I wonder how the Druze on the Golan Heights will respond to the fall of the Assad regime. My feeling, they currently support Assad just because he is in charge. And since Israeli policy towards the Golan Heights is inconsistent the fear that "Assad" comes back remains. They also want to show continuous loyalty to Syria but what Syria? What if the Syria of tomorrow is not too tolerant towards their Druze brethern on the other side of the border.
Exactly. In the short term, it may seem interesting for israel that Assad falls. This would undermine the hezbollah, and perhaps that those who will succeed him may be more tolerant, but there are 99% chances that they rather could be more radical.Originally Posted by Tincap
So in the long term, this is not good for israel.
The Golan Druze had a pro Assad demonstration when th riots started. The next week the same protestors had anti Assad demonsrations.
Who cames on top is the one they will be loyal to.
Or an opportunity to create a Druze buffer state at the Golan Heights.
Tanks storm town in Syria crackdown
- Video: Mourners under fire in Syria (7pm TV News NSW)
- Audio: Syrian government sends troops in to attack Deraa (AM)
- Related Story: Australians urged to leave Syria amid 'killing frenzy'
- Related Story: Syria in lockdown after Good Friday 'carnage'
Witnesses in Syria say at least 20 people were killed in the southern town of Deraa yesterday after thousands of troops backed by tanks stormed the town and began firing indiscriminately on civilians.
Reports say the troops poured into Deraa before dawn in a carefully planned operation.
Power, water and mobile phone communications were shut down and checkpoints were set up.
Witnesses say the troops then began firing in every direction, killing an unconfirmed number of people. Some reports put the death toll as high as 25.
The crackdown on protesters has intensified across the country, apparently in retaliation for mass rallies last Friday.
continued
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2...25/3200001.htm
Alfa
This is how the Romans used to handle unrest. It worked most of the time.
If democracy truly takes hold, than the long term benefits could be brighter than we think. But, yes, there's very much the danger of radical elements coming to the top. If Israel was concerned about a secular government, largely controlled by Alawites, imagine the problems a radicalized Sunni regime would pose.
~BG
http://angryarab.blogspot.com/2011/0...ith-doubt.htmlA leftist comrade who I trust sent me this (I cite with his permission but I will keep him anonymous): "Hi As’ad,
I have been going to Syria for several months now due to my work….i am ...; So part of my work is to go to the client’s company.... I have been to Aleppo, Rakka, Hasaka Damascus and also the rural part of Aleppo and Damascus.
Except for Damascus and the Christian neighborhood of Aleppo you would think you are in Kandahar under the rule of Taliban (especially in the rural parts_…As’ad what you see there is scary…burqa3 everywhere…women are barely seen in the streets and the overwhelming majority is covered from head to bottom.
Now I have been thinking about what is happening in Syria…and I have been trying to support the protesters…but I cannot…those people will only bring Taliban alike into power…Saudi Arabia will have the upper hand in the region and Syria will be divided between sects in the best case scenario. (Not to mention that the arms route toward Hezbollah will be cut).
Yesterday in doma the chants were “Alawiyye bi eltabout…w masi7iey 3a Beirut”!! how can we ever support those guys….
I agree that there is another Syrian opposition but these are a minority….those leading the demonstrations are islamists – Saudi style….
All I am saying is that are you sure you want the Syrian regime to collapse…because the more I look at the “rebels”….the more I doubt the whole future of the region…..for the first time in my life I am doubting my decision to live in the region."
My syrian friend that sent me this link, wrote that "Alawiyye bi eltabout ... w masi7iey 3a Beirut" - Alawites in a coffin and Christians to Beirut
Last edited by Yu1980; 04-26-2011 at 01:10 AM.
NSFW - Graphic
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0CRRJ...2621AB&index=5
Syrian security forces shoot at protestors.
Last edited by Hollis; 04-26-2011 at 10:04 AM.
No NFZ for Syria?
Assad and his gang have lost their minds, hopefuuly they wont get away with that...
Last edited by Hollis; 04-26-2011 at 10:03 AM.
The way I see it, it will be beneficial in the long-term for Israel.
Currently you have a Syria that:
A.) is hostile to Israel
B.) is an Iranian/Hezbollah ally
In the event of the toppling of the Allawites, you'd have a Syria that:
A.) is hostile to Israel
B.) is also hostile to Iran/Hezbollah
A-B becomes A, the overall situation is better. Moreover, a more radical Islamist regime will receive less international support as nobody likes Al Qaeda-esque people whereas the international community will unfortunately tolerate Hamas/Hezbollah-esque groups. For instance, if a radical Islamist group was in power Russia would be far less likely to sell them those P-800 missiles.
People like to say Assad is this rational guy that Israel can make peace with, but in recent years he has demonstrated he has no interest in peace. Hes only escalated the situation.
He demonstrated no interest in peace, but also no interest in open war vs Israel.
A new leader may become more hostile to everybody: Lebanon, Hezballah, Israel, Iran, foreign embassies... He won't get new missiles from Russia, nor support from Iran, but he may attack Israel with Scuds right away. He won't live long in this scenario, but some of these guys wish to become martyrs.
I think with the overstepping of the Libya UN resolution by certain countries will make Russia use its veto when it comes to Syria.
Not that it will stop some countries from proceeding.
deja vu or reading off the same script
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-13197277
European countries have called for "strong measures" to halt repression in ___insert name of state here____, as its government steps up a campaign against peaceful protests.
In a joint statement, France and Italy urged the EU and UN to put pressure on ___insert name of state here ______ to end its crackdown.
The UK said it was working to send a "strong signal" to ____insert name of capital here_______. The US has said it is considering sanctions.
lets have resolution 1974!
followed by Operation --Cool Word--- Dawn.
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