Alternate History - "What if France had continued the war in 1940" series of books

[TheKiwi]

So you do think they'd be stupid enough to try an uprising under those cirumstances? Even though they didn't with the much weaker Vichy forces present in our timeline?

EDIT: And I don't know where you got the idea that I thought they weren't resenting French rule? Can you quote that bit?

As for supplies, the French gold reserves had been shipped to Canada. Thus they can purchase from the US and Canada as much grain (and perhaps even shudder Californian wine) as is necessary as well as pay for the US made weapons that the UK ended up paying for instead.

[KoTeMoRe]

So you do think they'd be stupid enough to try an uprising under those cirumstances? Even though they didn't with the much weaker Vichy forces present in our timeline?

As for supplies, the French gold reserves had been shipped to Canada. Thus they can purchase from the US and Canada as much grain (and perhaps even shudder Californian wine) as is necessary as well as pay for the US made weapons that the UK ended up paying for instead.

You actually did not get the point. Algeria was a export heavy region. They were primarily sending their products in France. They had no problem with producing wine, they had a problem selling it if cut from France. The droughts cost Algerians a lot. Now would they try something? They tried arguably when they were outmatched in 1954 I do not see why they would not try during a French Debacle with a great deal of power struggle and purges going on within the French establishment. Do not forget, if you are Algerian and already accustomed to about a million Europeans, seeing another million or so of soldiers coming your way, that might change the things a little.

[TheKiwi]

How is the FFO "debacle" worse than the Vichy one that would make an uprising more likely? I think it is you is who is missing the point. If they didn't try in our timeline, please explain why they would do so in this one? Please at least grant their leaders a modicum of intelligence to be able to see that it's going to fail badly.

Exports of wine aside (and no doubt there were other area's of the world wringing their hands at being unable to export to their traditional markets), we've dealt with the need for grain and other supplies.

[KoTeMoRe]

It is not worse, but capitulation meant Algeria would be spared the bombings and the fighting that might follow a French retreat...Given how the French collapsed during Torch, one could see the possibility of that if the French were to be confronted by the Germans.

Their leaders asked for Independence pretty much since the 1930s.

Then again, bear in mind this is a what if, until now I sense you are going in a surprisingly optimist sense, ignoring the political, social and organisational challenges faced by the French.

[TheKiwi]

Confronted and bombed and fighting the Germans?!? How exactly. The very same limitations that prevented Operation Sea Lion from ever being a reality prevent any German action against Algeria except via their Italian proxy and only for so long as Italian Africa lasts (ie a very short period of time). At best they could send limited numbers of bombers in that direction - assuming that is that the Germans chose not to waste them on boming the UK. With an allied French fleet there is no way for Italy/Germany to re-inforce Libya. The only delays in it's occupation are going to be breakdowns of allied vehicles as they drive there.

It seems to me that it is you who is the optimist in seeing the challenges that any kind of uprising would face. I don't subscribe to the stereotype of "dumb Arabs, too stupid to know when to attack" which is what you seem to be doing.

[KoTeMoRe]

Confronted and bombed and fighting the Germans?!? How exactly. The very same limitations that prevented Operation Sea Lion from ever being a reality prevent any German action against Algeria except via their Italian proxy and only for so long as Italian Africa lasts (ie a very short period of time). At best they could send limited numbers of bombers in that direction - assuming that is that the Germans chose not to waste them on boming the UK. With an allied French fleet there is no way for Italy/Germany to re-inforce Libya. The only delays in it's occupation are going to be breakdowns of allied vehicles as they drive there.

It seems to me that it is you who is the optimist in seeing the challenges that any kind of uprising would face. I don't subscribe to the stereotype of "dumb Arabs, too stupid to know when to attack" which is what you seem to be doing.

There is nothing dumb into that idea. To the contrary. It is a possibility.
Are you actually comparing the Battle of Britain to what ever the French would have gotten in Algeria to defend it from the Germans? Furthermore, the issue is this leaving the French open would mean two different foes to fight on and potential unrest in France. Therefore rendering unpraticable any attempt at GB. When comparing Algeria, with Great Britain, one of the two tasks looks by far more achievable.

[TheKiwi]

Yes, the one doesn't require you to ship your troops over hostile seas for 100's of kilometers. Seas totally dominated by your enemy. The one where your aircraft can be over enemy territory in 20 minutes, not 2 hours and where you can have escorting fighters. Invading Algeria from anywhere other than a neighbouring country is nothing but fevered Nazi masturbatory fantasy.

The Italian armistice comittee that examined French forces in North Africa following the surrender of 1940 found over 2000 aircraft there, many of them modern models. If you are relocating your government as a deliberate move, aircraft are far and away the easiest assets to give orders to be relocated, followed by ships.

[KoTeMoRe]

Yes, the one doesn't require you to ship your troops over hostile seas for 100's of kilometers. Seas totally dominated by your enemy. The one where your aircraft can be over enemy territory in 20 minutes, not 2 hours and where you can have escorting fighters. Invading Algeria from anywhere other than a neighbouring country is nothing but fevered Nazi masturbatory fantasy.

The Italian armistice comittee that examined French forces in North Africa following the surrender of 1940 found over 2000 aircraft there, many of them modern models. If you are relocating your government as a deliberate move, aircraft are far and away the easiest assets to give orders to be relocated, followed by ships.

That seems a gross overestimation, when French sources claim about 700 in North Africa. And really many of them modern...would be a stretch. Most of the aircraft that attempted to leave France for North Africa did not have the autonomy to reach it. Totally dominated by your enemy, would be a stretch as well.

Hopping from Sicily to Tunis, or from Sardinia to the Constantine Area looks far more feasible than engaging the RAF.

[TheKiwi]

I'll look up numbers when I get home, but yes a lot of aircraft including DW520 fighters ended up in North Africa. (Which by the way had a one way flight range of 1200+ km, more than enough to reach Algiers from Marseilles. Even the MS-406 which was more than good enough to shoot down bombers had a 1000km range).

Yes, the Med with both the RN and MN roaming it is an allied lake. You will note that the RM didn't come out to challenge them during the brief Italian participation against France. Even when it was "just" the RN vs the RM, the RM still mostly stayed in port - not helped by shortages of fuel. Take into account ULTRA intelligence (of the like that fortold the Crete airborne operation) and yes any attempt to reinforce/invade across the Med is doomed to seeing a lot of floating Axis corpses.

[KoTeMoRe]

Officially there were 850 planes of all sorts in AFN. SHAA,Histoire de l’aviation militaire. L’armée de l’Air 1928-1981, Paris-Limoges, Lavauzelle, 1981

« L’armée d’Afrique : armée de transition pour une grande revanche ? 1940-1942 »,
Christine Lévisse-Touzé, dans Revue Historique des Armées n° 3, 1992 « Renaissance des
armées après 1942 », Service historique de la Défense, septembre 1992

Has a total of about 280 american planes in SKD condition.

[TheKiwi]

The Italian Armistice Control Comission found 2648 French aircraft in North Africa, of which 700 were fighters and (their words) "many new".

At the time of the armistice, there were still over 4200 French aircraft in service of the French state in the unoccupied areas. Of these, at least 1700 were suitable for front line service. Assuming that the French government moves to Algiers, a great many of these aircraft could have followed.

As any theoretical German or Italian bombers seeking to attack French Africa would have been operating well beyond the range of their escorts, losses would have been heavy. Especially when you consider that French fighters (unlike the RAF ones) were equipped with 20mm canons, ideal for shreding bombers.

[fork1]

It is not worse, but capitulation meant Algeria would be spared the bombings and the fighting that might follow a French retreat...Given how the French collapsed during Torch, one could see the possibility of that if the French were to be confronted by the Germans.

Their leaders asked for Independence pretty much since the 1930s.

Then again, bear in mind this is a what if, until now I sense you are going in a surprisingly optimist sense, ignoring the political, social and organisational challenges faced by the French.

You can't really use it as a comparison. The french mood in northern africa was weird at the time. Some idiots like Noguès were still loyal to Vichy, while others were welcoming the Allies. A lot of installations were
sabotaged by French resistants. Some commanders welcomed them openly as the landed.
Had the legal and legitimate governement moved to Algeria or French Marocco, the situation would have been very different, especially with the amount of troops and material that could have been evacuated.

At the time, the German had no significant presence in Northern Africa, and i dont think they would have bothered, Italian possessions would have been crushed and a temporary stalemate in the mediterranean reached :
Neither the Axis, nor the the French and British allies having enough strengh to do anything for a while (IMHO).

The only "problems" i see would have been the lack of major industrial assets and the locals.

Remember too, that France still had a quite a bit of gold to buy stuff from America and that the Casablanca harbor was open. Plus railroad tracks all the way to Tunisia, primitive but effective.