and the 2nd because they would have grown from a nation with limited influence in the Middle East
Not only. The vey inspiration of AQ (occupation of holy land by crusaders dixit UBL) would have disapeared.
Maybe UBL would have grown less frustrated (it was also the rebuke of his proposal to fight with his Afghan djihadists against Irak by the KSA royal family and his following demise and move to Sudan that led to the rooting of AQ)