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Thread: Hypothetical Israel vs Iran campaign thread *READ FIRST POST*

  1. #46
    Senior Member Mordoror's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by xav View Post
    Yeah but then it would turn "global" no doubt...

    Don't forget:
    -Combined Task Force 152: http://combinedmaritimeforces.com/tag/ctf-152/
    -Port Zayed, UAE home of Marine Nationale's Indian Ocean fleet with permanent warships there (plus the Armée de l'Air base + FFL who relocated there from Djibouti)
    -Camp Virginia, Kuwait with thousands of soliders + equipment
    - Permanent US CVBG in the area

    And of course all the hundreds of advanced jets used by GCC countries (they are even more advanced than those used by the country of origin i.e F16blk60 and M2000-9) compared to the few 80ies era jets used by Iran
    I am sorry but if i was an unilateraly attacked country by foreign power(s) the fact to turn the conflict "global' would be the least of my worries
    In Iranina mind, they already are at war with the wahabi at least through proxies and diplomatic words (and they were at war through Irak hugely supported by KSA/UAE/Qatar in the 80s)
    Remember that it costed 1 millions casualties for the Iranian forces including between 60 and 80 000 gased soldiers
    In the collective mind this is not something that it is easilly forgivable and forgettable

    As for the advanced GCC jets, having the lastest fancy equipment doesn't mean they know how to use it. Pakistani merc pilots are not known to be very good
    On the other hand, US or French pilots in local aircrafts can do the trick

    Anyway nobody has answered my previous question that i think is something very important : How do you expect a country to react to the bombing of one of its nuclear facility that would release in the air radiochemical pollutants that would contaminate a several million inhabitants city, turning Tchernobyl and Fukushima into a kindergarden level spill. ?

  2. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ambassador View Post
    Like Universal Soldier said, if Israel could independently successfully attack Iran, it would already have been done.
    Really? Israel relies on the US as an ally in many regards.

    It should be politcally extremely difficult for them to attack Iran without US approval. I believe they would only do that as a last resort when they see no other chance to assure their survival.

  3. #48
    Senior Member Ambassador's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by icefrog View Post
    If Israel does a unilateral strike (regardless of result) w/o the US' approval should the US back them up or leave them to clean-up their own mess.
    The US and others will eventually have to get involved to clean the mess up for their own good. While the Israelis are gleeful with whatever 'success' they had achieved in the ordeal, the rest of the world will have entered into a serious economic damage control phase. What would be most sad is if IAF failed and we still had to enter into a serious economic damage control phase.

    Quote Originally Posted by Redox View Post
    Really? Israel relies on the US as an ally in many regards.

    It should be politcally extremely difficult for them to attack Iran without US approval. I believe they would only do that as a last resort when they see no other chance to assure their survival.
    That doesn't keep Israel from more comprehensively retaliating against weaker opponents when attacked, even with widespread political upheaval. Israel was very good at striking at less well defended nuclear sites despite US objection anyway.

    I wonder if Pentagon officials could predict beforehand that their subsidization of Israel's fighter fleet could potentially help Israel tread down a path that they didn't approve.
    Last edited by Ambassador; 12-27-2011 at 08:28 AM.

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    Senior Member themacedonian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Universal_Soldier View Post
    That scenarios is very far fetched my friend....very far fetched. likely hood of this happening is less than Zero.
    DF-3 missiles is out dated and them being in KSA is a rumor, also Pakistan arming DF-3 with their own warheads will take some time. Not to mention that the US Admin won't be amused. why go through all that when US Nuclear capability is within arms length???
    Ok so we are almost to the point. What if the Fox story is simply
    a public warning to the US administration (by KSA) to do something or they will do their shopping someplace else.

  5. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mordoror View Post
    Anyway nobody has answered my previous question that i think is something very important : How do you expect a country to react to the bombing of one of its nuclear facility that would release in the air radiochemical pollutants that would contaminate a several million inhabitants city, turning Tchernobyl and Fukushima into a kindergarden level spill. ?
    Full scale retaliation.. And it will be understandable internationally!

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    Senior Member JGXL836's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Redox View Post
    I believe they would only do that as a last resort when they see no other chance to assure their survival.
    Well said.

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    Quote Originally Posted by themacedonian View Post
    Ok so we are almost to the point. What if the Fox story is simply
    a public warning to the US administration (by KSA) to do something or they will do their shopping someplace else.
    Well nuclear proliferation in the middle east including to KSA (a country full of lunatics) is a scenario that everybody fears, so of course Fox brings this up. And it is not even that unrealistic given that Pakistan has the weapons but no money while KSA has tons of money. And Iran / KSA seem to be the main adversaries in the upcoming shia / sunni conflict.
    So yeah, there is A LOT at stake here.

  8. #53
    Senior Member Pandemonium's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by xav View Post
    Yeah but then it would turn "global" no doubt...

    Don't forget:
    -Combined Task Force 152: http://combinedmaritimeforces.com/tag/ctf-152/
    -Port Zayed, UAE home of Marine Nationale's Indian Ocean fleet with permanent warships there (plus the Armée de l'Air base + FFL who relocated there from Djibouti)
    -Camp Virginia, Kuwait with thousands of soliders + equipment
    - Permanent US CVBG in the area

    And of course all the hundreds of advanced jets used by GCC countries (they are even more advanced than those used by the country of origin i.e F16blk60 and M2000-9) compared to the few 80ies era jets used by Iran
    +operation Atalanta, nearby.
    I don't think something is going to happen, It looks to me that Israel risks at lot more if it would attack Iran, yes maybe Iran will get it's nuclear bomb in the near future, but they won't use it, they may threaten to use it, but they won't, maybe it is even for the best, history has learned us that a full-scale war between two atomic powers is very unlikely, it might even bring some stability in the Middle East.

  9. #54
    Senior Member themacedonian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Redox View Post
    Well nuclear proliferation in the middle east including to KSA (a country full of lunatics) is a scenario that everybody fears, so of course Fox brings this up. And it is not even that unrealistic given that Pakistan has the weapons but no money while KSA has tons of money. And Iran / KSA seem to be the main adversaries in the upcoming shia / sunni conflict.
    So yeah, there is A LOT at stake here.
    This is nothing new. See this report from 1981:
    http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc...f&AD=ADA106266

    Current wikipedia
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pakista...abia_relations

    Pakistan has been very very close to Saudi Arabia only flirting with China in the last decade
    http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/20...ia_riedel.aspx

    Shortly after Pakistan tested its nuclear weapons in 1998, Saudi Defense Minister Prince Sultan visited Pakistan and toured its nuclear and missile facilities outside Islamabad. Pakistan’s famous A.Q. Khan provided some of the color commentary for these unprecedented tours. At the time, U.S. officials expressed concern that the Pakistanis might be providing a nuclear weapon to the Saudis.

    Several experts reported after the trip that a secret agreement was concluded that would ensure Pakistan would provide Saudi Arabia with nuclear technology and a bomb if Saudi Arabia felt threatened by a third party nuclear program in the future. Both countries, of course, denied the stories. Assuming an agreement exists, it is likely the two have practiced the deployment of Pakistani warheads to Saudi Arabia for use with Saudi delivery systems.


    KSA technically provided a lot of the money to Pakistan.

  10. #55
    Senior Member Universals's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by themacedonian View Post
    Ok so we are almost to the point. What if the Fox story is simply
    a public warning to the US administration (by KSA) to do something or they will do their shopping someplace else.
    it's not....it's just pure BS. US have nuclear weapons in Turkey and Boomers are always within reach. KSA knows it has US ears when it comes to Iran given their importance to US admin.

  11. #56
    Senior Member themacedonian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Universal_Soldier View Post
    it's not....it's just pure BS. US have nuclear weapons in Turkey and Boomers are always within reach. KSA knows it has US ears when it comes to Iran given their importance to US admin.
    Maybe it is BS. But KSA and Iran having a war with nukes is different from US nuking Iran. It brings Russia into play. I think we are way of topic now.


    Israel can not act alone but a coalition of willing could be met with a similar coalition that might bring about major war.

  12. #57
    Senior Member Universals's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by themacedonian View Post
    Maybe it is BS. But KSA and Iran having a war with nukes is different from US nuking Iran. It brings Russia into play. I think we are way of topic now.
    yea... you are OT cos you are getting way ahead of yourself. How did you get to nuclear war b/w KSA and Iran from this topic?

    Israel can not act alone but a coalition of willing could be met with a similar coalition that might bring about major war.
    did you get that from fox news too? what similar coalition? unless you are talking about Hamas and Hezbollah. I do agree that it's very unlikely that Israel will act alone...the potential outcome is too uncertain for them and everybody else.

  13. #58
    winner, douchebag of the day C2H6O's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JGXL836 View Post
    For you and some officials it is uncertain. For us it is certain.
    Certain how? Only thing certain is that Iran will strike back. But if the target in Iran will be destroyed and what their destruction would mean for Iranian nuke program if such really exist, is far from certain. It may turn out that Israel would only be able to destroy targets that aren't critical for this program, while getting hit hard themselves in return.

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    Senior Member themacedonian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Universal_Soldier View Post
    yea... you are OT cos you are getting way ahead of yourself. How did you get to nuclear war b/w KSA and Iran from this topic?
    did you get that from fox news too? what similar coalition? unless you are talking about Hamas and Hezbollah. I do agree that it's very unlikely that Israel will act alone...the potential outcome is too uncertain for them and everybody else.
    my apologies.

    There will be coalitions that is for sure.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Universal_Soldier View Post
    yea... you are OT cos you are getting way ahead of yourself. How did you get to nuclear war b/w KSA and Iran from this topic?
    It is not that OT because Saudi fear of a nuclear Iran might push them to allow the Israelis overflight for an eventual attack on Iran, which we are discussing here.

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