The cost of the advance
It takes the government to decide which game will equip the Air Force delays plans for defense of the country and threatens the credibility of the negotiations with the three finalists
Claudio Dantas Smith and Octavio Costa
FIGHTING Factory Dassault: 36 fighters would cost $ 10 billion
The competition for the purchase of 36 fighter jets by the FAB, estimated at $ 10 billion, seems an endless novel. In the latest chapter, the Defense Minister Nelson Jobim announced further postponement in the selection of fighters, this time to January 2010. It said the reasons for and command of the FAB remain silent so as not to break the hierarchy. The cost of this uncertainty is enormous, because it affects not only the credibility of the negotiations and delay the defense plans of the country, which sees its airspace vulnerable. "You can not stay in this litany. Whether the political criterion, either by coach, you need to resolve them, "said retired Colonel Geraldo Cavagnari, the Center for Strategic Studies at Unicamp. He explains that, once decided to purchase, will run six months until the contract is signed. For the analyst of international security Gunther Rudzītis is necessary to prevent a repeat of the failure of the FX program, held over the last year of the Cardoso government, and finally canceled in 2003. Brazil is in urgent need of a generation of fighter aircraft to ensure the safety of the heavens and their wealth in the territorial sea. ISTO… obtained confidential details of the offers of the finalists: the French Rafale from Dassault, the American F-18 Super Hornet, Boeing, and the Swedish Gripen NG, the Saab.
The report shows the FAB strengths and weaknesses of each plane using a color code (blue, yellow and red) instead of notes.
[*******red]Of the three, the French jet introduced technology package more comprehensive and Swedish appears at first sight, had the best price.[/COLOR]
Your unit value, without the package of armaments and maintenance costs, is U.S. $ 50 million. It would be a good deal, not for the Gripen NG only one project in development. This makes it impossible to calculate their real costs and ensure compliance with deadlines. Despite the expectation of development together with Embraer, the dome of Defense knows that choosing the Gripen NG would be like signing a blank check. FAB this item marked in red. "You can not buy what is on the drawing board," warns Cavagnari. In fact, the historical records of the airline industry in the world attest to the instability of estimates on a plane is not yet operational.
The F-18 Super Hornet, for example, showed average growth of 100% between the amount originally planned pelosfabricantes and the final cost of the project, which reached U.S. $ 9.5 billion.
SHADOWS The French Rafale is a fighter with more ability to remain invisible to enemy radar
Nevertheless, the U.S. fighter is offered today at a stable price of $ 55 million.
In the case of the Rafale, to be fully operational, it took 7.5 billion euros (U.S. $ 10.9 billion), a difference of 50% over the initial estimate. Your unit price without arms and support was 94 million euros ($ 136 million) when he began to be sold, but then fell to 54 million euros ($ 78 million).
This is the value offered to Brazil in the last proposal and even practiced by Dassault with the French government. Besides the price issue, raised by President Lula during the visit of French counterpart Nicolas Sarkozy ABrasilia in September, is at stake in the term. According Cavagnari, the defense sector is in the process of dismantling advanced, which began in 1995. "We have immediate needs of air power that must be addressed," he explains. Then there is another problem. FAB to receive the first aircraft in 2014. Who guarantees to deliver the request in a timely manner? Dassault is in the production line of Rafale heated by new orders from the French government, which gives security to meet the deadlines. The BoeingtradiÁ„o punctuality in sales of F-18. Already a Saab should take eight years to make their hunting operation. For example, the radar that will equip the Gripen began to be developed this year alone.
"To have an idea, Saab develops radar Caesar for the Typhoon fighter for five years and forecast to be ready is 2016. Now they say they can develop a similar radar, the Raven, to equip the Gripen NG, 2011. I find it unlikely, "said the expert Pedro Paulo Rezende. Another important point in the analysis of FAB is the cost of flight-hours. An airplane that consumes too much is not feasible in the long term. The time of flight of the F-18 is $ 11 thousand, while that of the Rafale is U.S. $ 14 mil. Since the Gripen, according to Saab, it would be $ 4 mil. But the Technical Committee of the FX-2 (Copac), from calculations based on data extrapolated maintenance Gripen C / D (prior to version NG), found a very different value: U.S. $ 8 mil. Similarly, Norway and the Netherlands, to assess the Swedish hunting, came to U.S. $ 10 mil. [*******red]The divergence of information led to the FAB mark this item Gripen in yellow attention. The F-18 won blue for that matter[/COLOR]
, but reddened under "radar signature", which means tracking by enemy radar. [*******red]The Rafale, according to official figures, the game is more "invisible" among competitors.[/COLOR]
[*******red]In a recent mock exercise with the U.S. Navy, the French jets "dropped" six F-18 and lost only two aircraft. The U.S. pilots said they could only see the Rafale on the radar when it was too late to react. Now, who needs to act fast is the Brazilian government.[/COLOR]