Really? Do you really believe that the Israeli political-military leadership has the intelligence and foresight of a typical 15 y.o. boy?Originally Posted by StateMachine
Not to start a sh*tstorm, as I respect your opinion, but it's a bit more complex than the standard 24/7 News talking point of: a Nuclear Iran means WW3. Therefore, we (US and Israel) need to prevent Iran from obtaining a weapon, even at the cost of full scale war, and occupation.
The US has been at war for far too long, and personally, I don't think "disarming" Iran is worth losing any US service members over.
See what I mean...
A nuclear Iran has far reaching implications which of course don't necessarily mean "OMG WW3!!!11".
However these implications are a concern for many and among them is the U.S.
Is it worth losing American lives over? Well I guess that's for your country's leadership to decide.
I agree that a Nuclear Iran will have implications, that will affect US interests, as well as our allies. However, A nuclear armed Pakistan, or a nuclear armed North Korea represent similar threats to US interests, and global security as a whole.
The idea of attacking Iran has been floating around since the 80s. There are, and always were ulterior motives for attacking Iran, plain and simple.
I think that comparing Iran to North Korea and Pakistan is problematic when considering the geopolitics involved.
And indeed putting a stop to Iran's nuclear program doesn't just stem from an altruistic motive of preventing nuclear proliferation and that's probably the key point in this matter and why it is so relevant to the U.S.
You're right. The DPRK and Pakistan have neighbors, able to keep them, "in check". The problem with Iran, is that the US led coalition deposed the neighbor who kept Iran "in check". Which now makes Iran the primary OpFor nation, to Israel, and Saudi Arabia. I'm not convinced this was a mere oversight when the US committed to Iraq.
I agree that a nuclear Iran does not necessarily herald WWIII, but it does make the world less secure and stable. Obama and Romney agree on the destabilizing effect of a nuclear Iran. So, it can safely be said that a nuclear Iran is not in the national security interest of the US, as well as many other nations, including most countries in the ME and Europe.
The bag-of-tricks available to the US and Israel and other countries is not limited to just an overt military strike, as Stuxnet demonstrates.
Still, at some point, perhaps some very difficult decisions will need to be made in regards to an overt military strike.
I guess my opinion is that if Israel considers Iran a clear and present danger to it's existence, then Israel has the sovereign right, and ability to defend itself. I just don't think the United States should be directly involved. As I said, we've been at war for a decade. We don't really have financial, military or political capital to spend on another war.
I sincerely doubt a war with Iran will be of the same nature as the war in Iraq and Afghanistan (i.e boots on the ground) though it would potentially be a lot riskier in many ways.
I think Israel will if the proper conditions arise. However the specific scenario being discussed (preemptive interdiction) is not just a matter of do or die. What happens the day after is a very important consideration.
So, I also think that one of a number of factors that stays Israel's hand is the inevitable fallout or blowback of such an action, including consequences to the US.
Nice story or as some would say wishful thinking
Nope, technically speaking if we withdrew from the Middle East and wasnt the ultimate guarantor of Israeli national security then no.
The era of US isolationism ended some 100 years ago, never ever to return.
Until there is an alternative to fossil fuels, there is no contemplating, technical or otherwise, a US withdrawal from the ME. And, even then, a withdrawal would be unlikely for a host of other geo-strategic reasons.
Israel is just a component of the overall relationship or conflict between a rising hegemonic power (Iran) and other existing powers (the US and others) in the ME.
Not a big fan of foreign aid huh?
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