Reply With Quote*sigh*Originally Posted by J.Noah ה
Decision by Netanyahu, Barak to strike Iran is almost final — Israel TV
http://www.timesofisrael.com/decisio...raeli-tv-says/
*sigh*
All the articles about it are annoying me already.
*sigh*
France reportedly draws up plans to evacuate 200,000 Franco-Israelis in case of war
Small ships to be used to carry French nationals offshore to safety; ‘standard procedures,’ says embassy in Tel Aviv
By TIMES OF ISRAEL STAFF August 10, 2012, 2:57 pm
Paris has reportedly drawn up emergency plans to evacuate French citizens from Israel in case of war.
The plan, reported by French news outlet La Tribune, would see 200,000 French nationals ferried in small boats to large warships stationed in the Mediterranean.
Diplomatic sources told the news outlet the plan was drawn up amid fears that Israel may come under attack from Iran or Hezbollah in the wake of an Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear sites.
Sources at the French Embassy in Tel Aviv told the paper that the plan was part of standard procedures and not out of the ordinary.
In 2006, France carried out a large scale evacuation in Lebanon during the Second Lebanon War, ferrying thousands of people to Cyprus, or large ships waiting offshore.
http://www.timesofisrael.com/france-...n-case-of-war/
Judging from history Israel won't let any "enemy nation" to have a NUKE. IMO cyber attacks/unconventional warfare can only go to a certain depth after that to have confirmation you need to do something directly. Both Israel and Iran knows this and are gearing up for this confrontation.
Now put yourself in the boots of Iran for a moment, despite all the bravado deep down you know you'd get a hiding so instead off being confrontational wouldn't it make more sense to back off for a bit and calm down.
Surely they must know that attacks on there nuclear programs would make significant setbacks and a couple of years later the Israelis would do it again.
Could be bait from Iran, maybe they want an attack and already have some kinda WMD waiting to deploy incase of a Israeli strike?
I dunno, but it's worth thinking about.
Does anyone know of Iran's Air Force and how many capable fighter jets they have? How well would they defend themselves against israeli air strikes?
They are not rational.In general they pick rational ways to reach irrational goals,but they don't rational enough for this.Besides not much gain here,Syria was hush about nuke for example.
1.They do not know.Too many possible scenarios.
2.They have nothing to lose.On any stage they can stop.
3.Its also only way islamic revolution can continue in Iran,so its also self preservation.
Not worth thinking,because it change nothing on strategic level.Iran with nuke unacceptable.
Deploying WMD in any case is good way to receive unconventional response from Israel.In ME unless you target leadership,they tend not to use WMD.(its not belong to some country after all,but to leader).
If ayatolla would be ready to use it in case of israeli attack(meaning willing to die),he will use it without attack.
Iran will defend itself with both air force and air defense. Iran have F-4, F-5, F-14 and MIG-29 fighters and they maintain them at home, so it is difficult to say how capable they are. On the other hand air defense is in large part domestically produced, so sanctions could not degrade their capabilities and Iranians are well educated to know how to properly use capabilities they have. Iran also invest in AD visual network, so Israeli EW escort will not have such big effect.
Anyway, Israel will have to count on big losses in case of attack.
1.Iran also didn't trained with different air forces,so level of personal training is unknown.
2.Technology of Iran is lacking,so even without degrading their capabilities,they still may be ineffective.
3.AD visual network don't mean anything without ability to use this info to actual missile fire.You must see target,get target coordinates in real time,then transfer it continuously to AD that can work with such feed.All of it not easy to say the least.
I could not say anything about quality of Iranian pilots and how well they are trained.
Your second point is not valid. Iranian ground air defense is a generation or two more advanced than air force. They have some modern and potent complexes like Tor-M1, Kasta-2 radar and Nebo-SVU radar as well as AA guns with modern Flycather FCS. They also got some modern radars and Crotale from China, which they also produce at home.
About third point, you could not build IADS in one day, but Iran build it for more than a decade and they learn a lot with Russians and with Chinese about air defense. Visual network is integrated in IADS, so AD batteries could use their data in real time.
They still wanted S-300,this give at least some estimate.And no,its not convincing what you are saying.
1.Russia have good AD systems(one of the best in world),but not IADS even above Russia,China is even less.
2.Both are hardly going to put a lot of effort in Iran's AD.Not on level at home.
3.Iranian IADS with integrated EO stations is fantasy beyond fantasy.IMO
Some Iranian domestic products:
http://www.ieimil.ir/content/bistati...ge-radar-bsr-1
http://www.ieimil.ir/content/air-sur...radar-tm-asr-1
http://www.ieimil.ir/content/categor...ars-technology
http://www.ieimil.ir/content/long-ra...ems-sadad-201t
Iran for more than a decade expect to be attacked from Israel or from US, so you could be sure they invest a lot in defense against such strong enemy. They know, that a battery alone could not do much, but integrated in IADS could.
Sadad-201T is such EO station, which is integrated in IADS.
http://thearkenstone.blogspot.com/20...1_archive.html
Well,Iran have radars yes,and?
IADS=integrated air defense system.I don't doubt that Iran have some components of such system of different quality.I do doubt they have a system.I strongly doubt iranian ability to engage medium/high altitude targets is up to date.I believe they will have at least some success in low altitude point defense.
"Israel will have to count on big losses in case of attack" is what i ultimately doubt.
At least that the impression i have from available info.
Do you think Iran is unable to build IADS in such a period of time, specially when they are knowing attack could happened any time? Believe me, Iran would not buy Avtobata ELINT complex if there isn't IADS it could work with. They could not buy a lot of new fighters, so they invest more in ground AD, but that doesn't mean they will hot use their fighters against higher altitude targets.
Avtobaza:
http://www.rusarmy.com/pvo/pvo_vvs/rtr_avtobaza.html
It can act as early warning(poor),theoretically,nothing more.For example give info that somewhere in that direction(on 150km it will be ~1.3km horizon and ~8km elevation) israeli radar working.Have little to do with IADS.Basically you use it to be able to keep AD radars silent till right moment.
They are welcome.I have my doubts about BVR with F-15,or WVR with any fighter with modern radar,HUD & python 5.
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