China starts "combat ready" patrols in disputed seas

[beta_1]

If China uses the full power of its military to seize the 'disputed islands', that could force a U.S. response. They do not want that right now. They lack the power to counter us militarily that far from their shores. They also know that Obama would like nothing better than a military confrontation where he could play the strong Commander In Chief and distract attention from the economy. I think China will continue to assert its claim with the minimum amount of power until conditions are better for them to make a big move. The Chinese are nothing if not patient. And I think they are pretty overconfident when it comes to dealing with the Philippines and Vietnam.

1. Surely you are not suggesting that the US with her mighty Navy would be going to war with a nuclear power, to say nothing about the interdependence of the 2 economies, if the PLAN were going to land a few hundred men here and there to "seize" the Spratley islands, are you? Because that would be insane.

2. The PRC, and going further back, the Koumingtang China, have long held the South China Sea as sort of a giant backyard pond, where her Navy can train and operate before going further east (or west depending on one's ref.). Now with the discovery of the natural resources under the sea floor, it's even more vital for her economics and security.

3. Further, rumor has long held that substantial number of the PLAN nuclear ballistic submarines is based in Hainan island. Which route is more preferable for them to go out? Go straight east and run the gauntlet of monitors and detection from the Taiwan navy, US 7th Fleet in Japan, the Jap navy, the So. Korean navy. Or go south into the S. China Sea, where there is really no one to challenge them, and then loop around? Hence the PRC cannot allow any potential military presence on the islands to jeopardize that.

4. Commie China is overconfident in dealing with commie Vietnam?? "Overconfidence"? Really?? Does anyone know how much political and economic, and military sway commie China holds over commie Vietnam? Let see: how much refined oil/gasoline, electricity does VN get from China? How about water resources? How about natural resources mining by China in the Central Highland in VN? how about import and export? I'd give you a hint: couple yrs ago Chinese merchants were importing rice from South VN, paying above market price, and VN almost went into panic because of shortage for domestic consumption. And this story is being repeated for almost everything else (All these are publicly acknowledged by VN, so the real statistics are probably more dire than that). If the PRC decides to tighten the economic noose, VN's economy would screech to a complete halt, and spiral to a tailspin. In fact my personal opinion is the commie China could bankrupt commie VN in a New York minute without batting a blink.
How about political sway? Do you know the political dynamic inside VN? The who's who, and their political patrons and orientation? Hint: 2 out of the 3 heads of the triad in VN politics look to Beijing for support. People often make the flawed assumption that because VN has long history of political and military conflicts with China, it is going to be the case with the current commie leadership in VN. Before making that leap, ask yourselves which is more preferable to the current commie leadership in VN: (no, not the top leadership who could seek political asylum in the West ironically, but the middle-to-upper tier) 1. get close to the West and increase the risk of being overthrown ala East Europe style, or 2. submit to commie China and hold onto the economic, and political benefits owing to Chinese supports. So, don't be fooled by the rhetoric and public posturing. Follow the money and you will see!
Never make the assumption that dictators, and communist leaders automatically serve the national interests. They follow their own interests, the Party's interests first and foremost, and then maybe national interests.
Military control? Sure, there is a camp in the senior officer corps to want to stand up to China, but the opposite camp wields more power and gaining ranks. Now, the VPA's (VN People Army) Political Dept. cadres regularly go to China for "training." In fact a senior delegation of the Dept. just went to China for exchange and training. And if one has any knowledge about the organization of communist armed forces, s/he knows the political commissars hold the ultimate power in tactical units. The real power in the Defense Ministry is a China hand. In fact he was handpicked and promoted for the position despite the objections of both active and retired senior military leaders precisely because the PLA handpicked him. Again, don't be fooled by the public buying of shiny new toys in fighter jets, submarines, etc. It's all domestic political consumption and poker-faced posturing. It would not surprise me in the least if the purchases were made with credits from the People Bank of China. It would not be out of the realm of possibility that the PLAN Southern Fleet HQ has already drawn up possible names as to who commands the Kilo subs, and their possible operational routes. Vietnam politburo and its military HQ are thoroughly penetrated by China's intelligence service. They won't stand up to their master, and even if VN could stand up by a miracle, she won't stand a chance. After all there is no Soviet Union around this time to supply her money and weapons. Putin is joined up with Beijing at the hip.

[fadine]

BLAP BLAP....

Fun! But I like more if you can provide some source about Vietnam phase.
The Vietnamese Economic is true market economy, and have full power for self adjustment. While China's economy is unequal economy, and if not have border economic with Vietnam, there will be disorder inside.
Vietnam Communist Party and VPA can make win with France, US, China ... because it do what it believes and base on Vietnamese people, in past and today. Not like Chinese, members of Vietnam Communist Party have true faith.
In the past, Vietnamese need aids from CCCP and China, but now, Vietnamese have aids of self, not too much but enough for self defense.

[Ought Six]

1. Surely you are not suggesting that the US with her mighty Navy would be going to war with a nuclear power, to say nothing about the interdependence of the 2 economies, if the PLAN were going to land a few hundred men here and there to "seize" the Spratley islands, are you? Because that would be insane.

A likely response would be to call a meeting of SEATO, get a multinational agreement, have the Philippines, Vietnam and anyone else we can get to participate to contribute some token naval forces to an 'international force', and then establish a naval blockade of the island landing force. That would put the Chinese in the position of having to shoot at us to get through and resupply their landing force.
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2. The PRC, and going further back, the Koumingtang China, have long held the South China Sea as sort of a giant backyard pond, where her Navy can train and operate before going further east (or west depending on one's ref.). Now with the discovery of the natural resources under the sea floor, it's even more vital for her economics and security.

China is a signatory to the body of treaties that make up the international law that invalidates their BS claims to the 'disputed islands'.
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3. Further, rumor has long held that substantial number of the PLAN nuclear ballistic submarines is based in Hainan island. Which route is more preferable for them to go out? Go straight east and run the gauntlet of monitors and detection from the Taiwan navy, US 7th Fleet in Japan, the Jap navy, the So. Korean navy. Or go south into the S. China Sea, where there is really no one to challenge them, and then loop around? Hence the PRC cannot allow any potential military presence on the islands to jeopardize that.

We are not going to accept the principle that international law goes in the trashcan and China gets to seize the entire South China Sea.
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4. Commie China is overconfident in dealing with commie Vietnam?? "Overconfidence"? Really?? Does anyone know how much political and economic, and military sway commie China holds over commie Vietnam? Let see: how much refined oil/gasoline, electricity does VN get from China? How about water resources? How about natural resources mining by China in the Central Highland in VN? how about import and export? I'd give you a hint: couple yrs ago Chinese merchants were importing rice from South VN, paying above market price, and VN almost went into panic because of shortage for domestic consumption. And this story is being repeated for almost everything else (All these are publicly acknowledged by VN, so the real statistics are probably more dire than that). If the PRC decides to tighten the economic noose, VN's economy would screech to a complete halt, and spiral to a tailspin. In fact my personal opinion is the commie China could bankrupt commie VN in a New York minute without batting a blink.

How about political sway? Do you know the political dynamic inside VN? The who's who, and their political patrons and orientation? Hint: 2 out of the 3 heads of the triad in VN politics look to Beijing for support. People often make the flawed assumption that because VN has long history of political and military conflicts with China, it is going to be the case with the current commie leadership in VN. Before making that leap, ask yourselves which is more preferable to the current commie leadership in VN: (no, not the top leadership who could seek political asylum in the West ironically, but the middle-to-upper tier) 1. get close to the West and increase the risk of being overthrown ala East Europe style, or 2. submit to commie China and hold onto the economic, and political benefits owing to Chinese supports. So, don't be fooled by the rhetoric and public posturing. Follow the money and you will see!

Yet Vietnam is openly challenging the Chinese on this. It seems the people that actually matter do not much care about your analysis.
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Never make the assumption that dictators, and communist leaders automatically serve the national interests. They follow their own interests, the Party's interests first and foremost, and then maybe national interests.

You have a firm grasp of the obvious.
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Military control? Sure, there is a camp in the senior officer corps to want to stand up to China, but the opposite camp wields more power and gaining ranks. Now, the VPA's (VN People Army) Political Dept. cadres regularly go to China for "training." In fact a senior delegation of the Dept. just went to China for exchange and training. And if one has any knowledge about the organization of communist armed forces, s/he knows the political commissars hold the ultimate power in tactical units. The real power in the Defense Ministry is a China hand. In fact he was handpicked and promoted for the position despite the objections of both active and retired senior military leaders precisely because the PLA handpicked him. Again, don't be fooled by the public buying of shiny new toys in fighter jets, submarines, etc. It's all domestic political consumption and poker-faced posturing. It would not surprise me in the least if the purchases were made with credits from the People Bank of China. It would not be out of the realm of possibility that the PLAN Southern Fleet HQ has already drawn up possible names as to who commands the Kilo subs, and their possible operational routes. Vietnam politburo and its military HQ are thoroughly penetrated by China's intelligence service. They won't stand up to their master, and even if VN could stand up by a miracle, she won't stand a chance. After all there is no Soviet Union around this time to supply her money and weapons. Putin is joined up with Beijing at the hip.

There is a very powerful force you are completely ignoring here; Vietnamese national pride. The Vietnamese are not going to just lay down to be shat upon by China. China is sticking it to them, and the Vietnamese people are already pissed. Politicians over there who are seen bowing to China's demands will not last long. The whole relationship with China has been soured, and even if it hurts them economically and politically, the Vietnamese are only going to take so much before they turn on China. And we will be right there to help them.

[C.Puffs]

There is an attack sub in Subic right now I believe. What China could be doing is forcing its rival to tool up and thereby destroy its economy... something to think about.

Exactly what percentage of the GDP do you think the US spends on it's military? This may come as a shock to you but historically it's nothing exceptional.

[C.Puffs]

Economic vise is a two-way sword. China's economy is pretty dependent upon the US market. Cut off that market and China's economy is in deep doo. Cut off Chinese imports to the US, and the US simply imports more from Korea, et. al.

The problem is not the multitude of islands, it is the stunning misperceptions by the Chinese illustrated by their ham-handed actions. That is what is of grave concern ... Misperceptions often lead critical, even fatal policy decisions. If the Chinese can exhibit such profound stupidity ... as they have so far in the S. China Sea ... can they also make a serious miscalculation about the resolve of much of the rest of the world?

I'm not getting the impression that either China or Russia think Obama has any resolve at all. Despite all the strutting and chest-thumping about Bin Laden, coming to the aid of an ally against China in a naval war is a whole other kettle of fish.

[Laworkerbee]

2. The PRC, and going further back, the Koumingtang China, have long held the South China Sea as sort of a giant backyard pond, where her Navy can train and operate before going further east (or west depending on one's ref.). Now with the discovery of the natural resources under the sea floor, it's even more vital for her economics and security.

With what fleet? Koumingtang China never had a blue water navy, hell China hasn't had a decent navy since Zheng He was around.

[Capt.Prat]

What the f*ck is a non-combat ready military patrol?

a ship that is not ready to fight

[mamamia]

4. Commie China is overconfident in dealing with commie Vietnam?? "Overconfidence"? Really?? Does anyone know how much political and economic, and military sway commie China holds over commie Vietnam? Let see: how much refined oil/gasoline, electricity does VN get from China? How about water resources? How about natural resources mining by China in the Central Highland in VN? how about import and export? I'd give you a hint: couple yrs ago Chinese merchants were importing rice from South VN, paying above market price, and VN almost went into panic because of shortage for domestic consumption. And this story is being repeated for almost everything else (All these are publicly acknowledged by VN, so the real statistics are probably more dire than that). If the PRC decides to tighten the economic noose, VN's economy would screech to a complete halt, and spiral to a tailspin. In fact my personal opinion is the commie China could bankrupt commie VN in a New York minute without batting a blink.
How about political sway? Do you know the political dynamic inside VN? The who's who, and their political patrons and orientation? Hint: 2 out of the 3 heads of the triad in VN politics look to Beijing for support. People often make the flawed assumption that because VN has long history of political and military conflicts with China, it is going to be the case with the current commie leadership in VN. Before making that leap, ask yourselves which is more preferable to the current commie leadership in VN: (no, not the top leadership who could seek political asylum in the West ironically, but the middle-to-upper tier) 1. get close to the West and increase the risk of being overthrown ala East Europe style, or 2. submit to commie China and hold onto the economic, and political benefits owing to Chinese supports. So, don't be fooled by the rhetoric and public posturing. Follow the money and you will see!
Never make the assumption that dictators, and communist leaders automatically serve the national interests. They follow their own interests, the Party's interests first and foremost, and then maybe national interests.
Military control? Sure, there is a camp in the senior officer corps to want to stand up to China, but the opposite camp wields more power and gaining ranks. Now, the VPA's (VN People Army) Political Dept. cadres regularly go to China for "training." In fact a senior delegation of the Dept. just went to China for exchange and training. And if one has any knowledge about the organization of communist armed forces, s/he knows the political commissars hold the ultimate power in tactical units. The real power in the Defense Ministry is a China hand. In fact he was handpicked and promoted for the position despite the objections of both active and retired senior military leaders precisely because the PLA handpicked him. Again, don't be fooled by the public buying of shiny new toys in fighter jets, submarines, etc. It's all domestic political consumption and poker-faced posturing. It would not surprise me in the least if the purchases were made with credits from the People Bank of China. It would not be out of the realm of possibility that the PLAN Southern Fleet HQ has already drawn up possible names as to who commands the Kilo subs, and their possible operational routes. Vietnam politburo and its military HQ are thoroughly penetrated by China's intelligence service. They won't stand up to their master, and even if VN could stand up by a miracle, she won't stand a chance. After all there is no Soviet Union around this time to supply her money and weapons. Putin is joined up with Beijing at the hip.

Is this the kind of stuff the CCP feeds their youth? CCP also needs to tell their youth that in the Treaty of Beibu Gulf, China lost to Viet Nam 8000 km2 of sea area and Viet Nam accomplish this by not even firing one single bullet LOL

[cool_nickname]

Japan strong!!!1!!

[junglejim]

Exactly what percentage of the GDP do you think the US spends on it's military? This may come as a shock to you but historically it's nothing exceptional.

Sorry if I wasnt clear i meant rivals, by that I meant claimants to the South China Sea. The ones that are being forced to buy weapons just to counter them. The Philippine economy is getting stronger, and all that can be destroyed if the government and the people panic and lose focus on building the necessary needs to keep growing and just go for broke building up a very internal focused Armed Forces.

So far i have't seen that in the country but there are talking going around that maybe we should used that $80 Billion reserve to haul ass in buying weapons.