Protests in Syria - Discussion Thread

[my name again]

not really a smart move if his family is realy in rebel territory

The good guys would never go for an innocent family.

[Ulytau]

MOSCOW (*******) - Russia has made no agreement to grant Syrian President Bashar al-Assad asylum and is "not even thinking about" doing so, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Saturday.

The remarks fell short of a statement that Russia would not consider taking in Assad but were among Moscow's strongest indications yet that it is not planning to do so.
"We have said more than once publicly that we are not even thinking about this," Lavrov said when asked about media reports Russia was ready to offer Assad asylum.

http://news.yahoo.com/russia-says-no...171430972.html

[kalerab]

Syrian rebels survive regime onslaught in Aleppo

BEIRUT (AP) — BEIRUT (AP) — The Syrian government launched an offensive Saturday to retake rebel-held neighborhoods in the nation's commercial hub of Aleppo, unleashing artillery, tanks and helicopter gunships against poorly armed opposition fighters.
Yet after a day of fighting, the rag-tag rebel forces remained in control of their neighborhoods in Syria's largest city, said activists, suggesting they had successfully fought off the government's initial assault.

http://www.seattlepi.com/news/articl...#ixzz21xIYes5j

[Hisroyalhighness]

Syria ahead of decisive battle

The Syrian authorities have been bringing reinforcements to Aleppo following the attempts to seize the city by militants of the Free Syrian Army this week. Local residents are leaving the city.


More than 100,000 refugees have left the country and are living in border camps. Human rights campaigners describe the situation on the border as a humanitarian disaster. There has also been an info war over Syria’s chemical weapons.
Syria’s Foreign Ministry warned at the beginning of the week that the authorities might use chemical weapons. Western media picked up the story without paying attention to an important remark that Syria would resort to chemical weapons only in case of a foreign aggression. A spokesman for the Syrian Foreign Ministry underscored that all stockpiles of weapons were under control and the weapons in question would not be used against the opposition. Nevertheless, the US quickly sounded alarm saying that chemical weapons posed a serious danger given the Syrian government’s continuing attacks against the Syrian people. Washington kept silent on the escalation of violence from the rebels. This, and the unwillingness by a number of western countries to condemn the terrorist act in Damascus on July 18th has been described by Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov as a justification of terrorism.
"The US representative in the UN Susan Rice mentioned the terrorist act as evidence that the Security Council could not delay the adoption of a resolution on Syria on the basis of Chapter 7. In other words, the US will support such terrorist acts until the Security Council passes such a resolution. Victoria Nuland chimed in by saying that the opposition was forced to resort to terrorist acts because of the brutal actions on the part of the Assad regime."
The US State Department tried to clarify its position after Lavrov’s statement on Tuesday. Mrs.Nuland said that the US condemned the terrorist act but partially. The US, she said, had always condemned violence in Syria but unlike the previous acts of violence, the July 18 act killed those responsible for this violence.
Meanwhile, the situation near the Syrian-Turkish border has reached a critical point. More than 10 refugee camps have been organized in border areas, each accommodating 10,000 people. Residents of the camps are complaining about water shortages and poor sanitation. According to Turkish media, Syrians are denied the refugee status which strips them of any rights. As the camps are located in economically poor areas of southeast Turkey, people’s discontent over poor living conditions has already led to clashes which had to be quelled with the help of the army and armored personnel carriers in some areas. Oriental Studies expert Andrei Volodin says that the current crisis could cause a humanitarian and political outburst in Turkey.
"Turkey’s restive areas will hardly stay away from the developments. Anti-government groups might take advantage of the situation and rally against the Turkish government. For this reason, it’d be better to put an end to all military operations on the territory of Syria rather than talk about the forthcoming humanitarian disaster."
Turkey closed the border with Syria on Wednesday. Now, experts have been warning about the threat of Syrian violence spilling over to Lebanon. Reports from Lebanon say there have been clashes between Hezbollah militants and groups that support rebels in Syria.
Aleppo has become the scene of fierce clashes between government and rebel forces recently. Militants from the Free Syrian Army attempted to seize the city having penetrated into the region via the border with Turkey. Media and experts say that the current confrontation could be decisive for the country’s future. Opposition forces are set on turning the city into an equivalent of Libya’s Benghazi from which Gaddafi’s opponents advanced on Tripoli. Aleppo’s residents, most of them supporters of the country’s leadership, say that the militants have been instilling terror taking people hostage and using them as human shields.

http://english.ruvr.ru/2012_07_28/Sy...cisive-battle/

[coltfan111]

Syrian rebels survive regime onslaught in Aleppo



http://www.seattlepi.com/news/articl...#ixzz21xIYes5j

It will only be a matter of time, the government forces were never going to have accomplished this by the end of the first day of opperations. Aleppo will be a much harder task than Damascus.

[utelore]

The skill set of the Russian troops guarding that base is of the highest quality. I have heard there may be a reinforced battalion numbering in the hundreds. The biggest thing is they have some very elite snipers operating in the area who would kill FSA who got within a thousand meters. They also have assault company's designed for quick strike duty if they need to get people out of other areas of the country. Not only that they are training Syrian Airborne infantry, naval commandos and ministry of the interior/airforce intelligence/general inteligence special forces who also operate near the base.

[MRAPer]

It will only be a matter of time, the government forces were never going to have accomplished this by the end of the first day of opperations. Aleppo will be a much harder task than Damascus.

I guess so. The encircled rebels have nowhere to go anytime soon.

[Redox]

I guess so. The encircled rebels have nowhere to go anytime soon.

Yeah going for an open battle against a regular army with a lot of tanks and air support seems like sucide. This should end in many casualties for the rebels if they dont disperse and go for guerilla warfare.

[ISNJH]

In the last few days I have watched a number of pro Assad twitter posters and supposed Syrian army tweet rants saying they would clean Aleppo in a single day and kill all FSA very easy after they cleansed Damascus, now a number of those same people are now bemoaning saying why does the FSA stay in Aleppo and not take the fight into the countryside away from the city..

Durring last weeks Damascus Volcano operation it seems the primary reason was to take the pressure off Homs and allow the FSA to move reinforcements to Aleppo and dig in further along with moving supplies and equipments to Aleppo now Assad is having to fight three separate fights in Damascus, Homs and Aleppo. Since the FSA is not fully squashed in Damascus Assad cannot risk deploying troops away from the capital thus stretching forces thinner in other area's

With the majority of Assads forces now stretched around the cities of Damascus,Homs , And Aleppo the smaller towns and cities the FSA is finding it easier to operate and move about in the countryside and from twitter reports from both Pro and Anti Assad news sources the FSA is now hitting the convoys that are traveling back and forth between cities thus requiring each convoy that leaves to bring enough forces to counter attacks on convoy's and thus with further manpower those forces are taken away from the front line along with the increase in use of fuel by mechanized units that are now being forced to patrol and keep supply lines open!

[utelore]

First, supply's from Russia and Iran and even Iraq are coming into Syria virtual unhindered. While the Alawites dont make up a huge portion of the population it does make up enough which is about 2 million which will provide thousands and thousands of reserve troops and militia and most important replacements for existing units. Not only that there are still Many Christians and Sunni still fighting for the regime. You then see volunteers coming in from Iran and Lebanon.

We Know from open sources that the Republican guard, 4th Division (reinforced) and 3rd armored Division are the mechanized iron fist of the regime 40,000+ troops with over 1,000 tanks and AFVs.

Next at least a dozen Special forces regiments, Air force intelligence, Ministry of the interior, General Intelligence, Naval commandos, which make up about 20,000 troops.

Next you have Baath party militia and other thug type militias which may number 20,000 to 40,000. I suspect its on the higher end.

Then we must look at Iran and Hezbollah. I would put this number in the many hundreds. I would also go so far to say that Russian Mercs are also operating and maybe even Russian spetznaz from the GRU or FSB or who knows what could be seeing action.

IN closing you have to also count other Syrian military units and divisions that seem to be responding to orders and conducting operations. Assad has quickly fought off the FSA from the capital and then moved 2 brigade size formations to the north fairly quickly. With seeing this and the numbers above I think its very reasonable to think he has well over 100,000 troops still very to fairly loyal. This is going to go on for a long time. He may even win this

[Tomek29]

Sniped

With your usual glorification of the invincible Syrian army, I shudder to think how strong the FSA must be if they still didn't got defeated.

[ISNJH]

The fact that Assad is having to call on support from outside parties such and Iran and Hezbollah is an indication that the main Syrian army is no longer strong enough to counter the FSA. Also for Hezzbala to enter the fight inside Syria just increases the chance that Israel will launch strikes against Assad's Chemical weapons supplies

[EITAN88]

The fact that Assad is having to call on support from outside parties such and Iran and Hezbollah is an indication that the main Syrian army is no longer strong enough to counter the FSA. Also for Hezzbala to enter the fight inside Syria just increases the chance that Israel will launch strikes against Assad's Chemical weapons supplies

Hizbollah has had a presence in Syria since before the uprising (Hizbollah SCUD units).

The main factor in a preemptive Israeli strike is whether Assad is going to let those SCUDs cross into Lebanon.

[utelore]

With your usual glorification of the invincible Syrian army, I shudder to think how strong the FSA must be if they still didn't got defeated.

Obviously its not invincible nor is it even competent on a overall scale. BUT, its fighting itself and does not have to be. We saw this in iraq after 91 and they were not allowed to use fast movers. just know this is far far from over. When we are talking about this next summer you will see.

[Tomek29]

The whole Aleppo battle seems too much of an ploy to draw out forces from the north, so that the remaining rebel forces take full control over the area.
What interests me, is how many troops FSA has in Turkey in training who are under direct control of its military leadership.

Meanwhile fighting continues in Homs,Hama,Rastan,Damascus...It's clear that Assad lost control of his country.