Reply With QuoteIf Syria goes to hell, what will happen in Lebanon?Originally Posted by GB_FXST
Oh, I happen to agree with you on this one. But, along with Assad, I also prefer the known devils of Mubarak and Gaddafi.
I am simply surprised to see you support Assad as the lesser of evils.
If Syria goes to hell, what will happen in Lebanon?
I say well done to security forces.
My interest in Lebanon is (admitedly selfishly) focused on Hezbollah. An unstable Syria is a doubled edged sword, as Assad's regime both supports and restrains Hezbollah. That said, Assad is a secularist, and thus essentially a pragmatists of sorts. A radical Sunni/Islamist regime is definitely not in Israel's interest. And, I suspect, theological disputes with Shia Hezbollah will take a back seat to a common enemy, Israel.
Actually, that's what he is. His support to Hezbollah is something temporary, he'll have no problem to abandon them if needed.
I agree that Assad is loyal to only himself, and will ruthlessly protect his interest and his place in power.
According to some friends they were preparing protest since protests start in Tunus '-'
Only two killed?
Wow...Syria is like the most progressive "democratically challenged" Arab nation......only 2 dead?
Compared to the likes of Yemen, Libya, Tunisia, and Egypt.....Syria is like the little ole' liberal Iceland of the Middle East...I kid I kid.
At least they're not cordoning off a city and turning it into a parking lot like Hama in 82.
^^^
Greek media reporting 5 deads.....
edit:......and many wounded from gunfire.
If the protest movement expands in Syria, it will be blood up to the knees.
The ruling elite have too much to lose; it will be back to serfdom for the alawites.
The world and Israel does not need a "free democrazy" government in Syria.
I reckon they'd go all in and try for Hama2.0 to stall the fall.....what options do they have(for long-term minority dictatorships) besides slaughtering their way back to full and clear control, or escaping....
but to where?
Who would take them?
And would they be willing to accept being mortals?
No more nation state running wiseguys?
No more power?
They'd be just normal schmucks even if they could negotiate their way into exile somewhere that accepts their filth.
In many respects they are like a mafia clan living in a mafia controlled city(for now) under a glass dome....the only way out of the life they chose or accepted is in a pine box if they're lucky.
^^^
Except that Bashir is the Freddo Corleone of the Assad Family.
I disagree on this one. If the Assad's regime ever falls, this would most likely mean the end of military/financial support for Hezb. In the worst case scenario Israel would have nothing to lose anyway, so actually it would be better for Israel if the Syrian regime is brought down. Not to mention that this would increase the likelihood of a peace agreement between the two countries.
The Alewites can only stay in power through opposing Israel, this is how they can somewhat temper the desires of the larger elements of society. Anyway, without Assad it will probably be some other nutjobs, and the Alewites (and Christians) will likely end up shot. They won't give up.
@Player, who do you think is the largest group in Syria, both by political mindset and religious sext? The only peace Israel can have with Syria is making sure they are too weak - militarily and politically - to get a grip on the Golan.
Posting Permissions
