134 Billion (with a B) in US Bonds Confiscated

[sinophile]

This story is several weeks old and a repost (ooops), but didn't get the attention it deserved. This is really one of the great mysteries of this decade. Its twice the size of the Bernie Madoff scandal. Its an incomprehensible amount of money to just "turn up" on the border between Italy and Switzerland.

UPDATE: Bloomberg story says bonds are fakes: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=adc1HD7mWY4A
But as of yet the two Japanese are not in custody, nor are they charged with a crime. Its all so odd with very little explanation.

Bloomberg:

Two Japanese men are detained in Italy after allegedly attempting to take $134 billion worth of U.S. bonds over the border into Switzerland. Details are maddeningly sketchy, so naturally the global rumor mill is kicking into high gear.
Are these would-be smugglers agents of Kim Jong Il stashing North Korea’s cash in a Swiss vault? Bagmen for Nigerian Internet scammers? Was the money meant for terrorists looking to buy nuclear warheads? Is Japan dumping its dollars secretly? Are the bonds real or counterfeit?

Analysis from Karl Denneger:

Ok, who has $130 billion in bearer bonds? Remember, bearer instruments haven't been issued by the Treasury since 1982, when they became illegal to issue, at least to US institutions and residents (there was an exception carved out for Treasury instruments issued to non-US residents in 1985 - a time of high deficits) The answer to that question: it is rather unlikely that there remains $130 billion of legitimate US Bearer issuance outstanding anywhere - to anyone.
Mr. Holmes would be initially puzzled by such a caper. On the one hand we have the impossibility of the bonds being real, because there simply isn't $130 billion of issues remaining outstanding. On the other hand we have the impossibility of negotiating a fake $500 million bearer instrument, making the exercise of counterfeiting one expensive and futile.
This leaves us with more questions than answers at this point.
Or does it?
As Mr. Holmes is famously rumored to have said, "once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, however implausible, must be the truth."
So what remains? Let's run a theory here - one of the few possible remaining options, given the exclusion of what we know not to be true...
Are we willing to assume that all the "issue" of Treasury bonds has been done "above board" as required by law. If Treasury has been surreptitiously issuing bonds to, say, Japan, as a means of financing deficits that someone didn't want reported over the last, oh, say 10 or 20 years, then the following is about to occur:
[IMG]http://tickerforum.org/smilies-local/****storm.gif[/IMG]
Who could have possibly been complicit in such a scheme? I can come up with only two nations (and only nations could be involved due to size): The Japanese and Chinese. Since the two individuals who were arrested were reported to be Japanese nationals......
There are tremendous implications in an event like this, again, assuming the bonds are real.
The owner is going to want them back, of course. But Italy is going to keep a third as their statutory penalty for non-declaration on the border. Oops. That's great for Italy, but it blows bananas for the actual owner.
Of course Italy (or the US!) could declare them "fake" and as a consequence simply burn them. If they are in fact real, that's an even bigger problem. See, Bearer Bonds are issued without registration - they are as anonymous as a $100 bill in terms of who owns them. That's one of their "features", and why they were often used for various clandestine money operations. So if they are real and are destroyed, the owner is out of luck - their money is gone just as it is if you burn a $100 bill in an ashtray.
How much is $130 billion in this context? About 1/5th or so of what Japan legitimately owns of US Treasury debt. How would you like to take an instantaneous (and permanent!) 20% haircut on your securities? That's what I thought.

[Alpheus]

Was a repost too.