Analysis: China can't buy Sukhoi jets

[Dark-Angel25]

by Andrei Chang
Hong Kong (UPI) Mar 25, 2009
Some Western media have reported that China is negotiating with Russian aircraft manufacturer Sukhoi Co. for the procurement of 14 Su-33 shipborne fighters, claiming that the contract on the deal will be signed soon.

However, Boris D. Bregman, first deputy general director of Sukhoi, said the talks with China are still only at the consultation stage. While confirming that contacts were ongoing, he said no official negotiations had been initiated so far.
The information that China intended to import 14 Sukhoi Su-33 fighters came from the Russian military industry delegation attending the Zhuhai Air Show in 2006. Members of the delegation said China had indicated it would eventually require about 50 Sukhoi Su-33s to arm several aircraft carrier battle groups.
China had initially requested only two fighters, then raised its request to 14, to be procured in two groups of seven, a Russian military-industry source said. However, given its past record of copying Russian technology, suspicions were high that the Chinese intended to produce their own version of the fighter plane, using the Sukhoi Su-33 as a model.
A Russian official told United Press International that producing only seven aircraft in one batch was not feasible, as production of the Sukhoi Su-33 had already been suspended and the cost of reconstructing the production facilities was too high for such a small order.
However, Bregman told the author that his company could produce an upgraded variant of the Sukhoi Su-33 for export, according to the purchaser's requirements, if the deal was right.
Some reports have suggested that a version of the aircraft specifically designed for China -- referred to as the Sukhoi Su-33K -- could be built to the standard of the Sukhoi Su-30MK2, which has upgraded electronics that support anti-ship missiles, or even fitted with Irbis or Bars phased-array radar systems. The former is currently installed on Sukhoi Su-35 fighters.
However, these modifications seem unlikely. The Irbis has a maximum power output of 20 kilowatts; therefore, the Sukhoi Su-33's power supply would be far from enough to support it.
The Bars passive phased-array radar is mainly employed on the Sukhoi Su-30MKM/MKI fighters currently in use by the Malaysian and Indian air forces. The Russian Defense Ministry has not yet officially approved the export of this type of radar system to China.
China and Russia have not yet been able to reach agreement on the procurement of the Sukhoi Su-33 fighters. Negotiations on the deal are still only in the initial stages, and China will place its priorities elsewhere in 2009.
The Chinese navy will continue its work on constructing an aircraft carrier; at the same time, it will consider its options with regard to the selection of shipborne fighter aircraft. Since the aircraft carrier construction is likely to take at least another five to six years, it is not impossible that China may develop a shipborne variant of its own J-10A and J-11BH fighters during this period.
However, Sukhoi may eventually restart its Su-33 production line because the Russian navy is about to resume its own "grand aircraft carrier program."
Aviation weapons observers based in Moscow say that a more realistic purchase order of Sukhoi Su-33 fighters would be 24 or more in order to make the start-up of the production line cost-effective. Therefore, China may either have to increase its order or find another solution to the problem of procuring shipborne fighter aircraft. (Andrei Chang is editor in chief of Kanwa Defense Review Monthly, registered in Toronto.)

http://www.spacewar.com/reports/Anal..._jets_999.html

[BlackJack22]

I thought I heard somthing about Russia not wanting to sell China anything because they copied it. Russia was amazed how they could copy their weapons just from photograghs.

[matthew.manhorn]

Wait...was the J-11 a licensed copy? If so I don't see any problems with Su-33.

[wicked_hind]

Wait...was the J-11 a licensed copy? If so I don't see any problems with Su-33.

The problem is that the Chinese only wanted to order two and the Russians didn't see the idea of re-opening the production line, just to build only two Su-33s as cost effective. Obviously, they would think the Chinese would copy the Su-33 for that reason.

[GazB]

I thought I heard somthing about Russia not wanting to sell China anything because they copied it. Russia was amazed how they could copy their weapons just from photograghs.

Not quite. If they could copy just from photographs then they wouldn't even bother asking to buy any aircraft... they'd just take photos.

The Chinese got a licence to produce some Flankers in the 90s. Then they started producing their "Own aircraft" that looks exactly like a Flanker. In other words they bought the tools and plans to make Flankers and then started making some extra ones for themselves. Now they want to buy a modified Su-27 called a Su-33 which has a few minor changes like strenghening for carrier use and a tailhook and folding wings and tails and nose to be small in a ship.

The Russians are saying no to selling them two Su-33s and are also saying that anything less than an order for 24 aircraft will not even be considered because they need to retool up and restart production to make them.
They are talking about the Su-33 and not the Su-33KUB which is a much more capable aircraft, which I doubt they would consider selling to the Chinese simply because they probably don't want to have to go up against them in 20 years time.

[cold_warrior]

Not quite. If they could copy just from photographs then they wouldn't even bother asking to buy any aircraft... they'd just take photos.

The Chinese got a licence to produce some Flankers in the 90s. Then they started producing their "Own aircraft" that looks exactly like a Flanker. In other words they bought the tools and plans to make Flankers and then started making some extra ones for themselves. Now they want to buy a modified Su-27 called a Su-33 which has a few minor changes like strenghening for carrier use and a tailhook and folding wings and tails and nose to be small in a ship.

The Russians are saying no to selling them two Su-33s and are also saying that anything less than an order for 24 aircraft will not even be considered because they need to retool up and restart production to make them.
They are talking about the Su-33 and not the Su-33KUB which is a much more capable aircraft, which I doubt they would consider selling to the Chinese simply because they probably don't want to have to go up against them in 20 years time.

I agree 100%.

[Red_Rage]

Ukranians sold the T-11 to Chinese, which was a prototype for Su-33. Not sure how significant is the difference between T-11 and production Su-33, but ChiCom definatrely got some reference material to plagerize from.

[GazB]

Ukranians sold the T-11 to Chinese, which was a prototype for Su-33. Not sure how significant is the difference between T-11 and production Su-33, but ChiCom definatrely got some reference material to plagerize from.

They can copy to a certain level and are experts in doing that. They can't however just copy any old thing... if you dropped an F-22 in their lap I doubt they could reproduce the engines to the same level for example. They could determine what materials are used and the shapes and precise dimensions but that is not the same as being able to put it into mass production. Besides for the Chinese, the export potential of a specialised aircraft like the Su-33 is probably zero. They might make 60 or so for themselves but who else is going to want to use it without the support of the original designer. For example for the Chinese to offer to sell Su-33s to India they would also have to offer carriers they could fly from as well.