GGK is Malaysian so yeah he is pretty close.
China is pushing hard now while the Philippines and Vietnam are still relatively weak militarily and divided politically. They want to get her position established and consolidated in the disputed islands before those nations build up their military power and enter into a cooperative military alliance.
Yes exactly.Originally Posted by junglejim
I would like to hear from you locals to the area, what you perception of the issue is. Getting the “word from the street” can give you good insight in the characteristics of the debate. Understanding local feelings usually helps in trying to frame and understand contributing factors to conflicts.
For instance how do you
1.See this realistically turning out and evolving
2.How populist is the debate in media (lots of war trumpets or not)
3. What arguments are your officials trying to present
4.What do you feel is the other sides best argument
Etc etc
These things are interesting (for me) and give further insight in to the conflict.
It is quite weird for me that Philippine chooses this is the correct time for her to challenge Chinese power. Actually, she must prepare herself for long time to have at least some adequate military hardwares both the ships and aircraft.
Look at what Philippine has now, the leverage is on Chinese side.
Vietnam, actually, is much different in her strategy. She has concentrated almost her budget to modernize naval and aerial capability. Su30 of Vietnam is specialized for naval purpose. Vietnam is also acquiring many missile boats, submarines and frigates and China knows, she will be suffered if she tries to use power.
US is the only one who Philippine can lean but I don't think US will intervene.
i can only give insight as a malaysian though..
that said, the philipines are not the only nation provoked by the chinese so called fisheries administration vessels. 4,600-tonne Yuzheng 311 enter malaysian water in April 2010 almost being shot by malaysian navy ship... this same vessel also being confronted by Vietnamese costguard... plus the MV Fu Yuan 123 incident where they being shot by KRI Tanjung Dalpele.
they are probing asean navy reaction with these ship serve to strengthen China’s extensive maritime claims and make no mistake they are well armed.
1.Asean nation who have claims will not back out, and the chinese cant assert assert its sovereignty claims on the island already manned by asean naval forces.
2.The populist mostly prefer diplomatic solution, a joint effort to developed spratly
3.The officials learn the hardway the value of à titre de souverain. Malaysian learn it from Pedra Branca and the Indonesian Learn it from the Sipadan and Ligitan Island dispute... à titre de souverain are their strategy for now.
4. Again refering the Pedra Branca issues à titre de souverain are the best argument...
Philippines is not challenging Chinese power. They wanted to arrest poachers, the Chinese prevented them, then the Chinese escalated things by sending more ships and keeps on trying to provoke them to fire the first shot. From the beginning, the Phils. did not to escalate things w/c is why only 2 ships are in there and still engaging the Chinese thru diplomatic means.
Whatever you've read from Chicoms are the opposite of what is happening. They have a knack to say the opposite and/or exaggerate things.
If you want weird, try reading what Chicoms are saying from Sino forums and a few Chicom trolls here.
Last edited by icefrog; 05-11-2012 at 05:07 AM.
I'll answer your points by the number:
1. Realistically both sides will calm down and slowly de escalate the situation like before. However this time we are not too sure, I think China is pushing hard to see the Philippines resolve, so far nobody has ships that can shoot down each other in the area. So a safe pissing match is going on, China using its naval capability, while the Philippines its global sympathy card. Both sides playing with what they got.
2. The issue in the Philippines is well talked about with tri media soundbites and Senators actually calling on accelerating hardware purchases and re-eveluating alliances. Like I said, for the first time, there is a lot of talk of the incident in FB instead of the NBA playoffs... its that serious here. We have rallies being set and our communist rebels for the first time is rallying against China. So far more of a fear of a skirmish rather than all out war.
3. We are on the right and based on international laws its a clear winner and that is why China resorts to bullying.
4. Their big ass Navy.
The day is almost over. Protests were peaceful.
China did not like it and said the protests will hurt bilateral relations: http://www.philstar.com/nation/artic...ticleid=805972
They should start learning that the Gov't does not control protests here nor try to control the media unlike what they do. People are free to go to the streets and protest.
For your information, I am a Vietnamese, and I know exactly what is going on, and what Chicoms think. The weird thing for me is that, this kind of provocation is not the first time. However, this is the first time Philippine reacts like this. Philippine has not prepared for any escalating with China. Philippine should by some frigates and airplanes first.
Actually, based on the impression I got from the Filipino posters here, ( please correct me if i'm wrong ) although they are weak militarily against china ( who isn't in the region right? ) they are PREPARED to face what china can throw at them. In fact, ( I know this is sarcastic ) they want china to "demolish" their military hardware so that the corrupt politicians ( hey all pols are corrupt ) are gonna have a fire lit up their asses and finally give the armed forces the capability they need.
So yeah, they are getting the frigates and planes NOW because of this "crisis"
As I told my friend in the Armed Forces "I wouldn't be surprised if a PLA-N General and PN General is drinking beer somewhere congratulating each other for a job well done, justifying the expenditure for the Chinese Navy and bolstering the Philippine Navy's modernization."
What most people dont understand is, we as an Island nation, kind off have the same attitude the US had before WW1... we have no enemies really and the threats inside can easily be contained. So the external defense aspect was neglected, build roads not ships. Business centers not bases, type of thing. I guess we are now just paying our dues, by catching up.
That's the only way the local politicians will release funds and stop being stingy on defense procurements. Like I said before several pages ago the Phils. is exploiting this stand-off and getting something in-return. The Chicoms does not know it but their bullying is actually helping the Phil. Armed forces and DND to finally get their message across to local politicians. It's working too. Now, will the Chinese actually fire the first shot and try to resolve the stand-off thru violence like they are hinting recently?? If they haven't noticed yet, they are loosing the PR battle. Phils. is fully exploiting all forms of media too w/c the Vietnamese never did when the massacre happened.
I hope Meoram now gets it why Phils. is standing ground but at the same time going the diplomatic route.
Thanks, now I understand. You are correct, Philippine needs to do something to make her people realize their threat and to modernize their naval capability.
In our country, everybody knows what our threat, our true rival is, and we have already prepared for years for it.
See, we never had that border. So we were always more laid back than the rest. Vietnam has China, Thailand has Cambodia, Singapore has Malaysia, Indonesia has Australia and Malaysia, Soko has best Korea. Philippines has jungle rot, annoying Korean tourists, the occassional Belgian stealing our kids and ****ing typhoons... not really something one can use to justify Su-33's now.
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