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Thread: IDF officials: Missile attack on Israel would produce less than 300 casualties

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    Default IDF officials: Missile attack on Israel would produce less than 300 casualties

    [*******#222222]Senior defense official presents Israeli cabinet with assessment of number of people dead should Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, and Hamas launch missiles at Israel; number is far lower than the one mentioned previously by Defense Minister Barak.[/COLOR]


    By [*******#434141]Barak Ravid[/COLOR]

    Israel Defense Forces officials told cabinet ministers on Monday that should Israel undergo a coordinated missile attack, there would be less than 300 Israeli casualties.

    The number was mentioned by IDF officials during a discussion in Israel's security-diplomatic cabinet, Channel 10 reported on Monday, and is far lower than the number mentioned previously by Defense Minister Ehud Barak, who reportedly said that a maximum of 500 Israelis would die in such an attack.

    During the meeting, a senior official in the Israel Air Force told the cabinet ministers that in the event of a coordinated missile attack on Israel's home front, missiles and rockets would be fired at Israel by the Syrian army, Hezbollah in Lebanon, terror organizations in Gaza, and most probably by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards as well.

    According to one of the cabinet ministers, the IAF believes that for three weeks, thousands of missiles and rockets would land in Israel, and the number of people dead would reach 300, as well as hundreds of people wounded and severe damage to property and infrastructure.

    The officer who presented the data before the ministers noted that the scenario is an assessment based on the situation in 2012, but could change in the future.

    Despite that the subject of the discussion was not the possibility of war with Iran, such a coordinated terror attack on Israel is expected mostly in the event of an Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear facilities. The defense establishment is split regarding the dimensions of an Iranian attack.

    Another argument surrounds the question whether Syria, Hezbollah, and Hamas would join Iran and launch missiles toward Israel. According to some of the assessments in the intelligence community, the Iranian response would include aid from Hezbollah, Syria, and Hamas, but other assessments suggest that these actors would be deterred by the Israeli retaliation against them and would not rush to aid Iran.

    Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak believe that the Iranian response to an attack on its nuclear facilities would not necessarily bring about a coordinated attack on Israel. They both emphasize that in any case, the scenario in which Iran would have a nuclear bomb would be much more dangerous.

    http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomac...lties-1.422219

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    Israel has one of the world's best civil defense oragnizations.

    Just about everyone with prior military training has a working knowledge of first aid.

    If there's any missile attack, any casualties and deaths will be mitigated by ordinary Israelis and emergency services.

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    With systems like Iron dome intercepting some of the rockets that [*******#222222]Hezbollah and Hamas could fire and only shooting the ones that will land on population centers [/COLOR]Israel has good chance of weathering these threats, the main threat will come from Iran's long range ballistic missiles..

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    I totally agree that a missile attack won't produce many civilian casualties. But is the number of civilian casualties the most important factor for Iran or Hezbollah? The article talks about a missile attack of short duration, but what will happen if Hezbollah decides to fire every day 50 rockets at Israel for 2 years? How will the Israeli civilians function? This will not produce many casualties but it will kill them mentally.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Zuttermans View Post
    I totally agree that a missile attack won't produce many civilian casualties. But is the number of civilian casualties the most important factor for Iran or Hezbollah? The article talks about a missile attack of short duration, but what will happen if Hezbollah decides to fire every day 50 rockets at Israel for 2 years? How will the Israeli civilians function? This will not produce many casualties but it will kill them mentally.
    Lebanon couldn't sustain 50 rockets a day for 2 years and domestic considerations combined with the sheer scale of fighting going would force Hezbollah to seek an end to fighting. If Hezbollah fires even 1 salvo of 50 rockets, Lebanon will go up in smoke. The situation in the North is far more serious and tense then in the South and less can be "allowed".

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    Quote Originally Posted by ISNJH View Post
    With systems like Iron dome intercepting some of the rockets that [*******#222222]Hezbollah and Hamas could fire and only shooting the ones that will land on population centers [/COLOR]Israel has good chance of weathering these threats, the main threat will come from Iran's long range ballistic missiles..
    [/FONT]
    For Iran's BMs there are Arrow defenses.

    Quote Originally Posted by Zuttermans View Post
    I totally agree that a missile attack won't produce many civilian casualties. But is the number of civilian casualties the most important factor for Iran or Hezbollah? The article talks about a missile attack of short duration, but what will happen if Hezbollah decides to fire every day 50 rockets at Israel for 2 years? How will the Israeli civilians function? This will not produce many casualties but it will kill them mentally.
    If Hez fires 50 rockets the the retaliation may make it unwilling to resume again.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Zuttermans View Post
    This will not produce many casualties but it will kill them mentally.
    Don't underestimate the Israelis.
    They are known for their resiliancy no matter the circumstances.

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    There would be no missiles if the IDF use a EMP attack.

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    It would depend on the guidance systems of the missiles, an advanced ballistic missile might be affected but smaller less advanced missiles would not be affected.

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    The problem aren't the short range rockets(like the Grad that carry a very small warhead)that Iron Dome intercepts,the problem are the heavy missiles like M-600(that carry warheads weighing around 250-500KG). In July/August the David's Sling system will undergo her first intercept test,but it will take time until she will be operational.
    Last edited by MUSHROOM123; 04-02-2012 at 10:01 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ISNJH View Post
    It would depend on the guidance systems of the missiles, an advanced ballistic missile might be affected but smaller less advanced missiles would not be affected.
    Unless the missile is sporting vacuum tubes not to mention the energy required to launch missile the only way they are flying is if they are launched by catapult

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    Does this data fall under junk science category? Trying to predict an outcome in an uncontrolled, chaotic environment is nothing but fantasy.

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    Quote Originally Posted by JJC View Post
    Does this data fall under junk science category? Trying to predict an outcome in an uncontrolled, chaotic environment is nothing but fantasy.

    Offcourse ..consider if the article surfaced on another site .. the theory and claims would be laughed at .. and ridiculed but because of the said source .. some folk will lap up any amout of surreal propaganda BS

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    Quote Originally Posted by timetraveller View Post
    Offcourse ..consider if the article surfaced on another site .. the theory and claims would be laughed at .. and ridiculed but because of the said source .. some folk will lap up any amout of surreal propaganda BS
    It's from Haaretz, you'd be surprised by how many articles you might like from them between eating the paint chips off the floor.

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    I found this strangely appropriate...
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