Drug-Defying Germs From India Speed Post-Antibiotic Era

[Flagg]

Drug resistant bacteria is a SERIOUS problem.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...iotic-era.html

Talking recently with a few US Army docs and some folks down here who work in developing world public health this is a SERIOUS issue.

Anyone know much about drug development?

Usually a 7-10 year cycle IF it makes it past approval.

CIPRO is about the last "magic bullet" we've got left....and it's efficacy is fading for a number of reasons.

The generations of antibiotics that have come out since have been a mixed bag......a good chunk of which have been pulled.

We've got little in the way of backup "ammunition" and nothing in the pipeline.

If we get hit with a widespread and persistant antibiotic resistant bacteria, we could be in a world of hurt.

I know for a FACT some of the nasty superbugs found in India have already made their way(in isolated cases) to NZ.

I think some folks like to focus on a superflu and a apocalyptic global outbreak of Ebola.......but I think the far more likely outcome...when combined with inappropriate use of the few antibiotic "weapons" we have, nothing in the pipeline, and global ease of travel....is a possible return to old school infection mortality.

What if a serious scratch, minor wound, or strep throat could kill?

Antibiotics have literally been a miracle for the post WWII world.....but what if we lose the microbial/bacterial "war" for a decade or more until we can build some new weapons?

Something to seriously think about.

[EITAN88]

Several articles out there talking about how nanotechnology should one day provide a substitute for antibiotics.

[Flagg]

Several articles out there talking about how nanotechnology should one day provide a substitute for antibiotics.

Which will be great....but can nanotech push a drug through R&D, trials, and approval any faster?

Minimum 10 years for nanotech to have a big impact in the anti-microbial/bacterial space.......and that's if the project gets the greenlight.....today.

Otherwise, you're looking at a rolling 7-10+ year period minimum from the time a project a greenlight.

[Gordon]

You're all doom and gloom today .. .

The thing that gets me is that this has been known about and widely publicised for a long time but you still get so many doctors widely prescribing antibiotics when they shouldn't be. I am sure it's difficult in third world countries with higher rates of disease but in first world countries there should be more responsibility.

I imagine the formation of these superbugs in India, and other countries, probably isn't helped by large western pharmaceutical companies using those countries as test beds for their new creations.

I was speaking to a guy the other day than heads a venture capitalist firm and one of their present investments is in a diabetes drug. He was telling me they'd just passed phase one of testing in India and they had a couple more years of trials before approval, obviously taking place in India using the indigenous population willing to put their health in jeopardy for a quick buck.

On another note, a Chinese neighbour was telling me the other day that there is a high demand for American antibiotics in China and people will pay a lot more for US products versus Chinese products as there is a large amount of distrust in the quality of locally manufactured pharmaceuticals. I thought it was quite interesting and I guess at least that's one US export.

[tea drinker]

My specialist in blackrock clinic reckons it's only a matter of time, we've gone waaaay over the tipping point as a species,and some pandemic is going to clobber us.

I've had a few good years

[Piirka]

Our final weapon then:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phage_therapy

[Flagg]

You're all doom and gloom today .. .

The thing that gets me is that this has been known about and widely publicised for a long time but you still get so many doctors widely prescribing antibiotics when they shouldn't be. I am sure it's difficult in third world countries with higher rates of disease but in first world countries there should be more responsibility.

I imagine the formation of these superbugs in India, and other countries, probably isn't helped by large western pharmaceutical companies using those countries as test beds for their new creations.

I was speaking to a guy the other day than heads a venture capitalist firm and one of their present investments is in a diabetes drug. He was telling me they'd just passed phase one of testing in India and they had a couple more years of trials before approval, obviously taking place in India using the indigenous population willing to put their health in jeopardy for a quick buck.

On another note, a Chinese neighbour was telling me the other day that there is a high demand for American antibiotics in China and people will pay a lot more for US products versus Chinese products as there is a large amount of distrust in the quality of locally manufactured pharmaceuticals. I thought it was quite interesting and I guess at least that's one US export.

Yeah...a BIT doom and gloom......but not as bad as you might think.

Worst case scenario is we are left with a developing/3rd world level of death from infection.....when's the last time you knew of someone dying from infection(hopefully never)? It could become simply more common....hopefully not much more common.

We all know folks who get sick/hospitalized/visit emergency room each year.......what if instead of 1 in many thousands dying from infection it became 1 in hundreds?

That's not exactly apocalypse movie scary.......but it's "what if you had to be treated in a 3rd world hospital and risk infection" scary.

Not end of the world stuff, not by a long shot.......but certainly the end of the world literally and personally for more families in the soft and comfortable west.

And speaking of soft and comfortable.....the evidence coming in seems to display a trend that our western lifestyles are compromising our immune systems...which may place us at greater risk of a persistant 3rd world drug resistant bacteria/microbe gaining traction in the US and causing damage.

It's funny how they're working on a diabetes drug...makes sense...since obesity levels and type 2 diabetes levels are exploding...and there's lots of money to be made.....but we still haven't beaten malaria or TB...in fact while we are not necessarily losing the war against malaria and TB, we are losing some battles.

Having visited a few 3rd world pharmacies earlier this year, I noticed that western pharmaceuticals(based on assumption from tamper proof features and packaging) were quite popular...didn't see much knock off generics being sold...although strangely enough the pricing between US and 3rd world generics didn't seem TOO far off in a few price examples I saw with people paying cash....but that's just anecdotals from a few visits and a few brief conversations with the staff.

And I'd agree that antibiotic over prescription(combined with patients who fail to fulfill their drug cycle...particularly in TB) is a serious risk of wasting our best ammunition for when we really need it....not based on my professional opinion, I'm just an interested amateur.....but the docs and developing world public health folks I know are pretty uniform on their opinions which have helped me to develop mine.

[tea drinker]

Our final weapon then:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phage_therapy

what about eating your own snot? You never hear of people eating snot getting sick. When was the last time the mainstream media reported that a man who ate his snot everyday for 10 years died from viral pneumonia or some such? Stuff is golden in every sense.

[Flagg]

My specialist in blackrock clinic reckons it's only a matter of time, we've gone waaaay over the tipping point as a species,and some pandemic is going to clobber us.

I've had a few good years

See that's the thing.....I would agree another pandemic is inevitable......BUT I expect we are more likely to be hit by something we are NOT expecting rather than something we are expecting.

Something far less melodramatic and sexy than a Hollywood blockbuster pandemic.

Something insidious like a persistent germ...it doesn't kill everyone......it doesn't even kill most....it just kills some....like 1-2 people you know, rather than 1-2 dozen, or 1-2 hundred..and that's 1-2 each year, every year for a decade.

I think something like that is far more likely in the current environment than a pandemic...just my 0.02c

[Flagg]

what about eating your own snot? You never hear of people eating snot getting sick. When was the last time the mainstream media reported that a man who ate his snot everyday for 10 years died from viral pneumonia or some such? Stuff is golden in every sense.

Interesting.....who knows.....it may see investment/R&D...especially if development cycle is far shorter than developing a new magic antibiotic bullet that could take a decade or more when people are desperate for a solution by February.

The question I have is can it be scaled?

Or is it individual customization?

Even mass customization is far harder than giving everyone the same pill.

[Mordoror]

Our final weapon then:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phage_therapy

Too sovietic; you damn commie

Joke aside (reference to the fact that it was developed in SU because of lack of efficient ATB) the research on phagotherapy is not advanced enough (but coming back on the front scene though)
Moreover it is a bit more difficult than with ATB as you need to have the correct phage vs the correct bacteria
There is no way for example than a phage specific for a staphylococcus would work on a streptococcus

[Piirka]

what about eating your own snot? You never hear of people eating snot getting sick. When was the last time the mainstream media reported that a man who ate his snot everyday for 10 years died from viral pneumonia or some such? Stuff is golden in every sense.

Why don't you blow yourself too? Yoga-experts say that is beneficial to your health.

[tea drinker]

Why don't you blow yourself too? Yoga-experts say that is beneficial to your health.

There's always one fvcker who brings the joke too far
Besides I thought yogi said you should "backfire" your load back into yourself?

[Mordoror]

See that's the thing.....I would agree another pandemic is inevitable......BUT I expect we are more likely to be hit by something we are NOT expecting rather than something we are expecting.

Something far less melodramatic and sexy than a Hollywood blockbuster pandemic.

Something insidious like a persistent germ...it doesn't kill everyone......it doesn't even kill most....it just kills some....like 1-2 people you know, rather than 1-2 dozen, or 1-2 hundred..and that's 1-2 each year, every year for a decade.

I think something like that is far more likely in the current environment than a pandemic...just my 0.02c

Like HIV ?
You know that new variants are appearing regularly (due to transmission of ape born SIVs during butchering and poaching)

To come back on you initial post the danger lies in the already resistant bacterias and they are plenty of them
Tuberculosis XDR (fully resistant to all classical lines of treatment) is what awaits us more likely
And we will just come back 2 century ago

Yersinia pestis MDR, Staphylococcus aureus XDR, MDR Streptococcus are already present on our planet.The first is present in Madagascar, the last two are already roaming in our ICUs
However, while i agree with you that our civilisation has impered somehow our immune defenses (that's shown by the increase in allergies in the overall population) through the whole hygienistic school of thinking, you should remember that we are far more advanced on infectious disease knowledge and managment than our ancestors
A black plague wouldn't go pandemic like during the Middle Age as it would be isolated very quickly

The worst situation is an airborn pathogen with a midly long infection delay (5-7 days) without symptoms and highly transmissible
Unlikely to be a bacterial infection (they are not transmisted so efficiently), more likely to be a viral infection
And that depends a lot of the virus (a classical flu virus infects IIRC 2,1 persons from 1 person ; a measles virus infects 20 persons from 1 person, that's already a huge epidemiological difference)

Now of course we can tak about modified or militarized micro organism
There was a recent polemic about to publish or not the results of some teams that have modified the flu virus and obtained a higly lethal AND highly transmissible airborne strain

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/pand...scary-results/

http://earthsky.org/health/deadly-ma...d-they-publish

Another manipulation on slightly lethal mouse virus train turned it upon a devastating thing

http://www.thefreelibrary.com/Deadly...ng.-a070392663

The risk is also here

And finally as we are expending (as a specie) on the surface of the planet, we are meeting more and more biotopes with possible lethal bugs within
So much in fact that every 6-12 months, a new virus or virus strain is found

examples : http://www.newscientist.com/article/...n-bolivia.html
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/n...evolution.html
http://blog.gale.com/speakinggloball...red-in-africa/
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases...0322151304.htm
http://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/20...Fruitbats.html

That's for the past 4 years

[Piirka]

There's always one fvcker who brings the joke too far
Besides I thought yogi said you should "backfire" your load back into yourself?

I've heard about one yogi, who gave himself every morning a blowjob. He lived to be 68 years old, but died of stabbing. So don't expect it to make you invulnerable to blades.