North Korea Missle Test Thread

[ISNJH]

Japan issues order to SDF to shoot down rocket if it is in danger of landing on Japan's territory!
http://www.cnn.com/2012/03/30/world/...-korea-rocket/

[Reditalianwolf]

I've not read all the replies however...
I think that (after reading some speculations/intepretations/questions in some articles online), the desire of the North Korea to put a satellite in orbite it's quiet genuine.
They are probably really trying for it, and there is also a pretty clear propaganda reason... sort of Space Race, considering that (if i'm correct) both NK and SK tried to launch a satellite and all the tests failed (both NK and SK)
However it's obvious that NK want try to obtain more results with a single action: try to launch a satellite, if they fail they however show their long-distance rockets ability.
The launch of 2009 of the Unha-2 rocket, showed that: they failed to launch a satellite, but they managed to make clear that their unintercepted best missiles can hit every location of both South Korea AND Japan...

However, if they've a bit of luck the NK can do it... Iranian managed to put satellites in orbit, and sharing the same missile technology the NK can probably do the same if in the last 3 years Iranian and North Koreans worked a bit more together...

[ISNJH]

Japan to deploy aircraft to protect Aegis ships in the Sea of Japan.
http://alert5.com/2012/03/31/f-15js-...medium=twitter

[ISNJH]

I would have though the Aegis ships had good defense systems for engaging incoming threats.. could these aircraft be perhaps loaded out with ordinances to strike at shore sites in North Korea if they retaliated by launching on Japan for intercepting the rocket when launched.

[ISNJH]

http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/T120330006164.htm

never mind, its because when tracking the missile launch the radars will be focused on the missile and the F-15 will provide over-watch of the ships.

One thing is for sure this is turning into a big deployment operation for Japan and they are putting a lot of effort into making sure they dont run into the problems they had back in 2009 when trying to monitor and track the last launch.

[highdiver_2000]

All sorts of radar will be turned on. This is going to turn into a SIGINT bonanza.

[ISNJH]

Also with both sides deploying so many assets I worry the North may think the West is preparing a preemptive strike on the North and the North over reacts in the coming days and does something stupid.

[Reditalianwolf]

Also with both sides deploying so many assets I worry the North may think the West is preparing a preemptive strike on the North and the North over reacts in the coming days and does something stupid.

I'm a bit worried... the press of my country said today that Japan want "shot down the rocket" if it came too much close them.
I'm not totally sure about the reliability of our press: but in the end... there is a "risk" that Japan can really shot down the entire rocket (with the risk of NK going mad and starting to fire some shells against SK) or they will try to just shot dow some falling stages?
To be honest this entire situation it's a bit worrying ... considering that the NK would never retreat from their plan, i'm a bit nervous about the "hardline" of Western countries...
It's like a "dog that chase his tail".... Japan, SK, Usa, Australia... they all should know that NK is not going to stop something if they say "Hey, don't do it!"...
The best solution could be try to ignore it, (after all... there is not a real "present threat" for a stage falling in water,) BUT still giving some news about the press... after all NK want that ... to have attention for having a stronger position in the agreements and negotiations.

[ISNJH]

I'm a bit worried... the press of my country said today that Japan want "shot down the rocket" if it came too much close them.
I'm not totally sure about the reliability of our press: but in the end... there is a "risk" that Japan can really shot down the entire rocket (with the risk of NK going mad and starting to fire some shells against SK) or they will try to just shot dow some falling stages?
To be honest this entire situation it's a bit worrying ... considering that the NK would never retreat from their plan, i'm a bit nervous about the "hardline" of Western countries...
It's like a "dog that chase his tail".... Japan, SK, Usa, Australia... they all should know that NK is not going to stop something if they say "Hey, don't do it!"...
The best solution could be try to ignore it, (after all... there is not a real "present threat" for a stage falling in water,) BUT still giving some news about the press... after all NK want that ... to have attention for having a stronger position in the agreements and negotiations.

For to many years the west and countries in the region have been asking and begging the North to not do this and not do that and the North has turned its back and carried on. The only way to make the North stop and listen is for them to see that their provocations will no longer be allowed... For many years it was thought that should the South and North Korea exchange artillery exchanges resulting in deaths on both side it would be the breaking out of total war. But the shelling of the boarder island and the South return mass shelling of the North's Artillery units showed that limited strike capability would not push the North to open war.. Also Japan has the right to raise issue with rockets being fired through their airspace and say no more free pass through their air space.

[Reditalianwolf]

For to many years the west and countries in the region have been asking and begging the North to not do this and not do that and the North has turned its back and carried on. The only way to make the North stop and listen is for them to see that their provocations will no longer be allowed... For many years it was thought that should the South and North Korea exchange artillery exchanges resulting in deaths on both side it would be the breaking out of total war. But the shelling of the boarder island and the South return mass shelling of the North's Artillery units showed that limited strike capability would not push the North to open war.. Also Japan has the right to raise issue with rockets being fired through their airspace and say no more free pass through their air space.

I don't think that's the best line... i don't know... sometimes i doubt that Western countries really understand then way of think of North Korea. Years ago there was an improvement of the NK / SK relationships. About the last shelling accident, it could be said that one of the points because of there was no reactions was the actual failure of the South Korean reaction. It's a bit hard to take all what SK press say as "pure true"... and all the data about losses/damages for NK came from there or supposed defectos. But if you read the KPA study articles (they are amazing) that are western-made you can see how actually SK didn't hit the rocket launchers, causing actually insignificant damage.
That's probably why the NK didn't bombed again and decided that this was enaugh. (recently an KCNA video showed also the commander of the unit... regretting of not having turned Inchon into a sea of fire <.<, but that's propaganda..)

About what's happening today.. i think it's a bit diffirent... that's also a bit different comparing to the 2009, this time there was more advise from NK. And in the end i'm sure that NK don't want create a provocation or something similar. They are pretty much sure what they want to do.
I had the occasion to talk with an NK counsul in my country and i had the lmpression to talk with a smarter and less indoctrinated then i imagined.
But when i asked about his opinion about the Cheonan he was so quick to thrill himself without betraying himself and explain me how "It was all an american and south korean mess, with an american submarine siking the Cheonan and another american submarine (or the same one) sinking in the same accident "
To be honest it was a perfect theme for a submarine war movie XD

[ISNJH]

Some of the most recent reports on the casualties from the South shelling of the North Korean sides have come from DPRK sources in talks with China and from DPRK statements to the Chinese it seems the South did achieve a high hit to kill rate on the artillery units fired at and the crews were demoralized from the attack and the North has been doing catchup ever since to restore fighting confidence.

If anything the failing of relations between the two countries falls on the North, the only reason the South cut off aid was when it came out the North had been secretly running and building their Nuclear program even when the US and South had agreements for a lot of aid and supplies to not build nuclear weapons. The South cut off of aid was logical esp since the South was also dealing with its own economic problems and could not afford to just be giving the North aid with no true return. But when the South cut off the aid the North labeled this action as an aggressive war action against their great country.

Prior to the shelling of the boarder Islands there was also Naval skirmishes that the North initiated.


If Japan shoots the rocket down I think North Korea if anything will rattle sabers but China is not going to let North Korea start a major regional war in the area and will apply pressure on Kim to hold back.


During the dark ages after the initial viking invasions there started the policy of Danegeld or paying of Vikings not to attack at first this worked but then more and more Viking lords realized how profitable this was and the policy became to expensive to maintain.. This basically is what the Sunshine policy in the South Korea was since they thought if providing food and aid would keep the peace the North would change but the only thing it did was ensured that the North could continue on with their Nuclear and missile programs..

[Reditalianwolf]

Some of the most recent reports on the casualties from the South shelling of the North Korean sides have come from DPRK sources in talks with China and from DPRK statements to the Chinese it seems the South did achieve a high hit to kill rate on the artillery units fired at and the crews were demoralized from the attack and the North has been doing catchup ever since to restore fighting confidence.

To be honest i've read the opposite, an article of Chosen Ilbo reported that "A North Korean defector who had served in an artillery battery, however, stated that the South had likely failed to destroy the North Korean artillery batteries due to its slow response".
And in the end i'm a bit skeptical about what it's claimed by some journals in SK mainly because it seemed to me that they wanted to make it look the best way possible.
And playing the "defector said this" card, it's a bit "easy" to me <.<
In the end i find more affidable a military analysis of an un-political source as KPA journal (that despite the name it's far from being pro-NK) that showed satellite imagine of the NK MLRs and the SK shells too far from them to cause significant damage.

Prior to the shelling of the boarder Islands there was also Naval skirmishes that the North initiated.

Well...we have to remember that the NLL it's a disputed maritime boundary: and NK want that water because there is more fishing there. For what i've read they had never accepted that line, so their position it's a bit stronger then usual (if both NK and SK were a bit more reasonable, they could find a limited agreement <.<
But that will means... less naval battle, and i'm quiet thrilled to see the new SK patrol boats in action and the possible NK reply XD (In another topic i was AMAZED to see a new NK patrol boat with what seemed to be an iranian-made 76mm gun o.o (the ones similar to the Oto/Melara done in my country) )

If Japan shoots the rocket down I think North Korea if anything will rattle sabers but China is not going to let North Korea start a major regional war in the area and will apply pressure on Kim to hold back.

I agree.. to be honest, even if Japan shot down some debris or stages, i don't think that NK will denounce it...
Or if they will do, they will just make some more video of angry soldiers in youtube sworning to disembowel the Japanese Emperor. (i've seen some NK officers shouting that to SK... first time i've seen in TV someone threathing of "disembowel" a politicians of another country XD)

This basically is what the Sunshine policy in the South Korea was since they thought if providing food and aid would keep the peace the North would change but the only thing it did was ensured that the North could continue on with their Nuclear and missile programs..

That's true but... now i expected to see a sort of attempt from the SK to more dialogue.
After all we (should) agree that the power of Kim Jong Un is less strong then his father had... there are other men behind him, they can be more strong now, and that could led a different situation...

[ISNJH]

To be honest i've read the opposite, an article of Chosen Ilbo reported that "A North Korean defector who had served in an artillery battery, however, stated that the South had likely failed to destroy the North Korean artillery batteries due to its slow response".
And in the end i'm a bit skeptical about what it's claimed by some journals in SK mainly because it seemed to me that they wanted to make it look the best way possible.
And playing the "defector said this" card, it's a bit "easy" to me <.<
In the end i find more affidable a military analysis of an un-political source as KPA journal (that despite the name it's far from being pro-NK) that showed satellite imagine of the NK MLRs and the SK shells too far from them to cause significant damage.


Well...we have to remember that the NLL it's a disputed maritime boundary: and NK want that water because there is more fishing there. For what i've read they had never accepted that line, so their position it's a bit stronger then usual (if both NK and SK were a bit more reasonable, they could find a limited agreement <.<
But that will means... less naval battle, and i'm quiet thrilled to see the new SK patrol boats in action and the possible NK reply XD (In another topic i was AMAZED to see a new NK patrol boat with what seemed to be an iranian-made 76mm gun o.o (the ones similar to the Oto/Melara done in my country) )


I agree.. to be honest, even if Japan shot down some debris or stages, i don't think that NK will denounce it...
Or if they will do, they will just make some more video of angry soldiers in youtube sworning to disembowel the Japanese Emperor. (i've seen some NK officers shouting that to SK... first time i've seen in TV someone threathing of "disembowel" a politicians of another country XD)


That's true but... now i expected to see a sort of attempt from the SK to more dialogue.
After all we (should) agree that the power of Kim Jong Un is less strong then his father had... there are other men behind him, they can be more strong now, and that could led a different situation...

Kim Jong Un position is as you say is weak and he has to do whatever he can to appease the military leadership to remain in control. For any future negotiations to succeed the military has to be shown that any future provocations by the North will be harshly dealt with so that provocations become to costly for the North's military to want to take them.

[zuilon2000]

http://www.cnmilitary.info/north-kor...es-on-standby/

the Taiwan Strait April 1, according to the United Evening News reported, the Taiwan military executives confirmed April 12 against North Korea to launch satellites on behalf of long-range missiles, ballistic neighbor through the waters off eastern Taiwan, the Taiwan authorities “Defense Ministry” secret order missile headquarters, expand the Patriot III missiles and Tien Kung III anti-missile system readiness preparation, and the exercise status, if known next week, the North Korean missile sites into the launch to mobilize the state and the Taiwan side to the two missile systems will also be stationed in the eastern part of Taiwan field positions standby to intercept. If the Korean Peninsula situation continues to rise, this will be the “red dot” task two bombs for the first time the capture intrusion into airspace.
This is the military for the first time publicly confirmed that the Patriot III missiles, combat ready, you can perform combat missions in Taiwan.

[ISNJH]

If true then that effectively puts in effect a air cap line going across from Taiwan to Japan with air defense assets deployed and US assets backing up..