Uganda's Yoweri Museveni warns of Ebola threat

[Ought Six]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-19048998

Mr Museveni said seven doctors and 13 health workers at Mulago hospital - the main referral hospital in Kampala - were in quarantine after "at least one or two cases" were taken there from Kibaale district, about 170km (100 miles) west of Kampala.

Ebola loose in an African capital city with a population of over a million people has utterly disastrous potential.

[Mordoror]

^^^^

Great
I hope that CDC and Institut Pasteur teams are on the way and containment SOPs are up to date.
Anyway remember that incubation time is pretty short, the virus is not airborne and transmission process is not the best (from a spreading pov)
Low risk of large outbreak but still could get ugly

[Flagg]

I'm no epidemiologist, but I would think the chance of Ebola making it into the west is pretty low since this disease seems to burn so fast.

I'd be far more concerned if it was a far slower incubation period(weeks instead of hours to days) but with the same insanely high mortality rate.

Personally, I reckon the biggest threat the average person in the west faces(beyond the current financial/economic threat) in terms of life "game changers" is some sort of pandemic/epidemic.

The 1918 pandemic had a mortality rate of only 2.5%....I reckon with how the Just In Time world works and taking into account modern medicine that could see mortality drop to something like even less than 1%(in the wealthy west) would still cause a whole lotta disruption.

Not "Living Dead" zombie kind of disruption........more like a serious kick in the head and/or kick in the junk when many are already on their knees economically/financially.

But back to the Ebola thingie.....I could imagine this virus hitting a large urban centre in Central Africa like Congo getting pretty nasty......real nasty.....but I'd think the chances of it hitting the west would still be somewhat remote.

[Ought Six]

I am not worried about it making it to the west. I am just worried about a possible panic spreading the disease in Kampala, and possibly to neighboring areas.

So far as a "game changer", if a deadly hemmoragic fever like Ebola or Marberg went pnuemonic....

[Trigger]

Ebola has made it to the U.S. already. The strain was called Ebola Reston (Reston Virgina) but fortunately it was only deadly to monkeys. Occurred in the early to mid 90s IIRC.
Read The Hot Zone (1994) by Richard Preston for details.

[Mordoror]

I'd be far more concerned if it was a far slower incubation period(weeks instead of hours to days) but with the same insanely high mortality rate.

Oh it is already the case
Incubation time varies from 2 to 21 days (with an average of 5 to 12 days)
In fact it increases with each passing virus generation (patient 0 -> patient 1 -> patient 2)
In the same time however the virus virulence decreases (90% of lethality -> 80% -> 70-> 60% etc)

So far as a "game changer", if a deadly hemmoragic fever like Ebola or Marberg went pnuemonic....

It is seemingly the case with pigs. While still not strictly airborne like flu, it can be spread through nasal/pulmonary/mouth secretions (like strong sneezing)

http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/releases/225149.php

[twinblade]

http://edition.cnn.com/2012/08/03/he...rus/index.html

Kagadi, Uganda (CNN) -- One of five prisoners receiving treatment for a suspected case of Ebola virus in Uganda escaped overnight Friday from the hospital at the center of the outbreak, a health official said.
"Should his results come back and he is positive, that causes us a lot of worry. So right now, we have resolved that the remaining prisoners will be cuffed on the beds for fear that they might also escape," said Dr. Jackson Amune, commissioner at the Ministry of Health.

[Ought Six]

http://www.who.int/csr/don/2012_08_18/en/index.html

17 August 2012 - On 17 August 2012, the Ministry of Health (MoH) of the Democratic Republic of Congo notified the World Health Organization (WHO) of an outbreak of Ebola Haemorrhagic fever in the Isiro and Dungu Health Zones of Province Orientale in Eastern DRC. A total of 10 suspected cases (9 in Isiro and 1 in Dungu) and 6 deaths (5 deaths in Isiro and 1 in Dungu) have been reported.

Laboratory investigations conducted at the Uganda Virus Research Institute (UVRI), Entebbe, Uganda, confirmed Ebola virus (Bundibugyo species). Three samples taken from two patients turned out positive for Ebola. A National Task Force convened by the Congolese Ministry of Health, is working with several partners including WHO, MSF and CDC. A joint MoH, WHO and MSF emergency response team are in the field to conduct a detailed epidemiological investigation and case management.

WHO is supporting the Ministry of Health in the areas of coordination, surveillance, epidemiology, laboratory, case management, logistics for outbreak, public information and social mobilization. An additional team of experts from Congo, DRC and IST/Gabon comprised of an epidemiologist, a logistician, an anthropologist and social mobilisation officers are being mobilized for possible deployment in the field. Control activities that are being carried include active case finding and contact tracing, enhanced surveillance, case management, public information and social mobilization and reinforcing infection control practices.

WHO does not recommend that any travel or trade restrictions be applied to Democratic Republic of Congo.

The outbreak in the Congo is the same strain as the one in Uganda.

[Dinges]

There have been outbreaks previously in the area. In '76 there were two outbreaks in the Zaire and Sudan numbering more than 500 cases.

Then in '95 there was another outbreak in the city of Kikwit in the DRC with 211 cases with 78% mortality. Current pop. close to 300K.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kikwit