Protests in Syria - Discussion Thread

[Laworkerbee]

I believe we can reach to truth with mixing both views i guess cause media became pretty weird especially last years.

That's why we have this thread my friend. Throw it all in, shake it up, and in the end we get closer to the truth.

At least that's how it's supposed to work

Indeed they are. At least among the German journos there is a war going on not unlike what you can see on MP.net.
Both sides try to come out on top with their viewpoint.

Be nice if they could drop the viewpoints and just report what they see, then again, they're dealing with people who show them what they want the journo's to see, so in the end it comes down to experience and instinct of the reporting journo. Which is a big reason I've put so much stock in Herr Todenhofer's report, because he has the experience and knows how to wade through the bullshit.

[Andree Benussia]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...025270434.html

Looks like the 10% of the Syrian population that are Christian are now being forced to fight or flee. They have traditionally been allied with the Alawites, and enjoyed tolerance and even support from the Assad regime. The rebels are 90%+ Sunni. To me this looks like for the most part is boiling down now to Alawites, Christians and other minorities VS Sunnis civil war. Any pro democratic rebel opposition which lead the initial uprising against Assad is being more and more marginalized by radical elements. The only way Syria will sruvie this as a unified state is if one side gains total victory, hundreds of thousends on the other side die, or are forced to flee. Either way I doubt the Syrian christian community will be able to recover from this. Remember, population of christians in Iraq droped by 50% in the years following the 2003 invasion. Not to mention the fate of the Alawites, should Assad fall. What a mess.

[themacedonian]

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/NG24Ak02.html

Good find. Few people here will simply ignore it ....

[coltfan111]

Probably won't see any big infighting until Assad is toppled and power is divided.

I too highly doubt the bloodshed will end wth Assad. I also fear greatly for the other minorities in Syria (other tha the Kurds who can more than handle thier own business up in the North East). I really do fear that due to the verocity of the civil war the Alawites and Christians (perhaps even the Druze) will be heavily persecuted against. I really feel if Assad does fall then a series of de-facto states must be made in order to stop this.

Then there is the issue of which entity of the revolt will take power, and judging by reigonal momentum it will likely be the more fundamentalis Sunni movements. It really is an impending mess.

[Laworkerbee]

I too highly doubt the bloodshed will end wth Assad. I also fear greatly for the other minorities in Syria (other tha the Kurds who can more than handle thier own business up in the North East). I really do fear that due to the verocity of the civil war the Alawites and Christians (perhaps even the Druze) will be heavily persecuted against. I really feel if Assad does fall then a series of de-facto states must be made in order to stop this.

Then there is the issue of which entity of the revolt will take power, and judging by reigonal momentum it will likely be the more fundamentalis Sunni movements. It really is an impending mess.

The Sunni's have backers of arms and men - Something the Alawites and Christians can't compete with. In the end the Alawites and Christians will have to bow to a Sunni state and the long feared Shia crescent stretching from Iran to Lebanon will be no more.

[Ulytau]

^^^^

If something happen i have a feeling majority of Nusayris (Arab Alawis) will come here even maybe Christians (especially to Hatay)

[PDT89]

I literally have about 30 seconds to say this so use google to get a more detailed description, but reports are out that APPARENTLY, Assad has established a new command center and publicly announced he is opening the doors to the PKK and supporting them in retaliantion to recent assasinations in his chain of command.....if this is true, someones guess that those kills were a result of turkish and british special forces planning were correct....

Anyway i dont trust news channels so someone should do a detailed search i dont have time sorry folks

[tanks_alot]

The Sunni's have backers of arms and men - Something the Alawites and Christians can't compete with. In the end the Alawites and Christians will have to bow to a Sunni state and the long feared Shia crescent stretching from Iran to Lebanon will be no more.

Seriously? it's still a regular, relatively well equiped army VS the FSA which is using guerrilla tactics. and while the FSA has it's share of support, the Alawites have Russia, Iran and Hezballah. on paper they should be able to compete just fine. however, anyway you look at it, for decades Syria had been about a small religious minority brutally ruling over the majority. it had to blow up in their face at some point.

[Laworkerbee]

Seriously? it's still a regular, relatively well equiped army VS the FSA which is using guerrilla tactics. and while the FSA has it's share of support, the Alawites have Russia, Iran and Hezballah. on paper they should be able to compete just fine. however, anyway you look at it, for decades Syria had been about a small religious minority brutally ruling over the majority. it had to blow up in their face at some point.

Think about it Post Assad - The Sunni already have a logistical pipeline active for Haji's and weapons - Who do the Alawites and Christians have backing them up? Surely not nation states as the Sunni have with Qatar and S.A. I highly doubt Russians are going to fly Antonov's into Syria to bring in ammunition and supplies to varied Christian communities.

I personally don't think the Syrian government will fall. However, if they keep sending in armor unsupported by infantry then who knows, the Syrians apparently don't care to learn from mistakes.

[kalerab]

Who do the Alawites and Christians have backing them up?

Aoun, Nasrallah, Maliki. If than can take weapons from army warehouses, they will have enough bullets for next 2 generations.

[Redox]

Can anyone an imagine an intervention of Hezballah on Assads side? They are surely one of the more capable forces in the region.

But I guess they would lose too much credibility in the Arab street if they did that. I am not sure how connected they feel to the Alawites.

[Andree Benussia]

from the above linked article from Laworkerbee

Writing in Bild, longtime German war correspondent Jurgen Todenhofer accused the rebels of "deliberately killing civilians and then presenting them as victims of the government". He described this "massacre-marketing strategy" as being "among the most disgusting things that I have ever experienced in an armed conflict". Todenhofer had recently been to Damascus, where he interviewed Syrian President Bashar al-Assad for Germany's ARD public television.

Wring in Die Welt, Alfred Hackensberger noted that Taldo, the sub-district of Houla where the massacre occurred, has been under rebel control since December 2011 and is in an open plain, making it unlikely that "hundreds of soldiers and Assad supporters" could have entered the village to commit the massacre. (An abridged version of Hackenberger's report also appeared in Die Berliner Morgenpost.) Hackensberger visited Houla to conduct investigations for his report.

This would not surprise me at all. A mix of rebels made up of former Syrian soldiers, former Iraq war insurgents and local radical elements would not exactly be a bunch of humanitarian democracy loving angels. Ultimately both sides employ cruel and merciless tactics to achieve their objectives. The Alawites want to hold on to their power at all cost, because they know that defeat means disaster for their people. The Christians are pretty much tied in to the Alawites fate either way it goes.The Sunnis with %70 of the population want to make it a Sunni state.

[Laworkerbee]

Aoun, Nasrallah, Maliki. If than can take weapons from army warehouses, they will have enough bullets for next 2 generations.

IF is a big word in this instance, numbers also play a big game, but the most important is logistics of both men and arms - Have any of the players you listed publicly started they would back Alawites and Christians in a civil war? We know where the Sunni states stand.

[tanks_alot]

Think about it Post Assad - The Sunni already have a logistical pipeline active for Haji's and weapons - Who do the Alawites and Christians have backing them up? Surely not nation states as the Sunni have with Qatar and S.A. I highly doubt Russians are going to fly Antonov's into Syria to bring in ammunition and supplies to varied Christian communities.

First of all, if it will come to that, Iran and Hezballah will continue supporting the Alawites and these guys are usually a lot more competent than the usual Sunni suspects (SA, Qatar).

However, while it's certainly possible that post Assad Syria will descend into a Lebanon style civil war and break down, it's also possible that the opposite will happen. since Russia will be burned as a backer post Assad, it is not unlikely that whatever will evolve from the FSA will try to make nice with the US and the EU, in order for them to back them. so, perheps that will cause them to stay their hand and offer some sort of reconciliation to the Alawites.

There are so many unknownes in this situation that it's impossible to predict what will happen.

For now, what I'm really worried about, is what's going to happen with Syria's chemical weapons arsenal.

[Laworkerbee]

Good points! Once thing is for sure T.A. and that is it's going to be an interesting year. My main concern is Haji doesn't get his hands on BW\CW weapons capability.