Reply With Quote#3 will remain until either #1 or #2 become more likely.
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The Future of Israel: Two well-argued views
The first view is argued by John Mearsheimer: http://www.thejerusalemfund.org/ht/d...etails/i/10418
He sees three possible routes for Israel's future:
1) A two-state solution (unlikely due to internal Israeli politics, Palestinian intransigence and the possibility of the civil war with the settlers).
2) Expulsion of the Palestinian population (highly unlikely due to being completely immoral).
3) A continuation of the status quo, with the PA holding on to the A and B areas while Israel expands settlements.
He views #3 as most likely, but argues that it will eventually prove disastrous for Israel for several reasons:
1) The Jewish diaspora is becoming less religious, while Israelis are on average becoming more religious. This will further rend the growing rift between Israel and the diaspora.
2) The diaspora, strongly committed to human rights and mostly living in countries free of antisemitism (in other words, America) will become less willing to defend Israel.
3) The Internet allows news from the Palestinian Territories to be disseminated as never before. This will slowly change world opinion.
3) International pressure will eventually force Israel to grant Israeli citizenship to the Palestinian population of the occupied territories. This will cause Israel to eventually lose its identity as a Jewish state and become a bi-national state.
The second is argued by Walter Russell Mead: http://blogs.the-american-interest.c...itical-impact/
Mead focuses instead on Israel's growing energy production sector. The world is just now realizing that Israel may have huge offshore reserves of natural gas as well as the world's third largest reserves of shale oil (after the USA and China). Combined, this could put Israel in the neighborhood of Saudi Arabia in terms of energy reserves.
What this could lead to is a decline in the influence of the Arab world and an increase in Israeli influence. Other countries will be more than willing to overlook the Palestinian question, just as they overlook issues with the Saudi human rights record today.
This may have already begun. Last month Vladimir Putin visited the Western Wall and declared that "Here, we see how the Jewish past is etched into the stones of Jerusalem" and "I came here to pray that the Temple should be rebuilt."
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Who is right? I have no idea. But I do know two things: The settlements aren't going anywhere, and producing a product that people vitally need gets you respect.
Also, Mearsheimer fails to address the possibility that further pro-Palestinian activism could backfire by causing an increase in antisemitism amongst the American left, creating more sympathy for Israel and less for the Palestinians. However, traditional strongholds of support for Israel amongst the American public (such as leftist Jews and evangelical Christians) are clearly seeing an erosion in support.
#3 will remain until either #1 or #2 become more likely.
Mearsheimer is a fool, I wouldn't take anything he say without a grain of salt...
Warder
Please document your claim.Originally Posted by [WDW]Megaraptor
He is biased and has an agenda, so yes, anything he says on the subject is suspect.
pffffftInternational pressure will eventually force Israel to grant Israeli citizenship to the Palestinian population of the occupied territories. This will cause Israel to eventually lose its identity as a Jewish state and become a bi-national state.
If he thinks that's a possibility he has no idea what he's talking about.
People I know. Mostly the younger ones.
pffffft
If he thinks that's a possibility he has no idea what he's talking about.
It will take a long time, yes, but do you really think that wont happened? National pride aside
No, imho it will never happen becouse muslims will never allow themselves to share power in Israel, one way or another it will come to war.
It has nothing to do with national pride, Israel may do a lot of things due to international pressure, most likely saying goodbye to the West Bank eventually, but this is about as likely as Israel setting off nuclear bombs in all of it's cities.
It has nothing to do with time and this goes beyond politics and national pride.
If in over 60 years of conflict Israel hasn't bowed down to Arab military and diplomatic efforts to have it destroyed then what makes you think this will happen in the future?
This is even less likely to happen now than it did 20 years ago since the Palestinians have their own autonomy both in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.
Granting Palestinians an Israeli citizenship means disregarding a whole series of international accords and resolutions.
Mearsheimer said or wrote something? Not interested.
What he said.
Do you think Palestinians will ever accept a state with less than the '67 borders?
For that matter, do you think Palestinians will ever accept a state on the '67 borders?
Everyone knows that even a state on the '67 borders or close to them would be an economic basket case totally dependent on Israel.
They wont accept a state on nothing less than pre-47 borders, Oslo made that clear.
Fair enough. I was wondering if you were aware of some statistical evidence.
BTW, my experience (and I am likely engaging with an older more conservative social group of people) is just the opposite, as I am amazed at what I can only describe as a general "philo-Israel" sentiment, Very rare that I personally encounter anti-Israel animus or even criticism of Israel on a personal/social level.
Agree.
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