Could Pakistan Use Nukes in a Future Conflict with/in Afghanistan
The other week I ran into following speculative, quite absurd scenario. Considering the author background, I decided to bring it here. I slightly changed the title of the thread with /in. i guess that proposed scenario will be swept under the carpet but what if they use nukes in Afghanistan against indian military while being pushed deep into the territory during a massive attack. So the
might turn intoIt was early May, and the Pakistani advance into Afghanistan was stalled slightly north of Kandahar, on the road to Kabul. The terrain favoured the defender, and the Afghan National Army had been fighting well, against a hesitant Pakistani offensive.
It was early May, and the Pakistani retreat into Afghanistan was stalled slightly north of Kandahar, on the road to Kabul. The terrain favoured the attacker, and the Indian Army had been fighting well ...
Could Pakistan Use Nuclear Weapons in a Future Conflict with Afghanistan?
Keep on readingNiels Klingenberg Vistisen is currently in Afghanistan as the political advisor in the Nahr-E Saraj district, Helmand province, since May 2011. He deployed in 2010 first as a major in ISAF Joint Command, Future Operations, and following this as the Chief Governance Planner in Regional Command South West until December 2010. Besides being an Army Officer, Niels Vistisen holds a masters degree in military history.
I very much doubt they'd use their "ultimate defense against India" on something so small and tactical. Not only are they needed to "keep India from bossing us around", but they're also very expensive - especially to a country with an economy as fecked up as Pakistan's.
I'd agree......I don't see Pakistan ever using nukes in Afghanistan...as you said they are too valuable.Originally Posted by TheKiwi
What I can see is Pakistan shifting it's nuclear muscle around.
As foreign fighters seem to be shifting around from the last war to the next war(on to Syria now), maybe Pakistan will do some shifting of it's own.
As Afghanistan comes off the boil, Pakistan's influence/control over Afghanistan becomes less relevant, and the revenue stream of aid/tariff turns off, Pakistan will be desperately seeking to fill that significant drop in revenue.
I am really interested to know how Pakistan IS or WILL try to insert itself into the "Nuclear Iran" conversation.
Surely Pakistan will be trying to leverage it's long standing and complex relationship with Saudi Arabia to possibly offer it's nuclear capability for lease to the kingdom.
Pakistan has seconded or facilitated substantial numbers of it's armed forces to serve on behalf of the Saudi royal family in the past, and the Saudis have drenched the Pakistanis in petro dollars...which could also possibly include a quiet agreement regarding a turnkey nuclear deterrent agreement.
Isn't it possible the Pakistanis could whore themselves out to the Saudi royal family by leasing a nuclear armed IRBM regiment?
Not only could it provide a substantial revenue stream for Pakistan, but it could provide a means for Pakistan to retain regional relevancy and domestic prestige as Afghanistan reduces in geopolitical focus and status.
That's what I'd be doing if I was running Pakistan and suffering from small man/country syndrome.
why would pakistan use nukes in Afghanistan ? the relationship between the two is not that bad
Using nukes against dispersed hostile forces who often operate in small groups and in the mountain terrain? I think it's like trying to kill fleas on your dog by using hammer...
This is pakistan
It is not about COIN, it is scenario about possible large scale conflit in the future between two nations.
Although I somehow respect your point of view I would rather hear some inputs about the ability of your forces. How far and fast are they able to advance while launching the full scale coventional attack against Pakistan?
Does Afghan army have any capabilities for large-scale conventional conflict? No. It is (and was) built for COIN only, so it will be used with insurgency-style in every clash with other nation. Even if it will try to perform something like conventional war with using large troops detachments - how will they move them in such rugged terrain? Operating with full-scale ragiments using trucks, APCs, tanks together with heavy artillery detachments is a logistic nightmare there which will immediately cause terrible casualties. Even soviet army started to use battalion-size (max) forces only because it was too difficult to move entire regiments or divisions during any battle operation. So imagine how effective will be nuke strike on the armed forces which uses some small detachments across rugged mountainous terrain? I'd say it will have only psychologic effect but not military. Destroying a couple of battalions max with nuke is not something cost-effective at all.
P.S. I don't think any nuke will be used anywhere ever. Nowdays the territory with its resources is very valuable thing. Nobody wants it to become lifeless polluted wasteland. There's too much of them already.
Last edited by [64]Lynx; 09-14-2012 at 08:32 AM. Reason: spelling
Not yet, but hey, we are talking scenario.
Afghanistan is not 100% rugged terrain. That particular scenario is considering the areas around Kandahar. Have you ever been there?
Why not. Using nukes at Tora Bora in 2001, allegedly considered, would have solve a thing or two.
What about JDAM or GBU on an illiterate man with AK-47? It is not just about the budget.
I would not be so optimistic.
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