However, those people who voted for Le Pen should be more inclined to vote for Sarko in the second round?
You cannot say. A good chunk of them are from popular areas. Overall MLP got them good, with a combative tone. Not really her dad, not really democratic either. I expect a 1/3 PS, 2/3 UMP.
AF: Not really, I think while the *new* FN hates Sarkozy, they cannot bear to see their votes elect a Socialist. One might also beware of the populist votes. Protesting against the System is one thing. Hating the current President is another.
Over here analysts say Sarkozy has little chances to attract as many voters from the Far Right as Hollande is expected to mobilize from the Left. Be advised, Froggies. Every people will have the government it deserves.