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While China and Afghanistan do share a very small border, it is not an easily accesible one.Originally Posted by medo
DT
While China and Afghanistan do share a very small border, it is not an easily accesible one.
DT
I was speaking to my Friend whom i wrk with who has relatives in Pakistan ..
He said there will be a conflict ..
I invited Ravi Rikhye from Orbat.com to join the discussion here personally but he hasn't managed to log on yet. Passing along his comments to me for consideration by the forum. Ops issues aside, the bottom line is how do you support 120k more troops logistically - and - if Pakistan responds negatively regarding current supply lines, what are your alternatives. Ravi's comments follow . . .
Lou, I tried to register but it wont let me, I've emailed the HELP people. This is the message I wanted to post:
Bill Roggio of www.longwarjournal.org has impeccable contacts at Centcom. He tell us that the Khyber operation is being led - again - by the Frontier Corps. This in itself shows the Pakistanis are not serious because (1) The FC are the weakest units in Pakistan, and (2) the men are recuited locally and are part and parcel of the tribal culture.
People have to understand that the Pakistan does NOT want to fight the Taliban because the Taliban on both sides of the border are instruments of Pakistan military and foreign policy. They are in effect another arm of the Pakistan military.
Pakistan's entire strategy in NWFP has been to do the absolute minimum needed to keep the US from punishing Pakistan, and to keep the money the US gives monthly for the so called CI operations. The Pakistan Army fights ONLY when it is directly challenged by some tribal faction or the other, or if it needs to get rid of a tribal faction that's growing too big for its boots.
This does not mean the Pakistanis are evil, all it means is the US arrival in Afghanistan and destruction of the Taliban also destroyed the entire Pakistani policy of strategic depth and of denying India a foothold in Afghanistan (which has traditionally been close to India). The primary Pakistan purpose is to get the US/West out of Afghanistan, and our people say Afghanistan is just about done - 85% is under Taliban control, the situation is much worse than the press realizes.
The US military/state/intelligence in the field is perfectly aware of what is going on, but when it tells Washington, Washington's basic reply is: "5% of Pakistani cooperation is better than no cooperation. What's our alternative if we abandon Pakistan? Where are the supplies going to go through?" (BTW, US is moving something like 1.2-million tons a year through Pakistan) Not only are alternate routes at least a year away, but they create their own problems because Russia is going to want a very great deal for agreeing.
This entire mess has come about because the US wants to fight the GWOT with what? 50 brigade equivalents for the whole world? You just cannot substiute manpower with technology in CI, there are no ifs, buts, and maybes. How many troops can the US send, 10 brigades? That's a drop in the sea, and what is more, IMHO, the way the west conducts operations, with force protection as its primary goal, is a one way street to defeat.
US has so far refused India's help because obviously Pakistan will not allow it, and supplies have to go through Pakistan. India can supply any amount of manpower you want, and its soldiers are used to hardship, they are used to casualties, and they a tenth of the tonnage the US does, But then how to supply the Indians?
The situation is getting so bad that we hear murmers of: "Declare Pakistan a failed state in Baluchistan/NWFP, seize Gwader, and force a route to south Afghanistan to join the "garland" highway route around Afghanistan."
Frankly, we ourselves were a bit amazed that anyone would come up with this option even as a thought experiment.
But then, we asked ourselves: "What's the alternative? If the US cannopt get the Indians into Afghanistan, afghanistan is lost in 2009, and if someone it survives the coming year, in 2010.:
US is between a rock and a very inflexible place. Some really, really hard decisions will have to be made or else the game is over. No course of action is without the gravest of risks.
But you know what? No one in their right mind would have launched a corss-English Channel operation 60 years ago. The entire idea was insane from the word Go to start planning. If any of a hundred things had not fell into place, you would have seen the greatest defeat America has ever seen. But the US knew it had no choice, and it was in the war to win at all costs. So it followed a simple military rule: the point of warfare is to impose your will on the enemy. Its not a question of what's realistic or not. Its a question of how badly you want to win.
And you further know what? From that day after 9/11, the US has not been serious about winning the GWOT.
^^^Thanks.
Frankly, with the exception of few morsels of new information(*), Ravi Rikhye did not say anything that can’t be found in this thread. He basically keeps repeating, "the US will lose w/o India".
He did NOT offer any plausible explanation of HOW to supply 120,000 Indian troops except an implausible option of invading and occupying a piece of Pakistan. He did not explain WHY Pakistan would just peacefully watch it’s own demise.
(*)
some asked this and Ravi Rikhye answered:"US is moving something like 1.2-million tons a year through Pakistan"
interesting reading.
As the writer of the original report let me assure everyone that the offer is under serious consideration by the Indian Govt. They'd like to present it to the incoming US President as a sort of goodwill offer.However its early days yet and the project will take some time to near realisation.
The offer is certainly worthwhile. India can deploy large numbers of battle-hardened troops with decades of experience fighting Jihadi terrorists and guerrillas in Kashmir and other insurgents in India's North-East. Unlike European nations the Indians can take casualties in the national interest, they have a grudge with the Taliban and Indian troops will take absolute pleasure in taking on Pakistani-sponsored forces.
If an alternative supply route is worked out one can then be quite sure that India will deploy troops in Afghanistan.There's a lot of anger in India over continuing Jihadi terrorism which threatens social and communal harmony and economic progress.
welcome.
120000, men.
how many div. and what support element will go with it?
ANy chance of Cancelliong this offer??????????
Any thing can happen as this is the election time..................
Nothing is decided yet. I would think that initially at least div+ would be sent with all the necessary supporting arms including air support and transport and special forces. There's also a strong likelihood of specialised CI units like the RR being deployed.
The issue will necessarily become politicised with it being milked for all its worth in an election year.
hmmm thanks for the info..........seems Our netas attitude is chainging
Their attitude has to change. The world's a changing place, India is going places.We can no longer afford to be isolationist. Most importantly can a rising India be held hostage by fanatics and fundos ?
BY the way who proposed such a kind of deployment?????????
Is it a group of people or a specific person???????
Hi, im talking from memory here. Bear with me if im wrong.(or correct me. even better)
120000 men. I would assume several combat division with combat support unit as well as supply and transport unit.
Now assuming this forces main objective are really to combat taliban. Will it have armored or mechanized division in it? will it have air defence unit too? or is it shaped in a counter insurgency only? Like the one in kashmir?
I ask this because, if this forces were in fact to deal with taliban (which from indian point of view are just another branch of pakistan military arm and i quote bellow) , this corps size indian contingent will be seen from pakistani view as a valid threat, therefor (they) will allocate (or split if its the correct terms) a counter forces of the same size.(or bigger)
People have to understand that the Pakistan does NOT want to fight the Taliban because the Taliban on both sides of the border are instruments of Pakistan military and foreign policy. They are in effect another arm of the Pakistan military.
If this hypothetical force (pakistan) were a complete combine arms army or corps sized unit. Its only logic the Indian 120000 men strong will also consist of a few armored or mechanized division too.
if that so, the cost of running this army (in afganistan) will be meteoric. Which let to my question earlier. Will the Indian law maker approve such budget?
Ha...practically goes without saying, now..YES!
Something about this tells me it will let the crap hit the fan.
