Protests in Syria - Discussion Thread

[IconOfEvi]

http://newspano.com/news/ankara-not-...ia-for-now-F5J

They're not in a position to try to boss the Kurds around

The Kurds already have quite a lot of their areas under effective control. The FSA has broken lines of attack into Syria at best.

The unleashing of the jets and more attack helos points signs to me that Assad is getting ready to close shop, the gateway is closing...the WMDs finally are nearly at Lakatia. Enough time has passed for the required infrastructure to handle the military's remaining equipment is by now probably ready. From then, alls it takes is BMPs and troops armed with flamethrowers and chemical weapons to clear out Lakatia of Sunni villages, and hence, stop a future Sunni minority that becomes a majority (as happened in Lebanon). At least to me, its pretty clear Assad has figured out that he can't hold onto all of Syria. Maybe he and his father knew they could only do so for so long. Maybe he had already figured it out months ago, it's not like he's stupid...at the very least he is cunning. His main goal is to try to now provide a future for his people, even if they don't particularly like him either. With Lakatia purged, the remaining loyal elements of the army will probably just move to Lakatia and leave a power vacuum for the FSA to fight over. Whatever is left will be vulnerable tatters.

I would daresay the first phase of the war is nearly over, which will end with Lakatia's independence, and possibly independence of Syrian Kurdistan. The next implosion is after that. Things will really start heating up if the Iraqi Kurds also secede...giant regional domino which will cause Iranian and Turkish Kurdistan to start active separation steps, backed by a powerful army and functioning state structure. Complementing this, if the Salafis try to make a move and achieve a coup, you'll likely see Aleppo and Damascus start fighting as well, as Damascus is the most Sunni of the areas, while Aleppo has enough minorities that Sunnis are only a plurality, at least far as can be gleamed from figures - and that is likely to be amplified by internal movement. Of course, an Islamic Emirate of Damascus, even if it does happen, doesn't really have a chance - as being Salafis, they have few allies, they will also be at war with the Druze, they will probably even be at war with Lakatia, and then to top things off, someone will try provoking war with Israel and even Iraq. In which case...fun times are ahead!

[Hisroyalhighness]

Russian Arms Ship Loads up with New Secret Cargo

The Russian arms ship at the center of a diplomatic row between Russia and the West is loading up with a new unknown cargo at the St. Petersburg port, according to a bulletin posted on the port’s website on Tuesday.
The Alaed docked at St. Petersburg on Friday after offloading Mi-25 helicopters in the Russian port of Baltiysk in the Kaliningrad region
There has been no word from the ship’s owner, Femco, about the nature of the new cargo.
Femco previously said the documentation accompanying the cargo did not contain any data linking it to Syria.
The Alaed originally set sail from Baltiysk in June, reportedly carrying three Mi-25s and some air defense systems. The ship turned back to Russia later that month, after its insurance cover was suspended by its British insurer, Standard Club. It later turned back and entered the port of Murmansk, and was later re-flagged as a Russian registered vessel.
A Defense Ministry spokesman said on Tuesday warships from Russia’s Baltic and Northern Fleets have passed through the Strait of Gibraltar and entered the Mediterranean, where they will team up with Black Sea Fleet ships for an exercise.
According to some media reports, in the course of the exercise they may call at the Syrian port of Tartus.
Vyacheslav Dzirkaln, deputy head of Russia's military technical cooperation agency, said recently Russian warships will be sent to defend Russian merchant shipping in the event of a blockade due to the situation in Syria.
The U.S. Congress voted to break off all contacts with Russia's state arms corporation Rosoboronexport on Thursday over concerns about Russia continuing to supply arms to Syria. Russia has maintained it is only fulfilling contracts signed before the current wave of unrest in Syria, and said last week it will not supply a batch of Yak-130 advanced jet trainers to Damascus.

[4X4Driver]

They're not in a position to try to boss the Kurds around

The Kurds already have quite a lot of their areas under effective control. The FSA has broken lines of attack into Syria at best.

The unleashing of the jets and more attack helos points signs to me that Assad is getting ready to close shop, the gateway is closing...the WMDs finally are nearly at Lakatia. Enough time has passed for the required infrastructure to handle the military's remaining equipment is by now probably ready. From then, alls it takes is BMPs and troops armed with flamethrowers and chemical weapons to clear out Lakatia of Sunni villages, and hence, stop a future Sunni minority that becomes a majority (as happened in Lebanon). At least to me, its pretty clear Assad has figured out that he can't hold onto all of Syria. Maybe he and his father knew they could only do so for so long. Maybe he had already figured it out months ago, it's not like he's stupid...at the very least he is cunning. His main goal is to try to now provide a future for his people, even if they don't particularly like him either. With Lakatia purged, the remaining loyal elements of the army will probably just move to Lakatia and leave a power vacuum for the FSA to fight over. Whatever is left will be vulnerable tatters.

I would daresay the first phase of the war is nearly over, which will end with Lakatia's independence, and possibly independence of Syrian Kurdistan. The next implosion is after that. Things will really start heating up if the Iraqi Kurds also secede...giant regional domino which will cause Iranian and Turkish Kurdistan to start active separation steps, backed by a powerful army and functioning state structure. Complementing this, if the Salafis try to make a move and achieve a coup, you'll likely see Aleppo and Damascus start fighting as well, as Damascus is the most Sunni of the areas, while Aleppo has enough minorities that Sunnis are only a plurality, at least far as can be gleamed from figures - and that is likely to be amplified by internal movement. Of course, an Islamic Emirate of Damascus, even if it does happen, doesn't really have a chance - as being Salafis, they have few allies, they will also be at war with the Druze, they will probably even be at war with Lakatia, and then to top things off, someone will try provoking war with Israel and even Iraq. In which case...fun times are ahead!

Hmm..interesting thought. While you're at it, why don't you also tell us how the Nato member Turkish military will be taking position against this "powerful army"?

[Token White Guy]

Slain Syrian official supported al Qaeda in Iraq

Read more: http://www.longwarjournal.org/archiv...#ixzz21bF56zEK

[IconOfEvi]

Obviously trying to crush it

But I doubt they'd have the power to crush all the way into Syrian/Iraqi Kurdistan, which are the sections most likely able to form a new state atm.

[IconOfEvi]

Something I came across - significant distributions of Alawites



Seems Highway 5 may indeed be the border, or at least near it.

This is also a little worrying for Turkey - Alexandretta has a lot of Alawites in it. How's stability there at the moment?

Also heard on the BBC that Turkey has 'closed its borders' with Syria...interesting. Depending on the extent, even mroeso. if its closed to regular traffic but refugees are still allowed, I suppose thats de facto the state anyways. But if its ALL traffic, Turkey has played a very interesting and perhaps wise gambit imo. They could be forcing any refugees incoming to stop being ambivalent, and take a stand. Instead of fleeing, they are perhaps encouraging more fighters to sign up. I suppose we'll get the extent in a few hours

[Surenas]

According to this vid this fighter is a Mig 29, but doesn't look like it?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vlbXplumnXM

[gresh]

See video thread^ They've been using jets in Homs for the past couple of days.

[Mordoror]

According to this vid this fighter is a Mig 29, but doesn't look like it?

Look like a L29/L39 or a SU25 to me (too blurry to be sure) certainly not a Mig, any of them

PS ; probably not a SU25 they are not listed in the SyAF

[Ulytau]

Something I came across - significant distributions of Alawites



Seems Highway 5 may indeed be the border, or at least near it.

This is also a little worrying for Turkey - Alexandretta has a lot of Alawites in it. How's stability there at the moment?

Also heard on the BBC that Turkey has 'closed its borders' with Syria...interesting. Depending on the extent, even mroeso. if its closed to regular traffic but refugees are still allowed, I suppose thats de facto the state anyways. But if its ALL traffic, Turkey has played a very interesting and perhaps wise gambit imo. They could be forcing any refugees incoming to stop being ambivalent, and take a stand. Instead of fleeing, they are perhaps encouraging more fighters to sign up. I suppose we'll get the extent in a few hours

Go there with flag of other country and make propaganda to them,they will show you about stability of Hatay,months ago they show about stability of Hatay to some terror supporters,not only in Hatay many of them also living in Adana and Mersin also Istanbul.

PS : I know many of them

[gresh]

Look like a L29/L39 or a SU25 to me (too blurry to be sure) certainly not a Mig, any of them

PS ; probably not a SU25 they are not listed in the SyAF

It's an L-39 Albatross.

Here's some more footage from a BBC reporter who was there witnessing all of that-
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18976988

[OrangeWolf]

Something I came across - significant distributions of Alawites

Yeah but not majorities. That one dot in Israel/Lebanon is a village of 2,000 people.

[IconOfEvi]

Go there with flag of other country and make propaganda to them,they will show you about stability of Hatay,months ago they show about stability of Hatay to some terror supporters,not only in Hatay many of them also living in Adana and Mersin also Istanbul.

PS : I know many of them

No need to get ROW ROW FIGHT DA POWAH with me dude, I was just asking.
Adana and Mersin and Instanbul? I only asked about the Alawites in Hatay, Im not asking about the Kurds.

[4X4Driver]

Something I came across - significant distributions of Alawites



Seems Highway 5 may indeed be the border, or at least near it.

This is also a little worrying for Turkey - Alexandretta has a lot of Alawites in it. How's stability there at the moment?

Also heard on the BBC that Turkey has 'closed its borders' with Syria...interesting. Depending on the extent, even mroeso. if its closed to regular traffic but refugees are still allowed, I suppose thats de facto the state anyways. But if its ALL traffic, Turkey has played a very interesting and perhaps wise gambit imo. They could be forcing any refugees incoming to stop being ambivalent, and take a stand. Instead of fleeing, they are perhaps encouraging more fighters to sign up. I suppose we'll get the extent in a few hours

No worries there mate...Hatay's Alawites has always been one of the most loyal minorities of Turkey.

They've had many opportunities to prove this in the past and recently.

[IconOfEvi]

Okay, thats good. I see

You don't think that'll change if/when Lakatia is proclaimed independent? Turkey should keep an eye on this development closely.