Hell all I am new here. Anyway Joshua Landis's blog had an interesting post
A friend on Alawites:
I remain skeptical regarding the Alawite community’s plan B. in my view there is no plan A, no plan B and no plan C. to make things worse there is no Alawite community. the original community’s communal structures, its forms of leadership, its elites, its identity, its religion and its ******* to its own territory have all been gutted, to a large extent, by the regime. This explains in part why Alawites both loath Bashar and desperately cling to him. they have nowhere to go, no alternative, no ability to organize enough to produce one of their own. They are confused by their absorption into a state that has proved to be a fiction. they are offered no exit by an opposition of eradicators who whisper nice words and think murder. I believe — and was just in Damascus — that the regime will go down fighting, in the capital, which it will destroy in the process. that doesn’t preclude other struggles in other places, such as Latakia. of course, and as always, I hope I’m wrong.
The idea of an alawite homeland is not going to happen. The closest thing that could happen is if there is an alawite Hezbollah clone of milita that protects the alawites as Hezbollah protects the shias in southern Lebanon. Anyway I think the regime will go through a scorch earth policy with Damascus. Once Assad falls Damascus will be ruin. Post Assad Syria will be Lebanon on steroids.