Protests in Syria - Discussion Thread

[kalerab]

From Baba Amr, supposedly to other districts in Homs they have under control like Bab Sbaa, Bab Drei, Khalidiya, Bayada or others.

[Tiago1337]

you seem to be following this conflict closely

who do you think will win?

[kalerab]

Right now? I have no idea. There are too many variables but I think that without foreign intervention war will rage in Syria for years to come.

[Kher]

As stated they didnt leave Homs, they left Baba Amr which is in Homs.

[Tiago1337]

Right now? I have no idea. There are too many variables but I think that without foreign intervention war will rage in Syria for years to come.

my friend who lives in germany has a syrian friend who also goes to the same school

she told me that 15% at the most support the rebels and that the government has taken out 90% of the rebel force

this is only what someone has told me

[Korathv2]

Right now? I have no idea. There are too many variables but I think that without foreign intervention war will rage in Syria for years to come.

x2. I'm more pessimistic though. Even with a foreign intervention the low level conflict may go on for a very, very long time.

[gresh]

my friend who lives in germany has a syrian friend who also goes to the same school

she told me that 15% at the most support the rebels and that the government has taken out 90% of the rebel force

this is only what someone has told me

Well I hate to break it to you, but your source is incorrect.

[Tiago1337]

what makes you so sure

im not trying to discredit you i just want the most reliable source

[kalerab]

x2. I'm more pessimistic though. Even with a foreign intervention the low level conflict may go on for a very, very long time.

Low-level? Yes. But at least not full scale civil war. Because in my opinion things are going to get a lot worse in coming months.

my friend who lives in germany has a syrian friend who also goes to the same school

she told me that 15% at the most support the rebels and that the government has taken out 90% of the rebel force

this is only what someone has told me

Your source reported that 10 percent of army deserted. That is 30,000 soldiers. Say, half of them joined rebellion and not refugee camps in Jordan or Turkey. That is 15,000. 90 percent losses would be 13,500 dead on rebel side alone. Estimated casulties from last year range from 5 to 8 000 from which majority are civilians. And yet we are not counting civilian militiamen which joined rebellion especially in Idlib province where whole northen part is under their control. So are parts of Homs governorate like Ar Rastan or Qusayr and no one for certain knows what is going on in Deir ez-Zor but I would be extremely surprised if there wasnt rebel activity given proximity to Iraqi border (and the fact that Kurds and Sunnis inhibit that areas and they dont seem to have half a problem with supplying opposition) and whole geography of area. And Assad playing this sectarian line is suicidal.

[Universals]

Right now? I have no idea. There are too many variables but I think that without foreign intervention war will rage in Syria for years to come.

I suppose you mean "without direct foreign intervention" cos if we are talking about just arming rebels to fight Assad; then it's still gonna be a protracted bloodbath. Without any form of foreign meddling, Assad will prevail in due time.

I for one happen to know a real-deal Syrian who's currently studying at the same university as me. He happens to have first class contacts inside Syria (his family and friends, for example, besides social media), and what he reports about the Assad thugs is sure nothing to be proud about. More than one of his personal friends, non-fighting activists, have been abducted and murdered by government troops.

He's an Alawite by the way, but prays the Assad regime will finally come to an end. After this happens, he hopes his relatives will stay unharmed.

And you? What exactly do you know?

That person, my friend, is a very rare Alawite. Even the Israelis aren't delusional about the situation in Syria. They already have contingencies in place for taking Alawite refugees in Golan heights should Assad be deposed. Hanging onto power is much more about survival than it is about Assad's persona for most Alawites.

[Steak-Sauce]

That person, my friend, is a very rare Alawite. Even the Israelis aren't delusional about the situation in Syria. They already have contingencies in place for taking Alawite refugees in Golan heights should Assad be deposed. Hanging onto power is much more about survival than it is about Assad's persona for most Alawites.

I can't remember his exact words, but he said he wouldn't be surprised if a raging mob kills his relatives when Assad is gone. He wouldn't even be angry with them, because he's not able to understand all the suffering non-Alawites have to endure under Assad's heels, especially during a civil war with countless of dead. He just hopes his activists friends in Syria will help to protect his family and make known that they may be Alawites, but certainly don't belong to the pro-Assad branch.

[Universals]

I can't remember his exact words, but he said he wouldn't be surprised if a raging mob kills his relatives when Assad is gone. He wouldn't even be angry with them, because he's not able to understand all the suffering non-Alawites have to endure under Assad's heels, especially during a civil war with countless of dead. He just hopes his activists friends in Syria will help to protect his family and make known that they may be Alawites, but certainly don't belong to the pro-Assad branch.

My point being that whomever is in power screws the other, it's not about good vs evil.

[my name again]

I can't remember his exact words, but he said he wouldn't be surprised if a raging mob kills his relatives when Assad is gone. He wouldn't even be angry with them, because he's not able to understand all the suffering non-Alawites have to endure under Assad's heels, especially during a civil war with countless of dead. He just hopes his activists friends in Syria will help to protect his family and make known that they may be Alawites, but certainly don't belong to the pro-Assad branch.

He sure must have a good relation with his relatives. Whos side is Israle supporting in this conflict?

[JGXL836]

He sure must have a good relation with his relatives. Whos side is Israle supporting in this conflict?

None.

10chars

[kalerab]

UK photographer Paul Conroy - Syria 'is slaughterhouse'

A British photographer injured in Syria says the attacks on the city of Homs are "a systematic slaughter of the civilian population".

Paul Conroy, 47, injured last week in an attack which killed two journalists, told the BBC's Newsnight he feared a massacre was about to occur.

He described Sunday Times journalist Marie Colvin, who was killed in the attack, as the "best of the best".

"I don't know anyone who had her tenacity and bravery," he said.

Mr Conroy, who was smuggled to Lebanon by Syrian rebels, said he had covered "a fair few wars" but what was happening in Homs was "on another level".

He said: "There are no targets in Baba Amr. There are no military targets, it's pure and systematic slaughter of a civilian population. The only reason those shells are going in are to eliminate the people and buildings of Baba Amr.

"I saw it. When I got there, I'd seen the reports, there is no war, it's a slaughterhouse."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-17240610