(What If) What happen if the Iranian Revolution Never Happen or Failed?

[Shadowstorm]

Lately, there has been a lot talks from Iran about their nuclear weapons program and political issues. However, I wanted to focus on the what would happen if the Iranian Revolution never happen or failed and what would happen if the Shah or his successor continue running Iran?

What would happen had the revolution failed and Khomeini either arrested, exiled, or killed. Also the Shah was in no good health either since he was dying from cancer too. What would happen if his son or somebody else took over the crown and what would Iranian political climate look like 2012.


Also, what about Iranian relationship with neighbor's in the Middle East, Soviet Union, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. A top of that Iran and Iraq relations weren't that good even though a treaty was signed between both nations in 1975. Also relations with Israel during the Shah period was stable compared to Arab nations around Israel and Israeli's has provided Iranians with missile and other weapon technology during the secretive Project Flower program back in the late-70's.

If Iraq had attack Iran when the Shah was still in office, the Imperial Iranian Armed Forces would have been better equipped compared to the Islamic Iranian Armed Forces during Iran-Iraq War and also Iran was about the following equipment:

160 F-16A/B' Fighting Falcons
70 more F-14 Tomcat's
16 more RF-4E Phantoms
7 E-3A Sentry's
400 Bell 214
4 Kidd class destroyers
1000's Shir 1 & 2 tanks from the UK
And other military equipment U.S, UK, Italy, and other nations.

Also, what would US and other nations do if Iraq had attack Iran, would there be similar action by the coalition forces similar during Operation Desert Storm an another question is what about Afghanistan when the Soviet invaded that country along airspace violations which was also going on in Pakistan.

Also, what would Iranian life look like in the 21st Century and how would they react to the modern societies along with the Global War on Terrorism.

My knowledge on Iran is limited, so I'm sorry about that.

[TheKiwi]

Tricky. You need to remember that there was a large groundswell for change in Iran at the time of the revolution. The Shah and his regeme were not popular with large segments of the population who felt that modernisation had been too fast or (alternatively) not far enough. So there is going to be trouble even if the secret poice manage to prevent outright revolution. This means less stability. It was also the time of the Jimmy Carter presidency and he (and congress to some extent) were not wanting to look like they were backing repressive regeme's (hence the lack of support for the Samoza's in Nicaragua for example). This may also mean less US support and "delays" in the delivery of weapon systems.

Without the massive distruption to Iran's armed forces from the revolution there is no way that Iraq is confident enough to attack. Even with unrest as I postulate above, it's unlikely to be sufficient to make it seem likely to succeed.

As for Soviet airspace violations, that was a big part of the reason why the F-14's were sold in the first place.

[Ordie]

The despotic Shah would've been overthrown the same.

A better question would be:

What would've happened if the democratic government of Mohammad Mosaddegh wasn't overthrown by the United States?

[TheKiwi]

Ah, a historical determinist! It was destined to happen in the stars, there was nothing that could have changed the outcome...

[Violet Fashion by Mindy]

America gets it's oil supplied cheaply by governments of secular nations.

Saudia Arabia loses it's influence over Islam as Saddam Hussein wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 1992 for spreading secularism to the Arabian Peninsular and becoming recognised as the founder of the "New Age of Islamic Enlightenment"

[Chiptox]

What would've happened if the democratic government of Mohammad Mosaddegh wasn't overthrown by the United States?

Iran would've become a USSR satellite country.

The US meddled for a reason.

[TheKiwi]

America gets it's oil supplied cheaply by governments of secular nations.

Saudia Arabia loses it's influence over Islam as Saddam Hussein wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 1992 for spreading secularism to the Arabian Peninsular and becoming recognised as the founder of the "New Age of Islamic Enlightenment"

Ah yes, because Persian Iran was the only place where islamic radiacism took hold....

Still there is certainly plenty of precident for war mongering pricks getting the Peace Prize...

[Ordie]

Iran would've become a USSR satellite country.

The US meddled for a reason.

I don't think so.
We would've had another non-aligned nation akin to India to deal with.
In turn we got somethng worst and were still paying the price well after the USSR.

[KoTeMoRe]

Iran would've become a USSR satellite country.

The US meddled for a reason.

... Sorry wat? The US meddled because the UK was needing hands for its wet work. After Operaton Ajax the UK found out that the US had completely taken over the Iranian deal. Mossadegh was not the uber-democrat one wants to sell you. Thik of him as Juan Peron, more than an Arbenz or Allende.

The open Historical account that Iran had with Russia in 1953, coupled with the conservatism of the Iranian society would have been a great way for the Soviets to kickstart Afghanistan, 25 years earlier and with much more important population.

Actually yes, Islamism as a modern political movement found its way in only two places (although Moamar G. was only there for the money.) Libya and Iran.

Carter ... not supporting those ugly regimes? Just the Khmer Rouge and affiliates, supporting them Chinese against Viet-Nam, do we stop there?

[Violet Fashion by Mindy]

Think about it for a second.

Without the revolution you have no Iran/Iraq war.

What you do have is two secular run countries with massive amounts of money, run by secularists. Saudi Arabia by it's own would not be able to fund the extremists and as more and more wealthy Iraqi's and Iranians visit Mecca/Medina the locals in Saudi Arabia would be screaming for change.

The Gulf States themselves were too small at the time to have any influence so with Saudi Arabia being isolated against two wealthy nations with diversified economies with well educated populations who enjoy the most freedoms outside of Israel in the region then the extremists would lose all of their influence in Saudi Arabia.

[TheKiwi]

...

Actually yes, Islamism as a modern political movement found its way in only two places (although Moamar G. was only there for the money.) Libya and Iran.

Carter ... not supporting those ugly regimes? Just the Khmer Rouge and affiliates, supporting them Chinese against Viet-Nam, do we stop there?

Where did the Muslim Brotherhood in Egpyt spring from then?*

And you'll note I said "not wanting to look like they were backing repressive regeme's" ...

*EDIT: 1920's when I think about it, so not "modern" per se.

[KoTeMoRe]

Think about it for a second.

Without the revolution you have no Iran/Iraq war.

What you do have is two secular run countries with massive amounts of money, run by secularists. Saudi Arabia by it's own would not be able to fund the extremists and as more and more wealthy Iraqi's and Iranians visit Mecca/Medina the locals in Saudi Arabia would be screaming for change.

The Gulf States themselves were too small at the time to have any influence so with Saudi Arabia being isolated against two wealthy nations with diversified economies with well educated populations who enjoy the most freedoms outside of Israel in the region then the extremists would lose all of their influence in Saudi Arabia.

Negative...they would probably ask for a different kind of change, just like they did in 1973, 1975 and 1979...and if the Iranian influence was to be too strong the 1987 slaughter would have been hasted.

The Iran/Iraq war was on its course. Iraq could not keep the mono-income economy without taking care of one of the big issues regarding the OPEC. Those big issues were dealing with the KSA (protected by the US) and tackling Iran (also protected by the US) on the quotas. On those grounds Saudi Arabia would have been the easier target, but also the first oil producer (IE an clear invitation to get hammered by the US or induce a confrontation between the USSR and the US). Throw in the Israeli/OLP issue and you have a classic clusterfvck.

TheKiwi. I meant modern such as involving a political doxa for social action beyond the Qurhan. The IRI has a unique set of modern features for a *theocracy*. Different Parties, A functioning Majlis and most importantly specific seats for religious and ethnic minorities. None such things with the MB. Moamar tried a fusion of Marxism and islam...it ended in a culvert with a couple of stoned Libyans.

On Carter, sorry my bad I jumped on the gun.

My view is that the Shah is literally scared to death after the attempt. Seeks a way out of the situation and back pedals partially on at least the most radical reforms, Land, Hijra, Water, Women rights. He then completly stalls the Empire and makes it a de facto client State. He is overthrown in 1985/86 by a popular movement sparked by the Army (Greek/Portugese Scenario).

Saddam seizes the opportunity to have a go at some one, after years of a grey war with Israel over its nuclear program and the help it had lent to Syria in 1982. Iran has its Gulf War, implicates the USSR who plays the Broker between the two. The Global economy takes a double hit in 1987 (petrol/bubble) and the global crisis expands to the point of shadowing the lingering Yugoslav crisis. The cold war lasts just a tad longer as the USSR has not gone into Afghanistan.

[Chulo]

This question was asked and discussed on NPR today. Wish I had the time to listen to it all.

[TheKiwi]

Got to say that I pretty much find myself agreeing with KoTeMoRe on this - a rather rare event all in itself and maybe a portent of the acopolypse...

[Ordie]

This question was asked and discussed on NPR today. Wish I had the time to listen to it all.

You can still finish listening it.
http://www.npr.org/2012/05/17/152893...a-coup-in-iran