Sarkozy is proposing 3 debates.
The Hollande side seems to reject any more than one. Maybe a good tactic from Sarkozy.
Sarkozy is proposing 3 debates.
The Hollande side seems to reject any more than one. Maybe a good tactic from Sarkozy.
I think he'll be content to rack up the Centrist and extreme-left voters while being vocal about the UMP's attempt to get the FN votes.
He will not (as said previously it is regular to have 50% of FN voters coming back to the right, 25% to the left and 25% abstaining)
He will have to pander the far left a bit though
And the center too
The one who direly needs the whole bunch of far right votes is the outsider aka N.S now
As well as some center votes too
edit : AF beat me on this one
I do think it is a sound tactic from Hollande. Porcinet knows that calling Sarkozy names (pardon the pun) will pretty much kill his entourage. The TF1 debate with Peillon and Raffarin went south very quickly. The Socialist have Sarkozy cornered and beaten, no need to help him out by letting him talk. They will probably have a debate on monday 30 April and that will be it.
Since the 2nd round is a whole new game, Hollande doesn't even have to court the extreme-left very actively. He'll get most of their votes by default (something Sarkozy cannot do with the FN to the same extent). If he wins the Centre, then it's a shoo-in I guess. Oh well. Won't stop me from putting my two cents in the little blue envelope in May and kick voting participation up a notch!
Indeed, and they won't fail to point it out. But well, voters do not care. At any rate, the debate can shift 1-2% of votes according to conventional political wisdom.
The Left is at its 2002 level, but this time less fragmented and with a candidate running for a second term. It remains to be seen wheter as an incumbent, Sarkozy is as discredited as Chirac was at the time. In 2002, had Jospin made it to the 2nd round, all polls showed he would have a clear win, so discredited was Chirac... On one hand Sarkozy can, IMO, count on a more fervent support from a part of the electorate. On the other hand, his rejection level is considerably higher.