Canada's welfare state starts to implode as demographic realities come home to roost

[Ought Six]

Or it might not collapse.

You dont have crystal ball any more than any of us do. So many things can change before 50's.

I have no problem with your opinion, as long as you remember to add the "i think ..".

It is much more than just opinion. The demographic trend is fact. The shrinking number of high-paid workers is fact. The system already running out of resources is fact. The constant rapid increase in medical costs is fact. This leads to an inevitable conclusion, if you just do the math; that no amount of tweaking is going to allow universal coverage to continue decades into the future. There would have to be some pretty massive changes to alter that equation, such as some gigantic new revenue stream appearing out of the blue. So far, the oil tar sands revenues have helped a little, but the system is in trouble now, even with Canada's new-found oil wealth. That right there speaks volumes about the size and scope of the problem. But nobody want to see it.

[Meatwad]

It is much more than just opinion. The demographic trend is fact. The shrinking number of high-paid workers is fact. The system already running out of resources is fact. The constant rapid increase in medical costs is fact. This leads to an inevitable conclusion, if you just do the math; that no amount of tweaking is going to allow universal coverage to continue decades into the future. There would have to be some pretty massive changes to alter that equation, such as some gigantic new revenue stream appearing out of the blue. So far, the oil tar sands revenues have helped a little, but the system is in trouble now, even with Canada's new-found oil wealth. That right there speaks volumes about the size and scope of the problem. But nobody want to see it.

Oh please please, stop bringing up the tar sands. It is a total non issue that has no impact on any of this at all. Alberta is going through a boom but there are so many other factors in play there than the tar sands. It's just a media buzzword really and people who know little or anything about it seem to think its some kind of energy gold mine thats going to save our way of life, its not going to do jack. Infact North Americas energy consumption and reliance on fossil fuels is going to be a much bigger issue in the future than Canada's healthcare.

Our tax revenue still covers our healthcare and it will in the future, as I said before you seem to think that those who rely on our coverage is going to keep growing and growing, that is not the way it works. We will have a demographic dropoff of the elderly once the baby boomers die off. Thats the reality of it. If it fails to fit in a balanced budget we will make cuts everywhere including military, education and healthcare but it will still be free to everyone. We've done all this before and I've gone over it with you before. This is a situation where quantity beats quality everytime.

Also try to refrain from using opinion articles by the National Post or canada.com as they have their conservative leanings and an obvious agenda.

[Pete031]

Also try to refrain from using opinion articles by the National Post or canada.com as they have their conservative leanings and an obvious agenda.

Try find a Canadian News Source that doesn't lean one way.

[Ought Six]

Oh please please, stop bringing up the tar sands. It is a total non issue that has no impact on any of this at all. Alberta is going through a boom but there are so many other factors in play there than the tar sands. It's just a media buzzword really and people who know little or anything about it seem to think its some kind of energy gold mine thats going to save our way of life, its not going to do jack. Infact North Americas energy consumption and reliance on fossil fuels is going to be a much bigger issue in the future than Canada's healthcare.

I merely pointed out that the Canadian government is getting increased revenues due to the oil tar sands. It is already 'doing jack'. As for it 'saving the Canadian way of life', that is your strawman. I never said anything remotely like that.
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Our tax revenue still covers our healthcare and it will in the futureas I said before....

The system is already in trouble now, and baby boomers are just starting to retire. But it is all okay, because you say so.
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you seem to think that those who rely on our coverage is going to keep growing and growing, that is not the way it works.

Yes, actually that is exactly what is happening, as anyone looking at the situation can see.
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We will have a demographic dropoff of the elderly once the baby boomers die off. Thats the reality of it.

Yep, you will. But the system will implode long before then.
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f it fails to fit in a balanced budget we will make cuts everywhere including military, education and healthcare but it will still be free to everyone. We've done all this before and I've gone over it with you before. This is a situation where quantity beats quality everytime.

You just refuse to do the math, just like all the other self-deluded deniers. Canada already spends over 80% of its government budget on social spending. Even if you took the other less than 20%, spending every penny on social spending, it would not be enough. Cutting bennies and upping the retirement age; still not even close. Jack up taxes? You already have high taxes. You cannot go much higher without harming your economy, resulting in negative gains overall. The combination of baby boomer demographics, skyrocketing medical costs and shrinking revenues is not going to increase the cost of your welfare state a few percent. It is going to at least double it in the next decade and a half. There is no way you can tax, cut or reform your way out of it; period.
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Also try to refrain from using opinion articles by the National Post or canada.com as they have their conservative leanings and an obvious agenda.

I quoted from an independent study, among other sources. A 'shoot the messenger' fallacy is not going to cut it here.

[Meatwad]

Try find a Canadian News Source that doesn't lean one way.

No doubt, I'm not saying there isn't. What I'm saying is they have an axe to grind on this issue or anything that goes against a neoconservative agenda. As does Ought Six with whatever his ideology is.

[NPFF]

Talked to my Canadian friends. So far they have not seen any implosions or explosions. Soon we will have crazy oil money and Obama will kiss OUR ruler's hand

[PEMM]

EDIT: Never mind actually.

[HellToupee]

www.economist.com/node/4085945?Story_ID=4085945

Atleast its more sustainable than certian other systems.

[Ought Six]

www.economist.com/node/4085945?Story_ID=4085945

Atleast its more sustainable than certian other systems.

As I already pointed out, much of the 'spending' in the American system is really just tax breaks, not cash outlays. That is not the case in other nations, and that skews the relative percentages. But none of these systems will be sustainable, so the differences are not very important.

[HellToupee]

A tax credit costs just like a subsidy would plus its not like the US is the only nation in the world employing them all these systems have different costs some burdened with the cost of extending services to all their citizens for example. As for sustainability what system is sustainable? Our entire economies,population growth and energy usage all falls under unsustainable, and like all those a system that can provide what is provided now yet some how is sustainable has never existed.

[Ought Six]

A tax credit costs just like a subsidy would....

I said tax breaks, not tax credits. Being able to deduct $x off of your taxable income is in no way the same as an $x tax credit. The former may or may not lower the amount of tax you actually pay a little. The latter is deducted, dollar for dollar, from the amount of tax you pay.
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.... plus its not like the US is the only nation in the world employing them

Name the other nations that offer tax breaks for healthcare.
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all these systems have different costs some burdened with the cost of extending services to all their citizens for example.

Not sure what your point is here.
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As for sustainability what system is sustainable?

Countries with stable demographics, low inflation and limited government generally have sustainable systems. Nations where their politicians grant ever-growing benefits to demographically aging populations do not.
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Our entire economies,population growth and energy usage all falls under unsustainable, and like all those a system that can provide what is provided now yet some how is sustainable has never existed.

I am not quite sure what that sentence means.

[HellToupee]

I said tax breaks, not tax credits. Being able to deduct $x off of your taxable income is in no way the same as an $x tax credit. The former may or may not lower the amount of tax you actually pay a little. The latter is deducted, dollar for dollar, from the amount of tax you pay.

A tax credit is a tax break, it is a reduction or refund in the amount of taxes to pay, what you are mistaking for a tax credit is a tax deduction which is another form of tax break. Tax break is a general term.

----------Name the other nations that offer tax breaks for healthcare.

Canada is one of them.

----------Not sure what your point is here.

Your excusing US stats with "tax breaks", as if the systems compared against are carbon copies of each other and don't have their own additional costs measured, like the cost of universal coverage for example.

----------Countries with stable demographics, low inflation and limited government generally have sustainable systems. Nations where their politicians grant ever-growing benefits to demographically aging populations do not.

Which countries would these be?

----------I am not quite sure what that sentence means.

Why its quite simple, if you want to talk sustainable healthcare you have to first talk sustainable economy healtcare public or private is only as sustianable as the economy, economies require growth aka your demographic problem when the population growth slows, growth itself is unsustainable.

[Breakfast in Vegas]

The global economy crisis I say.
The current U.S healthcare system is better? Please give me a break.
Free healthcare should be mandatory in any western nation. Period

I pay about $800/month for my free German healthcare.

[Popsiq]

The global economy crisis I say. The current U.S healthcare system is better? Please give me a break. Free healthcare should be mandatory in any western nation. Period

There is no such thing as 'free' health care. There is socialized health care. It's paid for by all taxpayers with an emphasis on employers (as a benefit for workers) For anybody who has to pay a hospital bill in any civilized country on earth that's a lot better than selling a couple of kids into bondage, begging for charity or just 'skipping the medecine' and easing the population crisis. Some people really don't like line-ups or having to wait for an operation (although my B-in-law had his quadruple bypass one day after he complained to his doctor), I had to wait a month for an aortic aneurism patch, but there's nothing to stop them mortgaging the house and going to a more 'reasonable' place where money talks. Rich guys do that all the time. Maybe that's why they think its so unfair that they have to 'pay for somebody else'. There are doctors who think they could make a lot more collecting bits of jewelry and garden vegetables in return for treatment. They, too, are welcome to go where they'll be more justly rewarded. I wouldn't let any 'expat' or non-taxpayer into a Canadian hospital 'free'. Canadians aren't as stupid as our politicos. Our medicare plan is best thing we've done as a nation. I think we're going to keep it. It sure beats getting one medical bill. With all due respect, given the choice, I think most Canadians would forgo the military budget.

[Ought Six]

A tax credit is a tax break, it is a reduction or refund in the amount of taxes to pay, what you are mistaking for a tax credit is a tax deduction which is another form of tax break.

The American system gives you lots of deductions, which the false accounting we see in comparisons like the Wikipedia one counts as if they were tax credits.
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Tax break is a general term.

Whatever.
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Canada is one of them.Your excusing US stats with "tax breaks", as if the systems compared against are carbon copies of each other....

The point that I was making is precisely the opposite of what you are claiming; that they are not carbon copies of each other, and thus cannot be directly compared with any accuracy.
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.... and don't have their own additional costs measured, like the cost of universal coverage for example.

Not a clue what you are trying to say here.
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Which countries would these be?

One example is Panama, which I have been investigating as a possible retirement location. There are many others.
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Why its quite simple, if you want to talk sustainable healthcare you have to first talk sustainable economy healtcare public or private is only as sustianable as the economy, economies require growth aka your demographic problem when the population growth slows, growth itself is unsustainable.

Growth is not required. A stable system with a stable demographic and stable costs is not in danger of collapsing. >*obvious*<