Russia Faces Full-Scale Political Crisis – Report

[Hisroyalhighness]

Russia is facing a full-scale political crisis which may lead to a radical transformation of the country’s ruling system as a result of the growing rivalry between the government and opposition, a report issued by the Moscow-based Center for Strategic Research (TsSR) said.
The report, entitled “Society and Authorities in the Situation of Political Crisis,” sums up the results of a public survey conducted at the request of the Committee of Civil Initiatives, a public organization headed by former Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin.
“The survey shows that the current state of Russia’s society and authorities has many features of a full-fledged political crisis,” the document reads.
“From the society’s side, the crisis reflects not so much the spread of protest-****e social groups as increasing tiredness of political leaders and the ruling elite as a whole,” it states, adding: “Political demands of the population have become more mature and pragmatic.”
TsSR president Mikhail Dmitriyev told RIA Novosti in March the current forecast covered a period of six to nine months.
The report was the third evaluation of the social and political situation in Russia prepared by the non-government think-tank. Two previous surveys, which pointed to the Russian political leadership’s falling popularity and a looming political crisis in the country as a result of growing protest sentiments, were published the Center in 2011.
Following the December 2011 parliamentary election, Russia was hit by a wave ofunprecedented street protest, triggered by allegations of mass fraud in favor of the pro-Kremlin United Russia party. Dozens of thousands of people took to the streets in Moscow and other big cities across the country to demand free and fair elections.
The protests prompted the authorities to pass laws easing the registration of political parties and presidential candidates, as well as to reintroduce direct elections of regional governors scrapped in 2004.
The reforms, however, have failed to satisfy the opposition, and protests against Vladimir Putin’s return to the Kremlin have continued in Moscow up until now despite police crackdowns.
TsSR analysts said in their report that measures taken by the Russian leadership in response to their declining popularity “have ensured victory in the parliamentary and presidential elections, but have not stopped the erosion of political support from mass social groups.”
Although the ongoing anti-Putin protests in Moscow have not had broad support beyond the capital, they “have had and will continue having a major influence on the development of the political crisis.”
Moreover, in the face of a possible economic crisis, protest sentiments are likely to spill beyond Moscow and affect larger groups of population, which may lead to the Russian leadership loosing their control of the country, the report said.
The most likely scenarios of for the current political crisis include a government crackdown on the opposition and a radical transformation of Russia’s current power system, the analysts said.
“The risk of political reaction [to defeat the opposition] is increasing, and the vector of [Russia’s] politics will now move towards limiting the pending reforms,” the report said, adding: “Russia’s history knows examples of reforms in that came too late.”
Dialogue between the opposition and advocates of modernization in the government is the only thing that can prevent a collapse of Russia’s political system, the experts concluded.
They have also not ruled out that the newly formed government of Dmitry Medvedev will not last long.
If the government fails to meet the most acute public demands – which include better education, health services, personal security, infrastructure, as well as the rule of law – this may lead to "quick exhaustion of the already weak public support" of Medvedev’s cabinet and its early dissolution.
Dmitriyev said in March he believed the current parliament could be reelected in three years - two years before the end of its term – and that this may also result in Medvedev being forced out of the prime minister’s office.
The survey was conducted in three stages in March, April and May and involved people of different ages, professions and political views in many cities and towns across Russia.

http://en.rian.ru/society/20120524/173636674.html

I'm probably going to regret posting this analysis.

[That One Guy]

Obvious question: From where does the Center for Strategic Research receive its financing?

[Hisroyalhighness]

Obvious question: From where does the Center for Strategic Research receive its financing?

From the Russian Government

JK, I really don't know, but I know TsSR and I have seen their articles from time to time, It's more or less a pro-government think tank, not something endorsed by Jamestown Foundation or Politicheskaya Analitika.

[That One Guy]

^ Hmm, well, it says in the article that "(the) report was... prepared by the non-government think-tank." So, it's not a government think-tank, but it it is still underwritten by the government? I'm not sure how they do their categorizing, but that is odd.

So far, at least from what I've seen in reports, the protests have been local to Moscow, and not really that massive. It'll be interesting so see if the spreading that the article predicts is borne out.

[Hisroyalhighness]

^There are analysts who don't belong to the ruling administration, but yet still support the general guidelines of said ruling body. After all you can't rely on organizations who only preach sunshine and rainbows or fire and brimstone to allow you to make rational decisions about the population's needs, TsSR offers a douse of healthy criticism of gov practices and politics while still supporting it and without any foreign influence.

But yes let's see if predictions in the report prove true.

[AlexMartin2]

Basically there are two wings in Ru gov. One of them is "liberals" and the other is "conservatives". I wrote this in quotes because names are quite nominal. Presumably liberals are lead by Surkov/Medvedev and conservatives by Putin.
This article is pushed by liberal wing through former finance minister Kudrin, and it tries to tell us (and to the other group) that liberal reforms are needed.
Since opposition is a joke, obviously "rivalry" in the article means rivalry between these wings.

Liberals want more control over political and economical processes, but frankly speaking their position is very weak, since majority of Ru population don't want liberal reforms at all. These reforms in 90th almost destroyed the country and now nobody wants to repeat that. And funny thing is that these liberal reforms are exactly the same as in 90th, i.e. privatization, more autonomy, less gov.spending, etc I don't understand what are they thinking proposing it

[That One Guy]

^ Do you think that it could be an implied threat from the liberal wing that they'll make an alliance of convenience with the "opposition" if their agenda isn't allowed more traction in terms of policy?

[AlexMartin2]

^ Do you think that it could be an implied threat from the liberal wing that they'll make an alliance of convenience with the "opposition" if their agenda isn't allowed more traction in terms of policy?

Interesting question... I personally think that the opposition have too little support, so alliance with them would be bad. Some opposition figures like Navalny/Udaltsov are too controversial, joining with them can ruin any political party or force.
It actually happened just a few months ago when communists supported these figures, and as a result a lot of people became fully dissapointed with KPRF.