In another case maybe - but I doubt that it's the case here. Turks are not about to sacrifice an experienced crew and specialised plane, and the pilots are not about to martyr themselves for the sake of invoking article 4 of the NATO treaty. Most likely they were just trying to capture some electronic signals, maybe pick up some transmissions and test Syria's air defenses.
The Turkish account is surprisingly similar to Syrian:
That confirms my conclusions:
1) Syrians were tracking the jet for long time and it was no surprise to them.
2) The F-4 was flying at high altitude, otherwise they were not able to track it.
3) Syrians were pretty sure that its a Turkish plane, because it flew through Turkish territory at high altitude and then loitered around.
4) Its ridiculous to assume that a hostile plane intending to attack would loiter before that at high altitude dragging all possible attention.
But there is one additional thing: there was low pass through Syrian waters between 11:42 and 11:47. Then plane again climbed at high altitude and returned to about same position as before the pass.
Its very possible that they decided to make another low pass but were shot down.
This is strange and quite provocative behavior. But it same time its not really menacing, because plane which intends to attack would never behave like that.
Interesting analysis. But, what's the verdict? Who's really at fault? It doesn't look like the Turks crossed any international lines, but then again, I'm not an expert on Turk-Syrian borders.
And, what would prompt a recon plane, as such, to make those maneuvers (the dives)?
Also, what's the latest? Did they find the pilots, by chance? Hope they're alright.
Well my conclusion that Turkish behavior was provocative but not menacing.
Especially since the jet was not shot during the first dive but when it climbed at high altitude and returned back again.
Its also unclear if it was making second dive, but anyways in such cases of strange behavior I think you should send your own fighter and check whats the hell is going on.
The clear political winner out of this situation is NATO.
Posted this in the other forum, but no one replied
- http://edition.cnn.com/2012/06/24/wo...html?hpt=hp_t2Turkish search-and-rescue teams found the wreckage of a fighter jet shot down by Syria in an incident that raises the temperature between the two regional powers significantly, Turkish television reported Sunday.
Phantom shot down by SA-3, i have an urge for few Creedence songs.
11:58-hit point-13 miles away
12:02 fall point.-8 miles away
It seems they tried to reach nearest land for ejection.
BTW there some new radar compounds and SAM batteries in top of the mounts of Hatay district.
Syrian security forces fired on a Turkish-flagged search and rescue plane which rushed into Syrian airspace to locate the downed Turkish F4 jet and its two missing pilots June 22, the Hürriyet Daily News has learned from Western diplomatic sources.
“[In addition to] what we have seen in the media, we have been informed that Syrian forces opened fire on another Turkish plane [which had come to the region] as part of the search and rescue operation,” sources told the Daily News on the condition of anonymity.
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/tur...&NewsCatID=338
Syrian officials were fully aware that a jet their forces downed on June 22 was Turkish as they used the Turkish word for “neighbor” to refer to the aircraft, a Turkish intelligence official has said, according to daily Hürriyet.
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/syr...&NewsCatID=338
only if he was evading common sense. He was flying twice towards the coast of Syria. What kind of nonsense mission was this diving towards coastal batteries and what respect for the crew of the F4 does it show? Mission goals still not clearly stated.
Margins of error not stated on the powerpoint slide.