
Originally Posted by
Ought Six
Nice strawman, but nobody said or thinks that Paul is going to get the nomination at this point, not even his most ardent supporters. But if it goes to a brokered convention, Paul can extract concessions out of Romney so far as policy. And Romney's current delegate count, according to AP, is 966.
The two big remaining state primaries are California (5 June) and Texas (29 May). All the smaller states' primaries between now the Texas primary are conservative states with proportional primaries. Romney is going to have tough sledding there. Texas is a proportional state as well, so Romney only gets a percentage of the delegates based on how well he does in the primary. Texas is a very conservative state, as well as Ron Paul's home state, so how well Romeny does there remains to be seen. Romney is seen as a Massachusetts liberal RINO there. California is a 'winner take all' state, and obviously much more liberal. Romney should win there, and that should get him enough delegates to push him over the top and prevent a brokered convention. Even if that is not enough, New Jersey will be enough if there is just a thin margin remaining. If not, the rest of the remaining states are mostly very conservative and all proportional primaries. So unless something happens or Romney really screws up, he should be able to win the nomination before the convention. Of course, in politics, anything is possible.