Finland in modern war

[interesting man]

I want to make few things clear. I don't want this to turn into fight but I want intelligent opinions and predictions based on real knowledge and healthy imagination. I am just wondering about Finlands defence as a pastime and I want opinions and I think this might be the best place to get them.

So what I want people to discuss here are:
ALL likely (and possible) military and other security threats to nation and people of Finland (Also Finlands possible interventions in worlds conflicts)
-How to prevent these events (Foreing Policy, Allies, Capable military)
-How to defend Finland (strategy and tactics)
-How capable Finland is to defend itself
-Who would interfere
-Likehood of scenario
-How such a scenario would affect the World, EU, Scandinavia, Small Countries...

You can also discuss about other small countries defence if you like. Although this is just for fun I want the discussion to remain serious.

[Walker-69]

Well, there is a long history of wars both great and small between Finland and the Great Eastern Neighbour, Russia (or Soviet Union). But right now, I just want to say this:

I personally have NO fear of Russia at this point in time. (Ja sama suomeksi)

Samma på svenska.

The way I see it, the real risk right now is that of terror/asymmetrical warfare. Stuff like that happening in other parts of Europe could also affect Finland.

To all the Russian members reading this board, I can assure you that here is one Finn who doesn't have any ill feelings towards Russia now.

[Somalimafia]

As the saying goes... "The threat is always from the east."

The Swedes and the Norwegians don't care, since we don't have anything they want. Estonia or any baltic country would get their asses kicked. The Russians will always have some reason.

When they come, the EU and the other Scandinavian countries would certainly help unless they were already nuked. NATO would probably help as well if we chose to join (in wartime, we can get accepted in under 24 hours if we want). If we chose to join NATO, then we would also get carrier support from the Americans, IF there was no other conflict going around.

The Russians know that trying to attack any western nation at this point is suicide. Everybody would turn against them and they would be annihilated. Nukes wouldn't be used until really desperate. So they would most likely wait until another World War when all the normal alliances are broken and we would be alone.

The Russians have three choices: defence, offence in the east (China) or offence in the west (Europe). Central europe, baltics and us and Norway. I have no idea why the Russians would come, since we dont have any oil or minerals they dont already have. But hey, they've been going back and forth several times during the last four hundred years.

The Russians can't be influenced with diplomacy. As we've seen during the last few years under Putin and during the cold war, they really don't care about what you have to say. They will make up their mind and only brute force can change their minds. Trying to suck up or play nice, ends up like black mail. They will always come forth with bigger demands until they are refused and then they break relations/declare war. Not offend any Russians on this board, but that is the way it has been so far.

[Caraway]

When they come, the EU and the other Scandinavian countries would certainly help unless they were already nuked. NATO would probably help as well if we chose to join (in wartime, we can get accepted in under 24 hours if we want). If we chose to join NATO, then we would also get carrier support from the Americans, IF there was no other conflict going around.

Based on bullsiht.

[Somalimafia]

Based on bullsiht.

So bring in the facts then.

[CouchCommando]

Right until proven wrong^^

[2Sheds_Jackson]

NATO would probably help as well if we chose to join (in wartime, we can get accepted in under 24 hours if we want). If we chose to join NATO, then we would also get carrier support from the Americans, IF there was no other conflict going around.

Do you really think that's true? What a wonderful deal for NATO. A nation sits on it's hands for decades and never lifts a finger, then suddenly when they need help, NATO is to risk their lives and treasure on their behalf simply because they've decided to grace NATO with their presence? NATO is an alliance of members who give something to get something- and nobody is going to agree to such a one-sided deal. Don't you play war-games? - they'd let you fry, then come in afterwards to do their own thing, under their own flag. For a while that area of land would be known as "the former Finland", then renamed "McFunland" under new management.

[Lazarou]

So bring in the facts then.

I think Pertti Salolainen put it best:

It is an utterly unbearable thought that Finland would decide to ask for help only when we are in the middle of a serious crisis. Then NATO membership would really be an act which would seriously escalate the crisis and increase tension. You cannot make such decisions when the crisis is there.

[pacifist]

Do you really think that's true? What a wonderful deal for NATO. A nation sits on it's hands for decades and never lifts a finger, then suddenly when they need help, NATO is to risk their lives and treasure on their behalf simply because they've decided to grace NATO with their presence? NATO is an alliance of members who give something to get something- and nobody is going to agree to such a one-sided deal. Don't you play war-games? - they'd let you fry, then come in afterwards to do their own thing, under their own flag. For a while that area of land would be known as "the former Finland", then renamed "McFunland" under new management.

I agree. I don't believe NATO would start war with Russia for Finland which isn't even a member country. Whole idea is ridiculous.

[Dodge]

NATO would just say - Unlucky! If you'd have asked earlier you wouldn't be in this mess. Have fun. cya x

[Somalimafia]

Do you really think that's true? What a wonderful deal for NATO. A nation sits on it's hands for decades and never lifts a finger, then suddenly when they need help, NATO is to risk their lives and treasure on their behalf simply because they've decided to grace NATO with their presence? NATO is an alliance of members who give something to get something- and nobody is going to agree to such a one-sided deal. Don't you play war-games? - they'd let you fry, then come in afterwards to do their own thing, under their own flag. For a while that area of land would be known as "the former Finland", then renamed "McFunland" under new management.

No. I dont think that. I am just trolling around this magnificent thread. (I think the OP is rolling around in laughter now.)

Nvm. This is of course in WW3, just like I said. Massive stuff going all around not just some 1-1 war. But you must consider that we have the biggest border along Russia unless geezers wanna push through Poland, Bularus and/or Ukraine to get to the big momma. But if this is just 1-1 then most likely this is going to be a "who gives a ****" -war, except some Swedes and Norwegians might worry that their very own private Maginot-line is being overrun. I just read this in the paper. Of course, the Eurocrats in Bruxelles might actually sue us to the European court for not providing equal opportunity for the Swedish speaking minority guys fight in the front line.

Why oh why is it so Golden/****ed to sit one of the most crucial pieces of land if you want to get invaded from the east or if you want to invade the east from the west.

I have to admit that I would like to join NATO asap, but some of our politicians still think that we would hurt the russians feelings for joining. I acknowledge the funding issue. That is also one of the deal breakers.

Good night. I am drunk and I want to go to sleep.

[Basillicus]

Well, there probably is no question about Russia's capability to conquer this land. The only thing that matters is are they willing to pay the price, and since we don't have much anything of value that could be taken in a war I don't see that happening in the near future. The most probable situation might be that there's some bigger conflict going on and as a result of some strategic game they decide that they need to take us out of the equation or use the land to gain access to something else. Such a scenario is probably pretty difficult to foresee.

What comes to NATO, well it's very closely tied to the USA and their policies have been a total disaster during this decade and it seems that they are going down both militarily and economically. We'll see how thing develop after Bush is out, but right now we shouldn't touch that ****. Getting possibly tangled at any extent in some of these very questionable conflicts (Irak, Iran, Georgia etc.) caused by big money, dirty power play and possible religious reasons that don't concern us the slightest bit is a big price to pay for the little we might get in return. And second, I think it's morally questionable to join this kind of alliance, contribute next to nothing and expect full benefits. Nordic our European defence cooperation would be great, but another thing is that is it ever going to happen and what kind of quarantees it really gives if the **** hits the fan.

Right now when there's no immediate danger in sight I think we should observe how things develop, there are a lot of variables that are difficult to predict and that affect our situation: e.g. European integration, development of things in Russia and how things are going in the USA.

[TR1]

Well, there is a long history of wars both great and small between Finland and the Great Eastern Neighbour, Russia (or Soviet Union). But right now, I just want to say this:

I personally have NO fear of Russia at this point in time. (Ja sama suomeksi)

Samma på svenska.

The way I see it, the real risk right now is that of terror/asymmetrical warfare. Stuff like that happening in other parts of Europe could also affect Finland.

To all the Russian members reading this board, I can assure you that here is one Finn who doesn't have any ill feelings towards Russia now.

Thats good, there are plenty Russians who have no ill feelings towards Finland. The concept of war between the two nation sin the future is silly and exceedingly unlikely, as their is zero gain.

[Walker-69]

Thats good, there are plenty Russians who have no ill feelings towards Finland. The concept of war between the two nation sin the future is silly and exceedingly unlikely, as their is zero gain.

Yes, that's what I think. The cold war is OVER, and the world is a completely different place now. Think of USA and Mexico - USA could easily take Mexico, but there would be no gain, only loss. There was a war with Mexico in the past, there was a traumatic civil war in USA which is still remembered by many, but these things are unlikely to happen again very soon.

[Walker-69]

Now, the original question was: "Finland in modern war". My opinion is that the current "long war" is going to come to Europe at some point. Of course, I am not a prophet and I am not a military expert. Modern war is asymmetrical war. We don't do SQUAT with the Leopard tanks against a terror attack. What would happen, I don't know - the whole idea is that it is going to be completely unpredictable.