raid hit a mosque under construction rather than a bunker.
More than 60 civilians are killed in raids - 12 in the southern village of Srifa, near Tyre, six in the southern town of Nabatiyeh, and many more elsewhere in the south as well as Baalbek in the east.
Israeli troops cross into southern Lebanon to carry out what the army called "restricted pinpoint attacks". Two Israeli soldiers die in clashes with Hezbollah fighters inside Lebanon.
Rockets fired from Lebanon strike the northern Israeli city of Haifa, and kill two children in the Israeli Arab city of Nazareth. They are the first Arab Israelis to die in the rocket attacks.
Thousands of people continue to flee Lebanon. A British warship arrives in Cyprus, carrying the first 180 UK citizens. A Norwegian ferry takes hundreds of Norwegians, Swedes and Americans to Cyprus, while a US-chartered ship docks in Beirut to evacuate US and Australian citizens.

After meeting Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, the EU's foreign policy chief, Javier Solana, says he has seen the suffering of Lebanese civilians and it is nothing to do with the battle against Hezbollah - it was "disproportionate".
But Ms Livni says the Israeli military response is proportionate to the threat posed by Hezbollah to the entire region.

Fleeing in the line of fire (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/5195518.stm)
Tolerant Haifa tested (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/5193306.stm)
UK evacuation plan (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/5190816.stm)
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/img/v3/videonews.gifDevastation in Tyre (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/help/3681938.stm)

BBC News Online (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/5194156.stm)

[Futile Talisman]

It is good to see this thread still open, credit to the mods who have worked so hard to see that we can get updates and hear opinions on the current crisis and balancing that with the need to keep within the forum rules so things do not get out of control here.

Here is a story from today's Boston Globe.

Soldier mourned in his adopted land

Ukraine émigré dies carrying Israeli comrade

By Matthew Kalman, Globe Correspondent | July 26, 2006
KIBBUTZ LAHAV, Israel -- Sergei Volsiuk came to Israel from his native Ukraine at age 16 in search of a better life, and he died a hero's death.


Volsiuk, 21, was killed by a Hezbollah rocket-propelled grenade in southern Lebanon on Thursday as he carried a wounded comrade from the battlefield under heavy fire. He was laid to rest in a rough wooden casket with full military honors yesterday at his adopted home, the serene Kibbutz Lahav on the edge of the Negev desert.

Volsiuk, one of two dozen Israeli soldiers killed in the two-week-old conflict, was mourned yesterday by family, friends, and comrades in arms, soldiers from the elite Egoz commando unit. He was killed as Israeli forces fought a decisive battle for control of Maroun al-Ras, a village in southern Lebanon known as a center for Hezbollah guerrilla activity.
By the graveside, weeping quietly, were the soldier's two mothers -- one from his native country and his adopted kibbutz mother.

His Ukrainian mother, Yulia, flew in with his father, Vasily, and younger brother, Losha, from their home in Simferopol, Ukraine. As a military honor guard fired three shots over the grave, Yulia said during the service that she understood why he had adopted the name Jonathan. It means "God's gift" and was the name of King Saul's son, who also fell in battle.

You were indeed a gift from God," said Yulia, who said she never considered flying his body back to Ukraine. ``He was an Israeli citizen and he fulfilled his duty here, so he should be buried here. He loved the country very much." Sharing Yulia's tears was Dalit Gal, who took in Volsiuk as a newly arrived teenager at the kibbutz and groomed him for life in his new country.

"For six years, you were a son to me and a brother to my daughter," Dalit said at the graveside. ``You carried her on your shoulders around the kibbutz. I never saw you angry or in a bad mood. You will always be with us."

Overcome with emotion, fellow commando Rotem Cohen told the crowd of several hundred crammed into the tiny kibbutz cemetery of Volsiuk's expertise in map-reading and of his selfless commitment to helping others.
You sat up late, poring over maps and trails so you could lead us safely through dangerous terrain," Cohen said. "We first saw you at the training base, carrying a stretcher. And that was also our last sight of you, carrying a wounded comrade from the heat of battle, then running back into the fray without any thoughts for yourself."

"You were killed as you lived, worrying about us, your friends, more than you worried about yourself. You will always be a part of us," he said.
Volsiuk had been scheduled to leave the army in November and planned to set up house with his girlfriend. He dreamed of becoming a dentist. He arrived in Israel in the summer of 2000 with Na'aleh, an organization that looks after young immigrants arriving without their families.
Sergei Fishman, a fellow immigrant and friend from Na'aleh, described Volsiuk as " an example to us all."

"You were full of love for all around you," Fishman said. ``You lived every moment of your life to the fullest. Your afterworld is in our hearts. We thank your family for giving us such a dear friend."
© Copyright 2006 Globe Newspaper Company.




http://www.boston.com/news/globe/

[Zoomie]

Here's something interesting from a UNIFIL Press Release (http://www.un.org/Depts/dpko/missions/unifil/pr010.pdf) that came out today:
Another UN position of the Ghanaian battalion in the area of Marwahin in the western sector was also directly hit by one mortar round from the Hezbollah side last night. The round did not explode, and there were no casualties or material damage. Another 5 incidents of firing close to UN positions from the Israeli side were reported yesterday. It was also reported that Hezbollah fired from the vicinity of four UN positions at Alma ash Shab, Tibnin, Bra****, and At Tiri. All UNIFIL positions remain occupied and maintained by the troops. So where's Kofi's outrage on this?


And here's an interesting photo you won't see anytime soon:
http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/archives/upload/2006/07/flags.jpg
The UN and Hezbollah gettin' cozy and sharing facilities.
Lessons Learned
A cease-fire in Lebanon is a terrible idea.

BY JED BABBIN
Wednesday, July 19, 2006 12:01 a.m. EDT

U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan and British Prime Minister Tony Blair want to send an international force to separate Israel from Hezbollah terrorists in Lebanon. Mr. Blair said a U.N. force should be sent to "stop the bombardment coming over into Israel and therefore [give] Israel a reason to stop its attacks on Hezbollah." Mr. Annan said such a force could "pursue the idea of stabilization." But their idea assumes, first, that a cease-fire would protect those worthy of protection and, second, that restoring the region's antebellum "stability" would promote long-term peace. Both assumptions are utterly false.
Hezbollah is not some small, ragged band scattered around Lebanon. It is a huge terrorist structure, built over decades, that includes thousands of men, weapons, positions, offices and everything that enables it to control southern Lebanon. Israel is now destroying that infrastructure. A cease-fire would benefit Hezbollah and threaten Israel. It would protect both Hezbollah and the nations that support it--Syria and Iran--as well as the Lebanese who have accepted the terrorist organization as a legitimate part of their government. A cease-fire would allow Hezbollah to rebuild its power base and enable it to resume its attacks whenever Damascus and Tehran desired. For Israel, a U.N. force would create no security whatever against future attacks.

http://www.opinionjournal.com/images/storyend_dingbat.gif

The U.N.'s years-long record on the Israel-Lebanon border makes mockery of the term "peacekeeping." On page 155 of my book, "Inside the Asylum," is a picture of a U.N. outpost on that border. The U.N. flag and the Hezbollah flag fly side by side. Observers told me the U.N. and Hezbollah personnel share water and telephones, and that the U.N. presence serves as a shield against Israeli strikes against the terrorists. The Israeli response to the attack by Lebanon-based Hezbollah terrorists was much more violent and effective than Hezbollah, Iran or Syria expected. The Olmert government failed to make any significant response to previous raids from Gaza and Lebanon, which encouraged both terrorist regimes. The Syrian and Iranian regimes practice brinksmanship as their foreign policy. They attack as often as they can in as aggressive a manner as they believe will not trigger a decisive response. Iran wanted to distract the G-8 summit from agreeing to do anything about its nuclear weapons program, so it apparently told its Hezbollah surrogates in Lebanon that the time was ripe to begin a major offensive.
The Hezbollah attacks began about two weeks after Israel suffered the usual international condemnations for its response to the Gaza-based Hamas kidnapping of an Israeli soldier. Even after the Gaza incursion, Iran and Syria--emboldened by international condemnation of Israel's "disproportionate" response--were convinced that Israel would do no more than make token raids into Lebanon. For the first time, Israel has acted in accordance with what used to be President Bush's theory: that a government that contains, supports or harbors terrorists is responsible for their actions. Israel is now demonstrating that there is a price to be exacted from nations who collaborate with terrorists. The reason Israel must not agree to a cease-fire now, and why a U.N. force must be rejected is the fact that the Arab nations may be starting to open their eyes.

http://www.opinionjournal.com/images/storyend_dingbat.gif
An emergency Cairo meeting of the 18 Arab League nations' foreign ministers last weekend produced the most significant event in the region since Saddam Hussein fell from power. These meetings are routine, held in crises or for political posturing and on every occasion before last weekend have resulted in condemnation of Israel and the United States. This meeting began with the Lebanese Foreign Minister Fawzi Salloukh proposing a resolution condemning Israel's military action and supporting Lebanon's "right to resist occupation by all legitimate means" (which even the Associated Press report characterized as "language frequently used by Hezbollah to justify its guerillas' presence in south Lebanon"). The Lebanese draft also called on Israel to release all Lebanese prisoners and supported Lebanon's right to "liberate them by all legitimate means." The "Lebanese prisoners" are virtually all Hezbollah members and "legitimate means" translates to terrorism. The Syrian foreign minister, Walid Moallem, strongly supported Lebanon and Hezbollah. But a historic obstacle was raised that blocked the Lebanese endorsement of terrorism.
The Saudi foreign minister, Prince Saud al-Faisal, led a triumvirate including Egypt and Jordan that, according to the AP report, was "criticizing the guerilla group's actions, calling them 'unexpected, inappropriate and irresponsible acts.' " Prince Faisal said, "These acts will pull the whole region back to years ago, and we simply cannot accept them." These are the rumblings that precede a political earthquake. The Arab leaders are afraid that the acts of the terrorists they have coddled for decades might have consequences for them. And they are very frightened of what Iran may do next. We must reinforce those fears because they provide the first big lever with which those nations can be moved.

Read the Rest (http://www.opinionjournal.com/federation/feature/?id=110008672)

[saigonsmuggler]

Israel's New Battle Plan: Grinding It Out
The siege of Bint Jebel shows how Israel has learned that, despite its overwhelming technological superiority, it has to fight Hizballah on its own terms — in prolonged and messy ground battles
By TIM MCGIRK/JERUSALEM
In Hebrew, the word 'Merkava' means chariot, and the Israeli tank known as Merkava 4, is a mighty, steel-plated chariot of war. But in the stony hills of southern Lebanon, in battles where stealth is more valued than firepower, the chariot is reduced to being an ambulance, ferrying wounded commandos back across the border. And even then, the tank is proving to be less than invincible.

On Monday, two tanks were dispatched to pick up Israeli soldiers wounded in the siege of Bint Jebeil, a town used by Hizballah Islamic militants to spray the northern corners of Israel with rocket fire. The town also has symbolic value to Hizballah; it was here in 2000 that Hizballah chief Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah proclaimed victory after Israeli troops withdrew from Lebanon. The sheikh' s jeering remarks had riled the Israeli generals, so they didn't need any extra motivation this week when Bint Jebeil, its tunnels and caves stocked with rockets and over 100 Hizballah fighters, turned into a major target of the theirs.

As the two tanks came rumbling back with their wounded cargo, they came under fire. A missile blasted one of the Merkav 4s, killing a soldier and injuring a battalion commander. The second ran over a large explosive device planted by Hizballah that is identical to those used to such devastating effect against U.S. armored forces in Iraq. The force of the blast flipped over the 65 ton tank, killing the vehicle's commander and injuring three other crew. Earlier in the 12-day ground offensive, the Israelis had lost another tank to a hidden mine, killing four men.

Israel may have a technological superiority over Hizballah, but in the hide-and-seek dynamic of a guerrilla war, tanks and air strikes aren' t always enough. Some Israeli military officers are worried that the war is being waged the way the guerrillas want, dragging the Israeli Defense Forces into prolonged and messy battles on alien turf. Early on, the Israeli plan was to launch swift punches on the militants' rocket-launching positions and then to withdraw. But Hizballah began to play the game by their rules, drawing the Israeli troops into lengthy ambushes in places where their vaunted 21st century war machine was of little or no use. Not only were the guerrillas masters of the terrain, but they were equipped with top-of-the line anti-tank missiles. The first hard lesson was dealt to the Israelis in a hilltop village known as Maroun al Ras, just 500 meters from the Israeli border. What was intended as a lightning blow by the Israelis turned into a three-day slugfest.

Early on, the Israelis were reluctant to send lots of troops into the fray; Prime Minister Ehud Olmert wanted to keep down casualties and reassure the international community that Israel had no intention of grabbing real estate in Lebanon. And, according to military sources, the Israelis also lacked on-the ground intelligence, so they under-estimated Hizballah' s strength and its determination to punch it out. Despite the Israeli offensive, Hizballah still managed to sling over 2,000 rockets onto Israel.

But after the toll rose to 23 dead and 80 wounded, the IDF had learned their lesson. When it came to a ground offensive, big was better. No longer would they rely on small bands of commandos to flush Hizballah out of their trenches and underground hideouts. By Tuesday, the third day of the offensive, over 5,000 troops were called in to lay siege to Bint Jebeil, most of whose 30,000 Shi'ite inhabitants had long since fled. Facing that kind of full-scale onslaught, Hizballah's fighters have no choice but to flee by night or fight it out. "There is still fighting going on," an army spokesman told journalists on Tuesday. "I can't say we are in total control of the village yet."

With its large army and its overwhelming firepower, Israel will eventually pry the Hizballah militants off the Lebanese border. The problem is it could take weeks, or longer. In recent days, a note of caution has crept into the soundbites of various Israeli military officers. Gone are the boasts that Hizballah will be hammered into oblivion. Instead, they're urging diplomacy and calling for the presence of a robust international peace-keeping force along the border to halt Hizballah's rocketmen. Meanwhile, as casualties rise, many of Israel' s formidable chariots of war are being pressed into ambulance service.?

- With reporting by Aaron. J Klein/Jerusalem

http://www.time.com/time/world/printout/0,8816,1218814,00.html

[annihilation]

Israel may have a technological superiority over Hizballah, but in the hide-and-seek dynamic of a guerrilla war, tanks and air strikes aren' t always enough. Some Israeli military officers are worried that the war is being waged the way the guerrillas want, dragging the Israeli Defense Forces into prolonged and messy battles on alien turf. (http://www.time.com/time/world/printout/0,8816,1218814,00.html)

Could it also be said that the more technological armies also have to be more constrained in how they combat their enemies? They have to take much more precaution for civilians while the guerrilla fighter uses that to their advantage.

[americanbychoice]

CNN has picked up this story now (off of the wires)...

http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/meast/07/26/iran.volunteers.ap/index.html


Iranians volunteer to fight Israel

Group heads for 'holy war' in Lebanon

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) -- Surrounded by yellow Hezbollah flags, more than 60 Iranian volunteers set off Wednesday to join what they called a holy war against Israeli forces in Lebanon.


The group -- ranging from teenagers to grandfathers -- plans to join about 200 other volunteers on the way to the Turkish border, which they hope to cross Thursday. They plan to reach Lebanon via Syria on the weekend.

Organizers said the volunteers are carrying no weapons, and it was not clear whether Turkey would allow them to pass.


...

[Frogg]

In the back of my mind about the UN peacekeeper deaths......




The broader war against Israel

Melanie Phillips has a damning two part article on the War against Israel (http://www.melaniephillips.com/diary/?p=1291). I urge you to read both parts.

At the end of the second part she includes the following note;


Retired Canadian General Lew MacKenzie — who is speaking in Toronto tonight at a Stand with Israel rally — was interviewed on CBC Toronto radio this a.m.

He told the show’s anchor that he had received an e-mail only days before from the dead Canadian observor who was a member of his former battalion. MacKenzie says that the message indicated in effect that the UN position was being used as cover by Hezbollah, who, MacKenzie explained, can do so quite freely as they are not members of the UN and not subject, therefore, to official condemnation. MacKenzie further took issue with the misleading reportage (citing CNN in particular) that suggests that Beirut is being bombarded by the IDF and that the city is in ruins. He said that the bombing is no where near the saturation levels that constitute a bombardment and the IAF have specifically targetted a twelve-block area that is, more-or-less, Hezbollah City, and only after dropping leaflets warning civilians to vacate well in advance of the planned airstrikes


http://www.israpundit.com/2006/?p=1990



LATimes article confirms....


At the same time, Hezbollah has been blamed for placing its fighters and weapons in densely populated civilian neighborhoods, and near United Nations facilities.

Hezbollah guerrillas were setting up rocket launchers near U.N. positions, spokesman Milos Strugar said.

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-lebanon20jul20,0,4733925,full.story


So, knowing that......why didn't Kofi recall all UN peacekeepers???


And, just a reminder.....


http://www.cjnews.com/photos/aug15/flags.jpg


Also.....about Beirut being devastated.....



July 25, 2006

Devastation. What devastation?

http://www.israpundit.com/2006/wp-content/images/_Beirutaffectedareas2.jpg

Click on the picture for a larger map (go to link for clickables). Notice how small the area is that the bombing focused on. About the size of three race tracks.

You wouldn’t know it from the televised images.

http://www.israpundit.com/2006/?p=1981

[Irish_Army01]

Six One News: Richard Crowley reports on the series of meetings in the Middle-East held by US Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice http://www.rte.ie/news/images/video_sml_but.gif (http://dynamic.rte.ie/av/2160163.smil)

[Bootneck]

Retired Canadian Major General Lewis Mackenzie was interviewed on CBC radio, and had some very interesting news about the UN observer post hit by Israeli shells; the Canadian peacekeeper killed there had previously emailed Mackenzie telling him that Hizballah was using their post as cover.

The entire interview is a breath of fresh air:


We received emails from him a few days ago, and he was describing the fact that he was taking fire within, in one case, three meters of his position for tactical necessity, not being targeted. Now that’s veiled speech in the military. What he was telling us was Hezbollah soldiers were all over his position and the IDF were targeting them. And that’s a favorite trick by people who don’t have representation in the UN. They use the UN as shields knowing that they can’t be punished for it.



Interview audio available here:

http://littlegreenfootballs.com/weblog/?entry=21786_Canadian_General-_UN_Observer_Post_Used_By_Hizballah&only

[B Inman]

jerusalem post report on battle at Bint Jabiel


http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1153292001539&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

[DeltaWhisky58]

Nine Israelis killed in Lebanon

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The Israelis died in a battle for the town Bint Jbeil

Nine Israeli soldiers have been killed in fierce clashes with Hezbollah militants in south Lebanon.

Eight troops died near the town of Bint Jbeil, the biggest loss of life in a single incident so far during Israel's two-week campaign.
In Rome, UN-led crisis talks ended with no agreement to urge an immediate ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah.
The talks were overshadowed by an outcry after an Israeli missile killed four UN observers on Tuesday.
The eight Israelis were killed early on Wednesday morning as Israeli forces tried to take control of Bint Jbeil, a strategically located town near the border between Lebanon and Israel.

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Mid-East crisis map (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_depth/629/629/5177932.stm)
Future scenarios (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/5217882.stm)
How post was bombed (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/5216230.stm)

The Israeli army confirmed the deaths on Wednesday evening.
Israel says the town is a Hezbollah stronghold, used by the militants as a launching ground for the barrages of rockets fired daily into northern Israel.
Twenty-two soldiers were injured in the fighting, the Israeli army said.
A military source told the BBC that several soldiers were killed when the Israeli infantry were ambushed near the town shortly before dawn.
More were killed during a rescue operation, which was followed by an intense five-hour firefight.
Later, another Israeli soldier was killed in the border village of Maroun al-Ras, which Israel moved into over the weekend after several days of fighting.
In the southern city of Tyre, a massive explosion destroyed a six-storey building where a local Hezbollah leader was believed to have an apartment.
At least six people were injured, although the building was empty at the time.
Correspondents say Israel has been meeting stronger resistance from Hezbollah than it initially anticipated.
A senior Israel army general said he expected the fighting would continue for "several more weeks".
More than 405 Lebanese and 51 Israelis have died in violence since Hezbollah captured two Israeli soldiers in a cross-border raid on 12 July.
In other developments:

Hezbollah fired more than 150 rockets into Israel, injuring 31 people, security and medical sources say
Ten lorries loaded with food and medical supplies arrived in the southern town of Tyre from the capital, Beirut
More than 300 people - mainly US and Australian citizens - who had been caught in the fighting in southern Lebanon are due to leave from Tyre on a Canadian ferry on Wednesday evening.UN deaths

Details have emerged about the deaths of four unarmed UN observers after an Israeli air strike hit a UN post in south Lebanon on Tuesday.
UN staff had contacted Israeli troops 10 times to ask them to stop firing before a precision missile landed on the building, an initial UN report into the incident said.
Each time the UN contacted Israeli forces, they were assured the firing would stop, the report said.
Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has expressed "deep regrets" over the deaths.
Israel is conducting an investigation into the incident and has rejected accusations made by UN Secretary General Kofi Annan that the targeting of the UN position was "apparently deliberate".
White House spokesman Tony Snow said there was no reason to suggest the bombing was deliberate.
The UN Security Council is meeting to discuss the incident.

'Utmost urgency'

The Rome summit, called by US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, brought together EU and Arab nations plus the US and Russia, but not Israel, Iran or Syria.

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The UN deaths have provoked an international outcry

Despite an impassioned warning from Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora that more people would die if a ceasefire was delayed, the ministers stopped short of calling for an immediate truce.
In a joint statement, the ministers attending pledged to work "with utmost urgency" for a ceasefire.
But, reflecting the US position, they said a ceasefire "must be lasting, permanent and sustainable".
There was agreement on the need for an international force with a UN mandate for south Lebanon, but no details were given about which countries would provide troops or the rules of engagement.
Ms Rice expressed concern about Syria and Iran's support for Hezbollah.
But Mr Annan said it was important to work with the countries of the region, including Syria and Iran, to find a solution to the crisis. The BBC's Jonathan Beale says it seems the US got its way in the talks, and Mr Annan and the Arab nations represented at the summit will leave disappointed.

BBC News Online (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/5218926.stm)

[shocker1]

Nine IDF soldiers killed in bitter south Lebanon fightinghttp://www.haaretz.com/hasen/images/0.gif
By Amos Harel (contact@haaretz.co.il) and Eli Ashkenazi (elia@haaretz.co.il), Haaretz Correspondentshttp://www.haaretz.com/hasen/images/0.gif
Nine Israel Defense Forces soldiers died Wednesday and 27 others were injured in the hardest day of fighting in southern Lebanon since the war began two weeks ago. Five of the injured soldiers are in serious condition.

The IDF believes that Hezbollah lost 15 of its fighters in Wednesday's fighting.

Eight of the IDF dead - five soldiers and three officers - were from the Golani Brigade; they were killed in fighting in the town of Bint Jbail. The ninth soldier, a paratrooper, was killed last night in Maroun Ras.


http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/images/0.gifhttp://www.haaretz.com/hasen/images/0.gifAdvertisementThe IDF began its operation against Bint Jbail on Monday morning. By Tuesday evening, troops from the Golani and Paratroops Brigades had taken up positions on the outskirts of the town, and Golani soldiers had also entered some of the homes.

At approximately 5 A.M. Wednesday, Golani infantry entered Bint Jbail from the northeast and headed toward the center of town. The aim of the operation was to find and engage Hezbollah guerrillas and destroy their stores of arms.

According to initial reports, the guerrillas managed to ambush the IDF forces as they approached several homes on the outskirts of the town. Many of the Golani casualties occurred during this initial encounter, which took place at very close range.

The initial battle raged for about an hour. During the next three hours, other platoons entered the area in an attempt to extricate the force that was pinned down. Hezbollah forces fired antitank missiles and threw grenades at the force it had caught in its ambush, and it also used mortars to attack the supporting IDF units.

A total of 22 soldiers suffered injuries, including two platoon commanders. Three of the casualties were seriously wounded, four were moderately hurt and 15 had light wounds. The evacuation of the injured was particularly difficult because of the heavy fire in the area.

The IDF's Northern Command was initially reluctant to deploy attack helicopters in the battle, due to concerns that Hezbollah might succeed in shooting down one of them. However, the delay in the evacuation of the wounded led to a decision to deploy the helicopters.

The evacuation, which was finally accomplished only six hours after the start of the battle, utilized four Blackhawk helicopters that landed two kilometers from the scene of the fighting. The soldiers carried their injured comrades on foot to the improvised landing strip.

While the operation was being carried out, Bint Jbail was subjected to heavy and sustained fire, and the helicopter landing area was covered in smoke in order to conceal the choppers' presence from Hezbollah snipers and missiles. The helicopters stayed on the ground no more than a minute each before evacuating the wounded to Rambam Medical Center in Haifa.

The fighting in the town continued into the evening, and included aerial attacks on the center of the town by the Israel Air Force.

Later in the evening, in the nearby town of Maroun Ras, Hezbollah guerrillas fired an antitank missile at a force of paratroopers, killing one and seriously wounding two others. Another paratrooper suffered moderate injuries and two others were lightly hurt. All were evacuated to Rambam Medical Center in Haifa.

Major General Udi Adam, the GOC Northern Command, said Wednesday that "the soldiers displayed sangfroid, bravery and professionalism after they came under fire, and they succeeded in killing many terrorists. In the IDF, we estimate that at least 15 Hezbollah guerrillas were killed in the village. There are also assessments that put the number of casualties on the Lebanese side at 40 to 50 dead fighters."

Senior officers in the Northern Command said Wednesday night that at this stage, they have a very limited picture of what transpired.

However, officers in the Golani and Paratroops Brigades charged that the IDF employed insufficient force before the soldiers were deployed to search the homes. They said that once the civilians had been told to leave the town, the army should have regarded Bint Jbail as a battlefield and destroyed any home where Hezbollah guerrillas were suspected of hiding.

They also charged that not enough aircraft were used to attack targets.

The IDF's modus operandi in southern Lebanon in recent days has sparked great debate among all ranks of the army. Many field officers argue that insufficient forces are being deployed in the fighting and that the army is being ineffective against Katyusha rocket launchers.

Olmert to convene security cabinet
The prime minister will meet with the security cabinet Thursday morning to discuss the possibility of expanding the IDF operation in southern Lebanon.

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert convened a late-night meeting Wednesday with the group of seven ministers who are part of the security cabinet to discuss options and exchange views about the continuation of the operation in view of the rising casualties in battles against Hezbollah and the continued Katyusha rocket attacks against northern Israel.

It appears that the army is gradually moving away from its previous tactic of raids targeting specific positions along the border, in favor of one of capturing and temporarily holding a security zone whose aim would be to push the rocket launchers further north.

This strategy will not completely prevent the rocket attacks, but it will limit the scope of the threat against northern Israel.

A government source in Jerusalem said Wednesday night that the meeting of the security cabinet was not meant to reach a decision, but to prepare for Thursday morning's cabinet meeting. Until now, decisions have been made via limited consultations between the prime minister and Defense Minister Amir Peretz.

Olmert expressed support for the continuation of the operation in Lebanon, a view that he shares with Peretz and his predecessor at the Defense Ministry, Shaul Mofaz. Others in the security cabinet also support this view.

The prime minister's stance received a boost Wednesday following the conclusion of the Rome Conference, which dissolved without a call for an immediate cease-fire. This means that Israel has been given additional time to carry on with its military operation in southern Lebanon, while continuing to enjoy American support.

In parallel with the military operation, efforts will continue to forge a diplomatic solution and that will include the deployment of a multinational force in southern Lebanon, under a United Nations mandate.

At Thursday's cabinet meeting, a number of ministers are expected to express bitter criticism of the handling of the war in the north, including its aims and the nature of the ground operations  particularly following the heavy casualties in Wednesday's operations.

Military sources claimed Wednesday that the IDF's current tactics are having an insufficient impact on the Katyusha rocket launchers and expose the soldiers to excessive danger. The criticism was mostly aimed at the decision not to employ large ground forces in Lebanon, which would give the IDF a significant advantages over a guerrilla force.

The sources also criticized what they described as insufficient utilization of aircraft in ground support operations, because of concerns that they might kill Lebanese civilians that did not evacuate target areas.
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/743027.html

[Decebalus]

As I don't see any other threads to post this, and discuss about it, I made one. Hopefully it will be followed by analytical discussions.

a non jurnalistic analyses of situation made by one professional analist


from www.stratfor.com
Special Report: The Israeli Puzzle
By George Friedman

The question that is now most pressing is figuring out exactly what Israel is up to. Hezbollah's strategy is fairly clear-cut: Now that the war has started, it cannot maneuver in the open, for fear of Israeli air power; therefore, it is holding its positions, absorbing the airstrikes and engaging Israeli troops as they approach. Hezbollah continues to fire rockets at Israel. The longer it fights and the more resistance it offers, the more of a psychological blow it inflicts on the Israelis and the more it improves its credibility as a fighting force and its influence among groups resisting Israel. In an ideal form, the Israelis would be drawn into Lebanon, forced into an occupation and forced to fight the kind of counterinsurgency in which the United States is now engaged in Iraq.

Israel's stated goal is the destruction of Hezbollah's ability to wage war. This means shutting down Hezbollah's rocket attacks, engaging and destroying deployed forces, destroying Hezbollah's support infrastructure -- and doing this so thoroughly that Hezbollah either will not recover its capabilities or will take years to do so. Israeli forces also must do this without being drawn into an occupation that Hezbollah and others could draw out into an extended counterinsurgency operation. In other words, Israel's goal is to shatter Hezbollah without an extended occupation of Lebanon.

Thus far, Israel's strategy has focused on an air campaign. Supplementing the air campaign has been a substantial mobilization of ground forces and a very shallow insertion of these forces along the southern Lebanese frontier. This is where the mystery begins.

Historically, Israel has tried to fight wars as quickly as possible. There are three reasons for this. First, Israel is casualty-averse and fears wars of attrition. The rapid destruction of enemy forces has always been a principle. Second, large-scale mobilization is extremely expensive for Israel economically. Wars need to end quickly, so as to keep the costs of mobilization low. Third, Israel has a dependency on the United States. An example is its need for additional precision-guided munitions and for jet fuel. The United States normally supports Israel but usually wants to see cease-fires put into place as quickly as possible. Therefore, Israel typically has to end major, conventional combat operations as quickly as possible. In previous wars the Israeli model has been sudden, surprise initiation of war or -- when not possible, as in 1973 -- rapid seizure of the initiative, followed by rapid termination.

But to this point, Israel is fighting a very different war. It essentially has been conducting an extended air campaign without significant engagement on the ground. Now, Israeli commanders, heavily influenced by American thinking, have been attracted to the air option: It holds open the promise of destroying the enemy without exposing Israel's forces to extensive casualties. The war can be conducted in an environment in which air power is immune from defenses.

Historically, the air campaign has been seen as incapable of delivering victory except in concert with a ground campaign. In this particular campaign, Israel clearly has not achieved either of its two objectives. First, rocket fire from Hezbollah has not been suppressed. Israel seems to be having the same problem in this area as the United States had in 1991, with its famous Scud Hunt in Iraq. It could eventually work, but it hasn't yet. Second, the air campaign, from the little we have seen, does not appear to have broken Hezbollah's will to resist. The small-unit combat we have had reported from southern Lebanon describes a capable, motivated resistance that could be absorbing more casualties than the Israelis are, but that has not been defeated.

It is difficult, thus, to envision the air war as the totality of the campaign. If the Israelis have counted on this to be sufficient, it has failed so far. It also is difficult to imagine the Israeli air force having convinced the army that an air campaign by itself would suffice. Therefore, we are drawn to one of two conclusions: Either the main effort will come on the ground but has not yet been launched, or the Israelis envision some diplomatic solution to the problem of Hezbollah. In other words, the air campaign is either preparation for a ground invasion, or it is designed to set the stage for a political settlement.

The Political Option

Let's examine the second possibility. Obviously, there has been a tremendous amount of diplomatic activity going on, not least of which has been U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's visit to the region. There are myriad possibilities, but in the end -- from Israel's point of view -- any settlement must contain the following elements:

1. An end to rocket attacks against Israel and the release of captured Israeli soldiers.
2. Controls over Hezbollah by a third party to assure that Hezbollah would cease to be a threat to Israel.

The first issue can be readily dealt with; the second cannot. First, there is no force that can impose controls on Hezbollah, or that can do so without incurring other consequences. The Lebanese army, even if it had the will, is simply not strong enough to engage and defeat Hezbollah. An outside peacekeeping force -- from Europe, for example -- would not be prepared to engage in direct combat against Hezbollah (or Israel) if either resumed fighting. The assumption that the mere presence of such a force would prevent either party from pursuing their interests assumes that each would fear the consequences of inflicting casualties on the peacekeepers. Since it is not clear that there would be any consequence aside from stern warnings, a third-party buffer would offer no solution for Israel's (or Hezbollah's) security concerns.

There is an assumption that Iran or Syria could simply order Hezbollah to stop the fighting. In our view, this vastly overestimates the political influence of Tehran and Damascus -- or the unity between Iran and Syria. Each has different interests in this fight, the governments are wildly different regimes, and neither has as much trust in the other as might be imagined. Iran is very far away and, though it has covert levers, it has few overt ones. Hezbollah has its own interests in this war -- and though Iran and Syria are enablers, providing the militants with weapons and training, that does not ultimately give them control over Hezbollah. Put it this way: Hezbollah would not be what it is without Syria and Iran, but it does not follow that it is under the control of Syria and Iran. At this point, few if any weapons are getting to the militants anyway. Hezbollah is playing its own game.

One non-Israeli way of controlling Hezbollah is Syria. Syria's army is strong enough to compel Hezbollah to cease fire, and it is in a position to assure compliance. But for that, the army would have to re-enter Lebanon. The United States, concerned about Syria's behavior in Iraq, engaged in maneuvers to force Syria out of Lebanon not too long ago. It is unlikely that the Americans want to see them return. Indeed, Israel, which has quietly collaborated with Syria over Lebanon in the past, might have fewer objections and even a degree of trust in this regard. Certainly, the Israelis do not want to see regime change in Syria, since whatever might succeed Bashar al Assad would be worse, from their point of view. But in the end, relying on Syria to end rocket attacks against Israel would be a tenuous solution at best.

It is therefore difficult to see how diplomacy can produce a solution. Even if Hezbollah is being badly hurt by the air campaign, it is not so bad a beating that it is being crushed. In fact, the diplomatic settlement would give Hezbollah what it has not yet won -- and might not win -- on the battlefield. As for Israel, there is near unanimity in the polls that the Israeli public wants a final resolution of the Hezbollah threat. A solution that would simply postpone such a resolution, such as a cease-fire and a NATO peacekeeping force, would be quickly attacked by Likud -- and we would bet the Olmert government could not survive.

This is a moment when diplomacy cannot provide a resolution that is desirable to either side. Now, it is possible that the Israeli view is that, with extended pounding from the air, Hezbollah will reconsider its position. However, aside from the example of Kosovo -- where Yugoslavia was fighting for what was, in the end, a peripheral interest -- air power simply hasn't forced such a capitulation historically. From what we can see, it isn't producing it this time either.

There is also a public relations shift taking place. In the early days of the air campaign, there was a surprising amount of international support for Israel. As the air campaign wears on and the pictures of civilian casualties beam around the world, that support is deteriorating. Israel is coming under greater political pressure. Shortly, the United States will be experiencing it. As we have said, the United States wants to see Hezbollah crippled. At the same time, the Bush administration is politically weak in the United States and is fighting to recover its balance. An extended Israeli air campaign that is not reaching any recognizable goal will generate pressure inside the United States and might force Washington to pressure Israel to terminate the campaign. Israel will not be able to resist that pressure -- not while it requires re-supply from the United States. Bush, with his poll numbers and increasing problems in Iraq, cannot resist indefinitely either.

Next Moves

Israel is engaged in an air campaign that has not yet achieved its goals, it has mobilized ground forces that are standing by, it is engaged in diplomacy that cannot logically achieve a sustainable end, and it is fighting an enemy that shows every sign of being able to continue to resist -- even after being engaged in air-ground operations. The political window is not closed, but is beginning to close. From Hezbollah's point of view, this can and should go on for a long time. From Israel's point of view, the pressure for war termination is building.

There are three possibilities here:

1. Israel is going to go with the air campaign indefinitely.
2. Israel is going to negotiate a diplomatic solution.
3. Israel is going to wage a ground campaign.

We have explained why the first two options do not appear viable to us. Unless Israel's battle damage assessment of the airstrikes is showing its intelligence people something we can't see from afar, the air campaign is a valuable preparation for a ground war but not a substitute. Unless some sort of strange deal is in the works with Syria, which we doubt, we do not see the shape of a diplomatic settlement. And unless Israel is going to declare victory and just stop, we don't see the war ending. Therefore, our analysis continues to point to a major ground operation.

People we have contacted in Israel keep talking about Israel having some surprises. We already are surprised by the amount of time between the initiation of the air attack and the initiation of a major ground offensive. If the Israelis have more surprises waiting, it will be interesting to see what they are. However, at this point, unless Israel wants to abandon the goal of rendering Hezbollah harmless for an extended period of time, it would seem to us that a massive raid in force, followed by destruction of infrastructure in detail, followed by withdrawal, is the most realistic option remaining.

One other possible explanation for events (and perhaps this is the surprise) is that Israel has been taken aback by Hezbollah's abilities and resilience, and that the Israelis are not certain they can attain their political ends militarily. In other words, the cost of imposing defeat on Hezbollah might be seen as so high, or perhaps unattainable, that the outcome of the war must be something of a stalemate. If that is the case, the balance of power in the region has shifted dramatically and Hezbollah has, in fact, won a victory. Since we do not think Israel will concede that point, we continue to await Israel's move.

We have been told to expect surprises in how Israel does this. We agree fully: We are surprised. We see the Hezbollah plan and it is unfolding -- not as well as it might have hoped, but not that poorly either. We await the Israeli solution to the problem posed by Hezbollah. There will be at least one clear criterion for victory or defeat on both sides. If Hezbollah continues to attack Haifa and other major cities without Israel being able to stop it, or it halts those attacks only after a diplomatic compromise, Hezbollah would have achieved its strategic goal and Israel would have lost. If Israel can end the attacks without making political concessions, Israel would have won. At a certain point, it is as simple as that.

I read it, it was a good article. What do you guys think about it?

[Clearday-TRForce]

Yeah and the another one is coming from same source


Israel lives with three realities: geographic, demographic and cultural. Geographically, it is at a permanent disadvantage, lacking strategic depth. It does enjoy the advantage of interior lines -- the ability to move forces rapidly from one front to another. Demographically, it is on the whole outnumbered, although it can achieve local superiority in numbers by choosing the time and place of war. Its greatest advantage is cultural. It has a far greater mastery of the technology and culture of war than its neighbors.

Two of the realities cannot be changed. Nothing can be done about geography or demography. Culture can be changed. It is not inherently the case that Israel will have a technological or operational advantage over its neighbors. The great inherent fear of Israel is that the Arabs will equal or surpass Israeli prowess culturally and therefore militarily. If that were to happen, then all three realities would turn against Israel and Israel might well be at risk.

That is why the capture of Israeli troops, first one in the south, then two in the north, has galvanized Israel. The kidnappings represent a level of Arab tactical prowess that previously was the Israeli domain. They also represent a level of tactical slackness on the Israeli side that was previously the Arab domain. These events hardly represent a fundamental shift in the balance of power. Nevertheless, for a country that depends on its cultural superiority, any tremor in this variable reverberates dramatically. Hamas and Hezbollah have struck the core Israeli nerve. Israel cannot ignore it.

Embedded in Israel's demographic problem is this: Israel has national security requirements that outstrip its manpower base. It can field a sufficient army, but its industrial base cannot supply all of the weapons needed to fight high-intensity conflicts. This means it is always dependent on an outside source for its industrial base and must align its policies with that source. At first this was the Soviets, then France and finally the United States. Israel broke with the Soviets and France when their political demands became too intense. It was after 1967 that it entered into a patron-client relationship with the United States. This relationship is its strength and its weakness. It gives the Israelis the systems they need for national security, but since U.S. and Israeli interests diverge, the relationship constrains Israel's range of action.

During the Cold War, the United States relied on Israel for a critical geopolitical function. The fundamental U.S. interest was Turkey, which controlled the Bosporus and kept the Soviet fleet under control in the Mediterranean. The emergence of Soviet influence in Syria and Iraq -- which was not driven by U.S. support for Israel since the United States did not provide all that much support compared to France -- threatened Turkey with attack from two directions, north and south. Turkey could not survive this. Israel drew Syrian attention away from Turkey by threatening Damascus and drawing forces and Soviet equipment away from the Turkish frontier. Israel helped secure Turkey and turned a Soviet investment into a dry hole.

Once Egypt signed a treaty with Israel and Sinai became a buffer zone, Israel became safe from a full peripheral war -- everyone attacking at the same time. Jordan was not going to launch an attack and Syria by itself could not strike. The danger to Israel became Palestinian operations inside of Israel and the occupied territories and the threat posed from Lebanon by the Syrian-sponsored group Hezbollah.

In 1982, Israel responded to this threat by invading Lebanon. It moved as far north as Beirut and the mountains east and northeast of it. Israel did not invade Beirut proper, since Israeli forces do not like urban warfare as it imposes too high a rate of attrition. But what the Israelis found was low-rate attrition. Throughout their occupation of Lebanon, they were constantly experiencing guerrilla attacks, particularly from Hezbollah.

Hezbollah has two patrons: Syria and Iran. The Syrians have used Hezbollah to pursue their political and business interests in Lebanon. Iran has used Hezbollah for business and ideological reasons. Business interests were the overlapping element. In the interest of business, it became important to Hezbollah, Syria and Iran that an accommodation be reached with Israel. Israel wanted to withdraw from Lebanon in order to end the constant low-level combat and losses.

Israel withdrew in 1988, having reached quiet understandings with Syria that Damascus would take responsibility for Hezbollah, in return for which Israel would not object to Syrian domination of Lebanon. Iran, deep in its war with Iraq, was not in a position to object if it had wanted to. Israel returned to its borders in the north, maintaining a security presence in the south of Lebanon that lasted for several years.

As Lebanon blossomed and Syria's hold on it loosened, Iran also began to increase its regional influence. Its hold on some elements of Hezbollah strengthened, and in recent months, Hezbollah -- aligning itself with Iranian Shiite ideology -- has become more aggressive. Iranian weapons were provided to Hezbollah, and tensions grew along the frontier. This culminated in the capture of two soldiers in the north and the current crisis.

It is difficult to overestimate the impact of the soldier kidnappings on the Israeli psyche. First, while the Israeli military is extremely highly trained, Israel is also a country with mass conscription. Having a soldier kidnapped by Arabs hits every family in the country. The older generation is shocked and outraged that members of the younger generation have been captured and worried that they allowed themselves to be captured; therefore, the younger generation needs to prove it too can defeat the Arabs. This is not a primary driver, but it is a dimension.

The more fundamental issue is this: Israel withdrew from Lebanon in order to escape low-intensity conflict. If Hezbollah is now going to impose low-intensity conflict on Israel's border, the rationale for withdrawal disappears. It is better for Israel to fight deep in Lebanon than inside Israel. If the rockets are going to fall in Israel proper, then moving into a forward posture has no cost to Israel.

From an international standpoint, the Israelis expect to be condemned. These international condemnations, however, are now having the opposite effect of what is intended. The Israeli view is that they will be condemned regardless of what they do. The differential between the condemnation of reprisal attacks and condemnation of a full invasion is not enough to deter more extreme action. If Israel is going to be attacked anyway, it might as well achieve its goals.

Moreover, an invasion of Hezbollah-held territory aligns Israel with the United States. U.S. intelligence has been extremely concerned about the growing activity of Hezbollah, and U.S. relations with Iran are not good. Lebanon is the center of gravity of Hezbollah, and the destruction of Hezbollah capabilities in Lebanon, particularly the command structure, would cripple Hezbollah operations globally in the near future. The United States would very much like to see that happen, but cannot do it itself. Moreover, an Israeli action would enrage the Islamic world, but it would also drive home the limits of Iranian power. Once again, Iran would have dropped Lebanon in the grease, and not been hurt itself. The lesson of Hezbollah would not be lost on the Iraqi Shia -- or so the Bush administration would hope.

Therefore, this is one Israeli action that benefits the United States, and thus helps the immediate situation as well as long-term geopolitical alignments. It realigns the United States and Israel. This also argues that any invasion must be devastating to Hezbollah. It must go deep. It must occupy temporarily. It must shatter Hezbollah.

At this point, the Israelis appear to be unrolling a war plan in this direction. They have blockaded the Lebanese coast. Israeli aircraft are attacking what air power there is in Lebanon, and have attacked Hezbollah and other key command-and-control infrastructure. It would follow that the Israelis will now concentrate on destroying Hezbollah -- and Lebanese -- communications capabilities and attacking munitions dumps, vehicle sites, rocket-storage areas and so forth.

Most important, Israel is calling up its reserves. This is never a symbolic gesture in Israel. All Israelis below middle age are in the reserves and mobilization is costly in every sense of the word. If the Israelis were planning a routine reprisal, they would not be mobilizing. But they are, which means they are planning to do substantially more than retributive airstrikes. The question is what their plan is.

Given the blockade and what appears to be the shape of the airstrikes, it seems to us at the moment the Israelis are planning to go fairly deep into Lebanon. The logical first step is a move to the Litani River in southern Lebanon. But given the missile attacks on Haifa, they will go farther, not only to attack launcher sites, but to get rid of weapons caches. This means a move deep into the Bekaa Valley, the seat of Hezbollah power and the location of plants and facilities. Such a penetration would leave Israeli forces' left flank open, so a move into Bekaa would likely be accompanied by attacks to the west. It would bring the Israelis close to Beirut again.

This leaves Israel's right flank exposed, and that exposure is to Syria. The Israeli doctrine is that leaving Syrian airpower intact while operating in Lebanon is dangerous. Therefore, Israel must at least be considering using its air force to attack Syrian facilities, unless it gets ironclad assurances the Syrians will not intervene in any way. Conversations are going on between Egypt and Syria, and we suspect this is the subject. But Israel would not necessarily object to the opportunity of eliminating Syrian air power as part of its operation, or if Syria chooses, going even further.

At the same time, Israel does not intend to get bogged down in Lebanon again. It will want to go in, wreak havoc, withdraw. That means it will go deeper and faster, and be more devastating, than if it were planning a long-term occupation. It will go in to liquidate Hezbollah and then leave. True, this is no final solution, but for the Israelis, there are no final solutions.

Israeli forces are already in Lebanon. Its special forces are inside identifying targets for airstrikes. We expect numerous air attacks over the next 48 hours, as well as reports of firefights in southern Lebanon. We also expect more rocket attacks on Israel.

It will take several days to mount a full invasion of Lebanon. We would not expect major operations before the weekend at the earliest. If the rocket attacks are taking place, however, Israel might send several brigades to the Litani River almost immediately in order to move the rockets out of range of Haifa. Therefore, we would expect a rapid operation in the next 24-48 hours followed by a larger force later.

At this point, the only thing that can prevent this would be a major intervention by Syria with real guarantees that it would restrain Hezbollah and indications such operations are under way. Syria is the key to a peaceful resolution. Syria must calculate the relative risks, and we expect them to be unwilling to act decisively.

Therefore:

1. Israel cannot tolerate an insurgency on its northern frontier; if there is one, it wants it farther north.

2. It cannot tolerate attacks on Haifa.

3. It cannot endure a crisis of confidence in its military

4. Hezbollah cannot back off of its engagement with Israel.

5. Syria can stop this, but the cost to it stopping it is higher than the cost of letting it go on.

It would appear Israel will invade Lebanon. The global response will be noisy. There will be no substantial international action against Israel. Beirut's tourism and transportation industry, as well as its financial sectors, are very much at risk. an interesting article on these events

Send questions or comments on this article to analysis@stratfor.com


regards,
CDTRF

[Paracaidista]

Source: New York Times (http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/26/world/middleeast/26mideast.html?_r=1&th=&oref=slogin&emc=th&pagewanted=print)

July 26, 2006

Israel to Occupy Area of Lebanon as Security Zone

By GREG MYRE (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/m/greg_myre/index.html?inline=nyt-per) and HELENE COOPER

JERUSALEM, July 25 — Almost two weeks into its military assault on Hezbollah (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/h/hezbollah/index.html?inline=nyt-org), Israel (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/israel/index.html?inline=nyt-geo) said Tuesday that it would occupy a strip inside southern Lebanon (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/lebanon/index.html?inline=nyt-geo) with ground troops until an international force could take its place.

The announcement raised the prospect of a more protracted Israeli involvement in Lebanon than the political and military leadership previously signaled or publicly sought. Officials have talked about limited raids into Lebanon, but now they seem ready to commit ground forces for at least weeks, if not months.

They said the zone would be much smaller than the strip of southern Lebanon roughly 15 miles deep that Israel occupied for nearly two decades before withdrawing in 2000.

As the war between Israel and Hezbollah continued, four unarmed United Nations (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/u/united_nations/index.html?inline=nyt-org) observers were killed when an Israeli airstrike hit their observation post near the Israeli border, United Nations and Lebanese officials said. The Israeli Foreign Ministry said that Israel “regrets the tragic death” of the observers, and that it would investigate thoroughly.

The timetable and makeup of an international force remained vague, despite diplomacy by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/r/condoleezza_rice/index.html?inline=nyt-per) on her second day of a trip to the region. Ms. Rice, who met with Israeli and Palestinian officials after a surprise trip to Beirut on Monday, secured commitments from Israel to allow relief aid into Lebanon, and said she would press Israel to ease border restrictions for Palestinians.

But she left without any sign of a quick end to Israel’s military campaigns in Lebanon or the Gaza Strip.

The United Nations secretary general, Kofi Annan (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/a/kofi_annan/index.html?inline=nyt-per), in Rome for talks on the Middle East scheduled to start Wednesday, issued a statement saying that he was “shocked and deeply distressed by the apparently deliberate targeting” of the United Nations post by the Israeli military. He said that the post, at Khiam, was clearly marked, and called on the Israeli government to conduct a full investigation. The official New China News Agency said one of the dead was a Chinese observer.

Elsewhere in southern Lebanon, in fighting over the two Hezbollah strongholds of Bint Jbail and Marun al Ras, Israel said it had killed the Hezbollah leader in the area, Abu Jaafer, and 20 to 30 Hezbollah fighters in a 24-hour period. At least six people were killed in two neighboring houses in a predawn raid on the southern town of Nabatiye.

Hezbollah continued to strike at Israel, firing nearly 100 rockets as of Tuesday night, the Israeli military said. The group’s leader, Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, threatened missile strikes “beyond Haifa.” Hezbollah is believed to have missiles able to reach Tel Aviv.

Another Hezbollah leader, Mahmoud Komati, deputy chief of the group’s political arm, told The Associated Press that Hezbollah was surprised by the force of Israel’s reaction to its capture of two Israeli soldiers. He said Hezbollah had expected “the usual, limited” response such as commando raids or limited attacks on Hezbollah strongholds.

Israel’s defense minister, Amir Peretz, said Israel’s plan for a buffer zone inside Lebanon was being worked out and did not provide details.

“We will have to build a new security strip, a security strip that will be a cover for our forces until international forces arrive,” he said.

“We are shaping it, but you can’t draw a single line that will become a permanent line along the entire zone,” Mr. Peretz said on Israeli radio. “Unless there is multinational force that will enter and take control, a multinational force with the ability to act, we will continue to fire against anyone who enters the designated strip.”

Israeli officials, mindful of the Israeli public’s reluctance to repeat its long occupation of southern Lebanon, say they do not plan a major ground invasion, and do not intend to hold large parts of Lebanese territory for extended periods. Israeli leaders say they want the Lebanese Army to assume control of the border eventually.

Israeli troops do not yet have control over the border strip. A senior government official said Israeli forces intended to clear out Hezbollah strongholds in border villages as the military is already doing in Bint Jbail and Marun al Ras.

The military plans to move into other villages as well, but “this will not be the re-establishment of the old security zone,” said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly on the matter. “It is not remotely similar.”

“If there is a strong international force, and if the Lebanese government is serious about establishing sovereignty on its border, then we will gladly leave,” the official said.

Ms. Rice, meanwhile, won a promise from Prime Minister Ehud Olmert (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/o/ehud_olmert/index.html?inline=nyt-per) of Israel to allow relief flights into Beirut International Airport, where the runways have been bombed by Israel. Ms. Rice also told the Palestinian Authority (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/p/palestinian_authority/index.html?inline=nyt-org) president, Mahmoud Abbas (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/a/mahmoud_abbas/index.html?inline=nyt-per), that she would press Israel to ease border restrictions for Palestinians.

Ms. Rice received a warm welcome from Mr. Olmert in Jerusalem, in contrast to the much cooler receptions she received in the West Bank city of Ramallah, and in Beirut on Monday.

But her visit to the West Bank had echoes of her surprise stop in Beirut. In both cases, she assured a largely powerless leader that the United States was sympathetic to the suffering of his people, though American leaders have stopped short of pressuring Israel to let up on its campaign against militants.

Ms. Rice pointedly characterized Mr. Abbas as the “duly elected president” of the Palestinian Authority, and said “the Palestinian people have had to live too long” under harsh conditions.

But just as pointedly, she did not respond to Mr. Abbas’s urgent appeal for cease-fires in region, to ease what he said was suffering “beyond the capacity of any human being to endure.”

Ms. Rice and Mr. Abbas discussed the release of an Israeli soldier who was seized by Palestinian militants on June 25, setting off the current crisis in Gaza. But Mr. Abbas is seen as having little influence.

Hamas (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/h/hamas/index.html?inline=nyt-org), which holds the Palestinian prime minister’s post and controls the cabinet, is demanding an exchange for a large number of Palestinian prisoners. Also, Hamas militants were one of three factions that claimed responsibility for seizing the soldier.

The United States, along with Israel, regards Hamas as a terrorist group and has no official contact with it.

In Ramallah, just as in Beirut, demonstrators protested Ms. Rice’s visit. About 250 turned out, with some carrying signs that said in Arabic and English, “Rice, Go Home.” A general strike was called throughout the West Bank, and shops in Ramallah were closed as Ms. Rice’s motorcade drove through the city, just north of Jerusalem. With the Beirut airport closed, even Prime Minister Fouad Siniora of Lebanon had to make special arrangements to travel abroad. He boarded a United Nations helicopter near a conference center north of Beirut that took him to Cyprus. He was heading to Rome for the international conference, which Ms. Rice will also attend.

The Lebanese government has now adopted four Hezbollah conditions for a settlement as its own: giving the small disputed slice of border territory known as Shabaa Farms to Lebanon, returning three Lebanese prisoners held by Israel, ending Israeli flyovers into Lebanese airspace, and providing a map showing the location of Israeli land mines in southern Lebanon.

The issue of Shabaa Farms has been the public rationale for allowing Hezbollah, alone among civil war-era militias, to keep its weapons. It was, Lebanese officials have said, resisting continued Israeli occupation.

As the fighting continued, the Israeli military said its aerial attacks included bombing a Hezbollah rocket launching site near the southern city of Tyre, and hitting 10 buildings used by Hezbollah in southern Beirut.

In Mughar, in northern Israel, a 15-year-old Israeli Arab girl died in a Hezbollah rocket strike, family members said. Three other family members were wounded.

Israel also hit in Gaza, with the air force bombing three buildings used for making and storing weapons, according to the Israeli military.

A Palestinian teenager was shot and killed by Israeli troops near Gaza’s border fence, Palestinian hospital officials said. The Israeli military said it fired at people who had planted a bomb.

Palestinian militants fired several rockets into southern Israel on Tuesday, wounding one agricultural worker from Thailand, the Israeli military said.

Ms. Rice said: “It is time for a new Middle East. It is time to say to those that don’t want a different kind of Middle East that we will prevail. They will not.”

Ms. Rice and other administration officials have repeatedly blamed Hezbollah for starting the crisis in Lebanon with a raid into Israel on July 12 that resulted in the deaths of three Israeli soldiers and the capture of two more who were taken into Lebanon.

While strongly supporting Israel, the Bush administration does not want to see the democratically elected Lebanese government harmed by the current conflict.

“I have no doubt there are those who wish to strangle a democratic and sovereign Lebanon in its crib,” Ms. Rice said. “We, of course, also urgently want to end the violence.”

Saudi Arabia pledged a financial package of $1.5 billion to aid the Lebanese economy and help rebuild the country, the official Saudi news agency reported.

International support is building for a multinational force in southern Lebanon, but many issues are unclear, including which countries would send troops. An American official traveling with Ms. Rice said he believed that those questions would be worked out.

“I think you will hear about the impossibility of deploying an international force until the day it is deployed,” the official told reporters, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly on the issue. “But there will be an international force, because all the key players want it.”

In Rome on Wednesday, Ms. Rice is expected to talk with officials from Arab and European countries about the possible makeup and mandate of such a force.

With the United States’ military already stretched with commitments in Iraq and Afghanistan, Ms. Rice has said she does not anticipate American troops’ being part of a force in Lebanon.

France is perhaps the most likely European country to contribute troops, given its history with Lebanon. France administered Lebanon as a protectorate from 1920 to 1943, and the former Lebanese prime minister, Rafik Hariri, who was killed in a car bombing last year that many believe was linked to Syria, was a close friend of the French president, Jacques Chirac (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/c/jacques_chirac/index.html?inline=nyt-per).

But France is now resisting the American idea of moving a force in quickly, insisting on a cease-fire first, followed by a political agreement between Israel and Lebanon that would also be accepted by Hezbollah, said Jean-Baptiste Mattéi, the French Foreign Ministry spokesman.

Greg Myre reported from Jerusalem for this article, and Helene Cooper from Ramallah, West Bank, and Rome. Jad Mouawad contributed reporting from Beirut, and Elaine Sciolino from Paris.

[Snoshi]

IDF said that it started to bury bodies of Hizbullah fighters that were killed.

They told that its hard to be in Jbat Beil because of the smell.

IDF estimates that around 150 fighters were killed there.

http://newsru.co.il/mideast/27jul2006/trupy.html

[Snoshi]

A well-planned Hizbullah ambush on the outskirts of the southern Lebanese village of Bint Jbail on Wednesday devastated Battalion 51 of the Golani Brigade, leaving eight soldiers, including three officers, dead and 24 wounded.

The eight victims were identified as Lt.-Col. Ro'i Klein, 31, from Eli; Lt. Amihai Merhavia, 24, also from Eli; Sgt. Assaf Namer, 27, from Kiryat Yam; Lt. Alexander Schwartzman, 24, from Acre; St.-Sgt. Shimon Adega, 21, from Kiryat Gat; St.-Sgt. Shimon Dahan, 20, from Ashdod; St.-Sgt. Idan Cohen, 21, from Tel Aviv; and St.-Sgt. Ohad Klausner, 20, from Beit Horon.


Later, a paratrooper officer was killed and three of his men were wounded, two seriously, when hit by an anti-tank missile on the outskirts of nearby Maroun al-Ras. The officer was later identified as Lt. Yiftah Shrier, 21, from Haifa.

For Jerusalem Online video coverage of the day's events click here.

Dozens of Hizbullah gunmen armed with antitank missiles and machine guns and geared up in night-vision goggles and bulletproof vests set a trap for a force of Golani infantrymen led by Lt.-Col. Yaniv Asor, commander of Battalion 51. At 5 a.m. Wednesday, Asor and his men asked the Golani command center for permission to enter an area of the outskirts of Bint Jbail. Col. Tamir Yidai, commander of the brigade, gave the green light for the operation.

Asor and his men moved quickly through approximately 15 one-story homes. But as the troops moved through the narrow alleyways, a strong Hizbullah force sent a wave of gunfire and missiles at the force, killing and wounding several soldiers in the first moments of the fight. As Asor and his men fought to regain control of the situation, other Hizbullah cells outflanked them and opened fire on the force as well as other IDF positions in the town.

The battle lasted for several hours during which Asor and his men sustained heavy casualties and killed at least 40 Hizbullah guerrillas, some in gunbattles at point-blank range. Then the evacuation of the wounded began, which lasted six hours due to incessant enemy fire. Four IAF helicopter pilots risked their lives by landing in enemy territory.

Men from the Golani's elite reconnaissance unit and from Battalion 51 carried stretchers with their wounded comrades for three kilometers to the helicopters, which landed for just under one minute at a time beneath a cover of smoke grenades and massive artillery fire before taking off to evacuate the wounded to Israeli hospitals.

Meanwhile at the Golani Brigade's command center, emotions ran high as word came in of the fierce gunbattle and the heavy casualties. Soldiers ran back and forth with maps and officers screamed into encrypted cellular phones coordinating the evacuation of the wounded.

At one point, Brig.-Gen. Gal Hirsh, commander of Division 91, stepped out of the command center to update Chief of General Staff Lt.-Gen. Dan Halutz. "We can't land the helicopters," he said. "The fighting is too intense."

On Tuesday, things in the town had looked entirely different. The IDF, senior officers announced matter-of-factly, had it surrounded and were in control of the town. "The town is in our control," Hirsh said Tuesday. "The work is almost completed and the terrorists are fleeing." Some terrorists, however, seem to have remained, with deadly results.

The Golani's fight didn't end the combat Bint Jbail. Wednesday evening, after the IDF had once again declared it had secured the town, a Paratrooper force nearby was hit by a Sagger antitank missile.

One officer was killed and three soldiers were wounded in the attack and in the gunfight that ensued.

A high-ranking source in the Northern Command told The Jerusalem Post Wednesday that Bint Jbail could not be attacked by air since there were still several hundred civilians there. The officer said that the fighting in the town would continue at least for a day or two.

OC Northern Command Maj.-Gen. Udi Adam said that the war in Lebanon would continue for several more weeks.

"There will unfortunately be more days like this," Adam told reporters. "We need to achieve our goal to completely overcome Hizbullah."
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?apage=1&cid=1153292001539&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull


RIP!! :(

[CyberSpec]

Downer confirms Australian death in Lebanon

Foreign Affairs Minister, Alexander Downer, has confirmed that a soldier killed in southern Lebanon while fighting for Israel was an Australian citizen.

Assaf Namer, 26, was one of nine soldiers killed by Hezbollah guerillas overnight as the Israelis tried to take the militant stronghold of Bint Jbeil.
The dual citizen was born in Israel and moved to Australia with his mother when he was 10.

He returned to Israel two-and-a-half years ago to enlist in the Israeli army.
Mr Downer said the soldier's mother and sister live in Sydney and are currently on their way to Israel.

"I just want to say how sad I am that an Australian has been killed and obviously we extend our condolences to the family and we'll provide whatever consular assistance is necessary in these circumstances," he said.
"He was doing national service in Israel - I think national service lasts for two years.
"He was in the last month of his national service so it's particularly sad circumstances surrounding his death."
The news came as the Defence Minister, Brendan Nelson, said 12 Australian soldiers in southern Lebanon would be withdrawn from the region and moved quickly to Beirut.
The troops had been sent to the area to help with evacuations of Australians trying to escape the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah.

'Authorisation'

Meanwhile, Israel says it has been given "authorisation" to press on in its offensive targeting the Hezbollah militant group.
The Israeli Justice Minister Haim Ramon has made the remarks following the lack of a united international call for an immediate cease-fire
"Yesterday in Rome we have in effect obtained the authorisation to continue our operations until Hezbollah is no longer present in southern Lebanon," Mr Ramon told army radio.
He was speaking ahead of a cabinet meeting that is due to decide whether to expand the offensive, now in its 16th day.
-ABC/AFP


http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200607/s1698821.htm

[DeltaWhisky58]

World 'backs Lebanon offensive'

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/41934000/jpg/_41934930_afp203bodycomfort.jpg
The people of Tyre no longer feel they are in a safe haven

Israel says diplomats' decision not to call for a halt to its Lebanon offensive at a Middle East summit has given it the green light to continue.

"We received yesterday at the Rome conference permission from the world... to continue the operation," Justice Minister Haim Ramon said.
His comments came ahead of an Israeli cabinet meeting to decide whether to intensify the military offensive.
There have been more Israeli air raids and fighting continues in the south.
Foreign ministers attending crisis talks on the violence in Rome on Wednesday failed to unite in calling for an immediate ceasefire, vowing instead to work with "utmost urgency" for a sustainable truce.

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gifhttp://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/41932000/gif/_41932684_leb_is_gaz_launch_4map203.gif
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/img/v3/inline_dashed_line.gif

Mid-East crisis map (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_depth/629/629/5177932.stm)
Future scenarios (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/5217882.stm)
How post was bombed (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/5216230.stm)


Speaking on Israeli army radio, Mr Ramon - a close confidant of Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert - said "everyone understands that a victory for Hezbollah is a victory for world terror".
He said that in order to prevent casualties amongst Israeli soldiers battling Hezbollah militants in southern Lebanon, villages should be flattened by the Israeli air force before ground troops move in.

'All southerners terrorists'

He added that Israel had given the civilians of southern Lebanon ample time to quit the area and therefore anyone still remaining there can be considered Hezbollah supporters.
"All those now in south Lebanon are terrorists who are related in some way to Hezbollah," Mr Ramon said.
Mr Ramon's call for the use of greater firepower came as the Israeli cabinet was set to decide whether to broaden its military offensive.

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gifLEBANON TWO WEEKS ON
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/41935000/jpg/_41935240_afp203bodybridge.jpg
Three airports bombed
62 bridges destroyed
Three dams and ports hit
5,000 homes damaged

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/img/v3/inline_dashed_line.gif

Damage in maps (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_depth/629/629/5218106.stm)
Economy reels (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/5209502.stm)


The chief of Israel's northern command, Maj Gen Udi Adam, has warned that he expects the fighting to "continue for several more weeks".
The BBC Jim Muir in Tyre says that the progress of Israeli ground troops has not been as fast as expected as they battle through the difficult terrain of southern Lebanon.
They still have not managed to capture the Hezbollah stronghold of Bint Jbeil, where they have suffered their worst losses.
An Israeli military official told the BBC that Israel has destroyed 50% of Hezbollah's weapons arsenal, but nonetheless the group's ability to inflict damage appears undiminished - on Wednesday they fired some 150 rockets into Israel, more than on any other day of the conflict.
Pursuing Mr Olmert's plan of pushing Hezbollah back from border areas, in order to prevent them continuing to fire rockets into Israeli territory, and establishing a "security zone" in the south will take many weeks, our correspondent adds.

'Suicide mission'

Meanwhile, Israel's attacks on Lebanon have continued with air strikes on a Lebanese army base and a radio relay station north of Beirut.
Fighting is continuing around the town of Bint Jbeil, in south Lebanon, where nine Israel soldiers died on Wednesday.

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/41934000/jpg/_41934928_afp203bodyboy.jpg
Israel suffered its worst losses in an ambush in Bint Jbeil


And in Tyre the bombing of nearby areas, combined with last night's raid on apartments right inside the city, has sparked a civilian exodus.
In a separate development, Australia has said it will withdraw a contingent of 12 UN peacekeepers, following the death of four UN observers in an Israeli air strike, whom the UN Secretary General, Kofi Annan, says were "apparently deliberately targeted".
Foreign Minister Alexander Downer, speaking at the Asean conference in Malaysia, said sending an international peacekeeping force into southern Lebanon while the conflict continues would amount to a "suicide mission".
Foreign ministers attending crisis talks on the violence in Rome on Wednesday agreed on the need for an international peacekeeping force in southern Lebanon, but not on when and how such a force should be deployed.

The meeting was overshadowed by outcry over the deaths of the UN observers, whom UN officials say had asked Israel repeatedly to stop attacking them before they were killed by an Israeli war plane.
At least 405 Lebanese and 51 Israelis have died in violence since Hezbollah captured two Israeli soldiers in a cross-border raid on 12 July.
The BBC's Clare Bolderson in Jerusalem says that despite the escalating death toll public opinion in Israel remains solidly behind the government.
Israelis believe Hezbollah is a threat to their state's existence, our correspondent says, and though there are signs of a weariness with the rockets launched daily at Israel's northern towns, there is no indication they want the bombing to stop.
A poll published by Israel's Maariv daily newspaper on Thursday, has 82% saying they back the continuing offensive and the number saying "Israel's reaction to Hezbollah attacks is justified" remained unchanged at 95%. The poll was conducted before the death of nine Israeli soldiers in southern Lebanon on Wednesday - the biggest loss of Israeli life in a single incident so far during the conflict.

BBC News Online (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/5219360.stm)

[DeltaWhisky58]

Beckett protest at weapons flight

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/41933000/jpg/_41933468_prestwick_nighttwo203.jpg
The airport said it provided logistical support to military flights

British Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett has protested to the US about its use of Prestwick Airport in western Scotland to transport bombs to Israel.

Amid the Lebanon crisis, she said it seemed the US was ignoring procedure, and she registered her concerns with US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.
SNP leader Alex Salmond claimed the UK government must decide whether to "be an aircraft carrier" for the US.
The Lib Dems suggested the Americans were taking the UK for granted.
Mrs Beckett was asked about the controversy after discussing the Middle East crisis with fellow foreign ministers in Rome.
"We have already let the United States know that this is an issue that appears to be seriously at fault, and we will be making a formal protest if it appears that that is what has happened," she said.
Opposition parties have reacted angrily to a report in The Daily Telegraph newspaper that two chartered Airbus A310 cargo planes filled with laser-guided bombs landed at Prestwick en-route to Israel from the US.

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gifhttp://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/img/v3/start_quote_rb.gif Do we really think that it's a great idea at this particular moment with an escalating Middle East conflict to have GBUs [guided bomb units] sent to arm one side in that conflict to the teeth? http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/img/v3/end_quote_rb.gif
Alex Salmond

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/img/v3/inline_dashed_line.gif

Analysis: Strained relations (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/5219588.stm)


The Israelis have requested the munitions to attack bunkers being used by Hezbollah militants in Lebanon.

'Provocative'

Mr Salmond said that "with an escalating Middle East conflict", it was ill-advised to send bombs "to arm one side in that conflict to the teeth, at a time when hundreds of civilians, many children, United Nations observers, have already been eliminated, killed, by similar weapons".
He told BBC Radio 4's Today programme that for the UK to stand up to the Americans, it "would require an independent foreign policy, as opposed to merely acquiescing everything the United States chooses to do".
According to BBC Two's Newsnight programme, the US has lodged requests to bring two more planes through the UK carrying bombs and missiles for Israel in the next two weeks.
A Foreign Office spokesman said: "We have procedures in place for flights carrying arms.
"It's important that they are followed. If they are not, we will raise it with the US but we are not going to comment on US flights transiting through the UK.
"The foreign secretary has discussed this issue with Condoleezza Rice."

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/41935000/jpg/_41935378_gbu_ap203b.jpg
Guided bomb units were carried on two chartered planes, it is claimed

The UK's Civil Aviation Authority said it followed a series of procedures set out by the International Civil Aviation Organisation "to facilitate the international movement of civil aircraft".
These "apply to everyone who may be involved in putting or taking dangerous goods on an aircraft", its website stated.

'Inspections'

Countries must "hold a permission to carry dangerous goods" and submit to "audit-style inspections" to "check for compliance".
If insufficient information was supplied then all available evidence would be gathered to try to inform the originating state "so that action can be taken there", it said.
A spokesman for the Civil Aviation Authority was unable to confirm whether it had been informed of the contents of the flight to which Mrs Beckett referred.
A Downing Street spokeswoman refused to comment on the matter, saying it was being dealt with by the Foreign Office.
And Strathclyde Police said the matter would be "for the owners of the airport and/or central government", as long as "no offence has been committed".

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gifhttp://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/img/v3/start_quote_rb.gif If these reports are true, it is particularly provocative for the United States to have acted in this way http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/img/v3/end_quote_rb.gif
Sir Menzies Campbell


Prestwick - which lies 30 miles south of Glasgow - had supplied logistical aid for military flights since WWII in "moving troops and cargo", an airport spokesperson said.
"That support involves allowing crew to rest, refuelling aircraft and providing food and water.
"The airport is obliged to allow aircraft from any CAA-registered country to land here."

'Taken for granted'

Liberal Democrat leader Sir Menzies Campbell called for the UK government to respond.
"If these reports are true, it is particularly provocative for the United States to have acted in this way," he said.
"It can only reinforce the belief of many that Britain is taken for granted in the so-called special relationship.
"Who knows how many of these munitions may be used to cause the kind of damage to Lebanon which the prime minister of that country described in Rome as cutting his country to pieces."
Meanwhile one of Tony Blair's former foreign policy advisers has criticised the prime minister's approach to the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah.
"There are times, such as the past two weeks, when a British prime minister should have been thinking less about private influence and more about public advocacy," Sir Stephen Wall wrote in the New Statesman. "Could the Prime Minister really not speak up for the simple proposition that the slaughter of innocent people in Lebanon, and the destruction of their country and the ruin of half a million lives, were wrong and should stop immediately?"

BBC News Online (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/5218036.stm)

[Luno]

from http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=1&categ_id=2&article_id=74294




BEIRUT, July 27, 2006 (AFP) - Israeli warplanes pounded Hezbollah strongholds in southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley to the east of the capital Thursday, killing five people, police said.
One policeman and two civilians died when Israeli attacks ripped along the Bekaa, an AFP photographer said.
Two other people, a man and a woman, died when the southern village of Kafra was bombarded, police said.
Warplanes lobbed more than 400 missiles and bombs overnight on Khiam in the south, a security official told the state news agency ANI. Four UN monitors were killed when their observation post in the border town was destroyed by Israeli bombardment on Tuesday.
In air raids to the east of Sidon, the regional capital of the south, one person was seriously wounded in the village of Zefta, police said. A home was destroyed in Bazalieh to the north of Baalbek in the Bekaa.

A Lebanese military source said Israel also carried out a raid early Thursday near an army base in the Amchit region, 40 kilometres (25 miles) north of Beirut, without causing any casualties.
Israeli rockets caused a fire at a radio communications centre, the source said.
On Wednesday, as the war between the Jewish state and the Shiite militants of Hezbollah entered its third week, three people were killed as Israel pounded south Lebanon, including two guerrillas, and 12 people wounded. Since the start of the Israeli offensive on July 12, more than 400 people have been killed in Lebanon. Most have been civilians; 29 were Lebanese troops or police

[DeltaWhisky58]

Middle East crisis: Future scenarios

By Paul Reynolds
World affairs correspondent, BBC News website
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/999999.gif

Now that the Rome conference on Lebanon has ended without a decisive move towards settling the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, it is worth looking at what might happen next.

DIPLOMATIC SETTLEMENT

The Lebanese government and Hezbollah would agree to implement Security Council resolution 1559.
This resolution, passed in September 2004, called for the disbanding of all militias in Lebanon and the extension of Lebanese government authority to all parts of the country. Hezbollah would move out of south Lebanon and the Lebanese army would move down to the border with Israel. The idea is that this would remove the source of conflict.

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Lebanese women refugees from Israeli bombing


Both Israel and Hezbollah would accept a ceasefire and the agreement formalised in a new Security Council resolution.
An international force would be deployed in the border area at least until the Lebanese army arrived.
Getting agreement on the mandate, size and deployment of such a force is not going to be easy. It would replace an existing UN force, Unifil, which has been monitoring events but not influencing them since 1978.
The Israelis might maintain a self-declared "buffer zone" for a time, but any settlement would have to see an Israeli withdrawal.
Some kind of deal would be done to resolve the original trigger for this war, the capture of two Israeli solders by Hezbollah. Israel wants their unconditional release. Hezbollah says they were taken to be exchanged.
Lebanon also wants Israel to leave a strip of land known as the Shebaa Farms at the foot of Mount Hermon, but the UN has ruled that this land belongs to Syria and that its future should be decided by Israeli-Syrian negotiations.

STALEMATE

Under this scenario, the Israeli military effort to remove Hezbollah fighters from south Lebanon gets bogged down and Hezbollah refuses to pull back or reach any agreement with the Lebanese government. Fighting continues.
This would leave Israel far short of its aims. There would be domestic political fall-out in that great ambitions were laid out for this conflict.
A stalemate in which Israel was making little headway might also be interpreted as "Israel loses", in that it did not achieve its goals.

Already the Israelis have found the going tougher than they might have expected. The terrain - mountainous, rocky, and full of caves, gullies and ravines - is ideal guerrilla country and the Israelis cannot use their armoured forces there easily.

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Israeli woman and children flee Hezbollah rocket attack


It is therefore conceivable that the Israelis will not achieve the decisive victory they seek.
If that happened, the fighting could go on indefinitely to a greater or lesser degree. Israeli bombing could continue in an attempt to cut off Hezbollah reinforcements moving south.

Hezbollah could continue firing rockets from north of any Israeli-controlled zone.
The civilian suffering would go on and people might not be able to return to normal lives on both sides of the border.

Israel could establish control over a self-declared "buffer zone" along the border and just stay there. There would be stalemate, with continuing confrontations and fire fights with the potential of the conflict erupting again at any time.

ISRAEL DECLARES SUCCESS

Israel would go on until it reckoned it had achieved success. It might or might not announce a ceasefire but it would in practice hand over southern Lebanon to an international force and withdraw. In due course, the Lebanese army would deploy to the border. Israel would declare victory against Hezbollah, though it would probably not get its two captured soldiers back.

THE WAR WINDS DOWN

It is possible that at some stage the Israelis will announce they have achieved their main aims through bombing and the removal of Hezbollah from the border. There might be no ceasefire but the bombing would stop or be reduced. Hezbollah might respond by stopping its rocket attacks. There might be occasional incidents.
This would leave issues unresolved however, including that of the missing Israeli soldiers. Israel will not exchange them for the prisoner Hezbollah wants most, Samir Qantar, who attacked a block of flats in Nahariha in 1979, killing a father and his daughter. The only prisoner release Israel says it will engage in is one through the Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas.

WIDER ISRAELI INVASION

Israel might decide to step up its ground attacks, for example, after a Hezbollah attack on cities further south.
In 1978, the Israelis invaded up to the Litani River some 20km (12 miles) north of the border and in 1982 they went all the way to Beirut. They did not leave south Lebanon until 2000.
Their aim in those operations was to remove Palestinian fighters, from whom Hezbollah has taken over.
It is possible that the Israelis will decide to expand their currently quite limited ground attacks into the kind of big operation carried out in 1978. An attack on Tyre on the coast would be considered as Hezbollah has been firing rockets from around Tyre.
However, all this would leave Israel in occupation and under constant harassment and attack. It would not be the long-term solution they seek. If they simply left again, Hezbollah would move back in.

THE CONFLICT ESCALATES OR SPREADS

The intensity of the fighting might increase. Hezbollah might extend its attacks to other cities. Israel might step up its bombing and ground operations.

If this happened, tensions would rise all round.
The Lebanese government, product of an uneasy alliance between Lebanon's various populations, and in which Hezbollah sits with reforming elements from the Cedar Revolution, has held together.
But it could fall apart if the pressure is not eased and some solution does not become apparent, especially to the suffering of civilians. Hezbollah could emerge the stronger.

The fighting could develop into a new Jihadist front, drawing in fighters from elsewhere.
Hezbollah's supporters, Syria and Iran, could get drawn in.
Syria which has lost power in Lebanon over the last couple of years could be tempted to regain influence there. The sidelined issue of Iran's nuclear programme could come to the fore again and become a diplomatic and economic confrontation with the West if tensions increased. The solution to the issue depends on understanding and confidence and this has been badly damaged by this crisis.

BBC News Online (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/5217882.stm)

[DeltaWhisky58]

Q&A: Middle East crisis

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BBC World Affairs Editor John Simpson is in Jerusalem and Middle East Editor Jeremy Bowen is in Beirut reporting from the different sides of the conflict.

Here, John Simpson answers some of your questions on the crisis.

Click here to read Jeremy Bowen's response to more of your questions (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/talking_point/5217118.stm)

Q: What are the most likely outcomes of this conflict, and who is set to gain/lose from these scenarios?
Declan Dunleavy, London

In my experience, these things rarely turn out as the planners hope. I suspect there'll eventually be a fudged truce, which will bring secret relief to both sides. But there's no doubt about the long-term winner, right across the Middle East: it's militant Islam.

Q: Isn't there a United Nations force stationed in southern Lebanon? What is its mandate, and has it accomplished its mission, or even anything substantial?
Gary Westmoreland, Schuyer, Virginia, USA

Unifil (UN Interim Force in Lebanon) has been stationed in southern Lebanon for 28 years, but the great powers prevented its having any serious mandate. As a result it has had to stand by helplessly and watch while groups attack Israel from Lebanon and Israeli forces fire across the border or invade. It can be dangerous work, as the killing of the 4 UN workers by Israeli shellfire shows, but it is also thankless.

Q: Would you agree that there can be no diplomatic solution for the foreseeable future, as both Israel and Hezbollah hate each other and are each determined to destroy the other as long as they have enough weapons? Robert, Sussex

The only real solutions come when two sides realize they can't succeed any other way and have to agree. But that doesn't mean diplomacy has no function. Now it would be a real diplomatic achievement if Israel and Hezbollah can be separated far enough so that Hezbollah's rockets can't reach Israel, and Israel gets its two kidnapped soldiers back. Any agreement broader than that is going to have to wait.

Q: Do you detect any sentiment within the Israeli government to help rebuild Lebanon after the destruction meted out by their military forces?
Chris, St Annes

Israel understands the importance of a strong, prosperous Lebanon but while Lebanon is weak, divided and incapable of defending its own borders it offers a real temptation to other countries to get involved.
The best thing for Lebanon would be for outsiders to leave it alone and allow it to rebuild itself, and for the big powers like the US and the EU to make sure that happens.

Q: Do you agree that none of this would have happened if everyone had at least given the democratically elected Hamas a chance, instead of refusing to talk with them and cutting off funds as soon as they were elected?
Jon Duke, Durham

The questions of Hamas and Hezbollah are really entirely separate. Even if Israel had accepted Hamas as a properly elected negotiating party, Hezbollah (which is almost wholly Shi'ite and has close links with Iran and Syria) would still have pushed for a confrontation with Israel, and Israel would have responded as it has.

Q: I've recently heard it said that should Syria become directly involved in the conflict, there's a possibility of World War III breaking out - what's the foundation for this comment, and is the involvement of Western forces a real possibility?
Justin Gyphion, Cardiff

Whatever happens, there won't be a third world war along the lines of the previous two. The world doesn't fight its wars like that any more. If there were open fighting between Syria and Israel, it's conceivable that other countries in the region and other forces might get drawn in. Even so the US, Britain, France and so on would all stay clear of it as best they could. None of this is the fundamental problem for the West though; that comes from the anger of ordinary Muslims in a dozen or more countries, who feel the West is against them and sides with their enemies.

Q: Is it correct that Hezbollah is firing these rockets from densely populated residential areas, and do you think they have support for this in these areas?
Leslie, Oslo

Hezbollah stores its rockets in densely populated areas, with the willing agreement of those who look after them, but they usually (though not always) fire them from open areas away from towns and villages. Having travelled round southern Lebanon many times, I have no doubt that Hezbollah has a great deal of support in these areas.

Q: In your view, reporting from the hothouse of the Middle East - where every comment, choice of visual coverage, reporting nuance and even on-screen gesture is analysed - in the digital age (with bloggers and instant comment etc) has become easier? Or more difficult?
Eamonn O'Neill, Innerleithen, Scotland

Good question. It's easier to report the news fast nowadays, but the danger of that is that you lack the time to prepare everything you say with the old degree of care and attention.
The bloggers, who have no restraints themselves, do indeed interpret everything you say and do from the perspective of their own views and prejudices, so there is far more criticism and complaint than ever before. The only thing to do is keep on trying to get it as right and as honest and as objective as possible, and hope that the large number of people who are honest and objective themselves will appreciate it.

Q: In your opinion, could the USA force Israel to a ceasefire and to negotiate further, by threatening to withdraw the billions of aid it gives annually to Israel?
Shaun, Geneva

I doubt if it would work with anything like this, when Israel thinks its vital interests are at stake. In the past, when US governments have warned that they wanted Israel to behave as the US would like in exchange for all the American aid Israel gets, Israel has continued on its way - and appealed to pro-Israeli feeling in the US for support. It's worked every time.

Q: How international do you foresee this conflict becoming? What would cause Syria or Iran to become militarily involved, and do you think such involvement will happen?
Andrew Matthews, Calgary

Syria is desperate not to get involved, and Iran feels it's pretty safe to carrying on doing what it's doing. Both countries support Hezbollah strongly, though they both deny the Israeli accusation that they are involved in the day-to-day campaign against Israel.