Libya Unrest Thread

[Breakfast in Vegas]

There will be a steady stream of 'refugees' from Libya no matter what. No less after Ghaddafi falls from power - perhaps even more. If reducing the number of people migrating to europe through Libya was the true goal, it would have been easier to make a deal with Ghaddafi. Perhaps the truth is that Sarkozy, an unpopular president, wanted a 'just' war to boost his popularity. Obama, seen as weak by many, perhaps wanted the same thing. An easy, limited campaign to score political points. Perhaps they thought this would be welcomed by the arab world as well. It doesn't seem that it has been a well thought out plan. Now it actually appears as if nobody knows what the hell to do.

I tend to agree on your thoughts regarding Sarkozy's motivation. I also considered he might be trying to score points with the Arabs in his country. Not sure on this, but the thought does come to mind.

As for Obama, I still think he was an unwilling participant without the courage to say no. Now he is opportunist and also seems to be tyring to score points with the Muslim states by lending a hand to the "Arab Spring". If so, it is a very risky gambit.

As for Libyan refugees, I am sure they'll integrate just as well as the Somalis and Kosovo Albanians before them.

[kalerab]

Libya rebels flee Gadhafi assault as world debates



http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/af_libya

Theyve been just 50km from sirte and now, after what gaddafi lost so much in adjabiya and benghazi, they lost even ras lanuf. It seems they can fight in cities (adjabiya, misratah or zawiya) but when it comes to offense theyre toasted.

[Alienfreak]

If it weren't for NATO providing CAS, Ghadaffi probably would have beaten the rebels by now and retaken control of the country. He may still be able to retake the country in spite of the NATO air strikes. All you have to do is look at the rebel "strategy" or lack thereof.

Of course Big G would have crushed them within days.

But I don't think he can retake Benghazi. He simply can't transport any troops there. Even if the rebels can't take Tripoli or Sirte Big G can't beat them.

[Chaosmarine1]

Of course Big G would have crushed them within days.

But I don't think he can retake Benghazi. He simply can't transport any troops there. Even if the rebels can't take Tripoli or Sirte Big G can't beat them.

Rebels need to hire their own mercs, oh that would be bad wouldn't it. :P

[Arnie100]

Even if the rebels can't take Tripoli or Sirte Big G can't beat them.

How do you know that? Every time the rebels make advances, the rebels get beaten back furher and further, in spite of NATO airstrikes. Just yesterday, they were jumpinf up and down with joy, now they're running with their tails behind their legs.

[JCR]

A weird situation, basically both sides can't take to the offensive.
Ghaddafi gets destroyed from the air if he does, the rebels are simply not can't because they're not competent enough soldiers or better, they're an unorganized mob of technicals and posers with too many heavy weapons.
A competent machine gun team (competent = actually aiming their weapon) should be able to hold them up almost indefinitely.
Arming the rebels is not the problem, they've got more than enough arms allready.

[kalerab]

defected soldiers needs to mobilize asap and take command. Soldiers from kufra region joined rebellion recently and as they have already established chain of command they would make valuable reinforcements. But with this disorganized militia which retreats every time they face mortar fire they cannot take sirt.

[kalerab]

11:45 BBC The latest agency despatches from Libya suggest rebels have retaken the key oil port of Ras Lanuf, while we’re also hearing reports of coalition airstrikes near Uqaylah.

Well, it is something.

[JCR]

defected soldiers needs to mobilize asap and take command. Soldiers from kufra region joined rebellion recently and as they have already established chain of command they would make valuable reinforcements. But with this disorganized militia which retreats every time they face mortar fire they cannot take sirt.

From articles I gather that ex soldiers are mistrusted among the rebels.
At least professional soldiers, that is.

[KoTeMoRe]

Lawb get your arse out of here...it's a snakepit. There's nothing you can say that makes some of these people think thoroughly. And when you do, trolls get personnal. So please my friend lurk, laugh and please bury me somewhere proper when I'm done (a toilet would be fine )

Ras Lanuf still not taken...GaGa's forces keep trying to get hold of the Oil Terminal. And get blasted.

Xav (and all the others): No problem...

[themacedonian]

12:10pm

Bays also describes the tactics being used by Gaddafi's forces. They send mobile mortar teams several kilometres off the main road, flank the disorganised rebel columns, and begin shelling them from a distance. Almost without fail, the mortar fire - possibly combined with long-range Grad rocket attacks - has forced rebels to retreat.

[kalerab]

From articles I gather that ex soldiers are mistrusted among the rebels.
At least professional soldiers, that is.

Shees, like they can afford to be picky.

[Nightsky]

Toyota brigades out of Ras Lanuf, as loyalists reoccupied the oil port. It seems Daffy forces are using small mobile units now in order to appear more like rebel forces, thus evading allied air strikes.

[KoTeMoRe]

Looks also like they do not "fight" anymore. They raid. Kill a handful of rebels and go back.

[afreu]

Toyota brigades out of Ras Lanuf, as loyalists reoccupied the oil port. It seems Daffy forces are using small mobile units now in order to appear more like rebel forces, thus evading allied air strikes.

Some media reports talk about coalition aircraft providing close air support for the rebels.

But how effective can CAS be without friendly troops on the ground providing guidance? Is it possible for coalition aircraft to intervene in the actual fighting with only aerial assets available for identification of targets and friendlies/neutrals? Moreover, doesn't Gaddafi's tactic of immitating rebel appearance, reduce the effectiveness of coalition CAS even further?