Syria troops mass on Turkey border

[utelore]

Sure, absolutely. The tactical skill set of many Syrian military units are horrid. I would have to rate the skill sets of both sides as incompetent, in gerneral. With that said, they are still very proficient at killing each-other on a massive scale. I think there are just enough units of the government side that have shown to be at times competent and many the writer of the above article has not come into contact with these units as of yet. For instance i observed one unit of the Syrian army pound a small village with tanks from outside the town and then had sniper units picking off FSA as they evacuated blown up buildings from the opposite side. They took the village, apparently inflicted casualties on the FSA OPFOR without sustaining observed losses.

[Ulytau]

Summer means an Income of $30-$40bn from tourists, do you think Tourists would like to visit a warzone or that Turkey will pass up on such money and initiate a war? That sort of money could easily take some European countries out of debt, while it holds Turkish economy level...

Well before every tourism season terrorists and their supporters threat tourists mate,majority of them wont give single **** btw.

[Silent Reader]

Well before every tourism season terrorists and their supporters threat tourists mate,majority of them wont give single **** btw.

The terrorist threats usually are not that widely reported though (especially as you said as this happens every season) a war with Syria - even if limited to border skirmishes would be much more visible and get a much higher attention.

[kalerab]

For instance i observed one unit of the Syrian army pound a small village with tanks from outside the town

This picked up my interest. If you do not mind saying, how come that you were in warzone in Syria?

[utelore]

No I was not there. I saw this on a vid taken from the Syrian unit. They were clearly using fairly sound methods. MBT at about 700 meters with supporting snipers. clearly being cautious and using their advantage in range and heavy weapons.

[Flamming_Python]

The alawites 2 million strong are also heavily backed by nearly 2 million Christians who fear Islamist take over and slaughter. They are highly organized and very very well equipped. They are also heavily backed by outside GO resources. For instance we can see Armenian/Russian former Speztsnaz operating in country and Lebanon based groups such as Hezbollah. Quads forces and revolutionary guard are very active on the ground especially in the Alawite mountain ranges conducting MOUNT training.

I am interested in your sources for this information; specifically about the wide-scale support of Christians and Alawites towards Assad's government. The trouble is that we get very one-sided information here, and it would be good if we have some other sources too.

And what about the former Russian spetsnaz, and especially Armenians too; what do you know about them?

[utelore]

I am in contact with persons who have family members in Syria. While there is a huge amount of descent there is also a fair amount of support for the Assad regime especially in the Alawite mountains along the coast and in Maronite christian areas. You can confirm support when you see large columns of troops and equipment on the move who then attack a large rebel enclave occupied by hundreds of rebels. These units press the attack and have won in every single engagement in which they were ordered to take a town. Many units are still responding to orders and not just traditional regime diehards like the 4th and R-guard but other units also. The Syrian army has only lost smaller towns and sections of larger cities. At any time Government troops can seize any objective they are ordered to. The problem is keeping it for extended periods of time because of the need to redeploy these units to take other objectives.

As for the outside actors such as the Armenians this is just what I have been told. We know there are Armenians in Syria and given the close relationship with Russia I think what I have been told seems fairly reasonable. Again many of your traditional secular groups who fear Islamist takeover are in this till the end. The Baath party and its secular pan Arab socialist teaching have been ingrained in many Syrians who simply dont like the Islamist.

[kalerab]

Not true exactly. Syrian army lost Deir ez-Zor, lost Idlib, although they retook it, lost several Damascus suburbs and it took them 3 weeks of intense shelling to retake one of it, lost much of Homs and after nearly year of fighting nothing has changed, lost most of Idlib and Aleppo countryside, including border towns like Azaz, lost Rastan and Talbisakh with Rastan being under siege for nearly half a year without any significant result, lost Qusayr, main smuggler zone for weapons from Bekka valley, strategic town. And many more. Despite being strategic locations and despite being under attack for months, Syrian army regained control only over few of them.

[utelore]

Well Deir ez-zor was not lost. They quit setting up check points in the city. There is no real need to occupy a urban environment for a extended period of time that has a huge amount of hostile forces. The Syrian army is located in fire bases around the city and strong points inside the city. At Any time the Syrian army could mount a operation to expel the rebel forces. Deir ez-zor is considered a back water town and the main issue is the oil in that area which is well under government control.

There is actually a method to the counter insurgency operation the Syrian army is using in letting the rebels gain control of certain areas. I believe you will start to see the Syrian army regain control of many areas. From what I am understanding for the past year much of the Army has been restructured and consolidated to enhance operational readiness and to prevent mixing of troops that may not be loyal to the government.

For instance about 15 special forces regiments have been consolidated into 2 operational divisions that are actually mixed with attached tank regiments. While they are loosing thousands of Sunni conscripts they are gaining manpower for former Alawite army members on reserve status. These are forming new units that are starting to come on line. There are several camps and bases in the west along the coast that are literately creating new units which are a hybrid of attached heavy weapons units with militia. Ther Intelligence directorates are also forming their own response units that are taking crash MOUNT training from Russian advisers.

go to wikimaps and activate the military option and you will be able to see the extensive infrastructure that is in place especially to the south west of the capital. This will give you a sense of just how large the military capacity of the Syrian army is.

[kalerab]

Deir ez-Zor is being shelled and fought for for last several weeks. What sources from town reported to agencies such as R*euters is that several outskirts, including military airport are in army hands while core of the city is in rebel hands. Also a backwater city? It is main city of the region where are located sunni tribes with tribial connections to Iraqi sunni trades, making is strong logistical route for weapons and ammo. Oil is in current situation useless as Syria cannot export it.

I am pretty sure that shelling districts for several months from FOB without moving your infantry to urban zones is not considered to be proper COIN strategy. IDK about restructuralization, you may be right. Effects remains to be seen, however. Point is that at the beginning of this year, rebels controlled only Baba Amr. Now they do not contorl it, but they control Old Homs, Khalidiya, Hamidiya and several other districts. It hardly looks like an army is advancing.

Also vital point is that many Alawites are creating their own militias. That adds to strenght of Syrian army as well, but creates a load of problems for Assad. They may be on his side, but they are not controlled.

[utelore]

Yes, Assad controls little to nothing. You have to understand the real power in Syria is with the Alawite warrior class. The Generals are calling the shots now and Assad has very little say in what goes on. His younger brother might actually have much more power. For many many years sense the french were in charge they used the alawite warrior clans as the army. Those hill people in the western coastal regions had become the mainstay of the army. The alawites have a very long tradition of being very good warriors along with the Maronite Christians.

Then you have a very secular class of Sunnis who do not want to have a harsh form of pious Islam forced on them which would also force a change to Islamic style banking. Its really what the lesser of two evils you are rooting for. A corrupt but secular dictatorship or Islamic fundamentalism. Many Many have been oppressed by Assad and the Baath party but at the same time many have flourished with vast Suburbs of villas and high standard of living that is all going to be ripped from them if the Islamist come to power.

On the point of what the rebels controlled Yes they appear to control more now than earlier but they were actually in these areas sense the start but the government was not cracking down as much. There was a great concern about the mixing of units which would have been fine fighting the Israelis but not each-other. So, You have seen a period of restructuring the army that can deal with what is going on. Much of what Assad says is actually true with outside forces playing games in his country because of his relationship with Iran.

I think allot of this is about protecting the $$dollar$$ and the bankers trying to protect it and keep it backed in oil. Iran is no threat militarily but removing the petro-dollar is.