French Presidential election 2012 THREAD

[KoTeMoRe]

What allows you to call him Porcinet?

Because he is a French human being. Freedom of speech and all that.

[Nansouty]

Hommande 28%
Sarkozy 25%
Le Pen 20 %
Mélenchon 11%
Bayrou 9%
Joly 2%

Give or take a few decimals, that's about it gentlemen. Hollande has a very strong probability of winning the 2nd round.

[Atlantic Friend]

Fvck, Porcinet is leading. 19% for the MLP?

Bayrou will decide of the fate of Sarkozy.

Bayrou this time only weighs 8% - a steep fall from his 2007 score. Sarkozy'll have to "spread wide" and try to attract Centrists as well as Front National voters, if he is to be elected.

[Breakfast in Vegas]

The 2nd round is automatic between Hollande and Sarkozy. The French system aims at having one candidate getting over 50% of the votes.

OK, thanks.

[Soulman]

If the high FN vote goes to Sarko on second round, he could be reelected.

[Atlantic Friend]

LCI stats : Hollande 28.6%, Sarkozy 27.0%, Le Pen 19.0%, Mélenchon 10.8%, Bayrou 8.9%, Joly 2.1%, Dupont-Aignan 1.7%, Poutou 1.2%, Arthaud 0.5%, and Cheminade 0.2%

[KoTeMoRe]

However, those people who voted for Le Pen should be more inclined to vote for Sarko in the second round?

You cannot say. A good chunk of them are from popular areas. Overall MLP got them good, with a combative tone. Not really her dad, not really democratic either. I expect a 1/3 PS, 2/3 UMP.

AF: Not really, I think while the *new* FN hates Sarkozy, they cannot bear to see their votes elect a Socialist. One might also beware of the populist votes. Protesting against the System is one thing. Hating the current President is another.

[muck]

Over here analysts say Sarkozy has little chances to attract as many voters from the Far Right as Hollande is expected to mobilize from the Left. Be advised, Froggies. Every people will have the government it deserves.

[SBL]

When will second round elections occur?

[Atlantic Friend]

You cannot say. A good chunk of them are from popular areas. Overall MLP got them good, with a combative tone. Not really her dad, not really democratic either. I expect a 1/3 PS, 2/3 UMP.

x100. In the old industrial areas, a good many of the FN supporters are ex-Communist voters.

[Atlantic Friend]

May the 6th

[KoTeMoRe]

True, and a lot of them were split between Melenchon and MLP. Aah ces Communistes

[Breakfast in Vegas]

May the 6th

The should run it like Eurovision:

And for Sarkozy:
Right wing wackos: 10 points!
2nd generation Algerian immigrants: 1 point.
Renault-driving, wine-loving family of 4 from the Bretagne: 6 points!

[Atlantic Friend]

True, and a lot of them were split between Melenchon and MLP. Aah ces Communistes

Well, thanks Mr Mélenchon for all the potential FN voters you kept at bay!

If I take all the "cols bleus" in my family who live in the South, they all went from PCF to FN within ten years or so in the 1980s.

[JCR]

The should run it like Eurovision:

France can't handle a east european president.