Chinese Missile Analysis: Lots of Missiles, US Planes Vulnerable on the Ground

[C.Puffs]

“To secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself.”
― Sun Tzu

“Pretend inferiority and encourage his arrogance.”
― Sun Tzu

“When strong, avoid them. If of high morale, depress them. Seem humble to fill them with conceit. If at ease, exhaust them. If united, separate them. Attack their weaknesses. Emerge to their surprise.”
― Sun Tzu

Yeah, I get that. I'm just saying we need to keep our eyes wide open with China's "Peaceful Rise".

[Zorro C9]

A Cold War 2.0 but with the twist that, for now, we are interconnected economically.

OK here goes.

It's attractive to look at China/US relations as a "new Cold War" and I've heard this bandied about before but I do think it's a soundbite and there's not a lot of substance to it. For one the Cold War was about ideology, almost like a game of Risk- either your country is coloured red or blue or you're not a player (for the most part, we'll conveniently ignore NAM). The Soviet Union was trying to extend Communism, the US was trying to stop it and turn those countries blue. This is not happening today, because China does not see itself as the vanguard of Maoism like it once was in the 60s and 70s. Certainly there is a game of influence going on with China in Africa, the Pacific etc but it's more about getting what they want from those nations (be it ports or resources or whatever) than about extending or stopping Communism.

This is turn means that the proxy wars which defined the Cold War are not happening today between China and the US because neither side has other nations/states/regions with which to shadow fight the other like what happened with the US and USSR in places like Southern Africa, Afghanistan etc.

The third major point is the one you mentioned, economic interdependance. During the Cold War the USSR was basically propped up with grain supplies from outside, something which isn't happening with China. The US/USSR economies could not be compared because the US economy was miles away from the USSR's. This is not the case today, where, as you said, both parties are dependant on each other, not one on the other like in the Cold War.

I'm not really mentioning intelligence because that goes on everywhere, with and against everyone and will forever probably.

Superficially it's nice to look at it like the Cold War but I suspect this comes about because of the amount of undermining that goes on politically and economically from both sides. Really the only similarity is that the US is involved.

*For the purposes of this, the US is considered + mates and the USSR is considered + Warsaw Pact.

[[RNZE]Sapper]

Superficially it's nice to look at it like the Cold War but I suspect this comes about because of the amount of undermining that goes on politically and economically from both sides. Really the only similarity is that the US is involved.

People like the Cold War analogy because we won that one. It ended with the collapse of the USSR, and I think people are hoping for a repeat of the same with China. It's psychologically more enticing if you compare a situation to a previous one where you were the winner.

[Zorro C9]

People like the Cold War analogy because we won that one. It ended with the collapse of the USSR, and I think people are hoping for a repeat of the same with China. It's psychologically more enticing if you compare a situation to a previous one where you were the winner.

That's an excellent point and one I hadn't thought of.

[subotai]

It's attractive to look at China/US relations as a "new Cold War" and I've heard this bandied about before but I do think it's a soundbite and there's not a lot of substance to it.

I would agree. My personal opinion is that what is going on with the US and China feels a lot more like what Europe must have been like with the Habsburgs. It was basically, "I want to do business with you and make some money and gain some power, but I don't trust you, and I don't want to fight you, but how about you marry my daughter so I can spy on you and have some influence....."

[Flagg]

OK here goes.

It's attractive to look at China/US relations as a "new Cold War" and I've heard this bandied about before but I do think it's a soundbite and there's not a lot of substance to it. For one the Cold War was about ideology, almost like a game of Risk- either your country is coloured red or blue or you're not a player (for the most part, we'll conveniently ignore NAM). The Soviet Union was trying to extend Communism, the US was trying to stop it and turn those countries blue. This is not happening today, because China does not see itself as the vanguard of Maoism like it once was in the 60s and 70s. Certainly there is a game of influence going on with China in Africa, the Pacific etc but it's more about getting what they want from those nations (be it ports or resources or whatever) than about extending or stopping Communism.

This is turn means that the proxy wars which defined the Cold War are not happening today between China and the US because neither side has other nations/states/regions with which to shadow fight the other like what happened with the US and USSR in places like Southern Africa, Afghanistan etc.

The third major point is the one you mentioned, economic interdependance. During the Cold War the USSR was basically propped up with grain supplies from outside, something which isn't happening with China. The US/USSR economies could not be compared because the US economy was miles away from the USSR's. This is not the case today, where, as you said, both parties are dependant on each other, not one on the other like in the Cold War.

I'm not really mentioning intelligence because that goes on everywhere, with and against everyone and will forever probably.

Superficially it's nice to look at it like the Cold War but I suspect this comes about because of the amount of undermining that goes on politically and economically from both sides. Really the only similarity is that the US is involved.

*For the purposes of this, the US is considered + mates and the USSR is considered + Warsaw Pact.

The closest thing to a Cold War today like the previous battle of ideology between capitalism and various flavours of communism/socialism is the battle of ideology between fundamentalist christian and fundamentalist muslim...which will rear it's head when Peak Cheap Oil attacks again....putting even more power in the hands of a genuine ideological enemy.

But that's just noise and distraction(although a genuine problem) splitting our attention away from the most serious threat.

We are losing the war of capitalism.......the Chinese version of corrupt capitalism appears to be winning the economic war against our version of corrupt capitalism...or at least is seizing the initiative by gaining key terrain and possibly vital ground in that dimension of this war.

Beware of assumptions on economic interdependence and Economic MAD.......IF 30-40% of Chinese exports are going to the US there is Economic MAD....if <10% of Chinese exports are going to the US there is NOT Economic MAD......if combined with China possessing creditor status over the US, the Chinese possess the vital ground and the battle/war is untenable for the US.