Consequences of the recent Pakistan "battle"?

[Trident-za]

http://www.sftt.org/cgi-bin/csNews/csNews.cgi?database=DefenseWatch.db&command=viewone&op=t&id=430&rnd=209.55739777567206

I thought this was quite interesting.... any comments? Written by some "veteran defence analyst" called William S. Lind. There is the odd comment which shows he clearly doesn't think much of the US approach, but try not to throw the whole idea out just because of this......


I think the failure of the Pakistani Army to win this battle marks the beginning of the end for Pakistan’s current President, General Musharraf. The defensive victory of the tribal fighters will turn into an offensive victory, giving courage and a sense of inevitable victory to Musharraf’s enemies while causing near-revolt in Musharraf’s base, the army itself.

Before the year is out, I suspect we will see General Musharraf’s head impaled on a pike and surging Pashtun crowds proclaiming Osama as their leader.

At that point the American strategic failures that are the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan will have transformed themselves into an American strategic disaster. As I have said before in my ongoing series of columns, Iraq and Afghanistan themselves mean little. The centers of gravity in this war are Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Egypt.

What is important about the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan is how they affect these other countries and their pro-American governments.

[HELEX]

Question: Are the americans allowed to send UAVs into Pakistan?

[George W. Bush]

Why is this douchebag saying this? The battle with Paki tribes isn't over yet. At least according to this article http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=story_3-4-2004_pg1_2

[Trident-za]

Why is this douchebag saying this? The battle with Paki tribes isn't over yet. At least according to this article http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=story_3-4-2004_pg1_2

I doubt the battle with "Paki tribes" will ever be over for the Pakistan government - it's been going on for a lot longer than we've been alive. You do raise a good(ish) point, though.

[moughoun]

I don't know the "escape" through a mile long tunnel just seem's a bit convenient to me they had them surrounded, there's a ceasefire and then their gone, what is it with armies in that area they seem to be very forthcoming about giving amnesty's and ceasefire's to their enemies :slap:

[Fox2]

Interesting article, Trident-za. But I think it is a just a bit too biased/leaning.

For instance


Before the year is out, I suspect we will see General Musharraf’s head impaled on a pike and surging Pashtun crowds proclaiming Osama as their leader.

The tone of this sentence seems to almost drip with ecstacy and jubilation. Similar with the rest of the article. It's like the author is happy things might not be going well.

I can almost picture the guy salivating at every keystroke as he writes about the destruction and failure of US strategic planning.



As I have said before in my ongoing series of columns, Iraq and Afghanistan themselves mean little.

Sounds like someone is trying to make themselves feel better about those two conflicts. "Okay, fine, USA, don't listen to my political views...it's not like you matter anyway..." ;)

Anyway, interesting(ish) article. I think it has too much of an agenda and bias behind it, though, to be too insightful.

[Trident-za]

Good points, Fox2

I don't think the "surging Pashtun crowds proclaiming Osama as their leader " bit will happen, and I agree the author seems almost happy things might not be going well. I do think, though, that the Pakistan government will come under big pressure if their military doesn't win decisively in the tribal areas (and no, I'm not talking about racking up massive body counts).

What would the consequences be if the next Pakistan government is less pro-US? I'm not trying to validate the author's point of view, but am curious about this possibility.

[Fox2]

Good points, Fox2

I don't think the "surging Pashtun crowds proclaiming Osama as their leader " bit will happen, and I agree the author seems almost happy things might not be going well. I do think, though, that the Pakistan government will come under big pressure if their military doesn't win decisively in the tribal areas (and no, I'm not talking about racking up massive body counts).

What would the consequences be if the next Pakistan government is less pro-US? I'm not trying to validate the author's point of view, but am curious about this possibility.

Political dealings like this are always very complex and very difficult to solve. On the one hand, I think that we (the US) believe we could go in there and get what we want done, and be done with it. The problem is, it is sovereign Pakistani soil. Since we respect that, we are letting the Pakistanis do it their way. In the process, the Pakistani military has seen some of the capabilities we possess, as far as intelligence and reconaissance (like the UAVs, satellite thermal imaging, etc.) and want our help in that area. Unfortunately, it seems like the circumstances of the battle are not looking good for the Pakistanis.

I do agree that the possibility of a less cooperative Pakistani government is there, even a decidedly anti-US Pakistani government. There are parts of Pakistan you can go to where they sell posters of Osama bin Laden, exalting him as a hero against "the Great Satan." There are many neighborhoods that follow the Sharia code of Islamic laws, and are the breeding grounds of Wahabism and renegade clerics. Then, on the other hand, in other areas, you have places where they are very progressive and westernized, even. In these areas, women's rights is to the standard the rest of civilization sets, university students learn about the world around them or leave the country for universities in countries like the United States and Great Britain. The point I'm trying to make is that Pakistan is a complex country, just like any other, and its people come from many different angles and areas of thought. Anything is possible.

Where we go from here is a good question, and I am glad I do not have to decide the answer. It must be very frustrating for the US forces on the Afghani side of the border, knowing that they might yield a better outcome, but having their hands tied due to political reasons.

Just my thoughts.

[duck]

Don't forget the Kashmir conflict and a possbile war with India from your equations. A Hindu-Muslim war would serve the fundamentalists perfectly, also for making an attempt to take control of the Pakistani nuclear arsenal.

[Trident-za]

Now THAT's a scary thought :(