I don't know redneck, I've been reading this fascinating interview about DPRK http://www.3quarksdaily.com/3quarksd...ht-colin-.html - perhaps your idea of a larger military confrontation isn't so far off the mark. I think it'd be stupid on their part but then again Pyongyang's view is internal. As it says it's promised its people prosperity by 2012 which ain't likely to occur, so maybe then a big nationalist distraction isn't so unlikely.
There's always the danger of them believing in their own BS.
Companies with really smart people like Citi and Enron have fallen prey to it. There's no saying that it won't happen with the North Koreans.
the key to any endeavor is the ability to think straight
Does DPRK have the necessary sea-lift capability to transport enough troops to defeat the ROKMC garrison in Baekryeong island? I'm thinking of hovercrafts, but if DPRK suddenly started amassing large number of hovercrafts along the border for an intrusion, we would know their intent and we would be prepared for them (I think hovercrafts are the only littoral sea-lift asset that they have in significant numbers; we're talking about '50,000 amphibious assault infantry').
They don't have the capability for that. I would imagine the only realistic shot they would have would be to give these Commandos floatation devices and then drop them off in the water and let the current take them to Baekryoung-do. Plenty will miss the island and drown but this is probably the most realistic shot they have at landing any sizable force on that island.