Reply With QuoteMore of what going Israel to do, I wonder what the US and the EU will do......
Hezbollah, allies positioning to win election
With quiet campaigning and moderate talk, Hezbollah is building its strength for Lebanon's June 7 parliamentary elections - and the militant Shi'ite Muslim group and its allies stand a good chance of winning.
That could mean a stunning shake-up for one of the Middle East's most volatile countries if the pro-U.S. government is replaced with a coalition dominated from behind the scenes by Hezbollah, the political movement and guerrilla group widely seen as the proxy of Iran and Syria in Lebanon.
The U.S. and Israel consider Hezbollah a terrorist organization, and their biggest fear is that a win by the group and its allies would increase the sway of Iran and Syria. The U.S. ambassador in Beirut has already expressed concern, and opponents warn that a Hezbollah win will result in the West isolating Lebanon and Washington reducing its millions in aid.
Hezbollah, whose name means "party of God," has run a low-key election campaign with a moderate message, aiming to show that a victory by its coalition should not scare anyone.
Hezbollah's leader, Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, has even said that if the coalition wins, it would invite its opponents to join in a national unity government to ensure stability. His deputy, Sheik Naim Kassem, says the West will have to accept the election results.
Sheik Kassem said foreign diplomats are already approaching Hezbollah, "some wanting to open a new page." Britain has said it is willing to talk to Hezbollah's political wing, and a Hezbollah member of the current Lebanese parliament recently traveled to London.
The moderate tone is in part because Hezbollah does not want to suffer the same fate as its Palestinian militant ally Hamas, which won legislative elections in 2006 but was boycotted by the West and crippled by an Israel-led closure of the Gaza Strip.
"There are pitfalls for winning or losing," said Hezbollah expert Amal Saad-Ghorayeb. "They [Hezbollah] see the dangers of winning."
Nevertheless, a Hezbollah win would almost certainly mean changes that would dismay the West and Israel. It would mean less pressure from Lebanon's government to rein in Hezbollah's arsenal of rockets pointed at the Jewish state - weapons employed in the 2006 war with Israel - and more backing for efforts to change Lebanon's electoral system to solidify Shi'ite power further.
Israel's worry is "whether Iran and Syria will succeed in adding Lebanon to their bloc," said Israeli political analyst Barry Rubin. "It would be a huge defeat for the West."
So far, Hezbollah has campaigned quietly, with none of its trademark fiery anti-Israel rallies. Its 10 candidates have been holding town hall meetings in Shi'ite villages, focusing on promises to root out corruption and improve government performance, and stressing government by consensus.
By contrast, leaders from the U.S.-backed majority have held three splashy rallies since February before several thousand people in a Beirut hall, with balloons, confetti and speakers projected on a giant screen.
Sheik Nasrallah says Hezbollah knows that trying to dominate Lebanon's politics would destabilize the country, which in the past four years nearly tumbled into a repeat of the 1975-90 civil war as the pro-Syria and pro-U.S. camps struggled for the upper hand.
"In such a sectarian system, it is in the interest of Lebanon and its stability that there is understanding and partnership among Lebanese in running their country's affairs," he said in a recent televised speech.
Under Lebanon's complex political system, no group can rule alone. The 128-member legislature must be half-Christian and half-Muslim, with the Christians divided among Orthodox and Catholic parties and the Muslims among Shi'ite, Sunni, Druse and Alawite sects. Moreover, in any government, the prime minister must be a Sunni, so Hezbollah would need allies from that sect.
Lebanon's 4 million population is roughly divided in thirds between Christians, Sunnis and Shi'ites, with smaller sects mixed in. The exact numbers are unknown because a census would be too politically risky. The last one was held in 1932.
The pro-U.S. bloc - largely Sunnis with Christian allies - holds 70 seats in the 128-member parliament, so a handful of races could tip the balance.
Hezbollah is running 10 candidates - one less than it has in the current parliament after withdrawing from one constituency to give a seat to an allied party. All the Hezbollah candidates will likely win easily given the movement's overwhelming support among Shi'ites.
Its coalition of pro-Syrian, Shi'ite and several Christian parties now has 58 seats in parliament. About 30 seats - from both camps - are reported to be a toss-ups. But some political analysts say Hezbollah's coalition has a strong chance of winning a majority because smaller electoral districts created since the 2005 election favor its candidates. There are no reliable independent polls in Lebanon.
The leader of the pro-U.S. bloc, Sunni billionaire Saad Hariri, has said a Hezbollah win would "put Lebanon into very difficult times," threatening its economic growth.
In an interview with Beirut's Naharnet news Web site, U.S. Ambassador Michele Sison warned that American relations with Lebanon - and future U.S. aid - "will be evaluated in the context of the new government's policies and statements." Since 2006, the United States has committed more than a billion dollars to Lebanon, including $410 million to the country's security forces.
A victory by the pro-Syrian coalition would likely see Hezbollah pushing to fulfill its campaign promise to eliminate the sectarian distribution of parliament seats, which would boost the power of the growing Shi'ite population. Hezbollah would also see a win as a mandate for its opposition to U.S. Middle East policies and its strong anti-Israeli line.
http://washingtontimes.com/news/2009...yes-elections/
This ain't looking good for Israel's northern border. I wonder what Israel will do if Hezbollah has actually won the elections, as I cannot imagine Israel sit idly by to see Hezbollah growing even stronger.
More of what going Israel to do, I wonder what the US and the EU will do......
I for one think it's a good thing, in a twisted kind of way.
Israel's problem with hizbulla is that it's not a conventional army. but if it will be elected as the lebanese official head, it will mean that now Israel does have a clear target, (no pun intended).
An official head of state will have to abide by international law and procedures, making the guerilla hizbulla a conformist.
It also means they will have less troubles importing military equipment from Syria and other countries...Originally Posted by Octavaria
Well we cannot have it boths ways. We ask for 'democracy' in the middle east and Hezbollah win the elections? Just shows the locals are voting their conscience. It also shows that despite rightist fantasies, parties like Hamas and Hezbollah won't go away. Yes, military action may curtail their violent tendencies but in the end, an inclusive solution is more likely than the fantasy that the US or the mighty IDF willl eradicate them entirely.
You're right in a sense...We ask for democracy and we get it. "Free" elections...only to find out that the majority is composed of the same anti-Israel terrorists we were hoping to get rid of. In my opinion, in the end, the only option is not going to be inclusion...but eradication.
You are pretty much correct.. Thats why i believe that HZB does not want a landslide win.. They are happy with the current situation where they can effectively paralyze any decision made by the Lebanese government.
first of all its not just hezbollah they only have 11 seats they have allies too. and 2nd if they win or not they have the real power they have the guns and they do what they want to who they want when ever they want. we saw this in 2006 and in may 7 2008 when they attacked beirut. they are run by iran and can care less if they win or not. if they do win it will just boost them a little and if they lose it wont bother them one bit. they lost the last election and they still pushed for veto power. in what other country does the minority have more power then the democratically elected majority
Eradicating Hezbollah or eradicating everyone that supports them? It's not going to happen. Force might convince them to give up violence one day - or encourage more - but the only way Hezbollah will stop being such a nuisance is when they become part of the solution instead of the problem.
Don't Leftists, such as yourself, have fantasies of Hamas and Hezbollah disappearing off the face of the Earth?
The only "inclusion" these thugs will bear is "inclusion" of Israeli territory into Greater Palestine, totally devoid of Jews and anyone else who won't willingly join the 8th Century. How do we overcome that? How do we overcome endless violations of ceasefires by Hamas and Hezbollah? Or is that just another deluded rightist fantasy? Am I just a deluded rightist with stars (of David) in my eyes?
When I was in Beirut, it was called, The Paris of the Middle East. The Palestinians took care of that image, and now radicalism is getting ready to set them back a thousand years.
"Dave, will I dream?" - HAL, 9000
@Walter Sobchak,
Free elections for the Lebanese, chances are they will vote for the opposition, which consists of many parties including Hizballah.
It's not about right nor left, its about having to understand the geopolitics of Lebanon from the day it gained its independence. The only true Arab democracy in the middle east and its working. May not be up to par with Israel's likeing, but it works.
Not to mention during the elections in 1983, IDF invaded Beirut and made sure "pro israel" president Bachir Gemayel becomes the president. Israel has not played fair in the past either.
Yeah, we should stand aside watching a terror organization taking control over the Lebanese government..
Democracy or not, that's a threat.
you mean 1982.
(He was assassinated on September 14, 1982)
Well, actually the official stance by Hezbollah looks quite decent, given their past activities.
Maybe they will manage to take a turn like the PLO did ? One must not foget, Hezbollah is not just a guerrilla army ... nor has it been created under the sign of "driving Israelis out into the sea" like Hamas.
So basically, they would have the option to take a turn into a rightful political party without shaking their footing.
I for one will wait and see.
Wut?
http://blog.camera.org/archives/2006/07/post_6.htmlWe see in Israel the vanguard of the United States in our Islamic world. It is the hated enemy that must be fought until the hated ones get what they deserve. This enemy is the greatest danger to our future generations and to the destiny of our lands, particularly as it glorifies the ideas of settlement and expansion, initiated in Palestine, and yearning outward to the extension of the Great Israel, from the Euphrates to the Nile.
Our primary assumption in our fight against Israel states that the Zionist entity is aggressive from its inception, and built on lands wrested from their owners, at the expense of the rights of the Muslim people. Therefore our struggle will end only when this entity is obliterated. We recognize no treaty with it, no cease fire, and no peace agreements, whether separate or consolidated.
We vigorously condemn all plans for negotiation with Israel, and regard all negotiators as enemies, for the reason that such negotiation is nothing but the recognition of the legitimacy of the Zionist occupation of Palestine. Therefore we oppose and reject the Camp David Agreements, the proposals of King Fahd, the Fez and Reagan plan, Brezhnev's and the French-Egyptian proposals, and all other programs that include the recognition (even the implied recognition) of the Zionist entity.
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